Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[Perados]

and besite the greek protests italy could place bonds for 8.5 billion€ by 2.23%...
So it looks like the markets trust the italien reforms. Now italy has to start with the reforms for the employee market. Thats the hardest part.

Also it looks like the ecb will start a second cheape credit offer to the ez banks in april. The fed and bofe another QE in fall...

 

[eurotop40]

Moody's puts Britain on negative credit outlook - Telegraph

Höchste Zeit!

 

[Drifterwood]

These guys are professionals.

This is correct. It was the same for the earlier riots and it will be the same for the next round. However, you have to consider why they exist in Greece and whether the level of political and State corruption has given rise to their numbers.

 

[Drifterwood]

Moody's puts Britain on negative credit outlook - Telegraph

Höchste Zeit!

Would it be, without the European problems?

 

[eurotop40]

Would it be, without the European problems?

Did you understand the meaning of this expression?

 

[B_BimBob]

high time - so what ? Gordon (wanker) Brown saw to it that our economy was well & truly fucked up before he left office

you had to be from the german speaking swiss area with an attitude like yours - patronising, arrogant - parochial even.

get a life - moron

 

[eurotop40]

high time - so what ? Gordon (wanker) Brown saw to it that our economy was well & truly fucked up before he left office

you had to be from the german speaking swiss area with an attitude like yours - patronising, arrogant - parochial even.

get a life - moron

Hopefully Moody's & co. will recognize the enormous debt of the UK that London is trying to even out only by gambling and betting against the Euro, not by reforming the pathetic economy that has nowadays little primary and secondary sector thanks to Maggie.
As for what concerns arrogance I think most Anglo guys on this thread don't need any tutoring.

 

[Drifterwood]

Did you understand the meaning of this expression?

Yes. Are you going to offer an opinion?

 

[B_BimBob]

If we had another Maggie in charge mon ami - we wouldn't be in this type of situation. More balls than anything that went before her or after for that matter. It's a great pity we will not see the likes of her for a long time.

Your petty attitude smacks very much of the 'Common Purposites' that are now creeping out of the woodwork like woodlice ( & should be stamped on at every opportunity !).

 

[Jason]

It is negative OUTLOOK not negative WATCH, but of course the UK would be better without it. In view of the EZ mess it is hard to see how the UK can escape such reports, and I expect worse.

The Greek deal is of course still not done. We still don't have a sign off on the private sector write downs. This is a default and IMO should be called a default and the CDS insurance should pay out. But it seems that the EZ is pushing for a voluntary credit event which won't pay CDS - and in effect invalidates CDS insurance. If you can't insure dodgy euro debt then the yield on that debt must go up.

This is no technical quibble but a fundamental of the risks and prices of EZ debt. There are arguments that CDS should't exist - certainly not naked CDS - but removing CDS at a stroke would be traumatic to markets.

 

[dandelion]

Greece is the example of the result of the euro project. Had Greece remained on the drachma this would not have happened.

I dont believe that. Greece had a lousy economic position before it joined the euro. It had to lie about it to be allowed to join. you know that. They would still have borrowed up to the hilt. The bank crash would still have hit them just as hard. They would now be in default.

as the social problems spread - as I think they must - we're looking at half the EZ suffering for project euro.

There are quite a few people now trying to blame the currenct economic situation on the euro. This is simply trying to find a scapegoat, and serve various anti-eu agendas. The nature of the world economic system is that it is downright unstable and most of the major players have little or no interest in trying to keep it stable. There is a spreading collapse: banks worlwide collapsed. Governments took on their debts without any means to pay them. The debts are falling due.

Faced with similar circumstances, who wouldn't be in the streets?

The situation faced by Greeks is that they have been lied to sysytematically by their major political parties for decades. What is happening now is no more than discovering the truth that successive governments have been paying people off with borrowed money. So yes, not surprising that people are upset. However the only resolution is to get past the anger and rioting and decide what to do. This does not necessarily mean leaving the euro. It does necessarily mean accepting a lower standard of living. It does necessarily mean writing off debts one way or another.

This is the Greek tragedy. ... now they really cannot float a currency - it would sink without trace....

They then need to shift to a coupon which is pegged to another currency..

Curates egg...good in parts. I see you have come round to the idea they cannot create a useable currency, but then you suggest they create a currency and call it something different. A currency could be imposed on Greek citizens but when the rest of the world refuses to accept it, there is nothing whatsoever the greek government could do. The euro remains a useful and valuable means of exchange exactly because it is not tied to the fate of the greek economy. They still do have a functional currency. Leaving the euro would be to press (another) self-destruct button.

 

[dandelion]

Did you understand the meaning of this expression?

I didnt. did you mean it to be understood, was that why you used german?

Perados, clearly you have to make an effort to be posting here in English. thank you for that.

Hopefully Moody's & co. will recognize the enormous debt of the UK that London is trying to even out only by gambling and betting against the Euro, not by reforming the pathetic economy that has nowadays little primary and secondary sector thanks to Maggie.

Maggie - and the conservative party because she was simply the figurhead - overreacted on ruthless reforms of manufacturing industry. British manufacturing had been in decline for 100 years. This was a sort of turning point were the policy of subsidisation was abandoned. I think - and others are now agreeing - this went too far, because it is just as bad a sin to refuse to help growing industries as it is to eternally support failed ones. It is easy to understand why people might take Jason's view, why the government might look at its accounts and see where so much of the tax revenue is coming from. But it must nonetheless reign back the banking sector. They have sacked 500,000 people since the crash. Thats 500,000 people they were over-manned. 500,000 people doing nothing being paid well by us. This process must go on, just as Maggie required it of the manufacturing sector.

 

[Jason]

meanwhile Germany delays. Is Germany going to refuse the bailout?

We might soon be seeing the the consequences of leaving the euro. If it is a hard default at the wrong time - which it may well be - then Greece will struggle to issue a currency. It might try anyway (as Georgia did when it left the rouble) but I think it would have to peg to a foreign currency. International transactions would be in foreign currencies. The exchange between the coupon issued and foreign currency would be a central bank monopoly.

The bank problems have certainly hit Greece and others - the euro has prevented a solution being found. Greece has needed years of devaluation. This would have boosted its exports and tourism and got the economy moving.

 

[798686]

Is there any way Greece could default within the eurozone - and then they can keep up the idea that the euro is an irrevocable currency, to stop an inevitable unravelling if Greece defaults and leaves (followed by Portugal and Ireland)?

Or...would this just mean despite defaulting they couldn't return to prosperity, due to the lack of means to devalue?

 

[B_BimBob]

If they have any sense - they will all default - get back to their own currencies and control of their own destinies with no one else to blame.

Serves the power greedy EU State brokers right for pushing the concept way too far by admitting countries that clearly had no chance of meeting the conditions required in the first place. It could never work and hasn't

Let the Germans pick up the pieces which they fully deserve

 

[Jason]

Is there any way Greece could default within the eurozone - and then they can keep up the idea that the euro is an irrevocable currency, to stop an inevitable unravelling if Greece defaults and leaves (followed by Portugal and Ireland)?

Or...would this just mean despite defaulting they couldn't return to prosperity, due to the lack of means to devalue?

There's two sorts of problems with the idea of default within the euro.

1) legal. The starting point has to be that the treaties governing the euro are of a complexity where even the lawyers don't understand what they mean. But many (most?) think that a country that defualts EITHER must leave in order to default OR is instantly expelled. The Troika seem to think this, hence their determination to get a 70% default termed a voluntary credit event. I don't think a 100% default for 100% of creditors - what we are now looking at - could be termed a voluntary credit event - but Brussels-speak is a truly remarkable language.

2) practical. Every year Greece spends 10% or so more than it collects, and that is ignoring the debts. So even with the debts written off Greece is going to be running up new debts very quickly. The solution within the euro is all the austerity promised must be delivered, then more because the economy will contract (it is contracting by around 7%pa). I suppose it would be possible to legislate for higher taxes and further cut expenditure, but to work strikes would have to be made illegal. It would be a Soviet style economy with authoritarian control.

I'm with Nigbo - they have to leave the euro. They should have done it two years ago on their own terms. I think we have to accept that Greece will need an aid programme, presumably through the UN, and there are both ethical and legal issues about who should pay. Personally I see all EZ nations as morally complicit in turning a blind eye to Greece's fabricated accounts, so my own view is that Germany should lead the donations. I hope the UK will be generous.

 

[Perados]

there is no economical reason why greece couldnt get default IN the euro. Or does anyone can name one?
So if you talk about a default, there is no reason to talk about greece has to leave the euro...
The only reason why greece cant go default is the finance industry in europe...

The only reasons for greece to leave would be political. Cause the greek politic isnt reliable

The positiv effect of an own currency would be that it would devalue. But this could also be done by reforms and cuts...

So again... There was never a question of leaving or not. But allways of can they akzept what is needed or not...


And about the point that the greeks would only stop makeing new debts if they leave the euro is nonsense...

Lets imagen they start their own currency or some kind of paper they use as a dollar equal currency.
Start asking yourself would anyone borrow greece or the greek people money to import goods that are very importent for the greek economy?
No, no one would. Instantly greece couldnt import anything... The problems they would have now would double. Now just a lots of greece lose their jobs and cause of this they maybe cant buy as mutch food as they were used to.
But if they would run a own currency EVERYONE would start to starving cause greece couldnt even import food or oil.

That means a big economy (like the ez) would have to guaranty for the new made greek debts... And in this situation we are allready. Why should we make it more difficult with the a new drachme?


Also you say cause of the reason the drachme wouldnt have mutch credibility the greeks would have to fix it to a foreighn currency, like dollar... Why dont you use the euro as an example? Cause it would show in what situation greece would be, if they follow your advise... THE SAME AS IT IS NOW
Cause to keep the same value to the dollar greece couldnt print as mutch drachme as they would need. Also if they would bind their currency to another currency the drachme wouldnt devalue...

But bouth points (devalue and print money to pay salarie and pension) are THE major plus you are offering, should greece leave.

So again you proof yourself wrong... The only thing that your argument show is that you want a end of the euro, no matter how mutch it will cost

 

[eurotop40]

...
So again you proof yourself wrong... The only thing that your argument show is that you want a end of the euro, no matter how mutch it will cost

It is obvious that British and US occult powers (you name what you like) try by all means to exploit the current debt difficulties that have NO connection whatsoever to the Euro as a currency.

In the past the same occult powers would sell opium to the Chinese to make them stupid in order to impose their supremacy. Now they want to convince the EZ that the monetary union cannot work because of the differences among the EZ countries that they foster artificially by manipulating the markets. Who are the markets? Few larger investors, larger banks etc. that are governed by few people connected by occult ties.

Jason's contributions belong to this manipulative action. It's simple as that.

 

[MichiganRico]

There's two sorts of problems with the idea of default within the euro.

1) legal. The starting point has to be that the treaties governing the euro are of a complexity where even the lawyers don't understand what they mean. But many (most?) think that a country that defualts EITHER must leave in order to default OR is instantly expelled. The Troika seem to think this, hence their determination to get a 70% default termed a voluntary credit event. I don't think a 100% default for 100% of creditors - what we are now looking at - could be termed a voluntary credit event - but Brussels-speak is a truly remarkable language.

2) practical. Every year Greece spends 10% or so more than it collects, and that is ignoring the debts. So even with the debts written off Greece is going to be running up new debts very quickly. The solution within the euro is all the austerity promised must be delivered, then more because the economy will contract (it is contracting by around 7%pa). I suppose it would be possible to legislate for higher taxes and further cut expenditure, but to work strikes would have to be made illegal. It would be a Soviet style economy with authoritarian control.

I'm with Nigbo - they have to leave the euro. They should have done it two years ago on their own terms. I think we have to accept that Greece will need an aid programme, presumably through the UN, and there are both ethical and legal issues about who should pay. Personally I see all EZ nations as morally complicit in turning a blind eye to Greece's fabricated accounts, so my own view is that Germany should lead the donations. I hope the UK will be generous.

This is absolutely the key to Greece resuming any degree of normalcy within the next decade. Its fellow Union members will need to give Greece enough funding to get its debt level to one which it can manage with a more reasonable austerity program--one that doesn't tear Greece's civil fabric apart. (The European bank write-downs are an excellent down payment.) Loans are absolutely ridiculous--Greece can NEVER repay them and it makes a critically bad situation terminal. This would happen in a second were it not for Italy, Portugal and Spain waiting in the wings with similar expectations--expectations which are beyond the funding capabilities of the EU...unless, of course, Asia comes to its rescue.

 

[Jason]

Agreed MichiganRico.

The priority IMO will be to get the aid into Greece - but there will be a massive argument about who is responsible and who will pay. I'm assuming aid will be through the UN, so it will be most of the world paying, certainly including the USA. This isn't aid for flood or drought but aid for the mess caused by a failed economic experiment in Europe. If USA has to make a financial contribution I wonder what US politicians will say about the euro experiment. And will they say to the EZ that the experiment can continue and the USA will help pick up the mess in Portugal, Spain and Italy?