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You are conflating short sharp lockdowns with the bumbled politically motivated populist lockdowns we've had in the west. Short lockdowns work to stop healthcare collapse - longer stricter lockdowns were not advocated by anyone as a potential solution to this mess, and they don't work in non-authoritarian countries due to rising social disobedience.
I think you are spot on here,
UK had months of lockdown, including our “freedom day” delayed for no reason which now seems reasonable. Months of lockdown has caused harm that we struggle to measure for very little benefit. Unfortunately as we go into the autumn there will be loud calls for another lockdown. Lockdown is now associated by many with not going to work but being paid. A very big group in UK desire lockdown. If we have a new variant which avoids the vaccines the demand for months of lockdown will become very loud indeed. The scenario of another seven month lockdown is I think not very likely but certainly possible, and it would be because of political expedience not virus control.
The endless comparison of Sweden with Norway, Finland and Denmark is not helpful. Sweden has in Stockholm and Gothenburg some of the highest population density in Europe. There is nothing remotely comparable in Norway and Finland, and Copenhagen (while a big city) cannot match the density. Better to compare Sweden with UK, Belgium, and indeed Spain and Italy. It is the dense urban areas with multi-occupant homes that are the big non-hospital spreaders of coronavirus.