Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland
- Thread starter Jason
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the univers will grow forever...
the diversity of life will grow forever...
the space between matter will grow forever...
till now, the economy grew for the last 7000 years. why should it stop? the economy grew bevor and after the roman empire and the east indian trading comapny...
this doesnt means you should stop bying things you like or could help to make ypur life easier. it also wount make you stop sending money you doesnt own (debts)... i would say you just start to spend it differently
- sbat,
The world economy as it is today has only existed since European colonial expansion hit its peak, and the world trade networks were effectively included into a single network.
If we get Taoist here for a second
smile, you are saying that the world economy, as a part of a larger whole, will persist forever because that larger whole will. I'm with you at the macro level. But any definite thing, being a fraction of the whole, is eventually subject to complete alteration, if not destruction. "Economy" is a human construct, and is dependent upon human activity - some definitions of economy are essentially that - human activity. There is only one eternal thing, and that is as you say, the macro thing, or Being itself. Human is not Being, simply a thing that comes into Being. What comes, will go. Economy comes into Being through Human. Etc Etc.Like I said, real Taoist here. Fun discussion though.
to make it less relative...
the worldeconomy will grow as long as the humanity exist.
yes pure capitalism as we define it today only exist for around 150 years... but the economy is bigger then the system we use. so we can talk about the past 7000 years of growth. - in special if you wanna talk about debts.
worldeconomy ever (not ever, but for the past 3000 years) existed, just in bigger and smaler scales
the worldeconomy will grow as long as the humanity exist.
yes pure capitalism as we define it today only exist for around 150 years... but the economy is bigger then the system we use. so we can talk about the past 7000 years of growth. - in special if you wanna talk about debts.
worldeconomy ever (not ever, but for the past 3000 years) existed, just in bigger and smaler scales
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- sbat,
That's assuming that economy will always be driven by the imperative for individuals, corporations, and governing bodies to buy things. But in the history of economies, growth (and human activity) was tied to the human ability to decrease the cost of producing one more unit of something. It is not always true that the right conditions will exist for that to happen. It's not happening today. The world economy has been shrinking for no one truly knows how many years.
Note: I'm not talking about the on-paper growth that these economists these days are talking about. So many accounting tricks are used to keep up the appearance of growth. I'm talking about Net Domestic Product, so GDP less the cost of fixing depreciation. I don't believe that the totality of the world economy today is expressing growth, if we were honest with the numbers and the formulas used to calculate growth.
on long term, the economy growht... even nowadays, even with the real data and take it seriuos :smile: yes europe. usa and japan wount grow for the next decad. but what are 10 years compared to 5000 (to be a bit taoistic :wink
every few decads we will have a recession, we have to deal with it... growht and recession switch from time to time, its a circle. you should like it :wink:
every few decads we will have a recession, we have to deal with it... growht and recession switch from time to time, its a circle. you should like it :wink:
- sbat,
on long term, the economy growht... even nowadays, even with the real data and take it seriuos :smile: yes europe. usa and japan wount grow for the next decad. but what are 10 years compared to 5000 (to be a bit taoistic :wink
every few decads we will have a recession, we have to deal with it... growht and recession switch from time to time, its a circle. you should like it :wink:
Oh, I like me some recession :smile:
Drifterwood
Superior Member
We can admire Germany for the cohesiveness of their society in reunification, in repositioning their labour market for the Euro and the stability and long term management of their middle sector. However, should we look down on those countries which have failed to do this and should we believe for one moment that Germany did this for any altruism over Europeanism?
Germany has been successful in Germany's own interest, albeit that they still borrow too much, but we shouldn't worry that they will address this.
There are two problems with what would normally be admiration for a nation doing well; first they are part of an economic union and secondly their success is inextricably linked to the problems of other nations in that union because of the nature of the Euro. The Euro of course was not, I believe, some diabolical plot by the Germans, but being organised and realistic they have made the most of it and as a consequence the strong have become stronger and the weaker have become weaker, to the point of collapse.
The actions that Germany either takes or does not take now, will dictate the conclusions that you should draw about German policy to the European Union. Ironically though, if they realise that Eurobonds are to their advantage, because they will keep the system that has served them so well, going, then perhaps the fog will remain. If they let the weak fall and fail, then there can be little doubt.
There remains the problem that has plagued Europe, namely that the strong get stronger and the weaker get relatively weaker. The whole point about a United Europe was that we would have a system that managed this, but clearly we don't.
If I was sitting in Greece, for all the faults, I would be wondering about whether I had any self determination, or whether in reality my fate rested on decisions in the Bundesbank. Is it inevitable that I will end up working for the Germans one way or another?
Germany has been successful in Germany's own interest, albeit that they still borrow too much, but we shouldn't worry that they will address this.
There are two problems with what would normally be admiration for a nation doing well; first they are part of an economic union and secondly their success is inextricably linked to the problems of other nations in that union because of the nature of the Euro. The Euro of course was not, I believe, some diabolical plot by the Germans, but being organised and realistic they have made the most of it and as a consequence the strong have become stronger and the weaker have become weaker, to the point of collapse.
The actions that Germany either takes or does not take now, will dictate the conclusions that you should draw about German policy to the European Union. Ironically though, if they realise that Eurobonds are to their advantage, because they will keep the system that has served them so well, going, then perhaps the fog will remain. If they let the weak fall and fail, then there can be little doubt.
There remains the problem that has plagued Europe, namely that the strong get stronger and the weaker get relatively weaker. The whole point about a United Europe was that we would have a system that managed this, but clearly we don't.
If I was sitting in Greece, for all the faults, I would be wondering about whether I had any self determination, or whether in reality my fate rested on decisions in the Bundesbank. Is it inevitable that I will end up working for the Germans one way or another?
The problem at times with the Euro debt is corruption. Once it sets in, and I be talking since the second world war, it be extremley difficult to motivate a population to trust those in charge with their countries future and to persuade the local community to rally behind a cause..Truth and trust these days, sadly so, is so very hard to establish. Basically, you have no sound foundation, it becomes ever so tiresome for those in charge to convince people, for those elected to point the way to prosperity.
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And poor old Spain.
I'm also concerned by the new-found popularity of Gerry Adams, as Ireland slowly turns against austerity...
I'm also concerned by the new-found popularity of Gerry Adams, as Ireland slowly turns against austerity...
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Ireland is voting today. I'm actually pleased I don't have a vote!
It is being presented as a vote for or against austerity. Yet neither side has put forward a coherent view of a way forward. The case for austerity and for the FU only works if there are Eurobonds down the road - if there aren't the policy will certainly fail. The anti-austerity camp has not set out an alternative. The alternative for Ireland is life outside the euro, with the punt replacing the euro.
I also have major issues around Sinn Fein activities. Sinn Fein are the political party that were the supporters and apologists for terrorist murder - their activities are the direct cause of many of the atrocities of the Troubles. What we do seem to be seeing is a party which has now genuinely renounced terrorism and which has been instrumental in getting terrorists to stop killing people. It is almost a redemption story - yet I remain concerned about the safety of men who have once supported terrorism. What is truly amazing is that some in Sinn Fein are now talking of a pun with a sterling peg - and therefore the close cooperation with the UK which this implies.
The situation is interesting!
It is being presented as a vote for or against austerity. Yet neither side has put forward a coherent view of a way forward. The case for austerity and for the FU only works if there are Eurobonds down the road - if there aren't the policy will certainly fail. The anti-austerity camp has not set out an alternative. The alternative for Ireland is life outside the euro, with the punt replacing the euro.
I also have major issues around Sinn Fein activities. Sinn Fein are the political party that were the supporters and apologists for terrorist murder - their activities are the direct cause of many of the atrocities of the Troubles. What we do seem to be seeing is a party which has now genuinely renounced terrorism and which has been instrumental in getting terrorists to stop killing people. It is almost a redemption story - yet I remain concerned about the safety of men who have once supported terrorism. What is truly amazing is that some in Sinn Fein are now talking of a pun with a sterling peg - and therefore the close cooperation with the UK which this implies.
The situation is interesting!
And poor old Spain.
I'm also concerned by the new-found popularity of Gerry Adams, as Ireland slowly turns against austerity...
Olay!! Yep, still living in the past. Generational problems inhibit progress. They always will.
LuciferChild
Experimental Member
to be honest i dont know why ireland needs to vote on something that could be decided by government they were elected for that, the country is under austerity so what choice people have? none....this just delay the process.
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"(Reuters) - Spain's deteriorating economy has made Portugal's job of riding out its debt crisis harder as its main trading partner slides into recession and the threat of contagion across the Iberian peninsula intensifies.
Portugal has seen relatively positive news in recent weeks, with bond yields falling and the country winning strong marks from official lenders to its 78-billion-euro bailout.
But as the euro zone debt crisis flares up again after several months of calm, this time with the epicentre in Spain, Portugal's economic challenges could increase as the worst recession in decades gives rise to sweeping austerity.
"With 20 percent of Portuguese exports going to Spain, any kind of slowdown will be aggravated this year due to the austerity measures in Spain," said Rui Barbara, asset manager at Banco Carregosa. "If you eventually need external help (for Spain), you could also get contagion."
Data released on Monday showed that Spain, the euro zone's fourth largest economy, dipped back into recession in the first quarter, raising pressure on Madrid in its efforts to trim the budget deficit. Spain's troubles jumped into focus last week as Standard & Poor's downgraded the country's creditworthiness two notches to BBB+.
For Portugal, which spent much of last year fending off the negative impact of the Greek crisis, a renewal of the euro zone crisis so close to home could not have come at a worse time as the government rushes to quash concerns it will need an extension of its current bailout.
"This is bad news for Spain and bad news for Portugal," said former Finance Minister Luis Campos e Cunha, referring to the downgrade of Spanish debt. "In fact, it all points to there being an extension of the bailout agreement for Portugal."
Portuguese bond yields have fallen in recent weeks but the country remains the second-most risky euro zone member after Greece, in terms of bond spreads. Portugal was the third euro zone country to seek a bailout, after Greece and Ireland.
Portugal's government has repeatedly denied it needs more money or more time to meet the goals of its bailout, which currently envisage its return to raising finance in bond markets in the third quarter of next year. The government is adamant about meeting tough fiscal goals, which it has done so far.
DEEPEST RECESSION SINCE 1970S
The economy is expected to shrink 3.3 percent this year - the biggest slowdown since the 1970s - and return to slight growth of 0.3 percent in 2013, according to government estimates. In 2011 the economy contracted 1.6 percent.
Spain's economy is expected to contract 1.7 percent this year and grow 0.2 percent in 2013.
Portugal launched sweeping austerity, including across-the-board tax hikes and spending cuts, last year after requesting a bailout in May. Internal demand slumped as a consequence, contracting 5.7 percent in 2011.
But exports jumped about 11 percent last year as companies turned to foreign markets to avoid the domestic slump. That rise could be dented as Spain descends deeper into recession while it enacts its own dose of austerity.
Spain's direct economic impact on Portugal extends beyond just exports. Before the crisis hit, Spain was one of Portugal's five biggest foreign investors and its citizens are the single biggest group of tourists that visit Portugal.
In addition, Spain's biggest bank Santander, is Portugal's third largest private bank.
"If you see a deepening of Spanish problems, especially in the banking sector, the fear will spread to Portugal and other countries," said Barbara.
Despite this, yields on Portuguese bonds have fallen sharply in the past few weeks after they failed to join the rally in other peripheral bond markets earlier in the year on the back of the European Central Bank's long-term liquidity operations.
Portugal's 10-year bond yields traded around 10.75 percent on Monday, sharply down from highs above 17 percent in January. Some analysts say that is because fears have subsided that Portugal could be forced to restructure its debts like Greece.
Elisabeth Afseth, fixed-income analyst at Investec Capital Markets in London, suggests falling Portuguese bond yields could in themselves be a symptom of the worsening of Spain's crisis as the euro zone may have to consider direct help for banks.
"If the problems spread to Spain, there may possibly be capital (from Europe's rescue fund) directly for banks," she said. "That might help all countries.""
-------------
"(Reuters) - Spain's deteriorating economy has made Portugal's job of riding out its debt crisis harder as its main trading partner slides into recession and the threat of contagion across the Iberian peninsula intensifies.
Portugal has seen relatively positive news in recent weeks, with bond yields falling and the country winning strong marks from official lenders to its 78-billion-euro bailout.
But as the euro zone debt crisis flares up again after several months of calm, this time with the epicentre in Spain, Portugal's economic challenges could increase as the worst recession in decades gives rise to sweeping austerity.
"With 20 percent of Portuguese exports going to Spain, any kind of slowdown will be aggravated this year due to the austerity measures in Spain," said Rui Barbara, asset manager at Banco Carregosa. "If you eventually need external help (for Spain), you could also get contagion."
Data released on Monday showed that Spain, the euro zone's fourth largest economy, dipped back into recession in the first quarter, raising pressure on Madrid in its efforts to trim the budget deficit. Spain's troubles jumped into focus last week as Standard & Poor's downgraded the country's creditworthiness two notches to BBB+.
For Portugal, which spent much of last year fending off the negative impact of the Greek crisis, a renewal of the euro zone crisis so close to home could not have come at a worse time as the government rushes to quash concerns it will need an extension of its current bailout.
"This is bad news for Spain and bad news for Portugal," said former Finance Minister Luis Campos e Cunha, referring to the downgrade of Spanish debt. "In fact, it all points to there being an extension of the bailout agreement for Portugal."
Portuguese bond yields have fallen in recent weeks but the country remains the second-most risky euro zone member after Greece, in terms of bond spreads. Portugal was the third euro zone country to seek a bailout, after Greece and Ireland.
Portugal's government has repeatedly denied it needs more money or more time to meet the goals of its bailout, which currently envisage its return to raising finance in bond markets in the third quarter of next year. The government is adamant about meeting tough fiscal goals, which it has done so far.
DEEPEST RECESSION SINCE 1970S
The economy is expected to shrink 3.3 percent this year - the biggest slowdown since the 1970s - and return to slight growth of 0.3 percent in 2013, according to government estimates. In 2011 the economy contracted 1.6 percent.
Spain's economy is expected to contract 1.7 percent this year and grow 0.2 percent in 2013.
Portugal launched sweeping austerity, including across-the-board tax hikes and spending cuts, last year after requesting a bailout in May. Internal demand slumped as a consequence, contracting 5.7 percent in 2011.
But exports jumped about 11 percent last year as companies turned to foreign markets to avoid the domestic slump. That rise could be dented as Spain descends deeper into recession while it enacts its own dose of austerity.
Spain's direct economic impact on Portugal extends beyond just exports. Before the crisis hit, Spain was one of Portugal's five biggest foreign investors and its citizens are the single biggest group of tourists that visit Portugal.
In addition, Spain's biggest bank Santander, is Portugal's third largest private bank.
"If you see a deepening of Spanish problems, especially in the banking sector, the fear will spread to Portugal and other countries," said Barbara.
Despite this, yields on Portuguese bonds have fallen sharply in the past few weeks after they failed to join the rally in other peripheral bond markets earlier in the year on the back of the European Central Bank's long-term liquidity operations.
Portugal's 10-year bond yields traded around 10.75 percent on Monday, sharply down from highs above 17 percent in January. Some analysts say that is because fears have subsided that Portugal could be forced to restructure its debts like Greece.
Elisabeth Afseth, fixed-income analyst at Investec Capital Markets in London, suggests falling Portuguese bond yields could in themselves be a symptom of the worsening of Spain's crisis as the euro zone may have to consider direct help for banks.
"If the problems spread to Spain, there may possibly be capital (from Europe's rescue fund) directly for banks," she said. "That might help all countries.""
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Ireland went through an internal process to decide whether they do or do not want to vote on ratification of the fiscal union compact. I think they are right to vote on it as it does fundamentally alter the sovereign status of Ireland.
Once the fiscal union is ratified it transfers the key fiscal decisions to EuroZone committees, with the nation obliged to implement these committees' decisions. This is a massive erosion of national sovereignty. It is within the definition of colonialism. The parliament in Dublin becomes little more than a local authority with all the most important decisions made elsewhere. The whole national identity of Ireland has been framed in terms of an independence struggle. Three of the four main political parties of the Republic come direct from the old Sinn Fein that fought for Irish independence (Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and the continuing Sinn Fein). Ireland has defined itself in terms of independence, and for this has accepted nearly a century of a much lower standard of living than in the UK. This is the decision of the people of Ireland and one which has had enormous acceptance within Ireland. The present giving away of that sovereignty is a massive step. In a sense it makes a century or more of Irish history seem futile.
While I do think the Irish people should be voting on this I also think their politicians should be leading a proper debate. Only Sinn Fein are for rejection - and this very fact will turn people away from voting no. Perversely if Sinn Fein had joined the other parties in campaigning for yes the no vote might have done better.
It looks as if we're going to see something like 60% voting yes, a clear outcome. If this is the case then the people of Ireland have voted for colonialism, giving power to unaccountable committees. Their one hope is that the whole fiscal union falls to bits saving them from this fate. Though the democratic voice (if this is the outcome) is that Ireland no longer wishes to be a sovereign state.
Once the fiscal union is ratified it transfers the key fiscal decisions to EuroZone committees, with the nation obliged to implement these committees' decisions. This is a massive erosion of national sovereignty. It is within the definition of colonialism. The parliament in Dublin becomes little more than a local authority with all the most important decisions made elsewhere. The whole national identity of Ireland has been framed in terms of an independence struggle. Three of the four main political parties of the Republic come direct from the old Sinn Fein that fought for Irish independence (Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and the continuing Sinn Fein). Ireland has defined itself in terms of independence, and for this has accepted nearly a century of a much lower standard of living than in the UK. This is the decision of the people of Ireland and one which has had enormous acceptance within Ireland. The present giving away of that sovereignty is a massive step. In a sense it makes a century or more of Irish history seem futile.
While I do think the Irish people should be voting on this I also think their politicians should be leading a proper debate. Only Sinn Fein are for rejection - and this very fact will turn people away from voting no. Perversely if Sinn Fein had joined the other parties in campaigning for yes the no vote might have done better.
It looks as if we're going to see something like 60% voting yes, a clear outcome. If this is the case then the people of Ireland have voted for colonialism, giving power to unaccountable committees. Their one hope is that the whole fiscal union falls to bits saving them from this fate. Though the democratic voice (if this is the outcome) is that Ireland no longer wishes to be a sovereign state.
Thats what it is all about. US interest has dominated world politics for 100 years now.
I think you demonstrate the media bias yourself. To be generous to them, the media live on headlines so must create them out of whatever material is to hand. My own opinion has somewhat hardened over the years of this debate, that the euro is neither good or bad from the perspective of eu countries economies. No, no I dont think I believe that. I think that for the reasons mentioned above of creating a world currency controlled by europeans, it strengthens Europes relative position in the world.
Funnily enough the UK elections did not raise the question 'what to do when th pound fails'. I wonder why?
No, I dont think they are. The current crisis is one of massive debt but the solution is preventing future debts. All that is happening now is those with the money who could finance current debts refusing to do so until they have assurances about the future.
Would those be the same ones or different ones with student loan debts of £30,000?
I still hear commentators exhorting people to save for a pension. This is lunacy, buy financial assets thereby inflating their value but not in any way improving their return, and expect that miraculously in the future it will be possible to cash this in for a pension? Pension rates for a given capital sum have been falling for 10 years?
Yet other expert views say that the cuts will cause the disaster and the only solution is to borrow much more than presently (or, print money, boost inflation and thereby eradicate debt) Money must be recycled into the hands of the poor who will spend it.
Gordon Brown said this some time ago. I thought the consensus was he got it wrong.
No, you told me that what we have seen is NOT Keynsian economics. YOU said Keynes policy was borrow in bad times and repay in good. We have done the opposite and you are proposing that in bad times we continue doing the opposite to Keynes advice as we did during the good times.
What we need to do is give them some tough love, as we would to children who just burnt down the house. Never allow them matches again.
This might be true for the UK, but for the world it is patently untrue. Bankers merely take money from actual producers.
- sbat,
The lack of any real authority from any part of the political process is the real problem here, and not financial weakness. Whether or not the economy is suffering is inconsequential, as history has shown that eternal growth and joy is an unrealistic expectation. We're at a point where certain behaviors (continual growth of debt) need to be curtailed, however, neither voters nor their elected representatives have the gall or power to force difficult choices onto themselves.
Give a population a choice between tightening the belt and delaying the inevitable, they will always choose the latter.
Give a population a choice between tightening the belt and delaying the inevitable, they will always choose the latter.
Damn right, perados. Some years ago UK grammar schools were abolished on socialist grounds that it was unfair a few children went to good schools and most went to bad. This ignored both the reality of education, and the reality of how it was being provided. The solution adopted was to stop giving academically able pupils an intensive academic education, but to do very little about impoving the education of the rest. The solution should not have been to abolish good schools, but to abolish bad ones. Getting rid of the schools which people said were good was an insane solution. It did. incidentally revitalise the private schools system which had gradually been disappearing because of the existence of good state schools. (yes, I'm not saying the system was fair. It did benefit the existing middle classes disproportionately but the solution was to widen social access to the best schools, not reduce it)
Yes, more lunacy. There should be technical universities, or whatever they ought to be called. I think the word was polytechnic.
I was talking to a chap from brighton university yesterday who was saying Sussex university was falling behind them. (they are based in the same place, Falmer. But the guy from Brighton was saying there is enormous pressure on them to pass students rather than get good results. He gets told off every time a student leaves the course, however bad they might be.
Says who? are we talking Eaton (for those on the continent, a famous and successful private school)
The chap from Brighton was complaining our schools are producing university candidates who cannot write coherently or do basic mathematics.
Apparently we produce people trained for no job.
