Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[798686]

Joll - cheque books?!:wink:

Weeell...there're some situations where cards or online banking just wont do! :biggrin1:

 

[Drifterwood]

Too true! I can see why you might believe that a Federal state might reinvigorate - however - you must agree that they don't have any of the right people to do it, & red tape is the last thing we need.

This is part of the strangulation process. The UK has more employed political representatives than Red China.

The State needs to be firmly regulated by a constitution, no more than x% of this and y% of that. They have been totally f'ing irresponsible and self congratulatory to boot. We have far too many of the Phuquers building budget empires.

The US has a much better system and China with Hong Kong's example will soon be there. We are left in the Dark Ages. Our morons believe their own publicity.

 

[eurotop40]

Two very bad examples as they are not exemplary. Besides, average paid people in Switzerland find life pretty tough as far as I have been told.

Try to convince me that the UK is a happy place.

You are very right. Switzerland starts being a nice place if your earnings are at least above € 180,000 per annum.

 

[Speculator]

So I managed to second guess the British government! That's a first. They're now talking about a bilateral bailout deal with Ireland, this would never have happened under New Labour, the blank cheque would have been sent to our EU masters long ago.

The reason they're so keen to help out is because of our banks' exposure to Irish debt, so it's a covert bailout of our banks (again). This is a little silly however as it increases total net exposure by £7bn and we don't even know how the money is going to be spent.

The public will put up with this all the time it's contained in the financial sphere, when it starts spilling out into the real economy with higher taxes and interest rates is when things start to get interesting. I don't know how much longer our politicians can shield the public from the fallout.

 

[Drifterwood]

The money has already been spent. We're just covering some of the shortfall in actual value now. Will that value come back?

 

[Jason]

The money has already been spent. We're just covering some of the shortfall in actual value now. Will that value come back?

The deal is being done behind closed doors. When we get some details we may (or may not) be able to make sense of it.

I'm inclined to think that he that pays the piper calls the tune (or should that be pays the harpist?) and that in this case it might well be in the UK's national interest to pay. However I think the sort of deal needs to be one where we help Ireland retain its sovereignty while paving the way for a post-euro future for Ireland. If we have the vision we now have a once in a generation chance to find an enduringly stable future for the island of Ireland. I could almost see it as a "beneficial crisis"!

By the way great article on the EU/euro: Telegraph.

 

[D_Tim McGnaw]

Ireland's crisis has not been caused by being in the Eurozone, in fact were we not in the Euro we would be facing economic melt down on an epic scale right now.

As it is the problem has been caused by our government guaranteeing the Banks until next year (something the rest of the world congratulated us on at the time, turns out not only was our government wrong but so was everyone else), and a massive collapse in government revenues leading to a slump in confidence in our ability to service our national debt.

This makes it extremely difficult for Ireland to sell its debt on the Bond markets.

None of this would have been all that different were Ireland not in the Euro, lots of other countries outside the Euro, indeed outside the European Union are in similar situations.

That we are in the Eurozone makes it infinitely more likely that our Euro partners will bail us out making it possible for us to service our debt while further reducing government spending making it easier for us to sell our debt on the Bond markets.

Were we not in the Euro this solution would very likely not be available to us. the medicine is going to be bitter, but its better than total economic morbidity.

Oh and Jason, the whole "of course Ireland would be better off in the UK"-thing is offensive on so many levels, and besides it's total horseshit I don't even have time or patience to bother to refute. In any case to anyone with half a brain that assertion is absurd.

 

[Speculator]

Ireland's crisis has not been caused by being in the Eurozone, in fact were we not in the Euro we would be facing economic melt down on an epic scale right now.

As it is the problem has been caused by our government guaranteeing the Banks until next year, and a massive collapse in government revenues leading to a slump in confidence in our ability to service our national debt.

This makes it extremely difficult for Ireland to sell its debt on the Bond markets.

None of this would have been all that different were Ireland not in the Euro, lots of other countries outside the Euro, indeed outside the European Union are in similar situations.

That we are in the Eurozone makes it infinitely more likely that our Euro partners will bail us out making it possible for us to service our debt while further reducing government spending making it easier for us to sell our debt on the Bond markets.

Were we not in the Euro this solution would very likely not be available to us. the medicine is going to be bitter, but its better than total economic morbidity.

I agree with most of this. The euro detractors are blaming centralised interest rates for the crisis, and while you could argue that low interest rates were partially to blame I think it's a little far feteched to explain away Ireland's debt crisis entirely on the decisions of the European central bank. It's not like the Irish people and their government were coerced into spending all this cheap money, they could easily have only used what they needed and thanked Germany for their new lower cost financial base.

Ultimately Ireland could have avoided this mess if they adopted sensible fiscal policy. But they chose not too so now everyone has to shoulder the burden.

 

[B_nyvin]

Being in the Eurozone has nothing to do with anything, and being out of the Eurozone wouldn't help at all....Ireland's banks are in debt of up to 175% of Ireland's GDP....devaluation isn't going to do JACK with amounts like that, Ireland isn't even an export oriented country.

Ireland and Greece always had large amounts of debts, before Greece joined the Euro they were constantly over 100% of GDP in debt, I don't think they ever drop lower.

The only difference now is there are other countries that are partially responsible for helping them fix things up and the EU just has to decide if they're in it together.

Once again, being out of the Eurozone wouldn't help them worth a damn, and being in the Eurozone had almost nothing to do with them building up debt, they could've easily just borrowed all that money anyway the same way the baltic countries or Iceland or even the UK did!! IT'S ALL THE SAME!! and devaluation does not help all that much, it's a temporary small fix, which would not help Ireland.

 

[Jason]

Oh and Jason, the whole "of course Ireland would be better off in the UK"-thing is offensive on so many levels, and besides it's total horseshit I don't even have time or patience to bother to refute. In any case to anyone with half a brain that assertion is absurd.

*****************
Just found my original statement: "By the way of course Ireland would be better off as part of the UK - and the UK better off with Ireland as a part. But Irish national sentiment is against this. Probably we need to develop the "Council of the Isles" to bring the two nations, Channel Islands and Isle of Man closer."

It was a response to someone else's comment. I'm suggesting closer co-operation between the UK and Ireland through the "Council of the Isles" or similar - and there should be no offense caused in raising the idea. We already have this organisation.

*********************************


This is the Irish tragedy in miniature. I'm well aware of the history and Irish pride in the Irish nation. I'm also aware of the enduring pain of a divided island and the continuing difficulties in Northern Ireland. Both the UK and Ireland need their heads banged together, like two squabling children in a playground.

Ireland is now talking behind closed doors for some sort of deal which we all expect will be in just a few days. Probably this deal will be the first stage of many, probably it will be phrased in ways to give Ireland a fig leaf, but it is nonetheless likely to set the subsequent direction. Ireland has to decide whether it wants to accept the EU vision of an inevitable fiscal union (with the ECB effectively the boss, and with a real loss of sovereignty) or whether it can negotiate a position less onerous, which probably does involve loans from the UK. The position for Ireland is horrible, because the reality is that whoever is paying will have a degree of influence and control.

Emotion may lead Ireland to reject UK loans. However the economy of Ireland has a trade cycle very close to the UK (and different from the rest of the EU), trade between the two is extensive, there is significant economic linkage. The true challenge for Ireland, as for the UK, is to come up with an enduring solution. Within the EU, BeNeLux demonstrate a particularly close linking which is for their mutual good. There is no economic reason why the UK and Ireland could not do the same sort of thing through an appropriate bilateral agreement -and an agreement would bring Irish reunification a bit closer, as well as calming tensions in Northern Ireland. If our politicians have the courage something of enduring worth could come out of this mess. Bluntly does Ireland want to be governed from Berlin, or keep its independence by working more closely with the UK?

 

[B_New End]

Both the UK and Ireland need their heads banged together, like two squabling children in a playground.

Except the UK got to keep Ireland's toy.
(breaking from the analogy, the best farmland in Ireland)

 

[D_Tim McGnaw]

*****************
Just found my original statement: "By the way of course Ireland would be better off as part of the UK - and the UK better off with Ireland as a part. But Irish national sentiment is against this. Probably we need to develop the "Council of the Isles" to bring the two nations, Channel Islands and Isle of Man closer."

It was a response to someone else's comment. I'm suggesting closer co-operation between the UK and Ireland through the "Council of the Isles" or similar - and there should be no offense caused in raising the idea. We already have this organisation.

*********************************


This is the Irish tragedy in miniature. I'm well aware of the history and Irish pride in the Irish nation. I'm also aware of the enduring pain of a divided island and the continuing difficulties in Northern Ireland. Both the UK and Ireland need their heads banged together, like two squabling children in a playground.

Ireland is now talking behind closed doors for some sort of deal which we all expect will be in just a few days. Probably this deal will be the first stage of many, probably it will be phrased in ways to give Ireland a fig leaf, but it is nonetheless likely to set the subsequent direction. Ireland has to decide whether it wants to accept the EU vision of an inevitable fiscal union (with the ECB effectively the boss, and with a real loss of sovereignty) or whether it can negotiate a position less onerous, which probably does involve loans from the UK. The position for Ireland is horrible, because the reality is that whoever is paying will have a degree of influence and control.

Emotion may lead Ireland to reject UK loans. However the economy of Ireland has a trade cycle very close to the UK (and different from the rest of the EU), trade between the two is extensive, there is significant economic linkage. The true challenge for Ireland, as for the UK, is to come up with an enduring solution. Within the EU, BeNeLux demonstrate a particularly close linking which is for their mutual good. There is no economic reason why the UK and Ireland could not do the same sort of thing through an appropriate bilateral agreement -and an agreement would bring Irish reunification a bit closer, as well as calming tensions in Northern Ireland. If our politicians have the courage something of enduring worth could come out of this mess. Bluntly does Ireland want to be governed from Berlin, or keep its independence by working more closely with the UK?

Waffle and piss.


There's a world of difference between suggesting international cooperation (which manifestly already exists, so why you think its so novel to suggest it is beyond me) and suggesting that Ireland would actually be better of as part of the UK.

You did say that, so presumably you think it, whatever your shallow qualifications might suggest.

I suppose Scotland and Wales are such shining examples of how being dominated by the Westminster government is such a marvelous outcome is it?

You are aware of what life in Wales and Scotland is like for most people aren't you? Higher unemployment, shorter life expectancy, chronic poverty, generations of disenfranchisement and under investment etc etc. You can blame devolution for some of this but not all by any means, especially not if you look beyond the last decade or so.

And since your Con-Lib coalition's government cuts have been shown to effect Wales and Scotland disproportionately (and indeed all recessions in the UK always have) why would Ireland be so much better off having Westminster make our decisions for us?

Get real.

 

[D_Tim McGnaw]

Except the UK got to keep Ireland's toy.
(breaking from the analogy, the best farmland in Ireland)

Erm hate to break it to you but the best farm land and the greatest quantity of it in Ireland is in the midlands and the south east, not Northern Ireland.

 

[Jason]

Except the UK got to keep Ireland's toy.
(breaking from the analogy, the best farmland in Ireland)

• The hurt felt by the Republic of Ireland and the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland is enormous and 100% justified. They are right that terrible things have been done to them.
• The hurt felt by the Unionist community in Northern Ireland is enormous and 100% justified. They are right that terrible things have been done to them.
• The exasperation felt by Great Britain is real - and there is enduring British hurt from bombs in London, Manchester and elsewhere.

We all know this. But just as Bosnians and Serbs have to get along in Bosnia or Jews and Palestinians in Israel so the British and the Irish have to get along in our Isles. We are both prisoners of geography. The challenge for our political leaders is to find a way forward. Bluntly the UK has to put large sums into Ireland which will cause pain for people in the UK. Bluntly Ireland can only fulfil its economic potential through close economic ties with the UK. However offensive this is, however much people want to disagree with it, this is the position.

Just as the two nations had to make the Anglo-Irish agreement work so we've now got to make an economic agreement work. And right now I expect the first stages are being bashed out in meeting rooms in Dublin. Ireland has now lost its high standard of living, welfare will be slashed, and economic historians will be writing their chapter on the Celtic Tiger bubble. The prosperity contrast with the UK (including across the border with NI) will be sharp. Ireland has a choice - a generation of poverty as an ECB fiefdom or closer co-operation with the UK. The challenge is how the politicians of Ireland sell this seemingly offensive solution to the people of Ireland. If they can't then of course the will of the people must prevail.

 

[Speculator]

I'm inclined to think that he that pays the piper calls the tune (or should that be pays the harpist?) and that in this case it might well be in the UK's national interest to pay.

The same justification is used for the international development fund, we need to hand over this money (apparently) it's in the national interest to buy up influence. However advocates are unable to quantify the upside of these transactions so there can be no rational cost/benefit analysis. I guess we just have to accept that they know best, it's not like governments have a history of wasting money :wink:

But I do wonder what sort of tune we're going to be able to call. Ireland have virtually no room for maneuver with the government fire fighting rather than taking control. I think we're going to end up writing off this "loan".

 

[B_New End]

Erm hate to break it to you but the best farm land and the greatest quantity of it in Ireland is in the midlands and the south east, not Northern Ireland.

hmm.. a professor somewhere is wrong. Of course, with an Irish name, perhaps his/her opinion on the matter was weighted, although he/she is Italian.

 

[B_New End]

• The hurt felt by the Republic of Ireland and the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland is enormous and 100% justified. They are right that terrible things have been done to them.
• The hurt felt by the Unionist community in Northern Ireland is enormous and 100% justified. They are right that terrible things have been done to them.
• The exasperation felt by Great Britain is real - and there is enduring British hurt from bombs in London, Manchester and elsewhere.

Ahh, the old British "everybody is guilty, so lets do it our way" argument.
that's enough derailing... I subscribed to this thread a few days ago for the information, and would hate for it to stop by a derail. you get the last word.

 

[Victoria]

Very pressing times ahead for Europe. Sad.


Hopefully everything’s resolved amicably and whatever austerity measures Europe decide to levy upon the republic or Ireland and other EU member countries in a similar position doesn't impact too heavily on normal working people.

 

[dandelion]

If we have the vision we now have a once in a generation chance to find an enduringly stable future for the island of Ireland.

Wasnt it awful how people could have imagined those people being shot by soldiers on that daftly named 'bloody sunday'. I cant think how that silly myth could have got about.

We all know this. But just as Bosnians and Serbs have to get along in Bosnia or Jews and Palestinians in Israel so the British and the Irish have to get along in our Isles. We are both prisoners of geography. The challenge for our political leaders is to find a way forward.

Precisely my reasoning why little UK has no choice but to come to terms with being part of the EU

 

[Speculator]

Precisely my reasoning why little UK has no choice but to come to terms with being part of the EU

Get real! It the EU has united europe it's only because citizens feel at one fighting this corrupt and inept institution.