Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[Drifterwood]

But if he doesn't dispute the results of the Eurobarometer poll, how can he seem to imply that half a billion Europeans are in unison in support of the EU?

Also, I think Jason is reasonable to anticipate that support for the EU must have fall from that 49 percent figure over the past year.
I will be astonished if he turns out to be wrong.

There is a world of difference between Libyans or Syrians wishing a regime/system change and some spoiled Euros wishing that life was a bed of roses without having to fork the manure in.

 

[Jason]

Cameron and the Uk can fuck off frankly.

Well probably the UK will. So will Greece, Ireland and Portugal. So will Finland. So will Germany, France. Oh and I forgot Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe. I'm pretty much leaving Luxembourg, Strasbourg and Brussels as the territories of the EU. There's a parallel with the Holy Roman Empire - it ended up as an empty title held by a deposed emperor of Austria.

Only a minority support the EU as it now is - and seemingly a small minority would support a United States of Europe. The right to self-determination is a key one. It isn't about what is economically best but about what the people of the nations of Europe want. People want identity. There is pride in being British or Greek or Finnish or German or French. Only a few educated intellectuals are proud of being European - and many people are actively ashamed of this description.

 

[dandelion]

My little contribution would be that up to about 1890 France was the enemy. Up to 1850 Germany (or its constituent countries ) were broadly long standing allies (Kings of Britain were all German!). This reversed because of Germany's global ambitions. Germanys global ambitions were pretty much the work of just a few men although it certainly had territorial ambitions within Europe, which had suited us since we didnt like France much. The point I'd make is that Germany is actually a long standing British ally, and in truth we fell out because we had identical world aims and ambitions. Jason might draw from this that European nations are always falling out. I might say that european nations are well accustomed to working together in any combination at need.

Someone yesterday was suggesting there could be benefit in Britain taking a more active part now in the euro/greek problem because we could effectively ally with Germany - broadly pro writing off Greek debt because there is no choice - against France - broadly against doing so because of more to lose by defaults. On the grounds that Germany needs the help now to push through a massive Greek writeoff, and because if we do not do this now and benefit from being involved, we will be drawn in irrespective in due course if Greek debts are not written off, when they default. It seems to be widely accepted that it is impossible for Greece to pay off its debts whatever they do and it is arguable that trying will just make matters worse for everyone.

The 'older generation' is more complex than you suggest. Well, mostly dead by now so arguably with little political influence. However the EU was created to ensure peace and cooperation within Europe - by those who lived through the wars. It is the deaths of those people who experienced war and understood exactly the need for the EU which has led to this doubt now. Ted Heath finally oversaw Britain joining the EU and it was his war experience which did it. The modern generation does not understand this lesson of history. The EU was created to compel the nations to stand together in a crisis rather fighting between themselves. This is a crisis. No bullets but the damage could still be very great. It will guaranteed be worse if we do not work together.

Jason, you posted a year old survey. there is one from last december at http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb74/eb74_en.pdf. This says 46% of people think the Eu is going in the right direction. 26% think the wrong direction. It lists several other questions they asked, including one about job losses which says more people thought the worst was still to come than not, but the trend over the previous 18 months was steadily towards more people thinking the worst was over, and on that trend should have reversed by now. I could not find a more recent survey to see what has happened since.

Oh, I looked up the uk political party polls which say labour 40% conservative 37%. Are you suggesting the conservatives should prepare now for defeat at the next election? Or resign because they are behind?

 

[eurotop40]

The cultural issue is so great that no few lines can hope to do much with it. Curiously I think the troubled relationship between the UK and Ireland says much about the position. People in both nation states don't regard the other as truly abroad despite the troubles....

How sweet. Maybe every Irish person still secretly dreams of drinking a cup of tea with that lovely ma'am of yours...

...
By contrast there is an older generation in the UK which still regards the people of Germany as individually culpable for the horrors of the third reich. This is the generation that went through evacuation, saw the beaches of southern England land-mined, witnessed the blitz on every city in the UK, saw London burning, ...

Maybe there are still the children of some Dutch that remember the stories of the horrors of the Anglo-Boer war and its British concentration camps...


What I am saying is that the Europeans are ALL in the same boat. The Chinese and the Indians will have the greatest pleasure in eating up the British in revenge some day if they have no more friends and allies. And sadly, your Royalty will not be of any help.

 

[Jason]

Jason, you posted a year old survey.

The December poll asks a different question. That said I do agree that all the polls are only polls.

I think that before there is any more EU integration there is an obligation to ask the people of the nations of the EU what they want. I don't think a referendum in a handful of countries (overturned if it is not in keeping with the required result) is enough. Polls do indicate that the Lisbon Treaty did not have majority backing - and wherever it was voted on it was opposed.

I imagine the UK will in effect do a deal with Germany over Greece. The deal will be that Germany will leave the euro and the UK will not object. Problem solved.

 

[eurotop40]

By the way, for those who can read german, there is right now on stern.de a very very intelligent set of articles about the whole european financial crisis.

 

[D_Gunther Snotpole]

There is a world of difference between Libyans or Syrians wishing a regime/system change and some spoiled Euros wishing that life was a bed of roses without having to fork the manure in.

True but not apropos to the question of how much support the EU actually has.

 

[Jason]

EuroTop, the press of different EU nations were giving surprisingly varied takes on the euro-crisis, but no longer. I've not seen the Stern articles, but I've seen Frankfurter Allgemeiner Zeitung today (which leads on the euro crisis) and Le Figaro a few days ago - and Irish Times couple of days ago. There is now consensus (IMO) that the crisis is horribly serious and a realisation that this is one that the EU cannot just muddle through. The German press is IMO often the more "academic" in tone in that there is very serious discussion of options (or maybe this is just the bits I see), and of course the options are many and varied. The Irish press now IMO alternates between ignoring the issue (and concentrating on some flower festival in Ballypaddy) or abject fear.

 

[Jason]

How sweet. Maybe every Irish person still secretly dreams of drinking a cup of tea with that lovely ma'am of yours...

Well the Irish do drink lots of tea.

A recent poll in Northern Ireland shows that 73% want to remain part of the UK including 52% of Northern Ireland Roman Catholics want to remain part of the UK. The Queen's visit to Ireland was very well received by the people of the Republic of Ireland (there are polls but I can't be bothered hunting them). Yes, many in the Republic of Ireland would be quite happy to drink a cup of tea with the Queen.

Furthermore it is often forgotten that there are protestants in the Republic of Ireland, and Unionists, and Orange Lodges. They are a small minority but they do exist. The two traditions are in the whole island of Ireland, not just in Northern Ireland. This picture shows an Orange Parade in Co Donegal.

There is an old idea that Irish reunification should be "under the crown". I don't think this is on the table, but some form of confederation between the UK and Ireland is I think worth discussion, with a degree of unification of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland within some sort of Isles Confederation. Indeed the thrust of the euro crisis is that where Greece goes, Ireland will follow, and floating an independent currency is very difficult for any small nation. Greece has no choice, but Ireland does - they were on a sterling peg until they joined the euro and could return to it. But as we've seen that the euro is failing because there is no fiscal union I think there would have to be a UK-Ireland fiscal union (which isn't hard to achieve as the systems are similar). I think the real-politik of the euro crisis is gioing to give a shove towards Irish reunification, but within a confederation.

 

[dandelion]

The Irish press now IMO alternates between ignoring the issue (and concentrating on some flower festival in Ballypaddy) or abject fear.

That may be entirely the correct move for ireland at the moment. Take the money and wait to see what happens. Just wait and see. Time to create a fuss later if it turns out to be a good move. There is perhaps nothing for Ireland to decide just now.

 

[dandelion]

Jason, after 400 years of fighting to get away you seriously think the Irish are going to ask to join the UK????????????.............???????????? Wonder what michael collins would have thought. Didnt he reckon he signed his own death warrant by agreeing to a treaty with the british?

 

[Drifterwood]

True but not apropos to the question of how much support the EU actually has.

But what does the question mean? It's too nebulous for me, and as Dandy points out, the UK conservatives currently have 39% "support".

The issue of identity is pure sideline scare mongering and IMO has no relevance to the questions concerning fiscal union, an appeal to a low denominator without addressing the real issues. I am not impressed by willful misrepresentation to enhance a hidden agenda. The anti Europe mob have a rag bag of strange and mostly unsavoury bedfellows.

 

[Jason]

Jason, after 400 years of fighting to get away you seriously think the Irish are going to ask to join the UK????????????.............????????????

Yes.

Not quite in the terms your language implies. I think we are looking at a Confederation where the Republic of Ireland would be a sovereign state, with some sort of dual state identity for Northern Ireland.

Greece is facing a descent into poverty of a sort unknown for a couple of generations in a developed nation. The threat of civil war is growing and may now be more likely than not. Ireland is similarly on a descent into poverty, though its society is so far more cohesive. There comes a point when people are presented with on the one hand social and economic collapse and on the other prosperity and social cohesion through a deal with a neighbour (the neighbour where just about every family now has relatives working) and the deal becomes very attractive. The idea is to create a win-win scenario. I think we are looking at some sort of reunification of Ireland but within a Confederation of the Isles.

 

[eurotop40]

Yes.

Not quite in the terms your language implies. I think we are looking at a Confederation where the Republic of Ireland would be a sovereign state, with some sort of dual state identity for Northern Ireland.

Greece is facing a descent into poverty of a sort unknown for a couple of generations in a developed nation. The threat of civil war is growing and may now be more likely than not. Ireland is similarly on a descent into poverty, though its society is so far more cohesive. There comes a point when people are presented with on the one hand social and economic collapse and on the other prosperity and social cohesion through a deal with a neighbour (the neighbour where just about every family now has relatives working) and the deal becomes very attractive. The idea is to create a win-win scenario. I think we are looking at some sort of reunification of Ireland but within a Confederation of the Isles.

Prosperity with a neighbor that is also on the verge of bankruptcy?

 

[dandelion]

Not quite in the terms your language implies. I think we are looking at a Confederation where the Republic of Ireland would be a sovereign state,

Hey.....lets call it the EU!

Greece is facing a descent into poverty of a sort unknown for a couple of generations in a developed nation. The threat of civil war is growing and may now be more likely than not. Ireland is similarly on a descent into poverty, though its society is so far more cohesive.

reminds me of the uk in the 70's? I see people are still talking of devaluing the greek currency with inevitable knock on soaring inflation. Cant imagine the greeks sitting still for that...the british didnt. Strike, strike, strike. It struck me today thinking about it, that depending on your economy, surely devaluation can make matters worse because this fine theory of increasing exports through cheapness only works if you have something to export, and discouraging imports only works if the imports are optional.

There comes a point when people are presented with on the one hand social and economic collapse and on the other prosperity and social cohesion through a deal with a neighbour

Turkey perhaps? The Greeks have a long standing disagreemnt with them perhaps not dissimilar to the irish-english problem?

 

[Jason]

Prosperity with a neighbor that is also on the verge of bankruptcy?

Not sure whether the state on the verge of bankrutcy is intended to be UK or Ireland. The UK economy has many problems, but the average due date of sovereign debt is 14 years and the UK has convinced the markets that it is tackling the debt problem - the UK is not now on the verge of bankruptcy.

Ireland is by definition already insolvent and would go bankrupt if the IMF/ECB funds are turned off. Austerity alone cannot solve the Irish problems - all past experience shows that there must also be default and devaluation. Irish default will hit the UK as the economies are closely linked (though there is the concept of a managed default which can even include a decision on who gets paid and who doesn't, and a package where UK creditors are paid in return for UK support may well be on the table. After all the eurozone has created the Irish problem, so what moral right for repayment does the eurozone have?) After default and devaluation the Irish economy will be in a strong position - annual income is in excess of annual expenditure. The big contrast with Greece is that the fundamentals of the Irish economy are sound.

The fit between the UK and Irish economies is very close - both the fiscal and social systems are very similar. Ireland's very low Corporation Tax is in the diretion towards which the UK aspires. Economically, confederation looks like a winner. A confederation would have US blessing.

*********
And yes Dandelion I know the EU is almost a confederation, but we shouldn't let one bad confederation cloud our views on all confederations.

Dandelion - of course massive devaluation leads to inflation (as you say), often hyper-inflation, and high inflation causes unemployment and wrecks economies. Yet it can still be the least bad option. The choice for Greece right now is between the dire option and the cataclysmic option. I hope they take the dire option. Ireland has more options, one of which is the deus ex machina solution of waving a wand and the economic problems go away. All they have to do is think the politically unthinkable. But if 52% of Northern Ireland Roman Catholics can support being part of the UK I think it is conceivable that a majority of people in the Republic of Ireland might come to support a sovereign Ireland on the punt and in confederation with the UK.

 

[Drifterwood]

Just who is this Civil War in Greece going to be between?

And I don't mean the Greeks, D'oh. I wonder who the sides will be.

Can we also expect a plague of locusts?

 

[TomCat84]

Here is an appropriate article:
George Soros: Country Leaving Euro Currency 'Probably Inevitable'

 

[dandelion]

It strikes me there is a very fine line between the irish type insolvency because markets have declined to fund it and the UK solvency because markets still are propping it up. The eurozone did not create the irish problem. The Irish and Greek problems were created by some ingenious bankers in America who decided to get rich by selling worthless mortgage securities to the whole of the rest of the world.The uk, Greece and many other states were all following a path of borrowing as much as they dared to boost their economies (er perhaps i mean, government standing). Nor was this a labour thing in the uk, the conservatives in opposition were entirely on board with the financial planning. Every nation made certain assumptions about growth which went totally out of the window when those pesky bankers did their stuff. Some countries were more imprudent than others, thus the UK scrapes through on the solvent side while some others do not. But the greek problem would not be such a problem had those other wealthier nations not already spent a very big fortune bailing themselves out.

My view is that there is not a hope in hell of creating an anglo-irish union as you describe. There already is a UK-Irish union of sorts which existed with joint rights before the EU and now has other rights via the EU. I presume, however, that you are proposing a rather deeper union. The sort of union which unlike the rather mild EU, many countries would not find acceptable.

 

[Jason]

My view is that there is not a hope in hell of creating an anglo-irish union as you describe.

Absolutely everyone shares your view. I'm so far out on a limb on this one that I'm levitating in thin air.

I've been bashing on for ages about the failure of the euro as inevitable. Soros says it is "probably inevitable" that a country will leave the euro - I take it this means inevitable. And once there is the breach of one country leaving the euro, the euro currency is damaged goods - IMO its failure is now inevitable. It has been since at least December 2010.

Once the euro fails we have a whole range of impossibles that will suddenly become possible. IMO some sort of Confederation of the Isles is one of many impossibles that will have an enormous economic push behind them. Nationalism is a potent force, perhaps the only one that can stand against economics, but if the putative treaty is properly structured it will work with the grain of nationalism.

The plague of locust will surely be inflicted on the tyrants, so they are predicted for Brussels. Possible civil war in Greece is between the government (supported by the police and the army) and the indignant (supported by the Church, the opposition, and if push comes to shove just possibly by the army).