Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[dandelion]

The concept is to have immigration based on skills. In general terms those with skills we need (eg nurses) can come in; those with skills we don't (eg coffee bar workers) cannot.

That is the talk, not the implementation. The talk is to only allow in people with skills we need. Well guess what: the people here now are exactly the ones with the skills we need. They are all employed, there is no massive native pool of unemployment, they were all needed to do something. And that is why they have not gone home again, because there are unfilled jobs here for them to do.

Skilled workers from the EU would still come, and in addition skilled workers from outside the EU. The skilled workers from outside the EU are restricted at present because we cannot cope with the total number of immigrants.

I am not aware of any restrictions currently on skilled workers from anywhere to fill recognised skill shortages, whether that skill is medicine, banking, or picking vegetables.

In effect we would be substituting unskilled workers from the EU with skilled workers from outside the EU (though fewer in number).

No, not fewer in number. That is the lie. Unless leaving the Eu causes a crash in the UK economy and job losses, in which case of course these people would be out of work just like natives. In fact, your prediction of job losses if we exit seems to confirm the economists predictions of a shrinking economy.

Additionally the UK would be able to take more refugees, skilled and unskilled. Maybe unskilled Syrians could work in coffee bars in place of unskilled Poles.

And you believe the public would find this an acceptable alternative to take Syrians who do not speak english and have funny ideas instead of white catholic poles who learnt english before coming because.....?

A virtual fence needs to be around an area with reasonably similar income levels. The UK can certainly cope with disparities within the UK and seek to reduce these. We cannot cope with disparities as acute as with Eastern European nations.

But this is what we chose to do. It has been the policy of the EU for a very long time. We nationally encouraged it because we wanted to take those european countries away from soviet control. This was an example of the UK exerting its world power via membership of the EU. Yet now you want to walk away from that decision.

I agree with you there is an element of encouraging development of the poorer members within the EU, and there always has been. We benefitted from this too. Whats more, it worked. Irish went home to ireland instead of infesting the UK looking for work. English went home to England instead of infesting Germany.

A UK within the EU means an end to the NHS and an end to any sort of effort towards a level playing field for schooling.

Thats nonsense. There is no significant cost to the NHS from EU visitors. And anyway, leavers plan is simply to replace EU visitors with non Eu visitors.

The poor will be downtrodden as in Greece -

I do not see what this has to do with the EU. In Britain exactly the same has happened to the poor under the current conservative government. What proposals are being made to exit the westminster government which is oppressing them?

 

[dandelion]

There will not be a re-run.

I am sure they said that last time too....

138 Westminster MPs have come out for Brexit. Strangely the same number as the Tory MPs who support Remain.

The crushing irony is that Brexit is campaigning for more power back to Westminster, yet this Parliamentary Democracy would overwhelmingly crush Brexit.

Now there is an interesting point. If you were an MP who honestly believes that the Uk should be inside the EU, could you in good faith vote for any legislation which would take us out of the EU?

It could prove harder to get westminster to pass legislation to leave than it was to pass legislation to join.

 

[dandelion]

Ah the old Europe thing... I thought I would put my two pence in even though I am not referring to the Eurozone crisis but there's little point bringing about a EU referendum thread.

Hello, and welcome.

The problem is that nobody knows exactly what will happen...

This is of course true, very generally in all aspects of life. However what we normally do is take the best available advice, not refuse the best available advice.

these are the same organisations that didn't see a financial crisis looming in 2008

so lets hope they learnt something. However I suspect you are wrong and they did see this coming. All the world financial system saw it coming, but their perfectly sound reasoning was that just so long as it did not happen in the current accounting period, they would get their bonus.

Immigration - We have huge problems with hospitals, schools, housing etc and there is evidence that this is made worse by uncontrolled migration from other countries primarily from the EU.

We do not have uncontrolled immigration. Immigration has simply met demand for labour. In fact the system already has built in safeguards which allow people to be sent home if they do not find work within a reasonable time and are not self supporting.

The leave group don't want to 'shut the borders' as the remain campaign suggest, in fact it seems they want to pick and choose who is best for our economy and our way of life more generally.

But this is a nonsense because 1) as I just said supply is simply meeting demand, and 2) the labour pool they seek to use as an alternative would be less compatible with the british lifestyle not more.

Security - I have no belief that we are safer in the EU than out...

Anyone getting into the Uk now has to pass our own security checks. if we did exit, I do not see how the problem of people acquiring French or German pasports and then presenting them to come to Britain would be any different. If the reality of this new world is more people coming from strange places around the world instead of EU countries, then I suspect the reality would be worse intelligence about them and any who might present risks.

The facts are clear - terrorists went through Europe into France and shot and killed a large number of civilians in 2015.

The facts are clear, terorists went through Britain for the last 100 years from ireland killing many many British citizens. These things happen and the situation is well under control now in comparison to the past.

We can have a polite, courteous relationship with the EU based on mutual help and cooperation. We do not have to be dictated to by a load of bureaucrats that have not been elected by the UK.

So why do you want to leave the EU and cause this to happen? At present we DO elect those bureaucrats. if we leave they will still be creating regulations for the Uk but we will have no input into their election and no veto on anything they choose to do.

Cameron and Co say that it is a leap of faith and a huge risk to leave the EU but nobody ever 'won' by never taking risks.

All the evidence I have seen says that leaving would simply weaken the the situation of the Uk with regard to influencing actions of the Eu but still leave us bound by its decisions. That is a crazy thing to do, especially in the name of democrcy or freedom.

I believe that the EU are desperate for the UK to remain because there is a looming bail-out that will become apparent in the next few years and they don't need a strong economy leaving at such a time.

The eurozone will have to use QE to bail itself out. It has always had the power to do this, but it has been politically unpalateable. This is and will be their last resort if it becomes necessary. no one is willing to take on more debt unless coerced, and only the little countries could be coerced.

 

[Drifterwood]

We can have a polite, courteous relationship with the EU based on mutual help and cooperation. We do not have to be dictated to by a load of bureaucrats that have not been elected by the UK.

This is the great Brexit lie. It is, to quote, utterly mendacious.

Europe has a market bloc over seven times larger than the UK. If we wish to sell to it, we will have to comply with all their regulations, so no change in the bureaucracy and laws. No change.

What will change are the tariffs applied to most favoured nation status (MFN, I presume you are familiar with this) suppliers who have products that the EU does not want. Processed dairy products for example carry a 42% tariff. Do they want our dairy products or do they want to give their remaining members the opportunity to fill the supply gap?

Europe will start negotiations only on those products and services that they really need from the UK. I doubt that there are many and these only for that period until their own companies can supply alternatives. This is what China does BTW whilst imposing large tariffs on those imported products.

 

[Drifterwood]

As Europe has responded to many things that they have got somewhat wrong (who doesn't), we will, in the wake of Austria, need to look at migration controls. Change needs to be managed.

 

[Jason]

It could prove harder to get Westminster to pass legislation to leave than it was to pass legislation to join.

An interesting point.

There is certainly a view that Cameron would not act on a narrow Leave vote. He might try the option of a renegotiation with the EU and another referendum.

The process of leaving the EU may benefit from legislation through parliament and this may indeed be how it is done, but I don't think legislation is required. It is of course very hard for any politician to vote against the democratically expressed will of the people. This would be a pretty fundamental breach of democracy. I think Conservative and Labour MPs would either vote for it or abstain. However I really don't think legislation is required.

The actual process of leaving the EU is set out (briefly) in article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The process is a notification by the UK (by the Prime Minister) to the European Commission, and a notification does not require a parliamentary vote. The notification sets a timetable for withdrawal within two years.It sets out that the European Parliament may agree terms within this two years but that if terms are not agreed then the withdrawal happens anyway. In effect this sets a deadline, and as we all know the EU only functions with deadlines.

It would also be possible for the UK to leave the EU by abrogating the Treaties, ie Treaty of Rome and all subsequent Treaties. This would be messy, but is possible. It may be that the UK would give two years' notice under Article 50 and additionally set out that the Treaties will be abrogated at the end date.

 

[Drifterwood]

@rbkwp odds are now over 5 to 1 for Brexit.

 

[Drifterwood]

An interesting point.

It is of course very hard for any politician to vote against the democratically expressed will of the people. This would be a pretty fundamental breach of democracy. I think Conservative and Labour MPs would either vote for it or abstain. However I really don't think legislation is required.

I don't think so. I think it is the preserve of the Parliamentary Democratic system. If the electorate don't like it then they can deselect and if not, not vote for that candidate in a general election.

This is our system isn't it? Isn't this what Brexit are campaigning for?

 

[Jason]

This is the great Brexit lie. It is, to quote, utterly mendacious.

And it's not an argument I've made.

A partial answer is that the UK has good negotiators and there will be a wish by the nations of the EU to find agreements in many areas. I don't accept the over-stated disaster scenarios that some are putting forward. However there will be areas which are problematic and there will be problems.

The EU that will exist two years after a Brexit vote will not be the EU we know now. The challenge will be a relationship with a different and fast-changing entity. I don't really see how we can predict it.

 

[Jason]

I don't think so. I think it is the preserve of the Parliamentary Democratic system. If the electorate don't like it then they can deselect and if not, not vote for that candidate in a general election.

This is our system isn't it? Isn't this what Brexit are campaigning for?

You may be right.

Imagine a vote for Leave which parliament blocks. Conservatives would in effect split. Popularity for UKIP would surge. We could have an early general election (yes I know it is harder with fixed term parliaments, but still possible) with every constituency having a single Leave candidate, whether Conservative, UKIP or Labour. As our system gives a landslide to any group much over 40% we could see parliament overwhelmingly Leave.

Imagine that the referendum vote is for Remain. No-one really thinks the Leave camp will go away. Probably UKIP would mutate into a movement. It will be a major issue for the 2020 referendum.

 

[dandelion]

Jason, you raise the intriguing possibility that the Uk might resign from th EU but still have in force all the UK legislation requiring it to obey brussels directives, pay money to the Eu, etc, etc??

 

[Drifterwood]

And it's not an argument I've made.

A partial answer is that the UK has good negotiators and there will be a wish by the nations of the EU to find agreements in many areas. I don't accept the over-stated disaster scenarios that some are putting forward. However there will be areas which are problematic and there will be problems.

The EU that will exist two years after a Brexit vote will not be the EU we know now. The challenge will be a relationship with a different and fast-changing entity. I don't really see how we can predict it.

The current countries that do have a "courteous" relationship with the EU are small and have a few things that Europe needs and is happy to source from them.

The UK is a very different proposition.

Outside the EU, the UK is a broadly speaking a competitor both for Inward Investment and manufacturing capacity.

Be ignorant of this at your peril. And sadly, most voters don't understand the reality of International trade and the ensuing politics.

 

[Drifterwood]

You may be right.

Imagine a vote for Leave which parliament blocks. Conservatives would in effect split. Popularity for UKIP would surge. We could have an early general election (yes I know it is harder with fixed term parliaments, but still possible) with every constituency having a single Leave candidate, whether Conservative, UKIP or Labour. As our system gives a landslide to any group much over 40% we could see parliament overwhelmingly Leave.

Imagine that the referendum vote is for Remain. No-one really thinks the Leave camp will go away. Probably UKIP would mutate into a movement. It will be a major issue for the 2020 referendum.

You make the common error of the zealot (no offense intended), namely that everyone else considers this issue as important as you do.

For your landslide victory to happen, voters would have to put this issue above party loyalty and every other issue that is facing them on a national and local level.

Granted, it would be a constitutional crisis, but as it stands only 138 constituencies look possible. Certainly Varoufakis would have a vote in Parliament to negate a Brexit referendum result and then call a general election.

UKIP can join with old Thatcherite Tories and become the English National Party.

 

[Jason]

Most voters don't understand lots. A democrat has to believe in the wisdom of crowds.

 

[Drifterwood]

Most voters don't understand lots. A democrat has to believe in the wisdom of crowds.

Or ultimately its Monarch.

 

[Jason]

You make the common error of the zealot (no offense intended), namely that everyone else considers this issue as important as you do.

A reasonable point. I see EU issues including the sovereign debt crisis and the EU referendum as the most important political and economic issues of a lifetime. It has to be said that an overwhelming majority of people have no idea what sovereign debt is or how it can impact on them. It has to be said that there are enormous numbers still undecided about the referendum and suggestions that many will not bother to vote.

The best chance for Remain is Project Fear. The best chance for Leave is patriotism, almost like supporting your nation in a sporting event - do you back the UK or Germany? These are both simple messages and don't require any knowledge of bond yields or the difference between a free market and free trade. The key point is that neither side's argument has much to do with the reality.

I doubt Remain can do much more or less than it is already doing. For Leave the challenge is to get a message out. Debates will help Leave. Events in the EU could also, even say a general strike in France. I think it perfectly possible that the result will be determined by some event as late as the day before the referendum. It could also be determined by something wrong like the "Red Letter Scare" in the 1924 election (when the Daily Mail published what is now usually regarded as a forged letter). There's potential intervention from the Generals (which is of course the Palace) which could be interesting - or perhaps not. I think there's enormous volatility. It could well come down to the sort of surge the LibDems had in 2010 when Nick Clegg performed very well in two televised debates.

Bluntly I don't think there is any sense of certainty on the outcome. Betting odds are about 4:1 for Leave. What were they for a Conservative majority government before the last election? There's unease about polling methodology. An average of the polls certainly shows Remain ahead, but not by all that much.

Is there any precedent for the UK parliament (or indeed a devolved UK parliament or assembly) ignoring the result of a referendum? I accept that this is in theory possible as parliament is sovereign, but I don't think it has ever happened. Presumably there would be a constitutional crisis. I'm assuming that a Leave vote would lead to a resignation of Cameron and let's say Johnson as PM. In this circumstance it becomes up to a pro-Leave PM to manage the process. Presumably he would support a pro-Leave cabinet. Someone would do the parliamentary arithmetic. I think in this circumstance most Conservative MPs would support a bill to Leave, and so would some Labour and others. I also think many would abstain. I think it would go through. Of course Treaties can be signed or abrogated by the PM and Cabinet, so ultimately I don't think parliament would have to act to make Leave happen. It could seek to block, but that really would be messy.

 

[dandelion]

A reasonable point. I see EU issues including the sovereign debt crisis and the EU referendum as the most important political and economic issues of a lifetime.

The irony is you may very well be right. But that does not mean anyone else thinks it important.

The best chance for Remain is Project Fear.

personally I think the best chance for remain is project truth. We have argued about this for years. Instinctively I think the UK needs to be part of a bigger block for reasons of the tides of history. It might be that the UK is the second most influential country on the planet, it certainly is one of the richest. But we live in a world where there is in reality no superpower any more as there were in imperial days 100 years ago. No country can act unilaterally any more. That is because super power these days has more to do with economics than bullets. You fundamentally disagree. independent and isolared countries these days get by by doing whatever they are told by their coalition neighbours. Like switzerland does. Like Norway does. In ww2 Switzerland did what it was told and laundered gold for the Nazis. Now it obeys EU regulations. So that is the sort of independence you are advocating? No independence at all.

The best chance for Leave is patriotism, almost like supporting your nation in a sporting event - do you back the UK or Germany?

Ah, you mean dulce et decorum est pro patria mori, sort of patriotism. Better to be poor and die for freedom than live , er, rich and comfortable within the EU? The reality of leaving the EU would be giving away a significant chunk of the world power we do have. You really want us to demand freedom like zimbabwe did so successfully? And soooo many others?

Is there any precedent for the UK parliament (or indeed a devolved UK parliament or assembly) ignoring the result of a referendum?

Why not? they always ignore their own manifestos.

 

[Jason]

@dandelion I would like to see the campaigns of both Remain and Leave deserving the name "project truth". It isn't going to happen. We now have two campaigns which both have a semi-detached relationship to the truth. I have time for people on both sides of the argument who really are trying to do the right thing. Unfortunately I'm not seeing much of this.

I just don't understand the line the Labour Party is taking. Okay I don't understand the LP full stop, but the present line amazes me. The EU is the bankers' mafia. It is the excesses of the capitalist system, the sort of place where corrupted socialism meets corrupted capitalism, the world of Animal Farm. It sees Greeks as expendable. Is Labour selling out the working class of the UK? Has Labour decided to throw in its lot with the corrupt mafia that is the EU?

For that matter I'm disgusted with the split within the Conservative Party. Of course the economic arguments are complex, and there might well be conservative voters who will be poorer if we leave the EU. However the Conservative party believes in democracy. It believes in supporting everyone in society. It believes in freedom. It believes in an end to the old order of dulce et decorum est and the triumph of a new order of genuine equality.

 

[dandelion]

@dandelion The EU is the bankers' mafia. It is the excesses of the capitalist system, the sort of place where corrupted socialism meets corrupted capitalism, the world of Animal Farm.

Oddly it seems to me more correct to describe the UK as the bankers Mafia. it is the Uk which has been resisting new regulation. Also the Uk which has freely bankrolled its banks by printing money. If anything, the EU is making a stand for probity by bankers.

For that matter I'm disgusted with the split within the Conservative Party. Of course the economic arguments are complex, and there might well be conservative voters who will be poorer if we leave the EU.

But of course, they are the ones more likely to escape any negative financial consequences and can indulge their fantasies of restoring the empire....

 

[rbkwp]

ooopps Cam and his cohort

not Dands and Jason? maybe haha