Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

Jason

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Logically there are three sorts of solutions to the Northern Ireland / Ireland border

1) There is a hard border NI/Ireland. No-one wants this. There are significant practical problems with a border which rarely follows rivers or mountains. Many farms have land both sides. Many thousands commute across the border. County Donegal does have a neck of land joining it to the rest of the Republic of Ireland but is generally accessed through NI. Religious boundaries cross the border.

2) There is a hard border NI/GB, ie on the ferry and plane routes. This is quite easy to put into effect. However it would mean NI is exposed to EU migration (excluding migration from Ireland).

3) There is no border whatsoever because Ireland takes the same deal as the UK.

I think (1) just isn't going to happen. (2) is practical but it would cause a lot of unease among the Unionist community in NI. (3) is the one no-one is yet talking about very much. However it is quite possible that Ireland will decide that the UK's deal with the EU would suit Ireland also. Ireland will be geographically isolated from the EU. While there are direct ferries to Roscoff and Cherbourg they are slow and expensive, for example Dublin-Cherbourg is 19hrs and the shortest Rosslare-Roscoff is 17hrs (and Roscoff is a long way from anywhere!) Almost all Ireland's trade with the EU goes through UK. I know transit arrangements are possible, but they are bureaucratic. Excluding trade which is notionally badged via Europoort, Irish trade with UK is not much smaller than with rest of EU combined. Logically Ireland should be working to keep its primary trading destination border free.

I'm increasingly confident that Ireland will take the UK Brexit deal. I'm therefore suggesting Ireland will be the second nation out of the EU.
 
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Jason

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I don't see any connection between Catalonia and Scotland.

I'm not sure that I see any connection either.

However Scotland and Catalonia DO see a connection and support one another in their efforts towards independence. The Spanish government certainly sees a parallel.

Curiously Catalonia goes out of its way to support Gibraltar. I don't see any connection here either!
 
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rbkwp

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yes it was Sturgeon, aged brain fade by me
incorrect,re economics and Scotland with my change of mind
Scotland out of the UK prior yes
Scotland to remain with the UK now would be preferable, to avoid Eu USA interference,but more so to support the UK is my thinking now

things have changed,and i am entitled to change with it,surely

Russells philosophy has nothing to do with it huh,sort of thing id throw in ha

and in reference/preference maybe
altho i do understand,your quite able to throw in whatever,in response to anothers opinion,even if i asked nicely ha
overly analyze all you want dands,feel i have LPSG PHd duh,graduated huh ha..


i have no interest at all in continual dialouge dands
i respectfully answered your post and choose to leave it at that
over anaylisis/tooing and froing annoys and disturbs me

rbkwp, Sunday at 10:39 AM


yep
beginning to think the USA is influencing the Eu now, nasty actions
Eu loves it, glad the UKs out of there clutches ...
 
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I'm not sure there'll be any problem keeping a relatively open border with Ireland.

Neither UK or Ireland are part of Schengen, and as island nations, our Common Travel Area is relatively easy to enforce, as long as we keep hard external borders.

The problem arises with freedom of movement to Ireland for EU citizens, but not freedom of movement to the UK. I guess... Irish citizens freedom to travel to UK/NI will continue, and there will be fairly loose border controls (Irish/NI citizens could have a pass that ensured trouble-free entry?), but checks on EU nationals crossing the border from Ireland to UK?

Might require some thinking, but shouldn't be impossible.

The peace process, and current situation with N & S Ireland seem best to keep as is. Any talk of Northern Ireland having to reunite with Southern does seem like an exaggeration put forward by disillusioned Remainers to justify their own position.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36888838

Scotland is tricker, but still manageable with some clever and sensitive thinking.
 
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Jason

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Scotland is tricker, but still manageable with some clever and sensitive thinking.

Sturgeon has already had clear answers from the European Commission and from several EU nations: if Scotland breaks away from the UK then Scotland must re-apply for membership, which will take time.

Post-Brexit a Scotland in the EU and presumably pledged to join Schengen will have a hard border with England. That will damage Scotland a lot.

Scotland right now is broke (low oil prices) and is being supported by rest of UK.
 
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Jason

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I know none of us in the UK really believe polls anymore, but here is the latest from ICM:

Conservative 43%
Labour 27%
UKIP 13%
LibDem 8%

Conservative leads Labour by a massive 16 points. And it gets even better: in England the lead is 21 points. Most of the Labour marginals are in England, so this hurts Labour even more.

I think an autumn or spring General Election suddenly looks that bit more likely. And this would support the Brexit process.
 
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Not bothered about an election really - I'd be quite happy to give her four years, and judge the Tories on the progress by then. :) But who knows...

I think... all the attacks in France and Germany could have unintended effects. Apart from it being scary, horrific, and unacceptable - I wonder if the German and French public might lash out against Merkel and Hollande for the lax immigration policies, as a means of coping with the heightened stress, and change to daily life?

I sincerely hope not, but I wonder if we'll see Merkel replaced by someone much more hardline, keener to swiftly unite Europe as one bloc (the pretext being to protect against terrorism), and also much less sympathetic to Britain's position. :/ Time will tell...
 

Jason

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I think Hollande has pretty much conceded that he cannot win the presidential election next year. The two that go through to the second round will probably include Marine Le Pen. She will probably face Alain Juppe or Nicholas Sarkozy. In order to win they will have to demonstrate that they are eurosceptic.

In Germany polls are showing the CDU is down, with Greens and AfD among those taking the votes.

Both France and Germany may see some sudden, sharp electoral changes. And yes, Euroscepticism is on the rise.
 
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Drifterwood

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I would not call it Euroscepticism.

Europe has many problems, but the most immediate are self inflicted. Leaders can be rightly seen as arrogant and distant from the concerns of ordinary people. The voters.

I can see a Europe redefining its citizenship and immigration policy. If this happens as fast as the results of Europe's errors, then I can see the concerns of Brexit being satisfied and a general election with a mandate to stay in a changed Europe.

Interesting to note that students voted 6 to 1 to Remain.
 

dandelion

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I'm not sure there'll be any problem keeping a relatively open border with Ireland. Neither UK or Ireland are part of Schengen, and as island nations, our Common Travel Area is relatively easy to enforce, as long as we keep hard external borders.
For the two countries, yes, but Ireland is bound to follow the EU treaties, which require it to mainain borders with non-EU countries such as the UK. that is the problem.

The problem arises with freedom of movement to Ireland for EU citizens, but not freedom of movement to the UK.
No. The problem is freedom of movement (including of goods, etc) into Ireland from the Uk

The peace process, and current situation with N & S Ireland seem best to keep as is.
Exactly.The problem is this would violate the EU treaty.

Any talk of Northern Ireland having to reunite with Southern does seem like an exaggeration put forward by disillusioned Remainers to justify their own position.
Not really. More yet another point Leave failed to explain to their voters. When both countries were members all was fine. If they are not then a problem arises which would require a special EU wide deal.

I can see a Europe redefining its citizenship and immigration policy.
Yes, so can I. I have repeatedly posted that this is the way I see the Uk getting control of migration. As also stanley Johnson's view. The time seems ripe to press for internal EU reform, and Cameron had already been doing that.
 

dandelion

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Interesting article attacking Liam Fox, the new trade secretary. it argues that far from boosting our sovereignty, Fox is set to sell out Britain to all and sundry. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/27/sovereignty-corporations-liam-fox-eu

It seems the Uk needs to prepare for a wave of immigration post Brexit, and also will have a lot more difficulty deporting offenders back to the EU. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ict-surge-immigration-amid-brexit-uncertainty. People will recall he was dismissed as defence secretary for having too close relations with defence contractors.

And while visiting the guardian website, I see they have also prepared a summary of the options facing the UK. They argue May now has to be simultaneously more eurosceptic than Cameron, but also more accommodating and enthusiastic about making deals with all the EU leaders. It continues to observe the paradox that Britain needs to maintain free trade if it is not to suffer massively in its economy, but still has to try to satisfy leavist demands which are incompatible with any form of EU membership. It argues she now has to do a very much better job of explaining to the Uk population the choices they face than anyone did in the referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-uk-brexit-choices-pro-europe-to-leave-europe
 
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Jason

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I would not call it Euroscepticism.

Europe has many problems, but the most immediate are self inflicted. Leaders can be rightly seen as arrogant and distant from the concerns of ordinary people. The voters.

I can see a Europe redefining its citizenship and immigration policy. If this happens as fast as the results of Europe's errors, then I can see the concerns of Brexit being satisfied and a general election with a mandate to stay in a changed Europe.

Interesting to note that students voted 6 to 1 to Remain.

Welcome back Drifterwood!

Yes I think we may well be seeing a period of rapid change within the EU, including new policies on citizenship and immigration. We may see more and more suspensions of Schengen perhaps amounting to a de facto end of Schengen.

And politicians still don't get it. A majority of the people of the UK want accountable national democracy. This is what people mean by "give us our country back". We do not want decisions taken by the EU elite, by the unaccountable men in grey suits. I'm personally disgusted by the EU's actions in Greece which I see as a crime of economic colonisation which is the moral equivalent of a crime against humanity. I agree the people of the UK aren't expressing it in quite these terms, but they are saying that we are not European. And that in a nutshell is it: the UK is not a European nation. I am not a European.

We need our political leaders to lead us out of the muddle. The politicians who think it is relevant to argue now that the referendum should have been conducted on different grounds than those set by parliament (and therefore should be set aside) have missed the point. The politicians who say that Leave lied have also missed the point, especially as the lies that have come to light are mainly from the Remain side. We need our politicians to give direction. May is right to say "Brexit means Brexit" and right to emphasise that the UK will make a success of it - but she needs to deliver. We need some inspirational Brexit leadership. We need a song to sing, and I really do mean this.

Right now we have a Conservative party that has got behind Brexit (though there may be stresses under the surface) and appears united and confident. We have Corbyn who is flying by the red flag and the EU banner and inspiring the Momentum mob. Right now there is only one show in town - and that is Brexit. Conservative support is soaring as Labour support wanes.

Every problem is an opportunity. On a personal note I've spent the last few weeks chasing non-EU contacts. I've had a surprise lead from Iceland (and they are doing the chasing), think I might be able to put together an agreement with a Canadian organisation, and I have a possible link with Australia that has just landed on my desk. My big European partner is in Switzerland, and with the Swiss Franc decoupled from the euro and the pound down my income stream here is up quite a bit. I'm struggling a bit with EU contacts right now, but even here the outcome might not be as bad as all that. I think I'm implicitly being offered a choice between doing business with Germany and Australia, and Australia is going to win. Distance hardly matters - I Skype with Germany and can as well Skype with Australia. Politicians need to be shouting about the new opportunities.

The people of the UK have spoken. 52% isn't as clear as I would have liked, but it is a decision. NI's concerns will be addressed. Sturgeon is making political capital out of the issue, yet there's no reason to think an independence referendum would get a different result. England and Wales have given a clear result. Politicians have to accept the world has changed.

European politicians seem to be reactive. In France we are going to see Marine Le Pen force her opponents to adopt a more Eurosceptic stance. They should be adopting it because they believe it. In Germany the CDU is under pressure. The whole of Eastern Europe is saying no to migrants. Italy and Spain are increasingly tied up with internal matters. (Let me know when Spain has a government.) European politicians mostly don't get it, and the nasty right is moving into the vacuum. From Netherlands to Greece to France it is the hard right that seem to be listening, and this really is worrying. We need the centre right to listen.

A new look for Europe should unravel much of Lisbon. I know it is not as simple as repealing Lisbon, but in a sense this is what is needed.
 
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Has anyone gone on to the streets of Europe and asked their opinion?

Get out there Jason, get the down low and 100% truth for us all to hear. Just do it. In this day and age surely it is possible?
 
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rbkwp

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personally think if permitted a say on the Eu
gonna say it anyway
reckon its the end for most things Eu,if anything,prime reason will be the dissapearance of those two
Merkel Hollande


I think Hollande has pretty much conceded that he cannot win the presidential election next year.

ps
pre empt

you will/may
Q
what makes you think that ?

A
similar reason as i thought BREXIT would win ..
 
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903164

UK growth sped-up unexpectedly pre-Brexit (altho, I'm not quite sure why it was unexpected? Presumably people wanted to sort things before the uncertainty of the vote outcome?).

Slightly better news than expected, since economists were convinced we'd be heading into negotiations from a position of weakness. We probably still are, to a degree, but at least the economy was holding up, pre-vote, better than expected - which is heartening as far as the underlying vitality of the economy is concerned.
 
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Jason

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From the Remain camp:
Economic bad news = caused by Brexit
Economic good news = despite Brexit

The property market is up across the UK (according to Wimpey). Stock market up. Jobs up (eg 5,000 new McDonalds jobs announced today). Investment in the UK is happening (eg Smithkline Beecham today).

Of course Remain forget that the forecast the end of the world for the day after the Brexit vote and now say, "but the UK hasn't left yet". However markets are accepting Brexit. We have a couple of years to rebalance.

There was a view that there would be a Brexit-recession. A response was that there might be a recession, but it wouldn't be caused by Brexit. Arguably we're due for a recession. However there's now the idea that we might be looking at a Brexit boom.
 
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eurotop40

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From the Remain camp:
Economic bad news = caused by Brexit
Economic good news = despite Brexit

The property market is up across the UK (according to Wimpey). Stock market up. Jobs up (eg 5,000 new McDonalds jobs announced today). Investment in the UK is happening (eg Smithkline Beecham today).

Of course Remain forget that the forecast the end of the world for the day after the Brexit vote and now say, "but the UK hasn't left yet". However markets are accepting Brexit. We have a couple of years to rebalance.

There was a view that there would be a Brexit-recession. A response was that there might be a recession, but it wouldn't be caused by Brexit. Arguably we're due for a recession. However there's now the idea that we might be looking at a Brexit boom.

Brexit has NOT happened yet.
 

dandelion

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From the Remain camp:
Economic bad news = caused by Brexit
Economic good news = despite Brexit
This is indeed the problem, and may be why we could end up leaving before we discover the difficulties, and therefore rejoining rather quickly on bad terms.

The property market is up across the UK (according to Wimpey). Stock market up. Jobs up (eg 5,000 new McDonalds jobs announced today). Investment in the UK is happening (eg Smithkline Beecham today).
Seems to be some people taking a profit on the fallen pound to buy in the Uk. of course, buying up Uk companies cheap may end as very bad news.

Of course Remain forget that the forecast the end of the world for the day after the Brexit vote and now say, "but the UK hasn't left yet".
I dont recall that at all Jason. rather it was leave who were talking up the idea that Remain were saying this. And it seems this continues... Today the news seems to be talking about banks and the risks to them if they lose 'passporting' rights. Which of course depends on the outcome of this vote, which is still years away.

However markets are accepting Brexit. We have a couple of years to rebalance.
But that rebalanceing may be companies pulling out of the UK....
 

dandelion

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And politicians still don't get it. A majority of the people of the UK want accountable national democracy. This is what people mean by "give us our country back". We do not want decisions taken by the EU elite, by the unaccountable men in grey suits.
Ah Jason, you still miss the point. The men in grey suits work in the palace of westminster and have nice london homes paid for by the british taxpayer.

We need our political leaders to lead us out of the muddle.
Yes, but they show no signs of reforming the Uk electoral system....

The politicians who think it is relevant to argue now that the referendum should have been conducted on different grounds than those set by parliament (and therefore should be set aside) have missed the point.
parliament created an advisory referendum which is non binding..... Leave even argued it should not be binding...

The politicians who say that Leave lied have also missed the point, especially as the lies that have come to light are mainly from the Remain side.
er what? leave said the day after that there would be no cuts in immigration. They said there would be no windfall from EU fees. They said there would be no rollback of regulations, and they seem quite keen to stay in the EU one way or another. The Leave campaign had no consensus on what they wanted instead of membership as now. What many of the people seemed to want is more of the benefits of membership flowing to them, and leave especially did not promise to do this in any way.

Every problem is an opportunity. On a personal note I've spent the last few weeks chasing non-EU contacts. I've had a surprise lead from Iceland (and they are doing the chasing), think I might be able to put together an agreement with a Canadian organisation, and I have a possible link with Australia that has just landed on my desk.
I am puzzled what was stopping you from doing this last year also?

I think I'm implicitly being offered a choice between doing business with Germany and Australia, and Australia is going to win.
Ah, you mean you have been so busy dealing wih germanyyou had no time to deal with anyone else. So you will not be better off. And clearly you have been spending a lot of time on trying to safeguard your business...

The people of the UK have spoken. 52% isn't as clear as I would have liked,
It isnt clear at all. What it means is 2/3 of the people did not support the decision, and politically if it all goes horribly wrong they will be out for political blood.

A new look for Europe should unravel much of Lisbon. I know it is not as simple as repealing Lisbon, but in a sense this is what is needed.
In other words, we should be staying in the EU and working for reform which suits us. Thats the way to do it.
 

Jason

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There is a sense of progress in five weeks. The UK has a Brexit government and team. A decision has not yet been made on a General Election (it has been said there won't be one which might suggest there will be or might mean what it says) but if a direct parliamentary mandate is felt to be necessary it can be obtained. The EU is appointing its negotiating team. There have been talks between UK and many EU leaders.

Every day brings Brexit a bit closer. We now have an inevitable direction of travel.

Meanwhile the EU and euro problems muddle on. The EU still remains mired in crisis. I see the IMF has now criticised the Greek bailout - shame they didn't do it at the time.
 
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