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Logically there are three sorts of solutions to the Northern Ireland / Ireland border
1) There is a hard border NI/Ireland. No-one wants this. There are significant practical problems with a border which rarely follows rivers or mountains. Many farms have land both sides. Many thousands commute across the border. County Donegal does have a neck of land joining it to the rest of the Republic of Ireland but is generally accessed through NI. Religious boundaries cross the border.
2) There is a hard border NI/GB, ie on the ferry and plane routes. This is quite easy to put into effect. However it would mean NI is exposed to EU migration (excluding migration from Ireland).
3) There is no border whatsoever because Ireland takes the same deal as the UK.
I think (1) just isn't going to happen. (2) is practical but it would cause a lot of unease among the Unionist community in NI. (3) is the one no-one is yet talking about very much. However it is quite possible that Ireland will decide that the UK's deal with the EU would suit Ireland also. Ireland will be geographically isolated from the EU. While there are direct ferries to Roscoff and Cherbourg they are slow and expensive, for example Dublin-Cherbourg is 19hrs and the shortest Rosslare-Roscoff is 17hrs (and Roscoff is a long way from anywhere!) Almost all Ireland's trade with the EU goes through UK. I know transit arrangements are possible, but they are bureaucratic. Excluding trade which is notionally badged via Europoort, Irish trade with UK is not much smaller than with rest of EU combined. Logically Ireland should be working to keep its primary trading destination border free.
I'm increasingly confident that Ireland will take the UK Brexit deal. I'm therefore suggesting Ireland will be the second nation out of the EU.
1) There is a hard border NI/Ireland. No-one wants this. There are significant practical problems with a border which rarely follows rivers or mountains. Many farms have land both sides. Many thousands commute across the border. County Donegal does have a neck of land joining it to the rest of the Republic of Ireland but is generally accessed through NI. Religious boundaries cross the border.
2) There is a hard border NI/GB, ie on the ferry and plane routes. This is quite easy to put into effect. However it would mean NI is exposed to EU migration (excluding migration from Ireland).
3) There is no border whatsoever because Ireland takes the same deal as the UK.
I think (1) just isn't going to happen. (2) is practical but it would cause a lot of unease among the Unionist community in NI. (3) is the one no-one is yet talking about very much. However it is quite possible that Ireland will decide that the UK's deal with the EU would suit Ireland also. Ireland will be geographically isolated from the EU. While there are direct ferries to Roscoff and Cherbourg they are slow and expensive, for example Dublin-Cherbourg is 19hrs and the shortest Rosslare-Roscoff is 17hrs (and Roscoff is a long way from anywhere!) Almost all Ireland's trade with the EU goes through UK. I know transit arrangements are possible, but they are bureaucratic. Excluding trade which is notionally badged via Europoort, Irish trade with UK is not much smaller than with rest of EU combined. Logically Ireland should be working to keep its primary trading destination border free.
I'm increasingly confident that Ireland will take the UK Brexit deal. I'm therefore suggesting Ireland will be the second nation out of the EU.
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