Failed North Korean Missile Aimed at Hawaii?

Jessica

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The first world, industrialized nations, including the US, are living in a time of great prerogative.
These nations, including ours, are entitled to the riches of the planet, and, more directly, to oil. The great problem, is, that this oil belongs to those nations that are struggling economically, unstable politically, or plain and simply do not like the west.
From South America ( Venezuela ) to the middle east , through West Africa, the key to financial stability, sustained economic developement and progress lies in the hands of those nations that are in turnmoil.
Industrialized nations neglected the rest of the world , in my opinion, under the false believe that , humanity is about us, the rest of the world does not matter.
Decades of neglect have made the situation unbearable, and, irreversible. and there is no solution but to embrace the third world, allow it to develop to bring the world standard to a more even level, and then, develop the planet as a whole.
Wars, and more inequality will lead to more turnmoil and more wars and bad feelings . Nothing short of an holocaust would clean those areas to make them manageable by the western nations, and, that is not posible, morally , nor physically speaking.
At the same time, I do not see our first world , willing to help the rst of the world to raise standard of living. Like in any situation, when one side raises, the other has to recede. In west Germany, it took a big sacrifice to bring east Germany up to standards. Imagine a world wide effort. I do not think our world is morally ready to take such step. As a result, we are leading our civilization to oblivion.
Either the powers of the world realize that we are one only world, or we are going to see our world, as we know it, go down the drain.
Our industrialized world is like a sand castle. All of what we live for, and all of our progress if based on that natural resourse that is in the hands of the "rest" of the world.
 

SomeGuyOverThere

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The real problem, as I see it, is that we simply cannot have the entire world at 1st world level. There are not enough resources to sustain everyone in western excess.

So, what has to happen is both a raiseing of the 3rd world and a lowering of the first. Naturally while we love the idea of the former, the latter is inconceiveable to the overwhelming majoirty of westerners.

In this situtation, we can't have our cake, eat it, and have everyone live happily ever after. Somebody gets the cake, and everyone else can fuck off.
 

noface60

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Can't we just get rid of them?!?!?!

Evaporate North Korea w/warhead + Evaporate Afghanistan (the bad part) w/ warhead = Happy Solution


Seriously, I am getting tired of this Korea head guy. Either he wants to be a peaceful human being and not destroy the planet, or he wants to gets his ass blown up by the rest of the world.
 

Jessica

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He can not get blown. If that were to happen, China, Japan, Korea, Russia, As well as Canada and the US would receive a radiation bath.
 

PussyWellington

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I don't buy the Hawaii story. Lets face it, if you launch a long-range missle with the intention of dropping it in the ocean down range, that trajectory will eventually cross some land mass. And that assumes they could accurately determine the missle's intended trajectory after only 40sec of less-than-stable flight. IMHO this situation, like most others, is being spun and whooped-up for political purposes.

But I do have some other theories on this. One is that China, who financially backs North Korea, is using this "launch" so that the U.S.A will reveal the location of its defence systems. And my other theory is that the current military industrial complex is trying to garner support for more spending and the "war on terror".
 

ClaireTalon

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Dr Rock said:
the korean icbms are essentially oversized scuds - 60s-era missile technology, and not even a very impressive example of that. clairetalon is correct in that their tactical weaponry is a far more significant threat to south korea. just because most of their shit is native knockoffs of chinese knockoffs of ancient soviet systems don't mean it doesn't work, and they have plenty of hardware and no shortage of brainwashed operators. the NKPR is quite capable of prosecuting an extremely ugly ground war if it ever chose to. while south korea remains a close ally of the US, the eventual outcome would never be in doubt, but the potential for body counts on both sides would be pretty grim.

When Iraq started firing Scuds at Israel in 1991, they used a self-"improved" chinese copy of the russian export version. The only thing the Iraqi engineers forgot about (or hoped not to happen) was that the apex of their improved missiles' trajectory was above the atmosphere, and on re-entry, the unshielded missiles fell apart due to excessive heat, so what rained down on Israel were the warheads, and the fuel tanks, separately. And the high-tech, well-developed Patriot SAM's we delivered to Israel to protect themselves against those attacks did exactly what the system engineers told them to do: They took out the largest chunks of dropping metal: The fuel tanks. A good reason not to underestimate the PRNK tactical weapon systems.

I'm not sure whether NK really was really aiming at Hawaii, or had in mind to let the missile come down there. We see it was an explosion, but what if this was just a planned show. Maybe the intention was to launch it, let it fly far enough for the inevitable observers to track it and calculate the possible trajectory, and then trigger the self-destructor. They have enough enemies in that area, and this was a way to make them figure out who's within the range of their missiles.
 

dong20

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ClaireTalon said:
I'm not sure whether NK really was really aiming at Hawaii, or had in mind to let the missile come down there. We see it was an explosion, but what if this was just a planned show. Maybe the intention was to launch it, let it fly far enough for the inevitable observers to track it and calculate the possible trajectory, and then trigger the self-destructor. They have enough enemies in that area, and this was a way to make them figure out who's within the range of their missiles.

Interesting info about the Scuds, I knew the failure rate was high but didn't know if that was poor design or incompetent use... or a combination of both.

I suspect you are right about Nrth Korea, as I suggested earlier it was probably posturing. While the North Korean leadership may be hell bent on what at face value seems a dangerous path they are far from suicidal. Keeping such a regime intact speaks volumes about the 'competence' of its leadership and I'm the 'message' was understood quite well by its intended audience.
 

ClaireTalon

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dong20 said:
Interesting info about the Scuds, I knew the failure rate was high but didn't know if that was poor design or incompetent use... or a combination of both.

I suspect you are right about Nrth Korea, as I suggested earlier it was probably posturing. While the North Korean leadership may be hell bent on what at face value seems a dangerous path they are far from suicidal. Keeping such a regime intact speaks volumes about the 'competence' of its leadership and I'm the 'message' was understood quite well by its intended audience.

In this case, more a design error. The scud is a pretty crude weapon, but its crudeness is its biggest advantage, no complicated electronics, which makes it pretty insensitive to electronic countermeasures. But I understand it must have had a rather complicated inertial navigation system, which weighed up all the advantages, especially since the chinese fucked up copying that. The accuracy was something different.

There's still the possibility that the North Koreans may have these problems with their own missile navigation. We have figured out now that they are able to engage targets across 7,000 km distance, but at what accuracy, and what reliability? Maybe their missile design isn't so good after all, and they aborted the test launch as long as they still could keep their face, which is pretty important around Asia.
 

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I do not buy the Hawaii theory.
That would had been an open act of war. The response by the US, and the rest of the international community would had been much different than the casual approach taken.

Firing at Hawaii would be an open act of war.
The intention was to fire the misiles to the open ocean, international airspace.
 

Jessica

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ClaireTalon said:
When Iraq started firing Scuds at Israel in 1991, they used a self-"improved" chinese copy of the russian export version. The only thing the Iraqi engineers forgot about (or hoped not to happen) was that the apex of their improved missiles' trajectory was above the atmosphere, and on re-entry, the unshielded missiles fell apart due to excessive heat, so what rained down on Israel were the warheads, and the fuel tanks, separately. And the high-tech, well-developed Patriot SAM's we delivered to Israel to protect themselves against those attacks did exactly what the system engineers told them to do: They took out the largest chunks of dropping metal: The fuel tanks. A good reason not to underestimate the PRNK tactical weapon systems.

quote]
Wow Claire, those are interesting and technical facts, you surprised me, you are a woman that comands respect.:bowdown:
Humbly submit ....:smile:
 

dong20

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Jessica said:
I do not buy the Hawaii theory.
That would had been an open act of war. The response by the US, and the rest of the international community would had been much different than the casual approach taken.

Firing at Hawaii would be an open act of war.

Well yes of course it would, which is of course why it didn't reach Hawaii or even close. Claire may be right about it being merely a targetting error, I'm not entirely convinced of that but of course without access to the tracking data who can say for sure if the theoretical impact site would have been; Hawaii, international waters 'nearby' or somewhere else entirely or indeed if the whole thing was a simple foul up. However, if the sole rationale behind the test was to rattle western cages then I'd say in that sense it was pretty successful.

The North Korean leadership may be mad but they're not crazy. While I don't for one second respect their ideology I do respect their courage in sticking two fingers up at the west.:biggrin1:
 

ClaireTalon

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dong20 said:
Well yes of course it would, which is of course why it didn't reach Hawaii or even close. Claire may be right about it being merely a targetting error, I'm not entirely convinced of that but of course without access to the tracking data who can say for sure if the theoretical impact site would have been; Hawaii, international waters 'nearby' or somewhere else entirely or indeed if the whole thing was a simple foul up. However, if the sole rationale behind the test was to rattle western cages then I'd say in that sense it was pretty successful.

The North Korean leadership may be mad but they're not crazy. While I don't for one second respect their ideology I do respect their courage in sticking two fingers up at the west.:biggrin1:

What I was trying to say is that they had doubts about their own missiles' accuracy. As you say, they have some mad streaks, but they must have been fully aware that a warhead, even a dummy, crashing somewhere in American territorial waters or even worse, on American soil, would have doomed their miserably little country, so they preferred destroying their missile in-flight as soon as they could be sure the potential performance could be calculated by western intelligence.

I again say, I'm far more worried about their short- and medium range weapon systems. Even if they could cobble together a small force of long range missiles with nuclear warheads, they should have enough wits together to know that a counter attack would wipe them off the landscape once and for all.
 

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My uneducated take is that this brinksmanship is the calculated ploy of an extortionist.

It doesn't matter how crude the tactics or the technology may be. Just wait and see what kind of economic rewards get negotiated to pacify North Korea in the end.

An invasion is rather unthinkable, as Dr Rock points out.

The firestorm that would erupt on the Korean peninsula would render it much like Dresden looked after that incendiary assault. I'm not talking about American nuclear weapons or a Shock and Awe drubbing. I'm referring to the masses of short range weapons aimed at South Korea.

Seoul has over 11 million people in a country of 47 million, and is only 230 km from Pyongyang. The North doesn't need a nuclear weapon to fry Seoul. They just need to be first off the mark.
 

D_Herin_Ghan

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You know, everyone says "there's no oil", but has anyone seen a drop from Iraq? The US has left that largely untouched, otherwise the Iraqi economy would collapse. North Korea is starving for attention. Their people are starving, there is turmoil within the higherups of the country, Lil Kim has to worry about being unseated. He may well just be firing these missles as a desperate attempt to show his people he is doing a "good job" or has made North Korea "powerful". Wouldn't be surprising at all if that was the case.
 

Lordpendragon

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rawbone8 said:
My uneducated take is that this brinksmanship is the calculated ploy of an extortionist.

It doesn't matter how crude the tactics or the technology may be. Just wait and see what kind of economic rewards get negotiated to pacify North Korea in the end.

Not uneducated at all - this was the view of my Korean colleagues when I was there the other week.
 

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Last year, I've seen a short piece on television about the the visit of the North Korean Secretary of State (vice) to China. My impression is that even the Chinese don't really like them, at least they didn't show. In fact, I guess the Chinese themselves feel threatened by the North Korean policy, probably being torn between their own communist system and views, and their western economics starting to come to life. So, we can say that the North Korean political leadership starts to feel really isolated now, and needed this test also as a call to the Chinese, to remind them that they're within the range.

Otherwise, I'm with Dr Rock, and rawbone. No matter how obsolete and aged their equipment is, in the case of an attack, the surprise momentum and the geography of South Korea will work for them and give them an advantage that's hard to break. But if they can't advance as quick as they need, their forces should be no hard opponent to more modern armies.