Good news for Democrats on both sides

Discussion in 'Et Cetera, Et Cetera' started by D_Thoraxis_Biggulp, May 20, 2008.

  1. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2005
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    0
    RealClearPolitics - California Head-to-Head Polls

    Whether Obama gets the nod or Hillary either fudges the math or pulls a Truman, both are projected to beat McCain in California. Somewhat ironically, Obama is predicted to win by a larger margin in spite of having lost the primary to Clinton.
     
  2. ZOS23xy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2007
    Messages:
    5,073
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    directly above the center of the earth
    Projected politics....sorry, not realistic unless it's a week off, and not six months plus into the future....
     
  3. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2005
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    0
    The exact numbers are likely off, but RCP has been rather good at predicting the winners in the primaries.
     
  4. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2005
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    0
    Besides, this still means that either candidate is on track to win the election, depending on who gets the nomination.
     
  5. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2007
    Messages:
    10,516
    Likes Received:
    7
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Boston, MA / New York, NY
    Interesting site... may need to do some math here for some other findings.
    Lots of the info on this are merely "projections" at this time, but interesting to look at the data.
     
  6. ZOS23xy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2007
    Messages:
    5,073
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    directly above the center of the earth
    Still it recalls the image of people three years ago, announcing they would be running for president, and how many remain? The Obama Hilly thang is just bad politics and worse manners.
     
  7. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2005
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    0
    Politics1 - 2008 U.S. Presidential Election (P2008)

    Quite a few remain.
    It's like this in every election. A bunch of Republicans and Democrats announce they're running the year before. By the end of June in the year of the election, typically only one of each remains as well as a bunch of independent and miscellaneous candidates with little or no media coverage.
     
  8. ZOS23xy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2007
    Messages:
    5,073
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    directly above the center of the earth
    Some people announce three years before hand they'll run. I guess for filling columns in newspapers it's fine. But for reality, I tend to ignore most politics until the January of the election year. I am jaded by the whole process, which has been getting more cartoonish and "Three Stooge" like with each passing election.
     
  9. transformer_99

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2006
    Messages:
    2,466
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    Gore and Kerry took California as well.

    2000: Gore 53.5, Bush 41.7 %

    2004: Kerry 54, Bush 44 %
     
  10. lucky8

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2006
    Messages:
    3,716
    Likes Received:
    17
    Gender:
    Male
    clinton needs to go fuck herself. of course obama will beat mccain in CA. but if obama is dumb enough to have her as a running mate, dems, be prepared to say hello to president mccain
     
  11. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2005
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wow, I post something that both sides can agree on (McCain losing ground to both candidates), and somebody still turns it into Billary vs Barack
     
  12. lucky8

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2006
    Messages:
    3,716
    Likes Received:
    17
    Gender:
    Male
    not really, CA is a largely democratic state, i would hope either one could beat mccain. but i do truly believe if obama nominates her as his running mate, he will lose the overall election
     
  13. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2007
    Messages:
    10,516
    Likes Received:
    7
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Boston, MA / New York, NY
    Bush One won California in 1988.
    It's not safe to assume that states that usually vote Democrat will always be that way. A divided party means that neither Democrat will win. As for Obama losing if he took Clinton as his running mate? I disagree... she practically has almost half of the popular vote. The difference between the two candidates are about 2%. I think the only ones that would jump ship are some independents and the few Republican-to-Democrat converts. But for those who are true Democrats, I think they'd support one another.

    But let's try to keep this on topic. I think it's a good thing that the polls project either Democratic candidate to beat McCain. But it's still a slim margin and many things can happen from now till November. So we'll see how this all plays out.
     
  14. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2005
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    0
    Yeh, it's any candidate's game in California right now, but it is good to know that McCain is projected with the weakest turn-out so far.
    I didn't bother to analyze Clinton's projections, but with the states they've listed on there, Obama vs. McCain comes out to O167 - M110 with each one's projected victory.
    Sure, they're all a long ways away, but at this point I'll take any legitimate source of optimism I can get.
     
  15. B_jacknapier

    B_jacknapier New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2007
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Pittsburgh
    Woah woah woah

    A democrat is projected to win california!?!?!?!?!!
     
  16. hotbtminla

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2007
    Messages:
    1,226
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    12
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Like I said in the other thread, that was 20 years and 12 million (mostly blue) people ago. There may be some new swing states this year, but CA won't be one of them.

    The Gore/Kerry margins are in line with our voting patterns here (now, not back then). The Dem nominee To Be Named will at least match them. No amount of collateral damage between Obama and Clinton could be enough to put California in play. The only scenario I can envision in which the GOP could possibly take CA in a general election would be to have a very weak Dem opponent and run a Republican like Schwartznegger (moderate who looks left on social issues). Since a Republican like that will never, ever be able to win the Republican nomination we'll probably be blue for the foreseeable future. :cool:

    I'm not surprised the polls show Obama doing better here in the general. Our primary was Super Tuesday, shortly after his campaign really took off. We also had a large number of early voters (more than 5% of the votes went to candidates who'd already dropped out). Considering Clinton was leading Obama in CA by 20% and 3 weeks later only won by 8%... he was trending up in a big way. Several of my friends who voted for her have since said they wished they voted for him. I'm not suggesting my friends are a microcosm of CA Democrats, but it's a frame of reference.

    The swing states this year are primarily going to be the usual suspects (OH, FL, MI, etc) and states that were formerly solid red (VA, NC, CO, etc).
     
Draft saved Draft deleted