We've already told Israel not to bomb Iran and, so far, they've listened. Iran's uranium enrichment facilities are in highly populated areas so as to create enormous collateral damage if the facilities are struck. Any country that launches against Iran is going to face enormous bad press in the Muslim world.
true, but at the end of the day, if we don't act, the Israelis will, no matter what we tell them to do. When it comes to an existential threat, the Israelis listen to nobody.
the most important facilities are actually not in such highly populated areas.
The Bushehr reactor is the primary target, and it is rather conveniently located, right next to the sea, and not at all in a crowded area
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/facility/siemens_pwr_neckar_2.jpg
there are also several other sites like
Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit
and one of the most important places like Eshefan and Natanz which are actually kept further away from civilian areas, for security reasons
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/images/esfahan-ov-dg-21july04.jpg
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/images/natanz-ik-29feb2004-wide.jpg
as well as the arak heavy water reactor
Arak - Iran Special Weapons Facilities
and other important targets
there definitely are some targets in higher populated areas, but if it comes to that, the Israelis won't care...considering all the training and missiles that Iran has helped funnel to Hamas and Hezbollah which have been deliberately targetting civilian areas, they won't hesitate to hit a critical place even in the most crowded of areas, like the tehran nuclear research center
Iran is already spending a great deal of effort destabilizing Iraq, hoping that the Shia provinces in the south will join with Iran once the US pulls out.
i don't disagree...frankly, i thought we should have broken up iraq into three pieces a long time ago. we could have left the Sunnis in charge of their part since they don't trust the shiites anyway, and then supported the Kurds in the NOrth.
the place is such a mess anyway, iran might find itself in a bit of a quagmire there, like we find ourselves in. in fact if Iran invaded, they would find themselves with the same problems we have experienced
We're not able to contain Iran's actions in Iraq. If we can't do that, then how are we supposed to do it while we're at war?
not true. Iran does not operate militarily in Iraq. they operate covertly, with planning, weapons and assistance.
there are no Iranian ground or air forces in Iraq, and there won't be. they have neither the training, technology or the numbers, and they won't dare get into a land-air war with us.
they would have to resort to mroe covert measures, and if this happens in 6 months to a years time, our forces will be drawing down further and further, with our troops restricted to certain more easily defended areas. Iranian armored units are not going to go marching into Iraq. they wouldn't last a day.
We'd have a second front open on the Iran-Iraq border and in Afghanistan.
as for any "front" opening in Afghanistan, that would not happen. there might be more of an "insurgency' but there would be no conventional front. you can't use tanks in mountains, and the Iranian's do not have the type of air support they would need anyway. this is not a country that can fight an effective conventional war.
whatever they would have to do would be unconventional, and frankly, based on the fact that the majority of the Afghan-Iran border area is desert, does not bode well for any fronts opening up. any advances there would be a turkey shoot for our air force
As we've learned in Iraq (and should have learned in Vietnam), big weapons don't matter much if there's an effective insurgency. Conventional weapons and tactics are no substitute for hearts and minds.
indeed...but once again, it is different. We will not be occupying and pacifying Iran. we will simply by striking targets via air and sea. the only boots on the ground would likely be special forces operating behind the lines, to provide intel, reconaissance, contact with any behind the scenes forces as well as rescuing any down airmen etc.
there won't be an insurgency in Iran, because we won't be in there militarily.
the only place where there would even be need for ground forces and armor or mechanized brigades would be on the borders in Iraq and Afghanistan, to prevent any moves towards either on the ground.
the Iranian air force and air defense systems would be wiped out in the first hour...likely around the same time all nuclear related and missile related facilities are hit.
from a conventional warfare standpoint, it would be much less difficult than the original invasion of Iraq since there would be no invasion or occupation, since that is not what would define victory.
