Game changing may be a little OTT, true enough. But it is a huge change from the tactics of Bush and Co. If you don't think that the "Great Satan" sending a video message of peace directly to the Iranian people, over the heads of the mullahs is useful or significant, well then we'll just have to disagree about that. No one is ever going to change your mind about the Iranians, so I'm not even going to try.
many iranians of the younger variety like the west. The problem is, they have virtually no power.
as for the great satan sending a "message of peace"...it was hardly that. there were implied threats in the message, not to mention, the nice sweet overtures to Iran have never worked before and they were already rebuffed after obama's delivery.
it may be useful and sweet, but it is still irrelevant, because the fundamental issue is that we do not want them to have the bomb, and they want it. They are not going to stop and if they don't stop, we have issued threats.
so what was the point other than some posturing? There are still no other ways to change the behavior of the Iranians...the sanctions are still there, and they are not coming off, and Obama cannot really change policy, since the policy states that Iran shouldn't have weapons...so it is merely dancing around an issue that is already decided. They want the bomb, we don't want them to have it. we offer a "message of peace" which i t wasn't...it was a tactical attempt to cajole the regime to do something they have no intent ofdoing...giving up the weapons program.
so utlimately, it serves no purpose. It may be sweet and nice a large portion of the iranian people, but to the regime, it is weakness, and does not change their view one iota, since their goal is weapons, and ours is to stop it.
Even Bush and Co tried the carrot and the stick...the fact is, the iranians do not care for carrots, sticks or sweet messages...they want the bomb...and only one thing will stop them.
The US MAY be able handle another war militarily (I have my doubts), but they can't economically. Furthermore, Iran isn't Iraq. Read a little history of the Iranian/Iraq war. Iranians don't cut and run like Saddam's soldiers did. I doubt the American public has the stomach for the 10's for thousands of causalities they would suffer in a war with Iran.
it is not a question of "may" since we are not talking about an invasion. the US Air Force and Navy are not strained at all operationally, since there is little to no fighting for them in Iraq and Afghanistan. it mostly consists of air patrol and being on station for strikes at certain times, which are carried out by drones more often now.
the Air Force and Navy would have no trouble neutralizing Iran.
and economically, the cost of the strikes is minimal compared to the cost of operational invasions.
1,000 Tomahawk missiles unit production costs are 500-600 million dollars total overall.
2,000 pound JDAMs cost $55,000 each
the brand new 250 pound class small diameter bombs cost $50,000 each
the new GBU 5000 pound penetrator "bunker Busters" cost $150,000 each
the brand new 30,000 pound class of penetrators are not available at the moment, but would not exceed$500,000 per unit.
that also does not include all the other munitions currently in the arsenal that would be used, or the cost of fuel, maintenace and operations.
frankly, a massive strike and continued air operations of that nature are rather cheap compared to even a week of ground forces occupation.
the weapons cost alone to strike with
1,000 tomahawks
1,000 2k pound class JDAMS
2,000 new SDB 250 pound class JDAMS
200 of the 5000 pound class penetrators
20 Massive Ordinance Penetrators (30,000 pound class)
would be a nominal 800 million to 1 billion dollars or so
factor in the operational costs of a one week long round the clock missile and bombing campaign and you are not looking at more than 6-7 billion dollars, which is a pittance in exchange for completely destroying not only Iran's entire nuclear weapons program, but also all the Iranian revolutionary Guard Corps apparatus, putting them in a very difficult position with regards to any future ability to destabilize Iraq to the same degree they are now doing, not to mention eliminate their ability to launch any type of ground invasions.
a comprehensive attack on all their naval, air, ground force bases and nuclear program apparatus, would take only a few days, and would leave their military power int he region obliterated...and frankly, the saudis and egyptians will be very relieved along with the Israelis.
