Has Obama shot his wad? Clinton rebounds...

[swordfishME]

It's coming down to the convention. There's no other way around it if the current results are to be believed.

Pennsylvania hast 187 delegates (26 of them super) leaning to Hillary.

North Carolina has 134 delegates (19 super) leaning to Obama.

Right now Obama has 1,451 and Hillary has 1,365. To get the nomination requires 4,049. With PA and NC as the two largest states left and with them fairly balanced out, nothing will be resolved any time soon. Obama, as the underdog, needs to keep momentum through to late May. Even if either candidate captures all 1233 of the remaining delegates (highly unlikely given the demographics of the remaining states), the number two has enough clout to influence who or what happens. All that happens in the back rooms of the convention. That means this will be a brokered convention.

Get familiar with that term because really weird shit happens at brokered conventions including dark horse nominees put up as candidates who weren't even the primaries. Obama and Clinton may decide that if either of them can't get enough backing that a third candidate (Edwards?) might but, in return, Obama and Clinton basically run Edwards' administration in the background. Ridiculous as it sounds, it's happened before. I think that scenario is wildly unlikely given the similarities of the two candidates, but there are many Dems who don't trust the Clinton machine yet there are many powerful Dems who are part of the Clinton machine.

This comes down to the superdelegates -nominally pledged delegates who represent no votes other than their own. In any event, delegates are not required to vote for whom they're pledged. That means that even if the people of Nauvoo, IL send 2 delegates in the name of Clinton, they can vote for Hillary... or Edwards... or anyone else they feel like including me or you. The smarter (or luckier) candidate then gets reams of special interest "requests" from various delegates with votes to pledge. This must happen in this scenario because to get the 4,049, some delegates must change their pledged votes. Otherwise there's no nominee.

Many of those delegates will be swayed by things like Veep, cabinet, and SCOTUS nominees, but they will also be in it for the money. They'll want money brought into their states, presidential policy positions favorable to their states, and approval of legislation favorable to their state or special interests. Lots and lots of favors will have to be promised by whomever the Democratic nominee is. Now we all know very well how good the Clintons are at doing this. Bill is a master of it and he'll be operating behind the scenes to get these deals done. Obama has doesn't have the kind of experience or length of time in the Beltway to do these kinds of things so, for this reason alone, the factors favor Hillary. A second scenario is for either candidate to take the Veep position. Hillary won't take Veep but Obama might even if he has more delegates going into the convention. He's young enough to make a solid run in eight years but then so is Hillary. The reason he may not take the Veep seat is because he's got enough sway to stay in Washington and make a very solid run in four years depending upon how Hillary does. With an economic downturn in the works, Iraq unresolved, and the polarizing issue of national healthcare looming, he might do well to sit it out and see if she goes down in flames rather than crash with her. As Veep he'll be cutting ribbons at supermarkets, meeting heads of minor nations, reaching out to the black community, and playing fetch with his dog. He's far too popular (unlike Cheney) to play any overly visible role in the Clinton administration. He could overshadow her easily and she won't risk that.

That basically means that arguing about who is doing great right now borders on the pointless.

Good analysis. One point the nominee need 2025 delegates. 4049 is the total number of delegates at stake

 

[2322]

Good analysis. One point the nominee need 2025 delegates. 4049 is the total number of delegates at stake

Doh! I'm a goof but it's late and my thumb still hurts.

 

[swordfishME]

Doh! I'm a goof but it's late and my thumb still hurts.

Happens to the best of us :biggrin1: Very interesting read though.

 

[Industrialsize]

Reality:

Delegates:
Obama 1307
Clinton 1175

Next 2 states to vote.....Monatana, Mississippi , Obama heavily favored to win both

Obama has a cadre of 50 currently uncommitted superdelegates who have committed to endorse him, watch for an announcement in the next few days

FALLACY: Obama can't win BIG states
REALITY Obama can't win states that Hillary Clinton determines to be big, Wisconsin ,Virginia, washington,Missouri, Minnesota, georgia are not exactly SMALL states

Fact: I take great insult in all the comments about people only support Obama beacuse he's "cool", gives a good speech, he has no substance etc. I'm a very intelligent person and have actually read HRC's and BHO's positions on the issues. I agree more with Obama. Plus the ability to give a great speech and inspire is a quality that should not be overlooked. After 8 years of darkness of Bush. This country could use a little uplifting, don't you think. By making such statements they are insulting my intelligence and saying that I don't know what I'm doing....Trust me, I spend far too muh time following the cmapaign, gathering news from the media and the blogosphere, and My inelligently thought out choice happens to be barack Obama.

Prediction: Clinton pulls out of the election either just before or just after the Pennsylvania primary when she finally realizes that there is NO way she can arrive at the convention with a lead in pledged delegates and the Popular vote. She will do this to "preserve her legacy" and to help the DEMS avoid a nasty floor fight. Can you imagine if Obama went onto the convention with more pledged delegates and popular vote and Clinton ended up the Nominee. The unrest that would break out would make the '68 riots look tame.

 

[Industrialsize]

BTW...due to the vagaries of the way delegates are proportionally handed out in the Democratic Primaries........for all the hoopla regarding Senator Clinton's wins.......their net effect was her shaving a grand total of 2 delegates off of Obama's lead in the pledged delegates.

 

[D_Chaumbrelayne_Copprehead]

So, really, not much has changed since before Tuesday's four primaries. Obama probably still has the momentum (not to mention an incredible amount of cash), but Clinton is not really down and out yet. It's been a primary season of swings back and forth (Obama wins Iowa, Clinton wins NH, Obama wins SC), prior to Obama winning close to a dozen primaries in a row. You'll hear pundits say what they think will happen, but the thing to remember is that this year really seems different, and no one really knows what's going to happen here!

 

[swordfishME]

Most pundits are saying that unless obama makes some monumental mistake or something really bad about him comes to light, Clinton will not be able to secure the nomination. And I don't think something like that is going to happen before the general campaign

 

[2322]

Pundits also, perhaps primarily, say what they would like to see happen and make it sound objective.

Was interesting to hear Hannity and Coulter today stumping for Hillary. A caller stated he was disappointed with Hannity pushing for Clinton instead of Obama. Hannity tried to calm the caller by saying there's really no difference in any of their policies. Unfortunately for we the audience, the caller didn't have the brains to ask Hannity if, he really thought there was no difference, why Hannity was pushing for one over the other. To me it's very clear that some of the conservative pundits have made careers criticizing 16 years of Clinton politics so why kill the fatted calf for the relatively scandal-free (and ethnically dangerous-to-criticize) Obama? I also thing they're secretly afraid of going after Obama and being labeled racists. Rush or MAnn or Sean say the wrong thing just once and they're screwed.

 

[Quite Irate]

Most pundits are saying that unless obama makes some monumental mistake or something really bad about him comes to light, Clinton will not be able to secure the nomination. And I don't think something like that is going to happen before the general campaign

Neither of them will reach the 2025 marker. It'll be a convention decision, if Clinton stays in long enough.

 

[Industrialsize]

Neither of them will reach the 2025 marker. It'll be a convention decision, if Clinton stays in long enough.

or sooner if the superdelegates continue their current trend. Since super Tuesday Obama has gained 36 delegates....Clinton has LOST 6.......(plus Tom Brokaw reported yesterday that Obama has a Cadre of FIFTY superdelegates ready to publicy endorse him and are just waiting for him to give the go ahead.....My guess is they'll do it this week sometime)

 

[mrpond]

yawn

 

[simcha]

This may not be the best source, but I see conflicting arguments on this issue. IS there a law that says people must pay income tax? Where can I find and read the law on this? - Yahoo! Answers

OK. Here are some answers for the horse's mouth.

You don't mess with the IRS.

It is a legal entity and federal laws do back up their activities. So you might as well pay so you don't end up in the pokey...

 

[Drifterwood]

But Mrs. C. has perfect cankles.

I'd rather watch the Obama's home porn than the Clinton's.

 

[HazelGod]

Fact: I take great insult in all the comments about people only support Obama beacuse he's "cool", gives a good speech, he has no substance etc. I'm a very intelligent person and have actually read HRC's and BHO's positions on the issues. I agree more with Obama. Plus the ability to give a great speech and inspire is a quality that should not be overlooked. After 8 years of darkness of Bush. This country could use a little uplifting, don't you think. By making such statements they are insulting my intelligence and saying that I don't know what I'm doing....Trust me, I spend far too muh time following the cmapaign, gathering news from the media and the blogosphere, and My inelligently thought out choice happens to be barack Obama.

Amen, brother.

 

[vince]

Trust me, I spend far too muh time following the cmapaign, gathering news from the media and the blogosphere, and My inelligently thought out choice happens to be barack Obama.

That's cool. As long your prepared to respect other's intelligently thought out choices no matter who wins the nomination and support them in November. Four more years of Republican 'leadership' is more than we all can bear.

The Republican party give us George Bush and all the consequences that intails. I watched the coverage of GWB's Rose Garden endorsement of McCain. McCain looked pretty uncomfortable when George said they would be campaigning together. LOL! God what a arrogant wannabe cowboy he can be. I'm afraid that "The Firm" may already own McCain.

 

[Industrialsize]

That's cool. As long your prepared to respect other's intelligently thought out choices no matter who wins the nomination and support them in November. Four more years of Republican 'leadership' is more than we all can bear.

The Republican party give us George Bush and all the consequences that intails. I watched the coverage of GWB's Rose Garden endorsement of McCain. McCain looked pretty uncomfortable when George said they would be campaigning together. LOL! God what a arrogant wannabe cowboy he can be. I'm afraid that "The Firm" may already own McCain.

of course I will support Hillary Clinton should she be the nominee...what disturbs me is the amount of "Trash Talk" regarding Senator Obama here....and the statements that if Hillary Doesn't win I'm voting for mcCain...are there really democrats that want to stay in Iraq for 100 years?

 

[Corius]

JUST REMEMBER THAT THIS TOO WILL PASS; TOMORROW IS ANOTHER DAY AND NONE OF US HAS A CLUE AS TO WHAT THE NEW WRINKLE WILL BE. SO, WE CAN ALL RELAX WHILE REMAINING ALERT.

 

[b.c.]

Lol...I've sat back reading all of these recent posts and wonderin' when the gloves were going to start coming off and when we were going to start really showing what we're made of.

Didn't take too long, didn't it? ...starting maybe with the "Barack HUSSEIN Obama" thread ("The commie bastard, how dare he have that middle name??") and spiraling downhill from there (chuckle).

Now in this tread he's "arrogant" (translation: "Doesn't he know his 'place'? He's only been a senator for a few years. Not like he's been an actor or something, fer chrissakes!!") :wink:

Then there's the person who tactfully observed "well he's only 50% black..." Funny how us "people of color" are black when the shit hits the fan but only half black when it suits the purpose, isn't it?? :tongue:

And the poor Republicans. lol. They're so confused they don't know WHO they want McCain to run against - to say nothing of the fact that he isn't nearly as conservative as they'd probably "druther" anyway. (Hey, does that make him "half-Republican"??)

Hell...who knows?? Maybe (whoever comes out on top of the democratic squabble) wll piss me off in getting there so much, I'll end up voting for him (McCann).

Now won't that be somethin'?

 

[deleted213967]

Hell...who knows?? Maybe (whoever comes out on top of the democratic squabble) wll piss me off in getting there so much, I'll end up voting for him (McCann).

Now won't that be somethin'?

McCain would still mark a very welcome "change" from W.

Overall, we could deal with much worse candidates.

As for the the 50% black remark, I made it clear it was a genetic fact, not how Barack identifies himself.

The Clintons are no bigots either. I fail to see why Hillary would have a black woman leading her campaign just to pick up a few African-American voters.

Obama, because of his heritage, is still uniquely positioned to advance the cause of minorities. He was greatly instrumental in working to end the preposterous injustice of the penal system on drug sentencing (that's one accomplishment that clueless Texas Democratic official could have cited during that infamous Chris Matthews exchange).

 

[D_Harry_Crax]

I am sick of Obama's glib arrogance. Why is he so arrogant? Because his only political experience is being a senator for a few years?

Maybe because he was editor-in-chief of the Harvard Law Review and a professor at U. of Chicago Law School. I have some personal experience with U. of Chicago law profs, and there's an old American joke: Who are the only two groups of Americans who always make sure to tell you where they're from? Texans and Harvard graduates.