Headed towards a depression

Discussion in 'Et Cetera, Et Cetera' started by ucsb123, Mar 20, 2008.

  1. ucsb123

    ucsb123 New Member

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    We are facing rising unemployment, a credit crunch that reminds one of 1929 (Bear Stearns bailout), and a dollar that is free-falling (It's cheaper here than in Canada). On the flipside, the economy is growing (1-2%, slight, but not a recession), the world is starting to look more favorably towards us because of a new president, and due to the housing crash housing is more affordable (will take two to three years to see some benefits).

    This is too much like 1928/1928. One would think that the lessons of history (poor credit, too much laissez faire capitalism) we would prevent the current situation.

    Sorry for the lack of cohesion, just random thoughts. Please chip in.
     
  2. D_Ollyvalle Treegirth

    D_Ollyvalle Treegirth Account Disabled

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    It's often-remarked that Americans ignore history.

     
  3. unabear09

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    thats been one of my big fears here lately.....I think we are on our way to a depression as big, if not bigger than the 1929 crash......god help us if it happens
     
  4. midlifebear

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    I just core-dumped my opinions on the Hillary Supporters Have Thin Skin thread regarding the greatest threat to the safety of the USA: economic collapse. Oy! I'm "on the board of directors" (if you have an LLC in the USA you know what I mean) of corporate entities in the USA, Spain, and Argentina. The only one that is not expected to thrive and grow is the one in the USA. Even the rainy-day fund money for that entity is losing value by the minute and there's not much anyone can do about it.

    Good luck, and I hope you all like Mac and Cheese. :cool:
     
  5. SteveHd

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    Depression is overstatement. A 1970s type of recession might be what's coming but not a depression, I.M.O.

    Chickens Little. :rolleyes:
     
  6. B_dumbcow

    B_dumbcow New Member

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    Aaah! The price of alfalfa will inflate too much! Whatever will I do? (Oh yeah, the free stuff in the field)...

    Anyway, there's no point in worrying. All the more reason to party today if we won't be able to tomorrow :wink:
     
  7. Phil Ayesho

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    Mac and Cheese? who can afford that? ITs Ramen, three meals a day.


    The crash of 29 can not really happen again as the world economy is far too interconnected... other nations will bail out the US if necessary to keep their economies from faltering...

    But it will be hard...

    The US is going thru what Britain did after the war as its colonial economy collapsed.

    Very similar to the offshoring of production that is going on now... and the US economy is now entirely based on financial instruments, loans, mortgages and credit cards.

    I knew we were heading for a fall the day banks started referring to their loans as "products".


    The last 7 years have seen the largest transfer of public cash into the smallest number of private hands in world history.

    Bush has borrowed trillions of dollars from future productivity that is not looking good...

    But what everyone keeps missing is that that money did not evaporate.

    Its in the bank accounts of a few thousand people. In the Caymans, or Lichtenstein or some other unassailable tax haven.

    We have been robbed blind... and yet Bush and Cheney still sit happily in their offices... somehow Untarred and Unfeathered.


    The American people, who allow this while swallowing the pap served nightly on corporate controlled media, deserve exactly what they get.
     
  8. Phil Ayesho

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    PS- the reason I will vote for Obama... if given the chance, is that the last thing I want in office is some "experienced" government hustler.

    Experienced means they know how to take and hide a bribe.


    Hillary isn't experienced... she's jaded. McCain has turned his back on every principle he ever had to try and get the republican nomination.


    I want a person inexperienced enough that he still has principles... still believes he can do some good.

    y'know the old film Mr. Deeds goes to Washington?

    Imagine a whole senate full of idealistic folks who still believe that graft is wrong...

    Jefferson wanted us to have guns as the final check on tyranny and corruption...

    How could he know we would be too blinded by reality TV to even notice tyranny and corruption?
     
  9. lorne

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    your not aloud to call it a recession until there has been 6 months of it charted as a steady decline right now it's just in great fluctuation, and Canada's is doing really well thanks to oil and other things. At least the unemployment rate is dropping in the states! I know, I know it's not because people are finding work but because in the survey they have answered they are no longer even looking to find work but it makes the economy look less tired and ailing. The money is barely in some private account you can see where it has been wasted sadly. Wars... piss poor security plans, and oddly the most pro-african spending and support ever from the American government. No predecessor has ever tried so hard to help this region or allocated so much money to research and disease prevention. When it all comes down to it everything is a corporation don't get to bent out of shape. I'd to see you on the street with a piece of cardboard telling people how the government is tracking our movements with the fluoride they put in the tap water.
     
  10. ucsb123

    ucsb123 New Member

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    No, I'm not that type of person getting too bent out of shape. Just seeing how similar it is to 1929 (rapid housing boom and crash, falling dollar, the bandage solutions, the credit crunch). But I mean most likely it will not be a pleasant ride.
     
  11. SteveHd

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    I remember the "crash" of 1989. It and the Saving-and-Loan/RTC mess had similarities to 1929 but a depression didn't occur. Similarities are just that. Try not to project them bigger that they are.

    Note: I have 2,500+ shares in a major commercial bank; I'm not planning to sell any of it.
     
  12. ucsb123

    ucsb123 New Member

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    One of the major differences with today's crash and that of 1989, people had more equity in their homes. We just moved to Moreno Valley, Ca (fastest growing city in America in 1989) The threat of foreclousure would not be for another 3 years ('91-'92 recession) at least in California (usually predicts the market well). Seeing what is going on now in SoCal, (people using their homes as ATMs, pricing average tract homes in the desert for 500k-600k).

    Even China is facing a possible recession, 14,000 factories were exported out of southern China alone. Housing is skyrocketing, and thus creating a need for credit. The Yaun is highly undervalued, to deem it profitable to do biz in China. The Economist also noted that India may have grown too fast as well.

    I think we will have the American version of the Asian financial crisis. With that said, this would also debase China and India whose banks have bought A LOT of American Dollars.

    I feel that with the enourmous debt that has been accumulated, it will be a good few years before we see anything like in the 1990s. Maybe not a 1929 "Grapes of Wrath" but definitely not little miss sunshine giving us all blow jobs.
     
  13. Philly05

    Philly05 Member

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    The Depression was a result of slashing the money supply and huge trade barriers, nothing to do with laissez faire capitalism. The giant socialist program known as the New Deal resulted in higher unemployment and lower growth, it never bailed us out.
     
  14. midlifebear

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    Uh. . . hmmm. . . there was a bit more to it than that. :rolleyes:
     
  15. B_CBTallthetime

    B_CBTallthetime New Member

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    Yep, we suck, going downhill, never recover, everyone else is in great shape.

    BULLSHIT

    We sneeze and everyone else gets a cold - if we are in as bad a shape as all the nay-sayers here, the one good thing is that lots of people have a vested interest in helping us out.

    But I for one don't think it's all doom and gloom. Economies have to weed out every now and then, and we'll be stronger for it when it's over.
     
  16. B_Think_Kink

    B_Think_Kink New Member

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    Doubt it will happen...
     
  17. D_Percival Puddleford Pukehorn

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    Stop scaring me! :confused:
     
  18. ucsb123

    ucsb123 New Member

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    Sorry marluc. Again, just observation
     
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