Hong Kong And The People's Republic Of China

Jason

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The question is, will post-Brexit stress its relations with the largest economy for the people in Hong Kong...

If you or I or anyone else can make sense of the Brexit muddle we would be doing wonders! However today the newspapers have the story that a UK-US trade deal will be announced on 1st November (so the day after Brexit). Remember this is also the day that is being pencilled in for a UK General Election.

I think the scenario is that on 1st Nov all British (Overseas) passports held by Hong Kongers become standard British passports. I suppose the announcement of this could be almost any time. The move is dependent on Brexit happening as the EU would block it (which is why it didn't happen years ago). It would have a lot of diplomatic impact. It would stress that the UK is actively defending its role as guarantor of Hong Kong.

In terms of UK-US policy i think this would be linked to US support for self-determination for Hong Kong, and may well involve Taiwan also. I think there would be UK-US demands for greater autonomy for HK with a view to some special status which includes a UK role to safeguard 1m plus British passport holders.
 
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If you or I or anyone else can make sense of the Brexit muddle we would be doing wonders! However today the newspapers have the story that a UK-US trade deal will be announced on 1st November (so the day after Brexit). Remember this is also the day that is being pencilled in for a UK General Election.

I think the scenario is that on 1st Nov all British (Overseas) passports held by Hong Kongers become standard British passports. I suppose the announcement of this could be almost any time. The move is dependent on Brexit happening as the EU would block it (which is why it didn't happen years ago). It would have a lot of diplomatic impact. It would stress that the UK is actively defending its role as guarantor of Hong Kong.

In terms of UK-US policy i think this would be linked to US support for self-determination for Hong Kong, and may well involve Taiwan also. I think there would be UK-US demands for greater autonomy for HK with a view to some special status which includes a UK role to safeguard 1m plus British passport holders.
From the US: The Speaker of the House of Representatives has announced that there will be no trade deal between the US and the UK if there is a Brexit with a hard border with Northern Ireland;
Brexit: No chance of US trade deal if Irish accord hit - Pelosi
.......
The reimposition of frontier controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if the UK leaves the EU without mutual agreement on 31 October - a so-called "hard Brexit" - is seen as a threat to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of bloodshed in Northern Ireland.

"Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland," Ms Pelosi said in a statement on Wednesday........
'No chance of US deal' if Brexit hits Irish accord
 

Perados

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From the US: The Speaker of the House of Representatives has announced that there will be no trade deal between the US and the UK if there is a Brexit with a hard border with Northern Ireland;
Brexit: No chance of US trade deal if Irish accord hit - Pelosi
.......
The reimposition of frontier controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if the UK leaves the EU without mutual agreement on 31 October - a so-called "hard Brexit" - is seen as a threat to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of bloodshed in Northern Ireland.

"Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland," Ms Pelosi said in a statement on Wednesday........
'No chance of US deal' if Brexit hits Irish accord
So, a no deal Brexit means no deal with the US
 

Jason

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From the US: The Speaker of the House of Representatives has announced that there will be no trade deal between the US and the UK if there is a Brexit with a hard border with Northern Ireland;
Brexit: No chance of US trade deal if Irish accord hit - Pelosi
.......
The reimposition of frontier controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if the UK leaves the EU without mutual agreement on 31 October - a so-called "hard Brexit" - is seen as a threat to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of bloodshed in Northern Ireland.

"Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland," Ms Pelosi said in a statement on Wednesday........
'No chance of US deal' if Brexit hits Irish accord

But there is zero chance of frontier controls between NI and the Republic of Ireland. Both UK and R of I have ruled these out in all circumstances. For that matter there have never been such controls. During the troubles there were some security checks, but that is different from frontier controls. Pelosi needs to get her facts right. There is no threat to a seamless border.

I don't think people who haven't seen it understand this border, which as a national border is unusual. It runs along old Irish county boundaries. There are very few geographical features which correspond with the border. It's about 300 miles long (amazingly long because it winds so much) and has well over 300 recognised crossing points. It runs at times down the middle of roads, at times diagonally across fields. It runs through buildings. In Belleek the porcelain factory is situated in UK but has its entrance in Republic of Ireland. Several roads cross the border multiple times. There are areas of both Ni and RofI which have their only access from the other country.

There are very many institutions that straddle the border. Northern Ireland uses the system of individual banks issuing banknotes (four of them) and these are the usual bank notes in NI. (Bank of England and the three Scottish banks are accepted.) However two of the four NI note issuing banks are Republic of Ireland banks.

If anyone tried to close the border then the sectarian mobs (both sides) would tear down the border infrastructure. It might actually unite the two sides!

There has never been anything that resembles a national border and never will be.

The idea of a 1st Nov trade deal has been put forward by John Bolton, who is the US national security advisor, on a trip to London. Apparently it would be an interim agreement which is a matter for the President. I suspect the UK is looking at a whole package of agreements with USA, including on Hong Kong, Iran and trade
 
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But there is zero chance of frontier controls between NI and the Republic of Ireland. Both UK and R of I have ruled these out in all circumstances. For that matter there have never been such controls. During the troubles there were some security checks, but that is different from frontier controls. Pelosi needs to get her facts right. There is no threat to a seamless border.

I don't think people who haven't seen it understand this border, which as a national border is unusual. It runs along old Irish county boundaries. There are very few geographical features which correspond with the border. It's about 300 miles long (amazingly long because it winds so much) and has well over 300 recognised crossing points. It runs at times down the middle of roads, at times diagonally across fields. It runs through buildings. In Belleek the porcelain factory is situated in UK but has its entrance in Republic of Ireland. Several roads cross the border multiple times. There are areas of both Ni and RofI which have their only access from the other country.

There are very many institutions that straddle the border. Northern Ireland uses the system of individual banks issuing banknotes (four of them) and these are the usual bank notes in NI. (Bank of England and the three Scottish banks are accepted.) However two of the four NI note issuing banks are Republic of Ireland banks.

If anyone tried to close the border then the sectarian mobs (both sides) would tear down the border infrastructure. It might actually unite the two sides!

There has never been anything that resembles a national border and never will be.

The idea of a 1st Nov trade deal has been put forward by John Bolton, who is the US national security advisor, on a trip to London. Apparently it would be an interim agreement which is a matter for the President. I suspect the UK is looking at a whole package of agreements with USA, including on Hong Kong, Iran and trade
You're confusing the US with a country that has a functioning leader. We have no trade policy. Our President governs according to caprice and whim. John Bolton is not The United States Trade Representative. He is a National Security Adviser and heads the NSA which has nothing to do with trade. The United states has a trade Office and Representative. His name is Robert Lighthizer. If you want to know US trade policy, watch Mr Trump's twitter feed.
 

Perados

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But there is zero chance of frontier controls between NI and the Republic of Ireland. Both UK and R of I have ruled these out in all circumstances. For that matter there have never been such controls. During the troubles there were some security checks, but that is different from frontier controls. Pelosi needs to get her facts right. There is no threat to a seamless border.

I don't think people who haven't seen it understand this border, which as a national border is unusual. It runs along old Irish county boundaries. There are very few geographical features which correspond with the border. It's about 300 miles long (amazingly long because it winds so much) and has well over 300 recognised crossing points. It runs at times down the middle of roads, at times diagonally across fields. It runs through buildings. In Belleek the porcelain factory is situated in UK but has its entrance in Republic of Ireland. Several roads cross the border multiple times. There are areas of both Ni and RofI which have their only access from the other country.

There are very many institutions that straddle the border. Northern Ireland uses the system of individual banks issuing banknotes (four of them) and these are the usual bank notes in NI. (Bank of England and the three Scottish banks are accepted.) However two of the four NI note issuing banks are Republic of Ireland banks.

If anyone tried to close the border then the sectarian mobs (both sides) would tear down the border infrastructure. It might actually unite the two sides!

There has never been anything that resembles a national border and never will be.

The idea of a 1st Nov trade deal has been put forward by John Bolton, who is the US national security advisor, on a trip to London. Apparently it would be an interim agreement which is a matter for the President. I suspect the UK is looking at a whole package of agreements with USA, including on Hong Kong, Iran and trade
It doesn't matter if there never have been checks. There will be a hard border as soon as Britain leaves with a no deal...

300 miles of border? SOOOOOO much?
The USA has 3000 miles of border with Mexico and is able to control it. Germany has 2000 miles of borders and was able to control it in the past...

The EU has borders with Russia, white Russia, the Ukraine and several other nations. We are able to control them...

The same will count for these few miles on an island.
 

Jason

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It doesn't matter if there never have been checks. There will be a hard border as soon as Britain leaves with a no deal...

300 miles of border? SOOOOOO much?
The USA has 3000 miles of border with Mexico and is able to control it. Germany has 2000 miles of borders and was able to control it in the past...

The EU has borders with Russia, white Russia, the Ukraine and several other nations. We are able to control them...

The same will count for these few miles on an island.

You miss the point. Neither UK nor Republic of Ireland will accept any sort of border fence, any physical barrier. Nor would either accept the clearance of a strip back from the border.

The EU's eastern border is a conventional border, with a fence and crossing points. It is certainly porous, but at least it basically functions. The NI border can never be like this.
 

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You miss the point. Neither UK nor Republic of Ireland will accept any sort of border fence, any physical barrier. Nor would either accept the clearance of a strip back from the border.

The EU's eastern border is a conventional border, with a fence and crossing points. It is certainly porous, but at least it basically functions. The NI border can never be like this.
We will see
 

Jason

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NB The Sun is a UK tabloid. It prides itself on its most average demographic for its readership and for its ability to predict UK public opinion. This editorial probably is significant as it suggests a majority in UK would accept the passport change. Of course it can only be from 1st Nov, so it is Brexit dependent.

I think we are seeing the UK potentially making a robust response to possible Chinese aggression in HK. I'm not clear what any other nations is proposing doing.
 
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Also note who has been MIA, the President of the United States.

The president showed the sophistication of his thinking on another China issue, the huge pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong that have rattled the Chinese leadership. “It’s a very tricky situation,” he explained to reporters. “I think it will work out and I hope it works out, for liberty. I hope it works out for everybody, including China.”

The president offered no support for the demonstrators who have been massing for weeks in protest. Nor did he warn China against taking action to put down the protests. Unlike past presidents, he declined to stand for American values or the importance of human rights. He appears unwilling to criticize the Chinese government for fear that it would jeopardize resolving the trade war. For Trump, human rights can wait.

But the president was willing to offer Chinese President Xi Jinping some advice about Hong Kong. Calling Xi “a great leader” and “a good man in a ‘tough business,’ ” he recommended: “If President Xi would meet directly and personally with the protesters, there would be a happy and enlightened ending to the Hong Kong problem,” he wrote. “I have no doubt!”
 
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It's soooooo strange... THESE refugees are welcome?
Why?

Is it their high level of education, or just their ethnicity? What is it that makes them to prime refugees?




I wonder what will happen with the Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar... a court in Gibraltar decided to give the tanker free, a US court decided to impound it.
What will the British government do? Will they follow their courts or will they obey to Trump?

It looks like the post Brexit era start earlier as expected.
 
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Klingsor

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I think we are seeing the UK potentially making a robust response to possible Chinese aggression in HK. I'm not clear what any other nations is proposing doing.

In the U.S., Trump will welcome people from Hong Kong. But only the Norwegian ones.
 
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798686

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It's soooooo strange... THESE refugees are welcome?
Why?

Is it their high level of education, or just their ethnicity? What is it that makes them to prime refugees?




I wonder what will happen with the Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar... a court in Gibraltar decided to give the tanker free, a US court decided to impound it.
What will the British government do? Will they follow their courts or will they obey to Trump?

It looks like the post Brexit era start earlier as expected.
Probably the courts re Gibraltar and tanker. There's a limit to how much we can help - plus a diplomatic solution with Iran is probably better.
 
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deleted15807

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When all is said and done, the Communist Party exists largely for the sake of its own continued power and the personal wealth of its top few hundred families. When it has believed that to be sufficiently threatened, it has not hesitated to intervene to protect its own sinecures. The end of this story is already written.


SHENZHEN, China — The Shenzhen Bay Sports Center rises along the shore with the green hills of Hong Kong visible across the water. It normally bustles with a variety of youth sports programs and dance, art and language academies, including one that advertises a “Hong Kong Style Education.”

In recent days, however, it has become a staging ground for olive-green military transports and armored personnel carriers that arrived on Aug. 11 and disgorged hundreds of security officers from the People’s Armed Police, a Chinese paramilitary force, who are loudly running through daily exercises and drills.

By massing the troops within view of Hong Kong, the semiautonomous territory convulsed by protests, China’s Communist Party is delivering a strong warning that the use of force remains an option for Beijing. It is also a stark reminder that military power remains a bedrock of the party’s legitimacy.

“It’s a credible threat,” Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College in California, said. “The Chinese government does not want to leave any doubt that, if necessary, it will act.”


With Troop Buildup, China Sends a Stark Warning to Hong Kong
 
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deleted15807

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Social media has become valuable tools to autocrats around the globe.


SAN FRANCISCO — China has aggressively stirred up anti-Western and nationalist sentiment using state and social media as part of an information war in the Hong Kong protests.

On Monday, Facebook and Twitter said they had found evidence of just how active China has been in trying to sow discord.

The social media companies said they had discovered and taken down networks of accounts that had originated in mainland China, where both Facebook and Twitter are blocked. The accounts had posted that the Hong Kong protesters were acting violently and accused them of ulterior motives. One Facebook post likened the protesters to ISIS fighters.

Facebook said it removed seven pages, three Facebook Groups and five accounts involved in the disinformation, while Twitter, which has served as a gathering place for protesters, took down 936 accounts. Twitter said it would also ban state-backed media from promoting tweets after China Daily, and other state-backed publications, placed ads on the service that suggested the Hong Kong protesters were sponsored by Western interests and were becoming violent.

Facebook and Twitter Say China Is Spreading Disinformation in Hong Kong
 

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