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Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jason, May 13, 2010.
A question for anyone in the UK or following UK politics. How long will the Coalition last?
Depends on Lib-dem backbone, if they cave in to the Tories than it could go full term, but if they have some bravery then it will last till the referendum on AV and then collapse in acrimony.
I think it's going to last. The consequencies for the economy and for both parties if this falls to bits are too big. I think they are going to find they have a lot in common and will lock out Labour for at least a generation.
Until the next election.
I agree with your statement but the bolded part. They are going to have to make massive cuts to public services to get the debt under control- and come next election they will have to pay for it.
You are putting too much faith in the general public if you think they are going to understand that this was the fiscally prudent thing to do
There you go again, always talking about the economy. No one cares about the economy. Yes, I know its important but it has such an overarching importance that every politician has ignored it and carried on squabbling about details. Details like taxes which will only raise/cost 1 billion and never a mention of anything for 100 billion.
I notice there is an option for more than 5 years. It will only go more than 5 years if the libs stand up to the tories and the two sides continue to come up with compromises. It will also only continue if they can continue to be separate distinct parties, with separate distinct voters. That is one of the potential strengths of it, if they are each appealing to a separate set of people so they bring both groups to the partnership.
I think there are a few signs of protest from the tory right. This coalition is a real threat to them, because it allows Cameron to threaten them with Clegg. To continue, the coalition partners must compromise, which drags the tories left. Clegg doesnt have quite this problem because his party is pretty centre, but the same does apply if some of his men object. Clegg isnt trying to reform his party, but Cameron is. But it really is true that these terms 'left' and 'right' are misleading. The conservatives are the party of eccentric aristocrats, duck houses, moats and all. But the 'eccentric' bit, and the independant and civil liberties bit is shared with the liberals. Labour is a socialist party, and does have a tendency to 'big brother'. Which isnt to say the conservatives are wondeful. Theyre the party of banning homosexuality but getting on with it anyway. Labour will give you your civil liberies, but also a list of times they dont apply.
Dont know how long it will last. Most commentators seem to be going for 2 years. Im sure Cameron and Clegg want at least 5. I think its really true that Cameron is happier with 55 liberals than if he could replace them with 20 more conservatives so he had a bare majority. This arrangement will give him more freedom and control of his own party. Simon Hughes today said it was much easier negotiating with the cons than lab. Others have said the negotiations were easier than they expected. Of course they would say this, wouldnt they, but I think its true. In reality all governments get more extreme in their second term. Its new now. Modest pushes in their preferred direction are acceptable, so compromises are easier in a first term. Might be harder after the next election when they will have been emphasising their specific differences in the next campaign. But until the next election they both have a vested interest in keeping the show going and making it a huge success. Both side will be punished doubly for being part of a coalition if it fails.
I am rather inclined to the view that if it goes wrong the liberals are toast. Fail to get any voting reform (may well be a hard sell to voters) so no boost from that. Defectors to labour who cant abide the partnership. Unpopular for enacting unpopular measures. Constituencies will be readjusted more equally which will favour the Tories. The true outcome of having AV if it does arrive is very hard to predict. Thing is, the cons do not want the liberals to be toast because that will help labour kick them out next time. Cameron is the stronger partner, but he really doesnt have a motive to cheat.