I could/would have said the FTSE, you can have a punt on that as well, but most members know the US better. So I hope that this isn't in bad taste.
What do you think will be the lowest end of day position between now and Xmas?
I'll go 7950 - hey, I'm an optimist.
Winner gets virtaul oral from any member of their choice.
FTSE - 3500
Thinking that the low will hit by Christmas is optimistic. I don't think the bear market will break out until at least 3rd quarter 2009, some are predicting not until 2010.
IMO, until the 30-year T-Bond rate that influences Mortgage rates, goes down people will not dare try to buy a home. Home buying affects such a huge part of the market I don't see an improvement without it.
What I hate is that not only stocks, but commodities also went to hell and on the other end, with the US Treasury pumping phoney money into the system, inflation goes up and the US Dollar goes down.
Some people on LPSG have said that we are basically screwed and there is nothing we can do about it and there is some truth to that unless, you already held a defensive position, say 10% cash, 40% bonds, leaving only 1/2 your portfolio to gamble back when the world markets were at their top.
Cramer put a 5 year pessimistic prediction out there yesterday saying if you need any money, for any reason, in the next 5 years, get it out of the market now.
My concern is panic, world wide. That will drive everything down and make for great buying opportunities *if* you think the markets are at bottom. Without some positive indices, there really is no bottom.
From today's current DOW, there is less than 1500 points to reach your figure and it is already down over 4700 points from its high. It is down over 500 today. It won't take much at 500 each day.:frown1: It could reach your level by the end of the week!
Rumor is that there will be a European capital injection to help out over there and since that rumor, it tanked even further.