How low will the Dow go by Xmas?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Drifterwood, Oct 7, 2008.

  1. Drifterwood

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    15,725
    Likes Received:
    386
    Location:
    Fingringhoe (GB)
    I could/would have said the FTSE, you can have a punt on that as well, but most members know the US better. So I hope that this isn't in bad taste.

    What do you think will be the lowest end of day position between now and Xmas?

    I'll go 7950 - hey, I'm an optimist.

    Winner gets virtaul oral from any member of their choice.

    FTSE - 3500
     
  2. D_Fiona_Farvel

    D_Fiona_Farvel Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2007
    Messages:
    3,790
    Likes Received:
    17
    Obviously.

    Dow ends the year between 8,500-9,900... I'm the optimist. :smile:
     
  3. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2006
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Midwest
    11,000.

    October is generally the month in which bear markets come to an end; particularly in election years. Bear markets were essentially killed in :

    October 1923
    October 1929
    October 1957
    October 1960
    October 1962
    October 1966
    October 1974
    October 1987
    October 1990
    October 2002

    Source: NDR (Ned Davis Research)
     
  4. D_Pubert Stabbingpain

    D_Pubert Stabbingpain Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2007
    Messages:
    2,194
    Likes Received:
    8
    Thinking that the low will hit by Christmas is optimistic. I don't think the bear market will break out until at least 3rd quarter 2009, some are predicting not until 2010.

    IMO, until the 30-year T-Bond rate that influences Mortgage rates, goes down people will not dare try to buy a home. Home buying affects such a huge part of the market I don't see an improvement without it.

    What I hate is that not only stocks, but commodities also went to hell and on the other end, with the US Treasury pumping phoney money into the system, inflation goes up and the US Dollar goes down.

    Some people on LPSG have said that we are basically screwed and there is nothing we can do about it and there is some truth to that unless, you already held a defensive position, say 10% cash, 40% bonds, leaving only 1/2 your portfolio to gamble back when the world markets were at their top.

    Cramer put a 5 year pessimistic prediction out there yesterday saying if you need any money, for any reason, in the next 5 years, get it out of the market now.

    My concern is panic, world wide. That will drive everything down and make for great buying opportunities *if* you think the markets are at bottom. Without some positive indices, there really is no bottom.

    From today's current DOW, there is less than 1500 points to reach your figure and it is already down over 4700 points from its high. It is down over 500 today. It won't take much at 500 each day.:frown1: It could reach your level by the end of the week! :eek:

    Rumor is that there will be a European capital injection to help out over there and since that rumor, it tanked even further.
     
  5. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2006
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Midwest
    this has a lot of signals that are typical of a bottom - panic selling, hopelessness, intense fear, extremely high trading volume. Most of the economic weakness and credit failures are already priced into the market at this point.

    Nice time to buy.
     
  6. faceking

    faceking Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2004
    Messages:
    7,522
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    85
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Mavs, NOR * CAL
    I hope not... i just sunk a decent chunk of change 2 minutes before the close on SPX futures...
     
  7. Drifterwood

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    15,725
    Likes Received:
    386
    Location:
    Fingringhoe (GB)
    You sure Star?

    I am not so convinced it is time for words like usually, traditionally etc.

    My 7950 is getting horribly close.
     
  8. D_Pubert Stabbingpain

    D_Pubert Stabbingpain Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2007
    Messages:
    2,194
    Likes Received:
    8
    All the European markets lost another 20+% today. I don't think a Global Market will turn around very fast. Volitility is extremely high world wide.

    Typically, I hold long :biggrin1: positions but am now evaluating whether to move some into savings in order to minimize losses and have cash on hand in case it totally goes to hell (bread lines, etc.). Depression is not at all that far-fetched. We have really not seen the complete effect of this credit mess. It will take months to filter down to the point where small businesses close, unemployment goes up and therefore, bills and mortgages don't get paid and it filters down to states don't get their tax income and crime goes sky high.

    It needs to stabilize pretty fast but I don't see any stability with LIBOR rates still through the roof. Sadly, I really don't think anyone knows what the hell to do accept to continue to throw more money at the problem. No one is even worried about the effect that will have on inflation any more.

    Throwing money at part of the economy will only further piss off more people that don't get a piece of the pie.

    You are going to see a lot more transparency and a lot more regulation come out of this but it will be a long time coming and with more transparency and regulation will come depressed stock prices.

    Even if the DOW jumps, say 1,000 points in 1 day, the pressure to sell in order to take less of a loss when you can, will be so very high that I don't think we will ever see the top of a year ago again for at least several years.

    Some people now say they don't see the light at the end of the tunnel until 3rd quarter 2009 and most don't see it at all.

    The smart people got out a year ago yesterday at the top. The rest of us will loose, period :mad:

    Hold on to your hats, it will be a bumpy ride.
     
  9. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2006
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Midwest
    The market is not trading on fundamentals. This morning GE and IBM (huge Dow components) came out with positive news and the market still opened down 600 points. Panic selling.

    Where are the fucking buyers? People are getting hurt badly.

    The buyers need to move in.
     
  10. faceking

    faceking Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2004
    Messages:
    7,522
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    85
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Mavs, NOR * CAL
  11. lucky8

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2006
    Messages:
    3,716
    Likes Received:
    17
    Gender:
    Male
    I"m going with 8800 by xmas
     
  12. lucky8

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2006
    Messages:
    3,716
    Likes Received:
    17
    Gender:
    Male
    Who wants to place a bet that it'll close below 8000 today?
     
  13. SpeedoGuy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    4,229
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    10
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    You may have already hit it.

    Apparently has already gone below that, don't know if it will remain below.
     
  14. 1BiGG1

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    Messages:
    1,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
    10-11,000
     
  15. Drifterwood

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    15,725
    Likes Received:
    386
    Location:
    Fingringhoe (GB)
    I think that there is a once bitten quite shy mentality. I personally haven't invested in stocks for ten years, preferring to back my own endeavours and to be responsible for myself. I may be tempted bak, but I want to see a flat line.

    The banks at least look like being kept afloat though the big RBS group in the UK is still taking a battering and as others have said, the rest of the economy is looking like a disaster waiting to happen. Reminds me almost of a tsunami. The working capital is disappearing from the beach and the mother of all waves is building up to come crashing down. The smart money has headed for the hills.
     
  16. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2006
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Midwest
    staging a bit of a comeback at the moment. Please end positive.
     
  17. SteveHd

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2006
    Messages:
    3,849
    Likes Received:
    6
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Daytona
    ^ Dead Cat Bounce! :biggrin:

    --------

    I'll weigh in with a low of 7,500, with the bottom being reached this month.
     
    #17 SteveHd, Oct 10, 2008
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2008
  18. Drifterwood

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    15,725
    Likes Received:
    386
    Location:
    Fingringhoe (GB)
    That's a pretty good call I would say. The market will reflect the likely disaster scenario for the coming 12 months or so, and whether it turns out better or worse will determine where it goes from the new year. Some sectors and companies will do better than expected and some worse. Seems the trick will be to call this right. Any views?

    PS - how many lives did this dead cat have?
     
  19. D_Bob_Crotchitch

    D_Bob_Crotchitch New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2006
    Messages:
    8,498
    Likes Received:
    18
    When FDR gave his famous we have nothing to fear but fear itself speech, it was to try and counteract the absolute panic among the public. Panics cause sound financial institutions to fold, stock market crashes, and sheer lunacy among people.
     
Draft saved Draft deleted