How Will Coronavirus Affect The Housing Market?

wallyj84

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How do you guys think the coronavirus and the upcoming depression will affect the housing market?

I for one am very glad I haven't bought a house yet. I feel like I dodged a bullet.
 

Jason

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For UK residential property my thinking is as follows:

* Try to get a ballpark for the fall. Down 10%? 20%? 30%?
* UK's worst ever recent fall was 1979-83, down about 20%.
* I think it as to be worse than this, so down ballpark 30%.
* I looked at a UK property auction a few days ago. More than half were withdrawn from sale. It's always complicated to get a feel for what a property would have been worth a couple of weeks ago. My back-of-an-envelope view is that prices are right now down 27%.
* I'm going for a fall of 30%-35%, so huge.

I think many with a house will avoid selling. A drop of 30% on what is most people's biggest asset is catastrophic. I don't think there will be much on the market. There will also be the properties offered for sale just before lockdown which will remain on estate agents' books but won't really be in the market.

There will of course be the forced sales: deaths, divorces, job moves, and loss of job or company failure forcing the sale of second homes. Additionally we are going through a patch where many tenants aren't going to pay their rent. I think many landlords will decide enough is enough and sell up. And there are bank repossessions which will force sales.

I don't know how much time must elapse from the end of lockdown to houses being offered for sale at sensible prices. I don't think it will be instant. I think there is going to be a very frustrating time for both buyers and sellers while the market adjusts.
 
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223790

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Property values are expected to increase in Canada this and next year especially with the mandatory shut down of the home construction industry and extremely low interest rates from the Bank of Canada. There is already an inventory shortage, so this shutdown is only expected to drive up prices which are crazy already.
 

wallyj84

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Property values are expected to increase in Canada this and next year especially with the mandatory shut down of the home construction industry and extremely low interest rates from the Bank of Canada. There is already an inventory shortage, so this shutdown is only expected to drive up prices which are crazy already.

Is there expected to be mass layoffs and record high unemployment in Canada like there is in the US? How can prices go up in an environment where unemployment is very high?
 

Thikn2velvet1

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I can say this, back in January I was looking at getting a small home in a Florida beach town. There were 14 properties listed at the time. Prices were firm.

Today they are 272 properties listed and the same 14 are just about all still there with fairly deep price decreases.
 

Industrialsize

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One immediate effect I'm hearing about is difficulty in closing of real estate transactions that began before "stay at home orders" were put in place by our Governor. Agents are having trouble with sign off on documents for closing such as Board's of Health, Fire inspections etc. I've heard of "paperless closings" to avoid viral spread.
 
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Is there expected to be mass layoffs and record high unemployment in Canada like there is in the US? How can prices go up in an environment where unemployment is very high?

Unemployment has gone up, but there are still a lot of people working from home (like me) and those that are classified as essential workers (like my wife). While I'm not a fan of our PM and his party, I do have to give them credit for managing this crisis well. It's good to see all of the political parties working together for once for the common good. Interest rates are low, employment Insurance rules have been relaxed, stimulus money has been injected into the economy, and mortgage/loan deferrals are available for 6 months from the big banks if you can show you've been impacted financially from the outbreak.

House prices haven't taken a hit yet, but there is a huge slowdown in the real estate industry. Of course we are in uncharted territory, so no one knows for certain what will happen yet. Despite everything that's going on, there is still a prediction that house prices will rise this year and next with inventory being low and rock bottom interest rates. At the end of the day, no matter what's going on in the world, everyone still needs a place to live.
 
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Squirrel1

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Unemployment has gone up, but there are still a lot of people working from home (like me) and those that are classified as essential workers (like my wife). While I'm not a fan of our PM and his party, I do have to give them credit for managing this crisis well. It's good to see all of the political parties working together for once for the common good.
Agree with political aspect. Although I’m more liberal than conservative, our PM has not overly impressed me, since he was elected. However, he is handling this crises well. I am not a fan of our provincial (Ontario) premier, but am impressed by his performance regarding the pandemic. I’m happy we have two strong leaders in control at this time. I do feel sorry for our neighbours to the south. I can’t think of a worst president, to have, when dealing with something like this.
 
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Jason

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The UK lockdown has had the effect of stopping all house transactions which are somewhere in the negotiation process. The lockdown does not permit people to physically move home. In theory I suppose someone might buy a second home but (unless it is within a very few miles of their first home) there is no way to physically visit it on completion day.

Basically all property deals are off and will need to be renegotiated. Anyone buying must realise that the price has fallen. Anyone buying with a mortgage will need to re-apply for their mortgage (and again demonstrate income and job security).

It's as bad as anyone can imagine.
 
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d3ofol_griffin

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Everything is on pause. Everyone is in survival mode. It's a mess. Complicated transactions forget it. What it will be like when this virus moves into the background and things start moving again? I wish I knew. I think this event will alter our perception of what is desirable.
 

sudcalifornio

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My brother died in February, leaving my step-sisters and me his beautiful house near Lake Tahoe. It looks like we won't be selling it any time soon.

Nothing good about 2020 so far.
LUCKY BASTARD
 

Shrume

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I bought my first house in 2005 and my new house in 2019. Both at what looks like will be the height of the market. I’m still trying to sell my old house. I think the best thing right now is just to hold out and wait and see. I don’t think the economy is gonna be as bad as we think. So I would definitely take advantage of a good deal right now but hold out if your selling.
 

sudcalifornio

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I bought my first house in 2005 and my new house in 2019. Both at what looks like will be the height of the market. I’m still trying to sell my old house. I think the best thing right now is just to hold out and wait and see. I don’t think the economy is gonna be as bad as we think. So I would definitely take advantage of a good deal right now but hold out if your selling.
what are the price range there?
 

Shrume

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what are the price range there?
I bought the one in 2005 for 125,000. It’s in the ghetto but had been redone when everybody was redoing houses. I would absolutely love to come even close to that. I’d take 110,000 right now, before all of this happened. The one I’m at now doesn’t matter because I plan on living here for a long time.
 
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seventiesdemon

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Where's Wally?
26219844-0-image-a-13_1584736065436.jpg
 

seventiesdemon

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As far as I am concerned......you wish to devalue a persons place of safety and solitude, where families can gather together..............

Humans started out in caves....they painted them, they thrived in them, humans survived viruses the elements and Dinosaurs and wild animals within them.

Now humans lives in homes, houses...........and it's come down to economics?.........Yeah, I agree, some of the "Architect" designed shit is way over the top......But who pays for that shit? Not me. You know who were the first designers and builders of the Pyramids in Egypt and Castles of Medieval times ? Stonemasons.

Then someone invented University Degrees..............I'm guessing someone of notoriety....Like everything in religion and education, it started out with good intentions. But ended up being a milking cow for the elite.

Now governments call it...............Job "Creation" ...yeah....ok.