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I got my "I voted sticker"

Discussion in 'Politics' started by D_Marazion Analdouche, Nov 4, 2008.

  1. D_Marazion Analdouche

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    One thing I can't stand are Exit Polls, they really should be illegal. I haven't even put my sunglasses on as I walk out the exit door and some schmuck is jabbing a clipboard in my face asking to take the survey.
     
  2. B_Lightkeeper

    B_Lightkeeper Banned

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    I'm going to vote shortly. If a person confronts me as I leave and wants to know who I voted for, I'll simply say "the person I think is best qualified!"
     
  3. tripod

    tripod Legendary Member

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    You don't like exit polls because they are good at pointing out fraud. Bush stole two elections in a row and the exit polls were CORRECT.

    In every state that did NOT have the electronic voting machines... the exit polls were PERFECT.

    The states with the Diebold machines had wildly out of sync exit polls.

    If you can't figure that out, you are either brain damaged or just another douchenozzle liar republican.
     
  4. Principessa

    Principessa Expert Member

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    I voted two weeks ago Monday and not only was there no line, no one asked me any questions when I left.:confused:

    Gee, no wonder we black folks feel so disenfranchised. :frown1::tongue:

    :biggrin1: This is sarcasm folks.
     
  5. prepstudinsc

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    I voted early as an absentee voter, since I was thinking of going out of town today. I changed my plans and will be leaving tomorrow instead, but when I voted, there was no exit poller. All I got was my "I voted" sticker.
     
  6. D_Marazion Analdouche

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    Riiiight, that's why I don't like exit polls. Exit polls prove nothing, people do not have to be honest when filling them out. They are not absolute, and are just for media outlets giving them something to report. With them being open to error they cause more controversy than don't.

    You speak like Democrats have never practiced voter fraud, give it a rest. People that have blinders on and refuse to look at the same mistakes their "party" and speak to them loses credibility. Both parties are corrupt and people in either party that cast stones without looking in their own house is very closed minded. You really need to relax and understand if someone makes a comment doesn't mean they are on one side of the fence or the other. For your information, the people I have voted for president since 92' have not won. So you fail in guessing where my vote lies.

    What's funny is that exit polls were only ran in certain districts in my area. It seemed as if a certain "demographic" was being sought out from what I saw.
     
  7. Gillette

    Gillette Sexy Member

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    Tripod, I don't know what you're getting bent out of shape over here.

    Wartrac is expressing his dislike over having someone in his face not two seconds after stepping out the door. Why must you assume there is an agenda in that?
     
  8. D_Marazion Analdouche

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    I was kinda confused too.
     
  9. tripod

    tripod Legendary Member

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    Why in the hell would anyone lie to an exit poll? It makes no sense at all. What does make sense is that the exit polls are one of the only SAFEGUARDS in our voting system. They work.

    Well, that's very interesting Wartrac, seeing that I am the king of generalizations, I can get it wrong sometimes.

    That said, we don't have a problem with voter fraud in this country... we just DON'T!!!

    We DO however have a problem with the republicans committing election fraud.

    Only 17 people were convicted of voter fraud in the U.S. between 2002 and 2005... and that was under Bush and Co's reign of power.

    yet

    Thousands of Democrats were disenfranchised out of their vote in 2004.

    Voter fraud is just a lame and endless talking point for the conservative blogs and radio dj's to whip up Republicans into believing that Democrats are trying to steal the election. As a Democrat, I don't want to win something if it was won unfairly, it is against my personal beliefs and morals.

    Well, they can't put an exit pollster in every precinct in the country, they have to choose their battles wisely.
     
  10. CALAMBO

    CALAMBO Sexy Member

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    i voted this morn....no line..no exit polls...used the electronic ballot...no problem...i am a bit confused why we spend the extra money to vote early...i see no reason to offer such...either show up or do not...the small differnce would not affect the outcome...the extra money spent could be used more wisely...GLAD IT IS OVER IN OHIO...
     
  11. D_Marazion Analdouche

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    Because a lot of people don't like the idea of exit polls. It's not like I'm alone on this. In my little "circle" of friends etc, none of us provide accurate information regarding exit polls. They are hired by media outlets, they are not doing this for "verifying votes" they do it for ratings.

    Some countries have made this practice illegal, I think we should follow. At the minimum, make the results of exit polls witheld until ALL THE POLLS are closed. There is NO reason at all to release this information while the polls are open. Keep your polls, just keep the information gathered sealed until polls are closed and everyone has had a chance to vote.




    You're going to tell me that Democrats have never committed fraud?

    Or how about just moving the goal posts and trying to change things to fit their needs.

    The Gore team wanting to toss out some of the Military absentee votes because they lacked proper postage? One side of their mouth "every vote should count" and then the other "only if it has a stamp on it".

    As did people in the Military being told their vote may not count.

    Kinda my point, by not getting accurate absolute data on every voter, exit polls prove nothing if they only get less then half the districts.
     
    #11 D_Marazion Analdouche, Nov 4, 2008
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  12. nudeyorker

    nudeyorker Cherished Member

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    I put my sunglasses on right after I voted and looked mean and in a hurry leaving...no one stopped me!
     
  13. Pecker

    Pecker Retired Moderator

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    People tend to be politically correct when answering oral questions, unlike what they do in the privacy of the voting booth.

    I always lie at exit polls because, frankly, I don't think they should be allowed.
     
  14. D_Chocho_Lippz

    D_Chocho_Lippz Account Disabled

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    No exit pollers here either. In and out for me...

    As for exit pollers. While they may be a "check" against voter fraud.... there has yet to be any confirmed charges being brought up by any of the past voter fraud cases due to their data, has there? (Edit: Because people can and do lie as Pecker said he does above, plus many other people)

    So as it seems to me, as of right now, they are just a nuisance.

    BTW, I love the Arizona voter card. None of this "hanging chad" BS. None of this "Black Box" BS either. Just connect the arrow next to who you want to vote for.
    TWO arrows = no vote
    NO arrows = no vote
    ONE arrow = vote
    NO questions.... and the voter cards are retained... (Edit: paper trail!)
    Sample ballot for me here.... wish everyone had one like this.
     
    #14 D_Chocho_Lippz, Nov 4, 2008
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  15. killerb

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    hmmm...I've never been polled after voting...EVER...:hmmm:
     
  16. chadstallion

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    and I got my free cup of Starbucks coffee today by telling the barista "I voted".....
     
  17. D_Fiona_Farvel

    D_Fiona_Farvel Account Disabled

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    :( I am denied a cup of coffee because it is illegal to compensate voters here.
     
  18. exwhyzee

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    That ain't fair. I just voted and got a little round sticker for my shirt. I then went to Starbucks and ordered a tall Pike's...and it was handed to me with a smile by a cute little blond girl who said "Thank you, no charge!".

    Life is good. :biggrin1:

    *Sips free coffee*
     
  19. Biggin'

    Biggin' 1st Like

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    ill put an end to this. some dont want to be yelled at that they are racist.....

    from drudge:



    McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
    BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER
    Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET

    As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

    However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.

    Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

    1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

    2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

    3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

    4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

    5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

    After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

    “Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.

    We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.

    In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.

    The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.

    So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.

    The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.

    Conclusions

    Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.

    It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.
     
  20. Biggin'

    Biggin' 1st Like

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  21. D_Fiona_Farvel

    D_Fiona_Farvel Account Disabled

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    Enjoy your sippin'. :(
    I wanted a pumpkin frappuccino anyway... besides I'm headed to Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, so there. :fing26: :tongue:
     
  22. exwhyzee

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    Jeez, I was willing to share. :tongue:
     
  23. D_Chaumbrelayne_Copprehead

    D_Chaumbrelayne_Copprehead Account Disabled

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    I got my sticker ...

    No exit pollers at my precinct, either. No lines, either, although they were busy this morning and will be again at the afternoon rush hour, probably.
     

    Attached Files:

  24. mindseye

    mindseye Experimental Member

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    I disagree. We backup computer data in case the data is corrupted; our votes are far more important. The absence of a reliable method of safeguarding our vote data from possible corruption shakes public confidence in the results. (I mean this word neutrally, to include both accidental corruption through mechanical/electronic failure and possible intentional corruption.)

    Exit polling doesn't fully serve this purpose, but it's better than nothing -- which is all we've got at this point.

    Until our voting and tabulation process is more open: voter-verified paper trails, public tabulation, etc., I continue to support exit polling.
     
  25. Jason

    Jason Superior Member

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    A UK exit poll that got it badly wrong was for the 1992 general election. Here the exit polls predicted either a Labour victory or a hung parliament when in fact the outcome was a Conservative victory. The exit polls were in agreement with most pre-election polls. It seems that people voted one way in the polling booth and two minutes later told the exit poll guy they had voted the opposite. There was a "shy Tory factor" where people felt it wasn't cool to say they had voted Conservative even though this is what they had done. Around 3% of the population said they had voted Labour when in fact they had voted Conservative (making the exit poll out by around 6%).

    I guess the UK view would be don't believe polls, not even exit polls - they can be badly wrong.

    Our pollsters now consider the "shy Tory factor". They also tend to state a huge margin of error, usually +/-3%, which means a gap as big as 6% can be no gap at all (or can be a massive 12%).
     
  26. D_Chocho_Lippz

    D_Chocho_Lippz Account Disabled

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    How about...

     
  27. trumasseur

    trumasseur Experimental Member

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    Zogby Double Whammy: Final Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby National and Battleground States Polls

    Note to news outlets: This Zogby poll is free from copyright restrictions. You are free to broadcast or publish this release in whatever format you choose. There is no need to seek further permission from Zogby International.
    [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]Reporters: Want an interview with Zogby?
    Contact:
    Fritz Wenzel
    Director of Communications
    315-624-0200 ext. 229
    fritz@zogby.com
    [/FONT]
    Breaking News Story #1 - Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Final: Obama in Double-Digit Lead, 54% to 43%



    UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 11.4 points over Republican John McCain in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll -- up from a 7.1 point advantage in yesterday's report. The final tally now stands at 54.1% for Obama compared to 42.7% for McCain.
    Pollster John Zogby: "Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change."
    Please click the link below to view the full news release:
    Zogby International
    Breaking News Story #2 - Reuters/Zogby Battleground 8-State Surveys: Obama Holds On in GOP Territory

    Perennial toss-up states playing their traditional roles

    Final Numbers!


    ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA 311, McCAIN 174, TOSS-UP 53
    UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama enters Election Day in a very favorable position to be elected President, having made inroads on formerly Republican turf, while GOP candidate John McCain plays defense. Here is the final wrap-up of battleground states in the race for the White House 2008.
    The surveys were conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, 2008. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.
    Please click the link below to view the full news release:
    Zogby International
     
  28. Zeuhl34

    Zeuhl34 Expert Member

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    I know I'm digressing, but in response to thread's title, I have to say I voted by mail last Monday, and I want a sticker. :p
     
  29. Principessa

    Principessa Expert Member

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    Nope, sorry I don't like that one. Who are all those other names in the box with each Presidential Candidate? Also how come y'all had 5 choices for President?

    We only had 3 in Georgia. Obama, Barr, and Mc Cain. I honestly didn't even know Barr was a choice until I got there and saw his name on the touch screen. I was like who the hell is that? I had no idea there was a 3rd choice. :tongue:

     
  30. Jason

    Jason Superior Member

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    There are going to be a lot of people on this board who know more about margin of error calculations than I do. BUT -

    The usual way to calculate a margin or error is 1 divided by the square root of the sample size - which for 600 give +/-4% or thereabouts. But a result of +/-4% is not impressive as this is a big margin. You've got to almost double your sample size to get +/-3%. You need 2,000 for +/-2%.

    Then you take into account sampling problems with your sample which will add uncertainty to the result. There probably is a shy Republican factor in US opinion polling right now. If it is comparable to the 1992 UK election it could be +/-3%, so the total error on this poll may be more like +/-7%.

    Seems to me they have Obama somewhere between 47% and 61% and McCain somewhere between 36% and 50%. While they are indicating Obama it is no-where near as clear as they may be arguing, and their own results (with a "Shy Republican" factor put in) permit a McCain victory.
     
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