If You Think Things Are Bad Now

Phil Ayesho

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I doubt that.
China is looking at labor riots now...

They could not survive pulling back from capitalism, as the people would revolt habing got a taste of the good life.

The one good thing about the Global Economy is that, just as our financial instituiotns are too big to fail...
As a consumer economy, the US is too big for the rest of the world to allow to fail.

China pulling the plug would only occur in the face of a world wide collapse of civilization..... as in fall of Rome into the dark ages style.

Not that that is not a real possibility, given the imbecility of Supply Side economics and 28 years of Republican economic policies dominating....
 

Elmer Gantry

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I know that economic pessimism has been forbidden by the powers that be but that reporter isn't the first or the only one to be saying this.

The only thing I don't agree with is that China won't have much say in whether it wants to hang onto it's USD position. The bottom shoud start dropping out of the USD by mid year and I don't think they'll have any option but to dump it for whatever they can get for it.

As you said, they already have trouble with an annoyed population. What of the Chinese decide they want to use some of that money to stimulate their own economy and decide to cash in.

Will they supplant North Korea or Venezuala as a new member of the axis of evil?

Will we be shown pictures of "illegal" WMD labs?
 

Elmer Gantry

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The situation the author describes has been going on for years. China has even more to lose than we do in this scenario.

But nothing lasts forever. Especially not inflationary monetrary policy. One way or another, it is designed to crash now and again.

China will hurt, but this is a problem particular to the USA. If the dollar looses so much value it is supplanted by another currency as the world standard, the ramifications would be mortal.

Don't forget, China has a diverse and prosperous manufacturing base of epic dimensions. What has the USA got left except for it's "service" indutries?
 

B_starinvestor

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But nothing lasts forever. Especially not inflationary monetrary policy. One way or another, it is designed to crash now and again.

China will hurt, but this is a problem particular to the USA. If the dollar looses so much value it is supplanted by another currency as the world standard, the ramifications would be mortal.

Don't forget, China has a diverse and prosperous manufacturing base of epic dimensions. What has the USA got left except for it's "service" indutries?

Our 'service' industries still dominate worldwide economics. I'm not dismissing fabrics or toys, but technology and related 'service' industries aren't going away, Chuck. Our engineering and intellectual properties..which are a function of the greatest capitalist economy in world history...will continue to keep the U.S. at the apex of worldwide prosperity.

BTW, Japan is a bigger bank to the U.S. than China...both would be destroyed if they gave the U.S. the 'finger' on debt.

We run the worldwide economy. Pure and simple. We're the water of the worldwide economic ecosystem.
 

Elmer Gantry

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And yet the Euro is the more stable currency (and backed by a prosperous population of twice the USA), the mid east and Russia have all the energy and the USA outsourced any industry that actually made anything years ago.

I think you're economy is mostly paper and what we are about to witness is the biggest deleveraging of the USD in history.

But that's just my opinion.
 

B_starinvestor

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And yet the Euro is the more stable currency (and backed by a prosperous population of twice the USA), the mid east and Russia have all the energy and the USA outsourced any industry that actually made anything years ago.

I think you're economy is mostly paper and what we are about to witness is the biggest deleveraging of the USD in history.

But that's just my opinion.

Well, the Euro is still a backup QB to the dollar, and that will not change anytime soon. The Mideast and Russia have a lot of oil, but don't confuse that with 'energy' and the outsourcing of manufacturing products was painful in the short term..but will strengthen the global economy in the long term. If we (U.S.) can't compete in a product...then we need to get better or we need to lose that product...in our lifetimes I doubt we will ever lose traction in the service/intellectual properties industry...if we do, then we need to deal with the fact that we 'aint that good.'

On the 'de-levering' issue...our debt is still the most sought after on the globe. If you believe that the int'l community is losing confidence in our economy, I ask you the question...whose is stronger? The answer is zippo. If the U.S. economy fails, everything goes to shit, period.
 

B_VinylBoy

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Well, my aim is to inform and entertain, thanks for the vote of confidence. Ta-ta, for now.

Before you go patting yourself on the ass, let it be known...
You're not informative. You're irritative.
You're not a source of entertainment. You're a source of ridicule.

You somehow think you're enlightening people on the board, but you're repeating the same exact broken record conservative rhetoric that has been trumpeted on this forum since June '08. If I was voting for "Worst Parental Result due to Commercial Breaks during Ed Sullivan", I would definitely cast my ballot for you. But since it's for confidence, you lose.

Ta-ta, honey... :rolleyes:
 

Elmer Gantry

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OK. I still think the EEC is stronger and the USA will be cut adrift into a hyperinflationary tragedy.

I can't see where the real money is coming from for all this. Bernanke himself has admitted that the only thing he has left is a printing press. This alone is enough to make me run for the hills.

And if Obama thinks he can walk in with some kind of "New Deal" policy which will work, then it's all over.

What that country needs right now is less government, more people saving money instead of hocking themelves with hopes and dreams as collateral and to start making stuff again instead of packing your manufacturing off to (insert 3rd world country here).
 
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B_starinvestor

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OK. I still think the EEC is stronger and the USA will be cut adrift into a hyperinflationary tragedy.

I can't see where the real money is coming from for all this. Bernanke himself has admitted that the only thing he has left is a printing press. This alone is enough to make me run for the hills.

And if Obama thinks he can walk in with some kind of "New Deal" policy which will work, then it's all over.

What that country needs right now is less government, more people saving money instead of hocking themelves with hopes and dreams as collateral and to start making stuff again instead of packing your manufacturing off to (insert 3rd world country here).

No argument on most of your points. His stimulus package is a joke. Don't fool yourself tho,...Bernacke is baffled, he has no idea what to say...but he has to say something. The Bernacke/Paulson bailout of $700 billion has done zero. Nada. It'll be a while before things get good again...but they will.