Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Crude oil and the Political insability

Will there be a war involving Iran with regards to its atomic ideals within the year?


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unabear09

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I figure Bush and the Repubs will have us in a war with Iran b/f his presidency is over with.

reasons

#1 he, Chaney, and all the other sorry sobs who are in the oil industry will make profits from the price of oil increase due to the war. Once again the rich and greedy making a killing off the backs of the working class

#2 To ensure that a republican (McCain) will be elected president

I think the US is behind the majority of the strikes and 'training missions' that have been and are occurring in Israel. The Israelis will get attacked, most likely in response to them attacking someone else, and the US and Israelis will declare war on Iran, and blame them for everything

Please excuse my frankness......I took a pain pill not to long ago adn am a bit loopy. :biggrin1:
 

liberalcynic

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liberalcynic

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There will not be war as long as the American people are fed up with this kind of imperialistic nonsense.

Iran only wants nukes because the IUS keeps making noise about invading them. Guess what? Any nation with nukes gets treated with a lot more respect for it sovereignty.
Who wouldn't want them?

The Iranians are not stupid. They would not start tossing nukes around because they know both Israel and the US have more than enough to slag their entire population in 20 minutes time.

This knowledge is why NOBODY uses nukes. Not one nation WITH nuclear capabilities is a problem on the world stage. Nuclear weapons keep your neighbors in their own yard... stabilize your


Iran is not a THREAT... its an opportunity... while we are busy sewing discord, dissent and divisiveness everywhere we go... the Iranians are actually the only working democracy in the islamic world.

Engagement and trade is the path to a more cooperative world.
It worked with Red China.... its working with Korea....it will work with Iran.


Sheesh...the infuriating thing is that this is all elementary Game theory... somthing the govenrment has spent billions of dollars figuring out.

Its not a notion, nor something we ought to "try out".... it is a proven strategy that underlies ALL human society.








Yeah right!
Turkey | A tragedy in the making | Economist.com
Turkey | Beyond the veil | Economist.com

There is only one fully operating Islamic state which is a democracy: it's Turkey. But it's going backwards...
Malaysia has had 1 party in control for it's entire existance. Iran is a democracy, with 1 party the islamic revolutionary party. Know what you're talking about first before saying anything
 
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Phil Ayesho

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hardly an argument... same with faceking.

Sorry, but your ignorance of Iran is not evidence of anything.
They HAVE elections...

As far as the clerics influence over government... it is rapidly waning as the generation that tossed the Shah is dying off.
And the younger generation? They are mostly PRO US... because they have computers and access to media.

Surely its not a democracy like ours ( if ours even still qualifies) and its not a democracy like Israel, where anyone who is not Jewish has no representation in government at all.... ( democracy?)

But it IS an islamic democracy... and its a democracy THEY built themselves... without inept US consultants forcing something that can't possibly work down their throats.


If you imagine the US can "build democracies" you're sadly mistaken... especially in a country like Iraq which has always been run by tribal mafiosi thru ruthlessness.

Iran has taken large strides AWAY from the era of the Ayatollah... and done so all on their own..
And they want nukes because that is the only way they can KEEP other nations out of their shit.

As oil becomes more costly... and it will continue to trend higher from here on... and the West gets MORE militaristic in its attempts to secure affordable oil... ALL the oil exporting states will be seeking the security that only nukes can provide.


The US is driving this dynamic... by arbitrarily labeling other nations as "evil" and setting up propaganda machines to whip up public support of killing them.

And if you fall for the IRan as enemy line, you are being played like a cheap kazoo...

This adminsitration governs thru fear... and they always have to have an identifiable boogieman to wage "war" against.

People are bored with Bin Laden... so now its the illegals at home and the Iranians overseas...

But there is ZERO evidence that either one pose any significant threat.

It just an excuse for adventuring and corporate imperialism.

OR don't you folks read about how the oil companies are finally seizing control of the Iraqi oil fields?


Anyone afraid of Iran is worse than a sucker. They are a willing stooge in trying to CREATE a problem with a country that COULD be our biggest asset in the Gulf.
 

Phil Ayesho

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Yeah right!
Turkey | A tragedy in the making | Economist.com
Turkey | Beyond the veil | Economist.com

There is only one fully operating Islamic state which is a democracy: it's Turkey. But it's going backwards...
Malaysia has had 1 party in control for it's entire existance. Iran is a democracy, with 1 party the islamic revolutionary party. Know what you're talking about first before saying anything


An islamic state would be one in which the religous leaders have control of government...

Turkey is has not been an islamic state for some time... and Malaysia is fighting to keep from becoming an islamic state.
 

Phil Ayesho

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2) Not all nations that have nukes are treated with more respect. Pakistan is case on point. It has been treated far worse by the international community since it tested its nuclear weapons. (and rightfully so)

Bullshit... Al Queda is headquartered in Pakistan... Have we invaded it yet?
No.. Are we talking about invading it? No.
Guess why?

Same reason India has not invaded over the territorial dispute. Nukes protect a nation from foreign incursion. Period.

3) You assume that the Iranian leadership follows the same form of logic you do. Religious fundamentalists who believe they are on a mission from God tend to have a logic all their own. Though I tend to agree that they are unlikely to just suddenly start nuking people out of the blue.
I assume no such thing... others assume that because they are not a secular democracy that they are illogical.
I assume folks will act in their own best interest... even religious folks ( not necessarily "nuts" just because they are religious)

No one guy in Iran has the keys to the nukes and no one guy will have. ( because they are not run by a despot) UNLIKE other middle east nations they did not fall into despotism nor monarchy after their revolution.... rather, they have shown a willingness to try and create a real government with ongoing democratic traditions.

And as to the US... the Reason Iran is making nuclear noises is because it WORKED for Korea... Did we invade Korea? No. DId we sanction them? no.

WE CUT A DEAL AND OPENED TRADE WITH THEM.

Yeah, that was an effective strategy... teach the world to get some nukes so that the US will talk to them...


4) Please rethink the notion that nuclear weapons stabilizes a nation that possesses them and causes stabilization in the region. That is reverse causation. Historically, it is only powerful nations, that are stable in the first place, that gain them. North Korea proves the fallacy in your thinking. No one bothered the DPRK for decades (if they wanted to live in their own little paranoid Stalinistic society, everyone was happy to let them, no matter how much they tried to provoke their neighbors) until the issue of the nuclear weapons program came to light in the early 90's. Tensions and regional instability have only increased due to the North Koreans wanting nuclear weapons.

I donlt have to rethink the evidence of historical fact.
Nations with nukes, even tinpot one, DONLT get fucked with.
Tinpot nations with nukes FORCE the US to grant concessions, come to the bargaining table and make deals... which is exactly what happened with Korea.
Nuclear weapons eliminated war between large nations. They are eliminating war between second world and third nations ( i.e. Pakistan and India have not come to nukes over their territorial disputes...)

Yes... nukes are scary...
what the hell is the POINT of a standing army if not to scare other nations out of even thinking about attacking you?

Nukes turn out to be the only weapon SCARY ENOUGH to actually dissuade folks from invading you.

OF COURSE nations want them.

IF Saddam had HAD one, he would still be in power today.
That lesson... the lesson of Kim Jong Il versus Saddam is not lost on the rest of the world.


5) Pakistan is a great example of a nation with nuclear weapons attacking another nation with nuclear weapons (India). Look up the Kargil War. Nuclear weapons in both Pakistani and Indian hands has not defused the Kashmir problem. It has only made the situation more dangerous.

Bullshit... Used to be real bloody battles fought over this slice of land... since both became nuclear states... mostly a few skirmishes and today? a situation of mutual dissent.. the exact same situation as the cold war in Europe.

No one could reasonably argue that if Pakistan and India were NOT both nuclear states that iut would be MORE peaceful between them over this issue.

6) Iran is not a working democracy, it is a theocracy. While the President is "elected" he first has to be approved by the Guardian Council, a religious body. No one may run for President or even for the legislature without their approval.

That is why IRan, and NOT Turkey, qualify as the first Islamic democracy.

And sorry... but we come pretty close in the US to being a Christian democracy... or would if the fundies here had their way...

So what? I am not saying Iran is the greatest thing since sliced bread... I am saying they have ELECTIONS... they elect their legislators... their legislature actually functions... they DON'T have a problem with internal insurgencies, with tribal warlords nor with baathist demagogues.

They run their own damn country WITHOUT US aid, and they do so thru the rule of Law... no, not our law... and sure some Sharia comes into it...but THEIR version of Sharia is actually pretty modern compared to the Taliban... who, thanks to our incompetence, are taking back Afghanistan and positively LIBERAL compared with the wahabist Saudi monarchists who we seem to think are our best friends, but whose Madrassa based extremism is the REAL source of Al Queda terrorists.



In the past Presidential election they invalidated every moderate reformer, and left only conservatives and radical fundamentalists. They also invalidated most of the moderates running for the legislature.

Again... so what? its their system and its at least working... the REAL news is that their elections and their legislators are becoming MORE moderate and More liberal... and less extremist... and their Clerics are Far less extremist than the oens we are paying off in iraq... and they are, over time becoming Less of a force in the country.

With engagement... by improving the lives of Iranians thru trade ( as we do in china) the pressure of the IRANIANS to shuck off the shackles of religious control of government will GROW...
The younger generation in Iran is already pressing for less religious intrusion into civic life and the economy... and they are getting it.
Without the support of the people, the clerics have no power at all.




Lastly, Indonesia has a much better claim at being the Islamic world's (outside Turkey) first working democracy.

Again, unless the clerics have a say over government, it would not be an islamic democracy.

Indonesia is fighting against the islamification of its government.
 
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Argentina invaded a UK territory, the Chinese fought the US in Korea. Nukes are no guarantee, but they do help.
 

maestro071

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The graves thing I think it's just propaganda sort of "We have a grave ready for every single soldier they can send here"

About the war, I hope it doesn't happen. It all depends on the new US president to come.

Hahaha... well said, but whose propaganda? This reminds me of Sadam's chemical weapon (never found on the ground, neither under ground), but was a good excuse for war with Iraq... Can't believe that some people still can eat all shit that they are served ...
 
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Hahaha... well said, but whose propaganda? This reminds me of Sadam's chemical weapon (never found on the ground, neither under ground), but was a good excuse for war with Iraq... Can't believe that some people still can eat all shit that they are served ...


Yeah, the graves thing isn't nearly as colorful as, "We will meet them with bullets and shoes!" Where's Baghdad Bob when you need him?