Iran trading in Euros/Yen and US's response

[B_nyvin]

Iran has started to do 90% of it's international trade in Euros and Yen, and the US starts going ape-sh!t bananas with sanctions and the like...sound familier? yeah, it happened in 2000 with Iraq, Saddam also started trading Oil in Euros, which argueably was one of the major reasons for the US to invade Iraq (and also a main reason for the French/Russians to oppose the war).

There is a problem this time though, war with Iran is impractical and too obvious, even with the WMD card. So brute force will not work this time around. The Chinese this time are also in support of Iran due to China's interest in seeing it's reserves of US dollars decline.

China refuses to impose full sanction against Iran, in fact ever since the invasion of Iraq China and Russia have been arming Iran's military to make the idea of a US invasion ever more unappealing.

The US cannot allow other currencies to gain too much of a reserve status due to the need for the US to sell off it's debt to (mostly China/Japan) other countries to prevent inflation and the value of the US dollar declining "too" rapidly. The world is starting to notice just how deeply commited the US is at this goal.

Are we delaying the inevitable though? China and Japan are already holding fewer and fewer dollar reserves anyway, OPEC still wants to trade in Euros and Yen, can we really keep fighting a losing war?

 

[D_Helmer Heighballs]

clicked on dude.

unfortunately, europeans on the whole tend to buy into mass media BS. so the same crap will happen again and again. the trick is to be either on a winning side or a neutral side. as much as it pains me to say it. we cannot change the status quo without first convincing people that they have the power of agency. which is to say that with numbers comes change. unfortunately too many people are "working jobs they hate to buy shit they don't need" which keeps them occupied enough to stop them from seeking to create a factor of physical agency so they can change things for the better.

peace.

 

[Drifterwood]

It's a free world. Isn't it?

 

[B_starinvestor]

The dollar has been rallying hard against the Euro for several months. I don't see where the sky is falling on this issue.

 

[Flashy]

China refuses to impose full sanction against Iran, in fact ever since the invasion of Iraq China and Russia have been arming Iran's military to make the idea of a US invasion ever more unappealing.

who said we were going to "invade" Iran? None of the operational plans for any strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would require "invasion"....in fact, that is the whole point.

An onslaught of air strikes and cruise missile attacks would more than do the job.

and even if it was, the arms sales from China and Russia have not been significant enough and the Iranian military is not well trained enough to handle a U.S. invasion anyway. Their ground forces are no match, their air force is old , antiquated, poorly trained and inexperienced and they would fare very poorly against the latest technologies.

Invasion is not necessary in the first place

 

[123scotty]

at last yes why did america get so jittery against sadam. he had killed and gassed his own population and no one gave a hoot. but when he changed to trading in euros instead of dollars. well all those over borrowed dollars went back to the american banks wooow. sadam must go . iran also has gone down the euro route using the iran bureau to trade oil in euros. and guess what oh yes they to are a world problem. hmmmm makes you think

 

[D_Helmer Heighballs]

who said we were going to "invade" Iran? None of the operational plans for any strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would require "invasion"....in fact, that is the whole point.

An onslaught of air strikes and cruise missile attacks would more than do the job.

and even if it was, the arms sales from China and Russia have not been significant enough and the Iranian military is not well trained enough to handle a U.S. invasion anyway. Their ground forces are no match, their air force is old , antiquated, poorly trained and inexperienced and they would fare very poorly against the latest technologies.

Invasion is not necessary in the first place

technology wont win a war against those who have no fear of death. tanks are made to fight tanks. iran is a biig country. not so easily a win able war, not like fighting illirerates who have been battered by centuries of war living in fuckign mudhuts.

 

[Flashy]

technology wont win a war against those who have no fear of death. tanks are made to fight tanks. iran is a biig country. not so easily a win able war, not like fighting illirerates who have been battered by centuries of war living in fuckign mudhuts.

the Iranian military is a poorly trained, poorly equipped force, where the best gear and training is saved for the IRGC divisions.

and are you suggesting that the Iranian Military have "no fear of death"? I would suggest you speak to many of the Iranian troops who fought during the Iran-Iraq War.

1. Tanks are not made to fight tanks. Tanks are made to fight anything they come in contact with and spearhead the heavy and mechanized divisions which bring the infantry into the field in fighting vehicles...they are not exclusive. You do realize that battles are not static encounters of tank vs tank, don't you? Anything can fight a tank...anti-tank platoon of soldiers, helicopters, planes, mines, barriers....

besides...Iranian tanks suck.

2. You did not need to "win a war" *IN* Iran. the goal is not to invade them, the goal is to destroy their military and nuclear infrastructure, which can be done from the air.

Defeating a country does not require invasion of its homeland. See Japan in WW2.

France under Napoleon, and too many other countries to mention throughout the history of modern warfare.

Iran's size does not matter...knock out their power grid, air defenses, oil refineries, Naval ports, air bases, army bases, communications hubs, command structure/posts, dams, and most importantly their nuclear program sites, plus all their military production facilities and they are back in the stone age.

that can be rather easily accomplished with missile and air power.

3. it is actually more difficult fighting illiterates...since they had and do not use weapons systems that can be found and destroyed.

The Apache Indians of the American Southwest were among the most cunning warriors in history...Geronimo and his band of "illiterates" managed to evade thousands of american soldiers for years and years, even though those same soldiers rather easily defeated the Mexican military in the conventional military clashes of that time.

In order to defeat someone, you have to find them first.

you cannot always find a terrorist, a guerrilla, a partisan...you can always find the Iranian Air Force Bases and power plants.

you need to do more study on military history and conflict.

 

[B_nyvin]

almost none of the post are about the orginal topic, that is iran trading in euros and yen...and how fanatic the usa is about preventing that.

 

[Sergeant_Torpedo]

And that is why secretly US would like Greece to fail - it would be a nail in th coffin for the Euro. Tell you what, if you think China is your friend then you are stupider than I took you all for.

 

[B_nyvin]

And that is why secretly US would like Greece to fail - it would be a nail in th coffin for the Euro. Tell you what, if you think China is your friend then you are stupider than I took you all for.

No it wouldn't...the Euro is too large to "fail" simply from the Greek economy. The US dollar has far far more to worry about then the Euro does. It's just Greece is taking the spotlight at the moment.

 

[B_Nick4444]

interesting set of questions

although current thinking holds: the Euro to a weaker future; the US dollar stronger than it has been; and the Union's economic problems run deeper than Greece. The situation may reverse again to what it was a few months ago

would be interesting to watch the development

 

[B_nyvin]

interesting set of questions

although current thinking holds: the Euro to a weaker future; the US dollar stronger than it has been; and the Union's economic problems run deeper than Greece. The situation may reverse again to what it was a few months ago

would be interesting to watch the development

Are you suggesting that the dollar is looking good in the longterm? If you are that's quite laughable.

 

[B_Nick4444]

this typifies most of what has been coming across my desk for a while now:



Unless some kind of international pain-sharing arrangement is reached, the EU appears currently unable to solve its own problems and is on a collision course with a wave of sovereign defaults starting in a few months, when Greece must sell about €30 bln in bonds just to pay off old maturing bonds.
Greece (and the rest of the PIIGS block) looks to the EU, and the EU looks to the world, with the same threat. Help us or we all go down as part of a global credit seizure and market crash.
Any such solution will be complex and take time to assemble. So barring an unqualified guarantee of an international coalition of adequate financial strength to be credible, expect more strength in the USD and other safe haven assets.

U.S. Dollar Weekly Outlook: Bullish While EU Risk Persists -- Seeking Alpha

 

[tripod]

Iran has been begging for an ass whooping for years now. I have been giving them the undeserved benefit of the doubt for too long and anyone that doesn't see that we have no choice but to act militarily is just thinking wishfully.

Of course, the invasion of Iraq had little to do with Saddam and the Euro and a strike on Iran will have little to do with their relationship with the Euro as weel. It will just be another coincidence.

Flashy is right, we have no choice and we absolutely CAN NOT ALLOW IRAN to get a nuclear bomb. The Republican guard will have to be taken out. Hell, how are decent Iranians gonna take their country back without having the Republican guard immobilized?

The absolute last thing that this country needs now is to strike Iran pre-emptively... but we just have no choice.

Trading oil in Euros is just what a country does when they know that the U.S. has made up their mind about military action, and if one has been listening to Hilary lately, the writing is on the wall.

Unlike the Iraq invasion (which I was strongly against), I will be eating popcorn and watching the bombing on MSNBC.

 

[B_nyvin]

Trading oil in Euros is just what a country does when they know that the U.S. has made up their mind about military action, and if one has been listening to Hilary lately, the writing is on the wall.
.

Iraq was trading in Euros all the way back to 2000, well before the 2003 invasion and even before 9/11. To say that the trading in Euros played no part in the USA's determination to invade (and Russian/French opposition) is rather ignorant of the situation. In fact Cheney's famous speech about Iraq NOT having any WMD's was made in 1997, only three years before Iraq started trading oil in Euros.

Also Russia is currently considering trading oil in Euros...are we thinking about invading Russia too? lol.

Not to mention all out war with Iran is just totally impractical. It's a nation of 74 million the size of Mexico, it has a government WAY above anything Saddam had. Not to mention the US still being involved in two different wars on both ends of their border, and let's not forget the strait of hormuz in an economic crisis.....

 

[Drifterwood]

A politically united Europe would be by far the biggest economy in the world. It would make sense for her currency to be the major world currency and therefore the haven for nervy investors and market terrorists.

Imagine where you would be after the last couple of years in the US$ had not been the safe haven for such people. The effects of the Euro taking over from the Dollar would be enormous and profound.

Whether you should be waging political, economic and military warfare over this possibility is a big question and what I think the OP is getting at.

I am in favour of Europe becoming a World Super Power. I have said it many times.

 

[D_Fiona_Farvel]

and are you suggesting that the Iranian Military have "no fear of death"? I would suggest you speak to many of the Iranian troops who fought during the Iran-Iraq War.

Interesting. Enlighten me as to what these veterans of the IR-IQ war would say?

Unlike the Iraq invasion (which I was strongly against), I will be eating popcorn and watching the bombing on MSNBC.

In an armchair no doubt. Passive observer - I guess that's the new American way.

 

[D_Fiona_Farvel]

I am in favour of Europe becoming a World Super Power. I have said it many times.

I like Zakaria's idea of there being no one superpower, but a group of nations coming to the fore and having a somewhat equitable voice in international affairs. But that may be unrealistic.

My boyfriend and I were discussing the likelihood the United States would enter another civil war or have some other societal breakdown in the next 20-30 years, and I think it likely the U.S. will have too many internal issues to maintain any form of superpower status in that period. Someone will have to take over and Europe seems as good a bet as China.

There was a great debate about this last year, I think on Frost Over the World, but I can't find a link.

 

[B_starinvestor]

Unlike the Iraq invasion (which I was strongly against), I will be eating popcorn and watching the bombing on MSNBC.

That is fucking hilarious.:biggrin1: