Is war inevitable between Iran and Israel?

Discussion in 'Et Cetera, Et Cetera' started by Wyldgusechaz, May 29, 2008.

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  1. Wyldgusechaz

    Wyldgusechaz New Member

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    The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Iran is still trying to test what amounts to a nuclear bomb triggering device. (BTW there is a terrific article by and Iranian about why its impossible to negotiate with Iran.)

    Iran has been smart. If reports are true (and based on the WMD reports who knows) Iran has decentralized their bomb making facilities so that a one time surgical strike will not take out all Iran's atomic weapons abilities like Israel did to Iraq.

    Israel cannot let Iran go nuclear, period. One small atom bomb and Israel is gone. If the mullahs or Ahdiemijad (sp?) got the bomb and found a way to deliver it to Tel Aviv, they would been seen as true Islamic heros to Islamic radicals world wide in ridding the Mid East of the Zionists. Israel will have to preemptively hit Iran in several spots to be sure of ridding that country of its nuclear ability. I am sure as we speak the Mossad has spies in Iran and the Israeli defense team is planning for the worst.

    Barack Obama feels he can negotiate with Iran, but the article cited above tells why it is futile to negotiate with a revolutionary state, not a nation state. A nation state wants secure borders, access to resources and a safe place for its citizens. A revolutionary state wants to spread its ideas, all else be damned. Nazi Germany was a revolutionary state. Venezuela is a revolutionary state. Brazil for example is a nation state as is most of the world.

    Negotiating is not in the interest of a rev state because that would mean their ideology would be curbed from spreading. Funny thing is, I have many Persian friends and they like the West and say that many in Iran are westernized. The Mullahs just have them by the throat. However when Israel drops the first bomb, you can bet they will get Islamic in a hurry.
     
  2. Freddie53

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    We are damned if we do and damned if we don't in reference to Iran. All the news from Bush and Company made most of us believe that Saddam was about to blow us all off the map.

    Now we read that it has media hype orchestrated by Bush himself and all the government officials under him. How do we know that we aren't being duped this time?

    Damned if we don't. Let's assume it is just hype and two years from now Iran is busy blowing up Israel and any other enemy in the area.

    Damned if we do and get into Iraq and stil in Iran for a "100 years." We findi out that the reports were exageratted to help sway Americans and Israelis to the do a preemptively strike against Iran only to find out Iran has no nuclear weapons at all, just like Iraq.

    Again Damned if We Do and Damned if Wen

    If we only knew what the Iran'sreal agenda beyond a showdow of ais for Iran and what there real military capability is all that we have feared it might be.
     
  3. tripod

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    The term revolutionary state is a newly coined phrase that was invented by the neo-conservatives to further their militaristic agenda. Go ahead and look up revolutionary state and all that you will find is stuff by conservatives... the term comes from the American Enterprise Institute.

    The only thing that Venezuela and Iran have in common is that they both have oil, have had to weather United States sponsored coups to topple their leaders who were elected by the people over the years and have adopted anti-American government stances in their foreign policy.

    Iran had a revolution that ousted the Shah of Iran that was installed after the United States waged a successful coup attempt against their president Mossadeqh who was elected democratically by the people. Mossadeqh was Time magazine's man of the year in 1951... by 1953 we had already removed him from power.

    We overthrew their government with the help of our partners in crime the Brits largely through bribing Iranian officials, army generals and members of the Iranian media. We had a severe problem with democratically elected leaders in oil rich countries... WE ALWAYS HAVE. Democratically elected leaders in oil rich countries usually do the will of the people and return the oil wealth to the population and tell the oil companies to start packing because they are no longer needed... they can stay of course, but they will have to buy the oil from the government and can't pump it for very little money anymore.

    Now, Iran doesn't have a democratically elected government, it has the same government that was installed after the revolution of 1979. So, that is where you are getting confused. Iran doesn't want to export it's beliefs and power all over the world in a Shiite Empire... if you think that they do, you have been buying what the neo-conservatives have been selling you.

    If, in the United States, we had China come in and start throwing money around to start an overthrowing of this country through a coup de etat, would you fight them and do everything in your power to overthrow the puppet government that they installed? Or would you work with the Chinese putting friends and family in jail because you believe in hedgemony?

    Iran had every right to start a revolution and throw out the despotic Shah and his government.

    Can't you see that we started this shit with Iran?

    Israel has NO right to start a war with Iran, it would be illegal, just like their secret nuclear program, the recent bombing of Syria, and their participation in the longest military occupation in modern history.

    Israel is in the wrong on this one.
     
  4. B_Monster

    B_Monster New Member

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    I know there are other reason's for war but, as long as there is religion there will be war.
     
  5. Flashy

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    well, the problem is, that Iran is indeed foolish enough (or crazy enough) to destroy themselves in order to destroy Israel.

    If they were to detonate a nuclear bomb in Tel Aviv, within a couple of hours, there would not be a city left in Iran. The IDF nuclear triad, via IAF jets, IAF Jericho missiles and Sub Launched missiles, would be unleashed in full against Iranian cities.
     
  6. Flashy

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    gotta disagree with you there tripod my friend.

    Iran has been conducting a proxy war against Israel for nearly 28 years through the funding of outside terror groups, such as Hizbullah. It has stated its clear desire to wipe Israel off the face of the earth in recent times.

    Israel has every right to defend itself.

    Irrespective of the situation in the occupied territories, which has nothing to do with Iran, Iran has no business threatening Israel or conducting proxy wars against it.
     
  7. tripod

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    You do know that Iran hasn't made a military offense in over 300 years right? The Iranian government might be full of extremists, but they are very intelligent people and would have nothing to gain from a military strike against Israel.

    How would they nuke Israel anyway? They don't have any nuclear weapons. Everyone is freaking about their enrichment of their spent rods in their nuclear energy program. Any serious civil nuclear energy program enriches uranium, and Iran should have that right. Israel and the United States contend that Iran can't be allowed to enrich uranium, because that could lead to a first class nuclear weapons program. It also could lead to a thriving nuclear energy program, which Iran has the absolute right to develop.

    What it would really lead to is depleted Uranium that could be used in armor penetrating weapons that would thwart any attempts by either the United States or Israel to perform a successful invasion, planes and helicopters could be easily shot destroyed and our armored battalions would be vulnerable.

    I say, that's life in the big world.

    Really? I was always under the impression that militarized Hezbollah was a result of Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, you do remember that Israel occupied southern Lebanon and besieged Beirut right? Hezbollah was created to expel Israel from Lebanon.

    Is that a proxy war? Hezbollah now holds seats in the Lebanese government and has social services for the poor.

    Their stance on Israel is harsh and they have committed a lot of violence, but it has been peanuts compared to the harsh retaliations Israel did to Hezbollah by their U.S. tax dollar funded military. Those rockets that they fire are pathetic and don't do much damage to Israel.

    Hezbollah is anti-zionist, not anti-jewish. They are mainly compromised of un-educated people who cling to some ridiculous anti-semiticism though and have used anti-semetic rhetoric frequently.

    Israel has a problem because they displaced too many people from their homes and have been ruling the region with an iron fist. They are the absolutely most militant country in the world with 100% conscription.

    They are the ones scaring the shit out of Iran.
     
    #7 tripod, May 29, 2008
    Last edited: May 29, 2008
  8. Wyldgusechaz

    Wyldgusechaz New Member

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    Thats just it. Israel CAN'T have a nuke land in Tel Aviv. They need to act preemptively. There is no where else for Jews to go. This is their last little corner of the earth. If Iran gets even close to going atomic, Israel has to take them out. I see no other course.
     
  9. Flashy

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    1. If they were that intelligent, they would realize that a modern, free, nation state, at peace with all their neighbors is the ideal, not a council controlled by religious fanatics and a military arm (IRG) dedicated to iron revolutionary control of an entire populus.

    2. Just because they have not made a military offensive, is much different then the fact that they have been conducting clandestine warfare.

    Also, I would hardly call the spat between Iran and Iraq for nearly a decade non-offensive. While the Iraqis started it, there were many border disputes and attempts by Iran to foment a revolution among Iraqi shi'ites. Not to mention, after the initial stages of the war, the Iranians were on the offensive for the better part of 6 years of the conflict, when they could have made peace.

    3. What they would gain is the destruction of the Zionist enemy who they have an irrational hatred of. Even if it meant their own deaths. Outnumbering the Israels nearly 15 to 1, they might take their chances. They don't care about their citizens anyway, so all that would matter was that they protected the revolutionary ideals, the Revolutionary Guard corps and other loyal factions.

    4. They clearly are not developing their nuclear program for civilian purposes....certainly not when developing long range missiles at the same time, and decentralizing all their operations to protect against attack, and not accepting help and assistance from other nations for a peaceful energy program that has been offered many times in exchange for the cessation of uranium enrichment.

    5. Depleted uranium really would have nothing to do with war with ISrael or the U.S.

    Firstly, the U.S. does not need to invade Iran. Neither does Israel. Depleted Uranium does not help stop a U.S. Attack, which would be primarily cruise missiles and bombers.

    iran does not have the military capability to stand up against an invasion by the U.S.

    its air force is poorly trained and decrepit, as is its army and navy.

    Any attack by the U.S. would be planned not on invasion but by massive aerial bombardment.

    The only ground attack that might occur would be a move into Western Iran to neutralize any possible moves towards the Iraqi border by the IRG.

    Iran has no modern tanks, no modern helicopters, few modern fighters, etc. the only well-equipped troops are the IRG troops, and even they are not effective compared to any U.S. ground force they would face.
     
  10. Flashy

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    I couldn't agree more.

    I am strongly pro-Israel.

    I am simply stating what would happen if the scenario that tel aviv was bombed played out.

    Frankly, I would much rather our American Military took out the Iranians, as we are the only ones who can at this point.
     
  11. dong20

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    Well, the doctrine of shock and awe sounds wonderful in theory. Now, look at the history of conflicts in this region (and others) based on such a rationale and see how much it counts for once the razzmatazz fades.

    A significant military action involving Iran, Israel and/or the US would surely have repercussions so catastrophic - nationally, regionally and globally as to render such 'top trumps' thinking so entirely irrelevant (we all know who has the biggest guns), I'm surprised anyone would posit such an argument other than as a joke.

    Next>>
     
  12. lucky8

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    so true...on a large scale, religion probably causes more harm than good nowadays. it will cause the destruction of humanity as soon as technology becomes more available worldwide
     
  13. tripod

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    That is your problem, it colors every thought that you have on the situation. But, I support your support of Israel. Because when it comes down to it, Iran is a fucked up place and I don't wanna go anywhere near Islamic fundamentalism... I wouldn't even think of visiting Iran, but I could fly to Israel and have a great time with no fear of being kidnapped or what not. Women have SHIT rights in Iran and women have every right under the sun in Israel. When it comes down to it, I will side with Israel on just about anything.

    I just happen to believe that Iran has a right to a civil nuclear program. I also think that Israel should unveil their secret nuclear weapons program to the world and stop hiding it like a criminal would.

    But I don't want them to have a nuclear bomb at this stage in their countries development. Although the U.S. and England have a LOT to do with the present state of their political idealogy that would cause everyone to be frightened as to what they would do with a nuclear weapon (it is possible that it could lead to bargaining and diplomacy and never end in a strike).

    I just don't think that the answer is bombs and missiles (nobody wants to invade Iran with boots on the ground because they are about three times as tough as Iraq and would wage a guerilla war against the occupying army to the likes that the world has NEVER even seen.)

    The answer is in diplomacy (I think... I could very well be wrong) but that is just my opinion and I have no real personal knowledge of the situation.
     
  14. dreamer20

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    Tripod has already stated why Iran would not blow up Israel. That is just scaremongering by the G.O.P.
    Do not forget that through diplomatic negotiation with Israel peace came about with Egypt and Jordan. And that Condoleezza Rice stated that the U.S.A. is committed to taking a diplomatic course with the government of Iran long before the G.O.P.'s current criticism of Senator Obama for saying that he would also consider diplomacy. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

    Rice: U.S. Committed to Diplomacy With Iran - washingtonpost.com


    BTW Jews and Muslims share a common faith and have sacred holy sites in Israel which they would be loathe to destroy. People of both faiths live in Israel, Iran and many other parts of the world. Hence if some cosmic event were to destroy Israel the world's other Muslims and Jews would still exist.
     
  15. Flashy

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    Excuse me, where did i say ISrael would be involved overtly with the U.S. ?

    I never did.

    there is a very subtle difference between invasion and bombardment.

    Thge bombardment of Iraq went like clockwork, the invasion and occupation did not.

    I am surprised someone would posit such an absurd parallel between aerial bombardment and invasion, which are two very different military actions.

    THe "doctrine" of shock and awe happened to have worked briliantly. Iraq's weak military was defeated in a matter of days. What has happened since is insurgency, not at all part of "shock and awe"

    The fact is, some things need to be done, and considering only one country has the arsenal to do it, we all know it falls to the USA. The european countries may whine and complain overtly, but in private, they will be thanking their lucky stars that a radical islamist regime will not have nuclear weapons, to put on to cruise missiles which will eventually have the range to put all of europe within reach.

    Doesn't change the fact that if Iran really wanted a peaceful energy program they would be happily only trying to enrich uranium to 5%...not to weapons grade near 100% enriched.
     
  16. Flashy

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    1. I agree, they should have a peaceful nuclear program...if that was their aim...but it isn't. Uranium only needs to be enriched to 5% for a civilian energy program...they are attempting to enrich to 100% which is weapons grade. They should have it if they would agree to world monitoring of that peaceful program, which they won't. So it is a pretty strong bet that they have no intention of using it for only peaceful purposes.

    2. The Israelis are not hiding it. Everyone knows it exists. Dimona is visible to everyone. The Israeli jericho missile bases are visible to all. The ISraeli Air Force special air wings which carry the air part of the triad are known to all at the air base they operate from. So are the tactical artillery shells and ditches where nukes will be buried on the Golan, so are the sub launched missiles.

    The Israeli policy is one of clear nuclear ambiguity, which is used so that enemies do not know what Israel's nuclear doctrine is, thus making a possible attack of any sort on Israel extremely dangerous in terms of possible consequences. The "Samson Option", is a pretty clear doctrine of what Israel's intentions are with regards to its enemies should any of them attempt the utter destruction of Israel...i.e., if ISrael disappears off the face of the earth, its enemies are going with it.

    3. Normally I would agree on diplomacy...but diplomacy and fanaticism don't mix...and we still would not need to occupy or invade Iran...we could paralyze the entire country relatively quickly, and neutralize the military and other targets relatively quickly, as well as wiping out the IRG relatively quickly.
     
  17. tripod

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    Wouldn't that polarize almost every Iranian against the U.S. and Israel? Everytime we rattle our sabres... the moderates in Iran lose elections and grow more fearful of being thrown in jail and or exiled.

    There is a HUGE blowback to be associated with one of those blitzkrieg style bombardments by the West.

    I too, was disheartened when the Iranians declined to allow Russia to enrich their uranium for them... they are just too proud of a people to do such a pansy ass thing though, even though it might save them from destruction. Pride could very well get them destroyed and there would be nothing that their pro-Iranian supporters in the U.S. could do if Israel or the U.S. decided to wage a quick but lethal bombardment against select targets.

    Iran is fucked, I wish they would get their head out of their own ass long enough to realize that they have the power to end this ominous march to war with a few simple gestures. :(
     
  18. B_New End

    B_New End New Member

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    Do you truly believe Iran would risk nuclear annihilation just to nuke Israel?

    Nukes are political bargaining chips, and they guarantee less invasions once obtained.

    (no country with Nuclear Weapons has ever been invaded)


    And Iran was backing the anti-Taleban Northern Alliance, before 9-11, and gave incredible support to the US after 9-11, to help defeat both the Taleban and Al-Queada (a SUNNI terrorist organization) and thought after 9-11, there would be a new era of diplomacy with the U.S.

    at the same time, the student movement was rising, and Iran was liberalizing.

    then dumb-fuck gave his axis of evil speech, and all that disappeared almost over night.
     
    #18 B_New End, May 29, 2008
    Last edited: May 29, 2008
  19. mista geechee

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    whatever happens, the US needs to stay out of it. we need to get our own shit straight first
     
  20. Jason

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    With every right come responsibilities. The responsibilities that go alongside this right include convincing the world that you are not demanding a right to a civil nuclear programme with the primary objective of developing a nuclear weapon to use against Israel and create a fundamentalist Islamic world.

    It is not certain that Iran intends to develop a nuclear technology to destroy Israel. Indeed the lesson of the WMD which we now know didn't exist in Iraq must make us all cautious. But there is a significant possibility, perhaps a probability ,that this is the intent.

    Iran has lost this right to nuclear power because it does not accept its responsibilities, and this is something which needs to be stressed - they do not now have any right to nuclear power. What the civilised world should do about this is another matter. At this moment presumably Iran does not have a nuclear bomb, so we do have some time, and that has to be the hope for the world. A pre-emptive attack on Iran - by Israel, the USA, or anyone else - would be a catastrophe and would stoke the flames of fundamentalism. An attack by Iran on Israel, assuming they do get a bomb, would also be a catastrophe, not only for Israel, but for Iran. The unstable regime in Iran may be willing to consider the destruction of their country mere collateral damage in what they see as a divine mission, but it would be so sad to see a whole nation suffer because of the un-Islamic perversion of Islam espoused by their cranky leaders.
     
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