Latest Gallup Poll - 39% approval for Obama

D_Miranda_Wrights

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VinylBoy et al.,

Sorry -- Probably overprecise, but I'm confused about what inferences people are drawing based on the posters' histories here, so it's the only way I can be clear.

I'm going to back up here because I don't think we actually disagree. I'm going to explain why I posted what I did, and then state what I'm intending to say. I just came into this thread and read the dude's original post (I don't know the backstory here) and then this, from VinylBoy:

He can be at 29% right now... but unless someone provides another real alternative he's still getting the votes of many, MANY people. You may want to focus on finding someone who can beat Obama and actually has a real plan for the economy & job creation, instead of constantly talking about how much you dislike him. Because we all know hate is in this season, and there's enough of it to go around on LPSG.

This was kind of a vague post -- I'm not sure if you mean to say Obama's approval ratings will approval as people make the comparison (maybe); or the other candidates' approval ratings will be worse than -18% (probably not); or that referenda elections tend to fail unless a strong alternative is presented (I disagree.) So, I just stated that there's a poor track record for winning re-election with under 40%. You guys then noted that approval ratings change over time, which is true, but doesn't conflict with anyone's post. You also note that Generic Republican tends to do better than most actual Republicans -- true throughout history, true this year, and immaterial to my point about anemic approval ratings resulting in incumbents losing because of referendum elections.

I don't think we're having a substantive disagreement, but I'll lay my cards out on the table:

1. Opponent approval rating does matter. If you look at the Nevada exit polls, the election became a referendum on both Reid and Angle, because both were unusually unpopular candidates.

2. HOWEVER, Reid benefited from netting the majority of ambivalent voters. Reid's approval rating was about 45% and not <40%, and Reid was going against an unusually unpopular opponent. I think, structurally, the national primary system encourages more electable candidates than a one-day state primary like Angle won.

3. As is obvious from the last two notes, there are lots of complex variables going on here, time being the biggest one. Obama is hardly hopeless. If his approval rating is <40% on Election Night, chances are he'll be screwed.

4. I agree with you about "Generic x" on average outpolling actual candidates; there being lots of time left; and weak (but not non-existent) correlation between approval ratings at this stage and election night.

5. If you're arguing that current approval ratings are a weak predictive mechanism of final results, you should do a statistical analysis instead of finding a few results to cherry-pick. That's like finding five methodologically perfect polls outside the MoE and then arguing that polling is an intrinsically poor predictive mechanism. But if you're trying to suggest it's a weak correlation, you're probably right, although your data are inadequate.

phew -- hope that brings us to the same page.
 
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Thedrewbert

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Right now, the only Republican candidate for President that beats Obama in the polls is "Generic Republican".

So far, he hasn't announced that he is running.
 

B_VinylBoy

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This was kind of a vague post -- I'm not sure if you mean to say Obama's approval ratings will approval as people make the comparison (maybe); or the other candidates' approval ratings will be worse than -18% (probably not); or that referenda elections tend to fail unless a strong alternative is presented (I disagree.) So, I just stated that there's a poor track record for winning re-election with under 40%.

That's true, however, I'm also going by the OP's presumptions and not just yours. I'm trying to put everything here in perspective.

You guys then noted that approval ratings change over time, which is true, but doesn't conflict with anyone's post. You also note that Generic Republican tends to do better than most actual Republicans -- true throughout history, true this year, and immaterial to my point about anemic approval ratings resulting in incumbents losing because of referendum elections.

Again, not just viewing this thread based on your responses.

1. Opponent approval rating does matter. If you look at the Nevada exit polls, the election became a referendum on both Reid and Angle, because both were unusually unpopular candidates.

2. HOWEVER, Reid benefited from netting the majority of ambivalent voters. Reid's approval rating was about 45% and not <40%, and Reid was going against an unusually unpopular opponent. I think, structurally, the national primary system encourages more electable candidates than a one-day state primary like Angle won.

I don't see it that way. Ultimately, even if both candidates were unpopular, voters in Nevada still had a choice and made it. Those who were truly not impressed with either Reid or Angle voted third party or didn't vote at all. The rest chose who they thought were the better of the two frontrunners, and somebody won. Politically & statistically, Reid shouldn't have won re-election. But Angle turned out to be so much worse of a candidate that she lost in a state that even most Democrats presumed should have "turned red" in 2010.

And yes, even if may not have been during the 2010 election, Harry Reid's approval rating in some polls was considerably less than 40%.

3. As is obvious from the last two notes, there are lots of complex variables going on here, time being the biggest one. Obama is hardly hopeless. If his approval rating is <40% on Election Night, chances are he'll be screwed.

Perhaps... but if the GOP candidate is worse, then the approval rating of the incumbent isn't going to play as much of a factor. Reid/Angle once again reflects this.

5. If you're arguing that current approval ratings are a weak predictive mechanism of final results, you should do a statistical analysis instead of finding a few results to cherry-pick. That's like finding five methodologically perfect polls outside the MoE and then arguing that polling is an intrinsically poor predictive mechanism. But if you're trying to suggest it's a weak correlation, you're probably right, although your data are inadequate.

I could produce a lot more instances, but I figured all I needed to do was list three recent ones in hopes to properly convey what I was trying to say. We only can post 10,000 words per post, ya know! :wink:

phew -- hope that brings us to the same page.

Like you said, we're kinda agreeing more than disagreeing here.
 

houtx48

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Other than Obama needs to get rid of Gietners, he is slogging though the mess he inherited. It took Clinton three years to start to clean up the mess of the first one and it was not near the shambles of the second one. Looking at the field of Republicans can't say there is one of them that is better than what's there why change horses in the middle of the stream?
 

D_Miranda_Wrights

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I think we're only out of harmony on two things:

I don't see it that way. Ultimately, even if both candidates were unpopular, voters in Nevada still had a choice and made it. Those who were truly not impressed with either Reid or Angle voted third party or didn't vote at all. The rest chose who they thought were the better of the two frontrunners, and somebody won.

I disagree. Look at the exit poll in Nevada. Only 37% of voters indicated they "Strongly Favored" their choice; the other 63% either had reservations or were voting against the opponent. Indeed, the race had as many people indicating they were voting against the opposition than for their candidate -- something that doesn't generally happen when an unpopular incumbent gets routed. (Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas lost by __ points and the voters still were twice as more likely to be voting for her than against.)

I could produce a lot more instances, but I figured all I needed to do was list three recent ones in hopes to properly convey what I was trying to say. We only can post 10,000 words per post, ya know! :wink:

Haha. I'd still prefer an analysis of what the correlation is -- I think it says a lot more than the exceptions, unless the person is claiming approval rating over a year before the election is destiny.
 
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Right now, the only Republican candidate for President that beats Obama in the polls is "Generic Republican".

So far, he hasn't announced that he is running.

They're all 'plug compatible'. By the time they've completed their purity tests and their pledges what you're left with is nothing more than a spokesmodel. One could 'hope' voters understand what they're getting when they vote for a spokemodel whose opinions and independent thoughts have been obliterated in order to pass the 'entrance exam' for candidacy but I've no confidence at all for your typical voter to understand that.
 

Horrible

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Right now, the only Republican candidate for President that beats Obama in the polls is "Generic Republican".

So far, he hasn't announced that he is running.

Doesnt if just break your poor little democratic heart to know that A GENERIC INDIVIDUAL REPUBLICAN is beating out your particular pony? I mean, I would be pissed if I were a staunch BHO supporter and polls were showing him to be regarded as such a failure that any generic opposite would theoretically win by a landslide against him.

Btw, obamas approval index is a -23 today. Per Rasmussen.
 

B_VinylBoy

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Doesnt if just break your poor little democratic heart to know that A GENERIC INDIVIDUAL REPUBLICAN is beating out your particular pony?

No... it actually tells us that currently there's no physical human being at this point from the Conservative camp that can poll better than Obama in an actual one-on-one. It's a major tell as to how angry, yet completely indecisive and disconnected they are from the process. They want "anyone but Obama", but don't know who. That's really pathetic considering all the "stellar" choices available (and I say that with a smirk, a slap on my thigh and a giggle). Staunch Conservatives would have this belief about any non-Republican in office. Doesn't matter if it was Obama, Clinton, Carter or any other past or future Democrat.

I mean, I would be pissed if I were a staunch BHO supporter and polls were showing him to be regarded as such a failure that any generic opposite would theoretically win by a landslide against him.

But that's you... who thinks seeing a poll result where a man or woman who doesn't exist doing better than the President means something. Do you believe in ghosts too? :rolleyes:

Btw, obamas approval index is a -23 today. Per Rasmussen.

And? Conservatives STILL don't have a man or woman that can beat Obama. You may want to get busy on that, instead of taking pop shots at Obama supporters for no reason beyond stroking your own politically slanted psyche.
 
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Thedrewbert

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Doesnt if just break your poor little democratic heart to know that A GENERIC INDIVIDUAL REPUBLICAN is beating out your particular pony? I mean, I would be pissed if I were a staunch BHO supporter and polls were showing him to be regarded as such a failure that any generic opposite would theoretically win by a landslide against him.

Btw, obamas approval index is a -23 today. Per Rasmussen.


Not really... "Generic Republican" would never make it past the Primaries nor the Teaparty.... so he has no chance of being the nominee.

All of the current candidates, plus the ones rumored to be running soon, have negatives FAR too high.

And I can be upset with Obama (and I am) and still vote for him. I may not like a few of the things he has done on a policy level, but as far as competence, he still trumps any current Republican candidate.
 

Thedrewbert

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So about that Republican front runner:

n an average of eight national polls conducted since July 1, Mr. Perry trails Mr. Obama by an average of 11 percentage points ... Over all, Mr. Perry has won his three elected terms with an average victory margin of 13 percentage points. That&#8217;s certainly not a disaster, but it lags the 19-point margin for other Texas Republicans running in those years.
In the most recent two elections, Mr. Perry was losing quite a few voters who were voting for Republican for almost every other office.
 

hot-rod

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Is anyone shocked that it's the usual haters who make these threads?
Seriously, what is the point? We know the OP hates Obama. Is the fact that he's now down to 39% on a Gallup poll supposed to validate your own beliefs & prejudices, therefore making what you believe more factual with others who disagree? How foolish. Because let's be clear... whether or not someone "approves" of another's actions differs from person to person, and you just need to come to grips with the fact that some people are going to be supportive of others you personally don't like.

He can be at 29% right now... but unless someone provides another real alternative he's still getting the votes of many, MANY people. You may want to focus on finding someone who can beat Obama and actually has a real plan for the economy & job creation, instead of constantly talking about how much you dislike him. Because we all know hate is in this season, and there's enough of it to go around on LPSG.
Right on! My feelings, exactly!