Let's see if we can have a friendly, rationale discussion on north korea

Fred90

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I'll read all responses.

The problem with North Korea is its nuclear arsenal. Right? So here is how I would handle it if I were the POTUS.

First off, I disagree with Trump's approach. Trump threatened to bomb North Korea and I think that's a bluff and I think everyone knows it's a bluff. For reasons I won't bother to go into, a conventional war on the Korean peninsula is almost unthinkable.

The solution lies with China. China acquiesced to North Korea going nuclear and quite probably even encouraged it. The pressure needs to be put on China to get THEM to make North Korea disarm.

We need to get with Japan and South Korea and to meet, privately, with the Chinese. We tell them that, unless North Korea disarms and we can verify that North Korea is disarmed, Japan and South Korea will begin building their own nuclear arsenals. Additionally, privately, we will inform China that, in the event North Korea uses a nuclear device or any other WMD, it will be viewed as an attack by China and it will require a similar response against China.

In other words, if China wants to put the fate of Beijing in the hands of Kim Jung-un, then so be it. Of course, I don't believe they are willing to permit such a thing. The Chinese would be petrified at the thought of Japan and South Korea building a nuclear weapons capability. Ultimately, they would, I believe, make sure that North Korea disarmed.

Of course, there is the matter of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty that would need to be addressed. But that can be resolved.

Your thoughts?
 

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I don't pretend to have a clear-cut solution, but I'd want to move in the direction of normalizing relations, rather than a nuclear proliferation game of chicken.

To that extent, I support Trump opening a dialogue with North Korea, but I think he was naive in his lavish promises beforehand and his claims of success afterwards--not to mention his handling of the negotiations themselves.
 

keenobserver

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I'll read all responses.

The problem with North Korea is its nuclear arsenal. Right? So here is how I would handle it if I were the POTUS.

First off, I disagree with Trump's approach. Trump threatened to bomb North Korea and I think that's a bluff and I think everyone knows it's a bluff. For reasons I won't bother to go into, a conventional war on the Korean peninsula is almost unthinkable.

The solution lies with China. China acquiesced to North Korea going nuclear and quite probably even encouraged it. The pressure needs to be put on China to get THEM to make North Korea disarm.

We need to get with Japan and South Korea and to meet, privately, with the Chinese. We tell them that, unless North Korea disarms and we can verify that North Korea is disarmed, Japan and South Korea will begin building their own nuclear arsenals. Additionally, privately, we will inform China that, in the event North Korea uses a nuclear device or any other WMD, it will be viewed as an attack by China and it will require a similar response against China.

In other words, if China wants to put the fate of Beijing in the hands of Kim Jung-un, then so be it. Of course, I don't believe they are willing to permit such a thing. The Chinese would be petrified at the thought of Japan and South Korea building a nuclear weapons capability. Ultimately, they would, I believe, make sure that North Korea disarmed.

Of course, there is the matter of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty that would need to be addressed. But that can be resolved.

Your thoughts?

You make some really good points, you really do. Speaking to the issues you raised, China has always controlled NK to a point. As we see with Trump there are often limits on what you can do with crazy. In my opinion Trump has strengthened NK by talking about leaving Korea and breaking up NATO. He is so desperate to win a Nobel prize he is willing to take Kim's word for it that Kim is cutting his arsenal. In the meantime, since Kim got Trump to meet and talk to him, his power is greatly enhanced. Trump validated the whole "I'm crazy enough to destroy everyone" idea that got him the platform he wanted / needed to stay in power.

China knows what it is dealing with, but like Trump's best friend and pee tape buddy, Putin benefits bigly if the US is a) in chaos, and b) is made to look weak on the international stage. Trump has helped them enormously. Hugely, bigly.

You're also right about how China would react to Japan and SK adding nukes to their arsenals so that is a little limiting. Given Trump's reluctance to defend out allies China and NK are again made stronger. This is what happens when you vote for an isolationist like Trump. They fail to see the value of preventing war, especially when there is profit to be made by having one.

The other thing I would comment on is do not underestimate Trump's ability to do something to trigger a shooting war with anyone. As the Mueller investigation wraps and Cohen testifies openly before Congress the pressure is going to build. I think Trump would be fine leaving after one term, but he wants to go on his terms, not convicted of "high crimes" which he actually could be. There are some subtle cracks in the Red Republican wall of support, and they will break open with hard evidence. THAT is when the crazy shit will really start to happen.

You don't like to hear it but Obama's approach, which was pretty much US policy for decades was probably safer than the box that Trump opened. Trump could have been way more effective with NK, but he lacks the willingness to learn the policy nuances and to follow through. It is more complicated than a fucking wall. Consequently he has made the situation much worse.
 

Fred90

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I don't pretend to have a clear-cut solution, but I'd want to move in the direction of normalizing relations, rather than a nuclear proliferation game of chicken.

To that extent, I support Trump opening a dialogue with North Korea, but I think he was naive in his lavish promises beforehand
I don't pretend to have a clear-cut solution, but I'd want to move in the direction of normalizing relations, rather than a nuclear proliferation game of chicken.

To that extent, I support Trump opening a dialogue with North Korea, but I think he was naive in his lavish promises beforehand and his claims of success afterwards--not to mention his handling of the negotiations themselves.

One of these days I'm going to figure how to multi-qoute. Lol.

Anyway, yes, I disagree with most of the statements that Trump has made on the topic. Like I said, I don't agree with his approach. I don't believe his approach will be successful.
 

Fred90

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You make some really good points, you really do. Speaking to the issues you raised, China has always controlled NK to a point. As we see with Trump there are often limits on what you can do with crazy. In my opinion Trump has strengthened NK by talking about leaving Korea and breaking up NATO. He is so desperate to win a Nobel prize he is willing to take Kim's word for it that Kim is cutting his arsenal. In the meantime, since Kim got Trump to meet and talk to him, his power is greatly enhanced. Trump validated the whole "I'm crazy enough to destroy everyone" idea that got him the platform he wanted / needed to stay in power.

China knows what it is dealing with, but like Trump's best friend and pee tape buddy, Putin benefits bigly if the US is a) in chaos, and b) is made to look weak on the international stage. Trump has helped them enormously. Hugely, bigly.

You're also right about how China would react to Japan and SK adding nukes to their arsenals so that is a little limiting. Given Trump's reluctance to defend out allies China and NK are again made stronger. This is what happens when you vote for an isolationist like Trump. They fail to see the value of preventing war, especially when there is profit to be made by having one.

The other thing I would comment on is do not underestimate Trump's ability to do something to trigger a shooting war with anyone. As the Mueller investigation wraps and Cohen testifies openly before Congress the pressure is going to build. I think Trump would be fine leaving after one term, but he wants to go on his terms, not convicted of "high crimes" which he actually could be. There are some subtle cracks in the Red Republican wall of support, and they will break open with hard evidence. THAT is when the crazy shit will really start to happen.

You don't like to hear it but Obama's approach, which was pretty much US policy for decades was probably safer than the box that Trump opened. Trump could have been way more effective with NK, but he lacks the willingness to learn the policy nuances and to follow through. It is more complicated than a fucking wall. Consequently he has made the situation much worse.

Thanks. I agree with much of what you say. I'll elaborate more later.
 
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Klingsor

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I don't see why the DPRK should be expected to disarm.

I may feel they *should* disarm, given who they are, but I don't think they're going to. I suspect any lasting accord will have to deal with that reality. All the more reason to bring North Korea into the international community, step by step, rather than further isolating and antagonizing them.
 
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Perados

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@Fred90

1. I don't think the bomb is the real problem - it's only a problem because other nations could follow

2. For you plan Japan and S.Korea would have to agree to build the bomb - I doubt Japan will (you know, history and stuff)

3. For your plan, Japan and S.Korea would have to exit the nuclear treaties. The USA would have to support this move. This would give Iran, Egypt, Brazil, Agentina, Saudi-Arabia and many others the signal to develop their own nuclear program.

4. The other no clear power UK, France, Russia, and China would have to support your move or it would end every international nuclear treaty.

5. You think pressure on China works? Just observe how successful the current trade war is.
Plus, N.Korea has shown in the past that they are less willing to do what China commands. They know China will keep on supporting them. China will do everything to make sure that the N.Korea system survives

6. China know such threat would be a bluff. The USA won't attack China.
 

sodominsane

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Funny thing about an abomb

To date ....nothing has some more to promote peace than an a bomb

Think about how many times counties get invaded over its history......once you get a nuke....that threat is over.....

I don't think any nuclear country has had a CREDIBLE threat to its borders

That being said a nuke is a bit of a trump...real word...not President

Why would any country volunteer to give up their nukes....put yourself in North Korea's possition...".if you don't give up your nukes...Japan's going nuclear...."
"Huh.....ok"

Did we give up our nukes cause USSR got them


Soooooo in the history of the world only one nation ever voluntarily have up nukes

South Africa.......why .....mass economic pressure.....plus after the solviet union fell and they eliminated apartied government

Threat was gone....no need for nukes


Now as is militarily the Kim government is pretty safe....and only a fool would be scared by the sabre rattling

However I BELIEVE....the Kim government in North Korea will collapse in my lifetime.....you can't have a stone economy forever while the rest of world moves on

Every year it gets tougher and to explain why your neighbors have skyscrapers and you have quansin huts

So economic isolation is the real threat to Kim government....and probably the only thing thing Kim would be willing to trade nukes in for.....lessening internal threat by strengthening economy....(but he definely plays a difficult balancing act in westernizing economy....can we say cold war circa 1989)

A big question is

Why do we find it so important to keep countries....un nuclear......one less country you can push arround?

It's always good to be the guy holding the gun.......especially when the other guy doesn't have one
 

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You make some really good points, you really do. Speaking to the issues you raised, China has always controlled NK to a point. As we see with Trump there are often limits on what you can do with crazy. In my opinion Trump has strengthened NK by talking about leaving Korea and breaking up NATO. He is so desperate to win a Nobel prize he is willing to take Kim's word for it that Kim is cutting his arsenal. In the meantime, since Kim got Trump to meet and talk to him, his power is greatly enhanced. Trump validated the whole "I'm crazy enough to destroy everyone" idea that got him the platform he wanted / needed to stay in power.
I disagree with your conclusion.
While the way Trump aranged the meeting was some kind of crazy... all this "I will bomb N.Korea back to stone age" wasn't needed.
But the outcome of the meeting was a success. I'm not talking about a real disarmament of N.Korae, but this meeting has strengened Kim's position in N.Korea. Till then he had to prove that he is worth to be the leader - that's why he threatened S.Kores all the time.
With meeting the President of the USA he achieved something not even his grandfather was able to. Since then Kim has become very calm.
China knows what it is dealing with, but like Trump's best friend and pee tape buddy, Putin benefits bigly if the US is a) in chaos, and b) is made to look weak on the international stage. Trump has helped them enormously. Hugely, bigly.
While I agree in general I doubt N.Korea fits in this strategy.
N.korea is seen as puffer between the US controlled S.Korea and China/Russia. They won't use N.Korea and threaten its stability just to make the US look weak.
You're also right about how China would react to Japan and SK adding nukes to their arsenals so that is a little limiting. Given Trump's reluctance to defend out allies China and NK are again made stronger. This is what happens when you vote for an isolationist like Trump. They fail to see the value of preventing war, especially when there is profit to be made by having one.
I doubt nukes would do anything good in this area.
It's the area with the most dynamic economies and the upcoming super power. We still have several border issues there...
If we will see another big conflict in the future, it will be in east Asia.
We don't have to add even more nukes.


But I agree. Trump's statements about support to his allies haven't done anything good for the USA. It has weakened the USA on the costs of China and Russia.
The other thing I would comment on is do not underestimate Trump's ability to do something to trigger a shooting war with anyone. As the Mueller investigation wraps and Cohen testifies openly before Congress the pressure is going to build. I think Trump would be fine leaving after one term, but he wants to go on his terms, not convicted of "high crimes" which he actually could be. There are some subtle cracks in the Red Republican wall of support, and they will break open with hard evidence. THAT is when the crazy shit will really start to happen.
right... a war could safe Trump's second term, but it won't be in east Asia.
You don't like to hear it but Obama's approach, which was pretty much US policy for decades was probably safer than the box that Trump opened. Trump could have been way more effective with NK, but he lacks the willingness to learn the policy nuances and to follow through. It is more complicated than a fucking wall. Consequently he has made the situation much worse.
 

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I may feel they *should* disarm, given who they are...

What do you mean by this?

...rather than further isolating and antagonizing them.

Yes. Isn't this why they want nuclear weapons in the first place? Because the American empire has continuously tried to squeeze them out of existence? If that's the reason they want it, I think the motive is quite justified.
 

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A totalitarian regime with a history of brutal human rights abuses. Not the sort of government you'd want to have The Bomb.

But they do, so there it is.

I'm not sure I follow. Do you think the DPRK is somehow less aware of how totally screwed (i.e. Pyongyang would be a glass field within minutes) they would be if they ever actually used the bomb... because they are authoritarian??
 

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I'm not sure I follow. Do you think the DPRK is somehow less aware of how totally screwed (i.e. Pyongyang would be a glass field within minutes) they would be if they ever actually used the bomb... because they are authoritarian??
Well, there could be a position where the regime could feel forced to use the bomb. Sanctions that threaten the existence of the regime. Japan attacked Pearl Harbour because of US sanctions. You think they would have used the A-bomb, if they had one?

Anyway, we all agree that a nation with a nuclear bomb won't get attacked by other nations. Russia, China, and the USA could run wars without getting attacked by any other super power.
A N.Korean nuclear bomb could lead to the wrong conclusion that N.Korea would be in the position to attack and conquer S.Korea. Some military could push for this.


And finally, we have an agreement that only 5 nations are allowed to have such a weapon. Either every nations follows this agreement, or none.
 
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Klingsor

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I'm not sure I follow. Do you think the DPRK is somehow less aware of how totally screwed (i.e. Pyongyang would be a glass field within minutes) they would be if they ever actually used the bomb... because they are authoritarian??

I think authoritarian regimes are inherently vulnerable to the caprices of power-mad dictators. So while awareness is good, you'd also like to see stability, not to mention sanity.
 
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keenobserver

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I disagree with your conclusion.
While the way Trump aranged the meeting was some kind of crazy... all this "I will bomb N.Korea back to stone age" wasn't needed.
But the outcome of the meeting was a success. I'm not talking about a real disarmament of N.Korae, but this meeting has strengened Kim's position in N.Korea. Till then he had to prove that he is worth to be the leader - that's why he threatened S.Kores all the time.
With meeting the President of the USA he achieved something not even his grandfather was able to. Since then Kim has become very calm.
While I agree in general I doubt N.Korea fits in this strategy.
N.korea is seen as puffer between the US controlled S.Korea and China/Russia. They won't use N.Korea and threaten its stability just to make the US look weak. I doubt nukes would do anything good in this area.
It's the area with the most dynamic economies and the upcoming super power. We still have several border issues there...
If we will see another big conflict in the future, it will be in east Asia.
We don't have to add even more nukes.


But I agree. Trump's statements about support to his allies haven't done anything good for the USA. It has weakened the USA on the costs of China and Russia. right... a war could safe Trump's second term, but it won't be in east Asia.

Making Kim stronger is not a good idea in anyone's world.
 
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halcyondays

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All it means is that the Kim dynasty has joined the nuclear club. It also means he has joined the MAD club. Like everyone else in the club he can't use nuclear weapons without committing personal and national suicide. It changes nothing. Ignore him.
 

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Making Kim stronger is not a good idea in anyone's world.
A Kim with a strong position inside his regime is better for everyone as a weak one.
We shouldn't threngthen N.Koreas position, but we should try to keep their system stable as long as we don't have an alternative.

Otherwise we will get problems as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lybia...
 
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keenobserver

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A Kim with a strong position inside his regime is better for everyone as a weak one.
We shouldn't threngthen N.Koreas position, but we should try to keep their system stable as long as we don't have an alternative.

Otherwise we will get problems as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lybia...

We do have an alternative - weaken them until a coup or he is driven to negotiate.