Lisbon Treaty ... will they or won't they?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by dong20, Oct 3, 2009.

?

What will happen

Poll closed Oct 4, 2009.
  1. It will be a YES

    5 vote(s)
    71.4%
  2. It will be a NO

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. It will be a dead heat

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. What's the Lisbon Treaty

    1 vote(s)
    14.3%
  5. I don't know but either way we're all doomed

    1 vote(s)
    14.3%
  6. Marmite is VILE

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. dong20

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    One or two here (probably more) are for various reasons surely hoping for a NO, but even if they get their wish, I wonder that they may come to wish they hadn't.

    I'm not saying they're wrong to feel the way some of them do, but for the most part, I simply don't share their sentiments.

    On this issue, Labour betrayed the British electorate - this is undeniable, and for that (and numerous other transgressions) they will doubtless be rewarded accordingly next spring. The Conservatives, well they threaten to tear it apart, IMO.

    My hope and suspicion is (as evidenced by his evasion on the topic), Cameron hasn't the spine for it.

    That said, his party would do well to rethink some of their rather unsavoury allegiences with the European Parliament, unless of course they're part of some as yet unvoiced strategy, ugh!
     
    #1 dong20, Oct 3, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2009
  2. bigboy1986

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    yeh fucking labour betrayed all of england :( god i hate them im voting conservative in a hope that they can lobby this crap im really angry at labour im never voting them again!
     
  3. Joll

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    I have a feeling it will be a yes. Labour will hang on till its all ratified b4 an election - then it will be very difficult for Cameron.

    Tony Blair's already being drummed up as a new EU President (possibly by end of October) should Ireland vote yes. Not good for Britain, imo.
     
  4. dong20

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  5. Jason

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    It's a nightmare.

    There is now overwhelming pressure of the Czechs and Poles to ratify, with the chattering classes convinced they will obey within a week or two. Yes we could have the treaty ratified by the end of the month, with a new state created against the probable will of most of the people it will govern. The new state has a massive democratic defecit, finances so corrupt that auditors have not signed off for years, and a control freak mentality. The idea that is now raising its head is that a European Army will be created with conscription to national service.

    Then there's Tony Blair widely tipped to be the first unelected president of an unelected presidency.

    Two sorts of thoughts:

    1) Irish Republic 1922-2009. What was the point? A state that came into existence through an armed struggle, endured decades of a standard of living lower than the UK, then a brief period of prosperity, and now votes away its de facto existence.

    2) David Cameron. What does he do? Logically he should promise a referendum. Possibly this could be on Lisbon (a no vote would cause a political storm even on a ratified treaty). Probably the vote should be on continued UK membership of the undemocratic socialist superstate that is the EU. But the result will be that the Labour government will flood the UK with every EU politician and businessman prepared to threaten poverty for the UK in the event of voting Conservative. If Cameron goes down this path the Conservatives will be fighting the massive campaign funds and organisation of the EU. The next election could well be the sort of gerrymander we have seen in Ireland.

    I hope Cameron's got the bottle to fight. I suspect his advisers will be saying back off, get elected, then negotiate a few largely pointless opt-outs (from President Blair).
     
  6. Joll

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    It kinda makes the Battle of Britain belatedly pointless too (in a way, at least). Fight for freedom only to give it away 'willingly' between 1973 and 2009.

    PS: Marmite is nice. ;)
     
  7. SilverTrain

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    As a Yank who knows not nearly enough about this subject/situation, I am relegated mostly to my gut feelings. And from the beginnings of the EU, I have reflexively disliked it. I understand the "pros" but the "cons" have always seemed, if less tangible, ultimately more important.

    I remain very interested by the intelligent, thoughtful posts on the subject here on lpsg.
     
  8. dong20

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    Seems, they did, or about 2/3rds of them anyway.

    Irish 'yes' vote in referendum welcomed inside and outside the EU

    Much gnashing of teeth in some parts of LPSG tonight, methinks.

    It's an unavoidable defect of 'democracy', sometimes people make the wrong choice (a.k.a. ones 'you' doesn't agree with). Cue ... this wasn't democratic - perhaps, but in contemporary politics what is - and no, the irony in the penultimate sentence, isn't lost on me. :rolleyes:

    Edit: Nope, Marmite is vile. I know this because I put it to a vote; 100% turnout, 100% said VILE. See, democracy in action!
     
    #8 dong20, Oct 3, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2009
  9. Jason

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    I think this vote causes a major rethink in many areas. A population have voted on exactly the same issue with just over a year separating the two votes. There was substantial debate before the first vote, so it was a conidered vote. There has been a massive change of view. Almost entirely this is down to considerations of economics, ie popular awareness that Ireland is broke and (supposedly) needs the EU to avoid going completely pear shaped.

    Ireland has seen its history as a struggle for independence, looked with pride at the Irish patriots who fought for an independent nation, defined itself as a nation in terms of the fight for independence. Now the people have voted by a very clear margin to give away a lot of that independence. There can be no Irish pride in this. "The harp that once through Tara's hall" now plays the EU's tune in Brussels. Whatever the problems of British rule (and they were many) Ireland was at least a valued part of the old UK. Now Ireland is the bankrupt and irrelevant fringe of an EU superstate. And now the vote is cast does anyone really think the EU is going to take any notice of a troublesome 1% of its population? The EU has played Ireland as a drug pusher plays a client - a few freebies, a few threats, now they are hooked forever as the junkie that will always need EU handouts and who has no influence. This is a sad, sad day for Ireland - and I think even most of the people who voted yes know this.

    This must have an impact on the politics of Northern Ireland. The Republican parties have campaigned for unification of Northern Ireland with Ireland. Do they now campaign for reunification of Northern Ireland to an administrative territory of the EU which is broke anyway? I rather think there is going to be a marked softening in the Republican position in NI (and perhaps more enthusiasm among Republicans for the NI asembly). Perhaps not a bad outcome here.

    In the UK as a whole the referendum has shown that an electorate can be bought on economic grounds. There must be a temptation for an incoming Conservative government to apply the contrary logic - cut the financial support and special deal for Scotland, hold the Scottish independence referendum (which the SNP government in Scotland wants) and encourage Scotland to go its own way. That would be to the financial good of the other home nations and substantially reduce the Labour MPs in a Westminster parliament. If nationalism is no more than economics then allegiance can be bought and sold. After all the Irish were bought and threatened; the Scots could as easily have their perks removed and be told they are not wanted.

    For Cameron a response to Lisbon is difficult. There would be integrity in promising a referendum on EU membership. If he does this the EU money and EU political machine will be used to campaign against him in the forthcoming UK election. This might backfire on the EU - but it would be a big risk for the Conservatives. I think he will probably promise just some sort of renegotiation. Maybe he should announce a referendum the day he is elected, not before!

    This is going to be a big issue in the UK. If Blair becomes President Blair this will be a red rag to a bull. If Ireland collapses into a financial mess anyway this will resonate in the UK. If the EU comes a financial cropper before the next UK election it will matter. Maybe the Conservatives should avoid being too outspoken on Europe and let events take their course.

    What I find desperately sad is that by as early as a few weeks' time the UK could have given many of the functions that make it a nation to the EU - without the referendum promised by our lying government. Curiously a manifesto is not considered in law to be a contract, so Labour breaking their manifesto promise to the people of the country to hold a referendum is not a breach of contract. This is the ultimate betrayal of the UK by our Labour government.
     
  10. Joll

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    *gnashes teeth* :mad:

    Tbh, Ireland sold its soul to Europe ages ago, and now it's totally dependent on them. Gordon Brown claims the Lisbon result is good for Britain, although I fail to see how (unless he means it's good 'cos we don't need to bother with a referendum ourselves now? Hmmmph?!!!).

    PS: Marmite rocks! :biggrin1: If the EU can laugh in the face of democracy, then so can I. ;)
     
    #10 Joll, Oct 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 4, 2009
  11. Jason

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    The ratification by Poland and the Czech Republic is presumably now a formality (though if the Czechs go through their own legal due process it should really take at least six months for them to ratify). I'm not absolutely giving up hope for a miracle, but in view of the massive pressure they will both be under to ratify now it is hard to see anything coming of this. We are now in the death throws of freedom for the United Kingdom and for the nations of Europe. Once Lisbon is ratified the EU is the de facto state, able to take more powers to the EU from the member countries without reference to those countries, and to persue a unified EU home and foreign policy.

    It is desperately hard to see what the Conservatives can do now. If they declare that they will call a referendum on EU membership they will have the money and might of the EU campaigning against them. Calling a referendum on Lisbon after it has passed into law seems problematic, though maybe it would have political value.

    I would love to see Cameron show his metal and promise a referendum - and face the political risks in this. There's a whisper on the news that he might get some sort of agreement from the Czechs to delay ratification. Probably nothing in it, but it would be tremendous news. We are facing a scenario where the UK is facing annihilation - along with all the nations of Europe. There is massive opposition in the UK to the idea of Lisbon, and that we are about to join without a promised referendum is shocking beyond belief.

    There is a resounding line in the Declaration of Arbroath which seems relevant: "It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom -- for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."
     
  12. Joll

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    I agree, Jase. It's very disheartening.

    My feeling is when your back's against the wall, the very best thing you can do is be bold and audacious. It IS time for the UK to have a referendum on this and our relationship with the EU - but will Cameron have the balls to do it?

    The UK won't put up with it forever - unless we let it slide so far that we no longer exist as a nation. :( People say you end up with the government you deserve, and ours is now in Brussels. Will we be able to get out before it's too late??

    Oddly, it reminds me of a scene in Star Wars (Attack of the Clones) when the Empire comes into being, and there's nothing they can do to stop it. Democracy ceases to exist as the (Blair-like) Emperor Palpatine 'reluctantly' accepts huge new powers...

    "Is this how it looks when democracy dies..."

    Good article in the Times...
     
    #12 Joll, Oct 4, 2009
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  13. Jason

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    The Irish Post today has a consideration of the likely outcome of the Czech delays to ratification.

    Treaty not yet safe as British election looms | The Post

    Interestingly it doesn't really reach a conclusion. There's also some debate today in of all places the Chinese press. There can be found the view that the Czech Republic feels vulnerable to Russian influence following Obama's decision to drop the missile defense shield, and therefore more likely to accept the Lisbon treaty as preferable to domination by Russia.

    I suppose a miracle could happen. But the latest possible date for a UK general election is June 2010. In practice May is almost sure to be the latest date (the UK avoids elections June, July, August and December, January, though there is no technical reason why they shouldn't happen at these times). As Lisbon comes into force the 1st of the month after the last ratification is submitted we would need the Czechs to hold out to 1st May. Basically 7 months. If they really do go through their legal process then it will indeed take this long. The question at the moment is what's in it for the Czechs? They feel very vulnerable, and they are getting the EU intimidation and bribery package to try to bully their compliance.

    Cameron badly needs a statement from the Czechs or the Poles. In the EU parliament the Conservatives do now sit with some Czechs and Poles, so I suppose in theory it is possible. But I'm clutching at straws.

    It is a sad day when the fate of the UK hangs on the internal politics of the Czech Republic and Poland. It demonstrates the depth of the betrayal of the British people by our present government that this is the case.
     
  14. Joll

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    It would be great if the Czechs held out till we could get a Tory government in - but it relies on the Czechs having the bottle that our politicians so far haven't had.

    If Cameron stalls on a referendum, then I'd suggest Boris launches a leadership challenge (he's broken ranks in the past day or so to demand a referendum). The Tories wouldn't do nearly so well in a General Election (I hope) if they went back on their promise to hold a referendum.
     
  15. Jason

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    This is one of the big news stories of the year, yet there is hardly any interest on LPSG and the topic is slipping quickly in the UK press - no one is really talking about it.

    The Jean Monnet school of European politics are winning - sausage slicing in politics. Every time the EU takes just a little bit more, and it somehow doesn't seem worth fighting over just that little bit. Nor is there all that much for the press to talk about.

    The BBC are saying upwards of 80% of Conservative party members want a pledge now for a referendum. In the country as a whole there is enormous support for the idea. But if at this stage Cameron states he will hold a referendum on a ratified treaty the EU bully machine will destroy the Conservatives. Actually I think he has to keep quiet now. Possible times to announce a referendum would be any time from the day the Czechs ratify to the day before a UK election. The intention should be to minimise the weeks or months in which the EU bully machine can do its worst. I don't think the Conservatives can go into an election with votes slipping to UKIP - UKIP got 16.5% at the European election, and at surely 10% at least must be natural Tory votes. The Conservatives do have to act.

    I also think a referendum on a ratified treaty has to offer multiple options. One is requesting negotiation on restitution of powers to the UK. The other is leaving the EU. I think you have to raise the second to hope to get anywhere with the first.

    Boris as PM? Now there's a thought!
     
    #15 Jason, Oct 5, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2009
  16. Joll

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    Yep, it's shocking actually. I'm not sure people realise the possible consequences on our country of current (or any) EU developments - and on the world for that matter.

    Yep, I find ol' Jean's methods deceitful and slightly nauseating, tbh. Do things step by step (in preparation for the next move) whilst pretending each step is innocuous. Also disguising political motives/actions as economic ones.

    I agree.

    If the Treaty gets through without any referendum from the Tories (even if after ratification) then I think time will have run out for Britain to extricate herself.

    Boris is the only one with enough balls (and thick skin) to do what needs doing, imo. Have you seen 'Boris Johnson and the Dream of Rome'? Worth seeing, and he certainly knows his onions as far as the EU is concerned.
     
    #16 Joll, Oct 5, 2009
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  17. SilverTrain

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    I certainly haven't heard it reported in the "mainstream" news outlets here in the States. But I haven't been looking for the story.

    It always amazes how a story like this gets little, if any coverage, while Anna Nicole Smith gets 24 hour coverage for days/weeks on end. :rolleyes:

    But you guys are doing a good job with the analysis in this thread.
     
  18. Joll

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    Cheers Silver! :D Nice to know at least some ppl have got their ear to the ground. :p

    Jase - heard on the news Boris mentioned Europe in his speech at the Tory Conference today. He (or his office?) apparently have written to the Czech and Polish officials asking them to delay ratification until the Tories have the chance to give the UK a vote. :)
     
    #18 Joll, Oct 5, 2009
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  19. D_Relentless Original

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    I agree, Labour sold everybody out and that Tony Blair needs ....ing for the mess he made.

    I also don't want to vote conservative either, something about Cameron on the politics show the other day made me not want to trust him either, i don't think he is that transparant.

    So, where do you go?.
     
  20. Jason

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    Let's face it we don't really trust any of or politicians - the way the country reacted to the expenses revelations made that clear.

    I think we need a different bunch in power. Looks like we are going to have Tony Blair as president of Europe, and the idea of at the same time having Gordon Brown as PM is just too ghastly. Labour have to be booted out. The idea of "it's time for change" sounds shallow, but there is a lot in it. Where do you go? - that's easy, it has to be Conservative. Lib Dem would form a past with Labour to keep Labour in power.

    I also think the Conservatives - like all parties always - will ignore most of their manifesto when they are in power. The key things they will really do are dynamite and you just get on and do them - you don't show everyone your hand of cards first.
     
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