It's the latter...
American taxes don't begin to cover our expenses. To meet our financial obligations the US sells bonds to other countries. These debt obligations have been as good as gold and many, many, countries back their own currencies with them instead of gold. They also need US dollars to purchase oil because oil is only sold in American dollars. If you want to buy oil, you must use US dollars. Iran does have its own oil bourse, but it's not terribly successful because nobody wants to hold Iranian currency.
As the dollar plummets, all those debt obligations drop in value. These countries gave the US money in return for a bond plus interest. If the value of the dollar drops, then so does the value of their investment because the value of that bond drops as the dollar does.
Why would so many countries, including China, buy all these bonds? Mostly it's because they believe the US will remain dominant in the world and, therefore, be able to press its advantage diplomatically, militarily, and economically. Or at least that's what they thought. Many countries are turning from the dollar to the Euro, and want to be able to buy oil in currency other than dollars. That way they can ditch the dollars which are declining in value and will continue to so long as we cannot be fiscally responsible. Right now, the US can press its advantage with its big stick. Like the Soviets before us, we're going to be facing a guns or butter proposition. As our standard of living and economic power wanes, so too will our ability to maintain a global military. At some point the people of the US will demand that our military money be spent on domestic needs because we won't be able to meet our fiscal obligations without doing so.
When that happens, as it will happen, then the US will collapse economically and politically because all those offshore dollars will be dumped back to us and the OPEC states who have been told, in no uncertain terms :AR15firing: by the US, to sell oil only in dollars, will be free to sell in Euros instead. Now you know why we care so much about the middle east. Did you know Saddam wanted to open an oil bourse using something other than dollars? So does Venezuela. Hmmm.
Now you may also know why the US power structure isn't terribly keen on finding anything other than oil to power the world.
While we have been saddling ourselves with all this debt we can't repay, Putin has been quietly busy making the ruble a hard currency. He's paid off all of Russia's debts including those made by the czars. He's buying enormous quantities of gold (while the US sells hers) to back it with, and he's balancing Russia's budget. He too wants to open an oil bourse and to sell Russian oil in rubles.
Oil, and our ability to control it economically, is the root of American world dominance. Without it, we cannot maintain our enormous military infrastructure nor protect American imperial interests (don't think we're an empire? Have a look at
where we have military bases).
On the outskirts of the government, a few people are shouting long and hard to warn us of what is about to happen.
Here's the head of the Government Accountability Office, the Comptroller General of the United States, telling us what's really going on. The GAO keeps track of what Congress
really spends, not what Congress's legally illegal, but politically appealing, accounting numbers say.
Here's a more digestible, and alarming, version from 60 Minutes.
Our current socio-economic paradigm cannot be sustained.
A number of things will happen when this does. Either the US will go to pieces as the right, unable to face the uncertainty of world where the US is just another country moves even further right in a claim to recapture US power and glory, goes into full-tilt fascist mode, or we will deflate quickly and painfully as the government literally goes bankrupt like the Soviet Union's did. Or we may be lucky and deflate softly like the British Empire. We may even break-up into separate countries. It's my guess that we will deflate quickly but have a relatively soft landing so long as the right wing is able to accept what is taking place. Everything really depends on that and the ability of governments to keep order.
However it happens, our economy will tank hard. The 1929 crash will look like a Hamptons white party compared to what we will face. We'll have hyperinflation akin to Weimar Germany (where people were paid three times a day, went grocery shopping with wheelbarrows full of money, people paid for restaurant meals before they ate as the value of the mark plummeted so fast that people heated their homes by
burning money because it lasted longer than the fuel the money would buy), social unrest on a grand scale, and a likely reorganization of government complete with a Constitutional Convention. This sort of eventuality may be why
the government is building internment camps.
Right now, we're doing the bread and circuses thing. News is now infotainment, media consolidation has allowed the power structure to minimize criticism of it, rapidly declining public education standards have left two entire generations completely unaware of the necessity of Americans to always question government to keep it in check, and we have lost the ability or desire to see where it is all going. We have reality shows and credit cards, what else do we need? People become angrier when their cable goes out than when their government passes laws that erode their civil liberties. We have been privileged for so long that we take our prosperity for granted. We're the grandchildren and children of spoiled rich kids who do not want nor care to understand how the world really works.
Après nous, le deluge.