McCain & Obama Race Still Close

Discussion in 'Et Cetera, Et Cetera' started by Trinity, Jun 29, 2008.

  1. Trinity

    Trinity New Member

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    Congressional Quarterly - CQ Politics

    The Wild Differences in The Polls, Explained

    June 27, 2008
    By Andrew Satter, CQ Staff

    Video: Pew Research Center editor Richard Morin explains discrepancies in different presidential polls
    If you’ve been watching Presidential preference polls over the past week, you might feel a bit whipsawed.

    For the second straight day, Gallup’s daily tracking poll Thursday has John McCain and Barack Obama tied. Both candidates dropped a point from yesterday’s tracking poll, down to 44 percent. The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points.

    The Rasmussen daily tracking poll in the same period of time has shown a 3-7 point gap between the two candidates.
    Neither of the daily tracking polls square with two polls from that show Barack Obama holding a stunning double-digit lead. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showed Obama with a 12 point lead over McCain, and a Newsweek poll had Obama leading by 15 points, if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr were included in the mix.

    Why the difference? Were the Newsweek and L.A. Times biased in favor of Obama? Do the Rasmussen and Gallup pollsters favor McCain? Or maybe the public is wildly changing its views, daily.

    All unlikely, says Richard Morin, a senior editor at the Pew Research Center. In an interview with CQ Politics, he said the discrepancy is probably a result of the Newsweek and L.A. Times/Bloomberg polls over-representing Democrats.

    “When I look at those results, I know something is going on,” said Morin.
    “The first place that I look when I see these discrepancies, I look for the percentage of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in the sample. We know that the best predictor of how someone is going to vote is their party ID.

    “Both the L.A. Times/Bloomberg and the Newsweek polls have (too) large percentage of Democrats and a (too) small percentage of Republicans.”
    While there are indeed more people who identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans in the country, Morin says the other polls, including Gallup, are more in line with the actual disparity than the Bloomberg or Newsweek polls.

    “Interestingly enough,” Morin said, “if you do the math and apply the proper percentages to the L.A. Times/Bloomberg and the Newsweek findings, you find that their results change dramatically.”
    In fact, Morin says, if the two polls that show Obama winning by a large margin were to modify their findings using the same percentage of Democrats and Republicans as other polls, Obama’s lead would come down to somewhere between a toss-up and a small, single digit lead for Obama.

    The Wild Differences in The Polls, Explained

    Morin cautioned that neither organization oversampled Democrats intentionally. It’s a tricky business, getting exactly the right mix that mirrors the entire population.

    “Embedded in the operations of polling are subtle differences that result in skews — and they can be either Republican skews or Democratic skews.”
    Andrew Romano writes in his Newsweek blog, ‘Stumper:’ “The problem here is that unlike race, age and gender, party ID is fluid--and even extreme swings might reflect actual changes in the mood of the electorate. ‘This is a canard,’ says NEWSWEEK polling maestro Larry Hugick when asked about the McCain memo [which charged that the party ratios were wrong]. ‘Both parties do it. But ID isn’t a fixed property. In fact, it’s associated with the candidates. It’s been proven that as a candidate goes up in the polls, so does his party. Same when a candidate goes down.’”

    As the season wears on, there are likely to be plenty of differences among the slew of surveys. Pollsters commonly caution that each poll is “just a snapshot in time.” And the focus has to be just right.





    CQ © 2007 All Rights Reserved | Congressional Quarterly Inc. 1255 22nd Street N.W. Washington, D.C. 20037 | 202-419-8500
     
  2. ZOS23xy

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    People have complained that Obama's proposed policies would cause a lot of tax increases and a lot of spending...

    McCain proposes to stay in Iraq. If you're at war, there is no bottom line...

    better that all that money thrown away in a foolish war were better spent repairing the schools, highways, bridges, levees, telecommunications, energy research...
     
  3. Industrialsize

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    What's your point?
     
  4. sargon20

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    That her pills still haven't kicked in.
     
  5. tripod

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    These long cut and paste posts of hers are REALLY annoying. If you wanna say something, then SAY IT... I don't need to come to lpsg to get my "news".
     
  6. sargon20

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    Nothing is ever brief and to the point(bullets please). We have to have long essays on the subject when we already know the point 'Obama BAD...Hillary GOOD'.
     
  7. HazelGod

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    Neg. Essay implies a personal construction of the member posting. All we see from this wingnut are entire articles and editorials pasted into threads with absolutely zero independent analysis or conclusions of its own.

    I try to shield myself from its stupidity with my ignore list, but some people insist on quoting it wholesale...

    Just messin' with ya, Indy! :biggrin1:
     
  8. Industrialsize

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    I enjoy Trinity's liberal use of bold faced type. It makes everything so much more important
     
  9. B_jacknapier

    B_jacknapier New Member

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    I wonder if there will be riots after McCain wins.
     
  10. sargon20

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    There will be riots regardless. All our yesterdays will be coming due soon.
     
  11. Industrialsize

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    After McCain wins what?? The republican Nomination? Because that is as close as he is going to get to the Office of the President, unless Obama invites him over.
     
  12. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

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    He's said flat out that he would have to increase taxes at first. Some people think he's a jerk for it, I think he's being realistic. Not to mention treating the people like we know a thing or two, rather than just shouting "no new taxes" and assuming we'll all think it's great and achievable.

    It's so that we can afford to fund other government operations, such as education and healthcare, without bleeding out the military spending all at once. He plans to withdraw from Iraq gradually (in other words, he's realistic about it) and understands that we need to continue funding operations until we're out. At that point, we'll be spending significantly less money on the military, and I would not be surprised if taxes come back down again once the dust settles.

    (Not saying you don't realize all this, because I don't know. But I know some people hear "tax increase" and think "federal crooks.")
     
  13. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

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  14. simcha

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    Shhhhh! Don't actually bring out real-live evidence for Trinity. She'll blow a gasket. She's on the edge.

    Can someone in her county call Mobile Response? It seems someone needs a 72-hour involuntary hold...
     
  15. Trinity

    Trinity New Member

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    You read the article and you understood what the article stated. You don't need bullet points...the title said it all. The article was clear. Any polls you post are taken into account in the article. You understood that but you want to complain about "news" and "bullet points" because you don't want it to be so...but you got it.
     
  16. HazelGod

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    It's already made up its mind, folks...don't try to befuddle it with facts or realities.
     
  17. D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

    D_Thoraxis_Biggulp New Member

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    Actually, the only poll taken into account in that article is the Gallup Poll, and it's a couple of days old. Earlier this week, they were tied at 44 each. Now Obama has regained a lead of 46 to 42. Oh and McCain has yet to hold a lead this month in the Gallup Polls, by the way.
     
  18. D_Kaye Throttlebottom

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    word.
     
  19. Trinity

    Trinity New Member

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    The article took into account the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll and Rasmussen Daily Tracking and the wild dispartities between other polls. The Gallup Daily was within three days... Obama being up slightly by 4 points in the following days is in line with the Rasmussen Poll cited by the article.
    The Rasmussen daily tracking poll in the same period of time as shown a 3-7 point gap between the two candidates.
    The closeness of this race at this point is closer than people would have thought with the status of the Republican brand.

    You read the article and you got it.

     
  20. sargon20

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