NIC, I hope you're right about McCain. Perhaps I judge him too harshly because of his recent pandering to the right-wing. I still think a Democratic president would be better, even Clinton, but that may be because I've never leaned conservative on any issue, so McCain will just never do it for me.
...I wouldn't be too stressed if he won, even if I would like to see the Republicans lose.
Agreed.
The only way the Republican party would change due to a loss is if it was a humiliating catastrophic loss for them, and I don't think that is going to happen. If it did, then shifting public opinion from the outside would force change within the party....
I agree that no humiliating defeat is forthcoming, as much as I think they deserve it, but I'm not sure that it's necessary. If McCain loses but the race is close, are Republicans going to think "Oh, we should have pandered more to the far right" or might they think, "Oh, we were really close with McCain; we need to move a little more towards the center." I think the only way a humiliating defeat work would is if public opinion truly shifted--I'm talking massive cultural change--towards something like eco-feminist, neo-pagan, tree-hugging, Green Party-type values. Then the Republican party might re-align itself to better represent classical liberalism.
Unless...do you think losing to Clinton (even if it's a close race) would be humiliating enough?
...On the other hand I think that if McCain won he actually has a reasonable chance at changing things from the inside...For the sake of getting rid of the far right nuts, McCain would actually be much better than Clinton. McCain will help strengthen and embolden the centrists and liberal-leaning members of the Republican party, as well as traditional fiscal/libertarian conservatives, and help weaken the monopoly of the NeoCons and other far-right nuts who have recently taken control of the party.
You and jeffery_stelesvyle almost have me persuaded. I think the key point here is that he'd have to win, and then be an effective president, without pandering to the far-right. There's doubt about whether or not he can do this. I saw a bunch of pundits on this morning's news (not that I give a crap what the pundits think) talking about the possibility of him choosing Romney as a running mate. Although many of them thought Romney was an unlikely choice, many thought he would be a good choice, and they all agreed that McCain needed to choose someone like Romney (i.e., Christian and strongly conservative) as his running mate.
In any case, in spite of their talk, as I mentioned before, I don't think the far-right nights are going to leave the political forum willingly. They'll support McCain in the end, and then do whatever they can to make sure that he relies on their continued support, or at least to make it
look like he needs their support. It remains to be seen whether or not he does.
I don't especially like Hillary and never have. I can't believe the Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot this bad by seriously considering her candidacy at all. At this point, with public opinion so against Bush, I think the Democrats could run almost anybody and win against any Republican. Though the Republicans are very smart in picking McCain, as he is the strongest candidate they've got in a national election, I still think Obama or any number of other candidates could beat him. But I doubt that Hillary could. Hillary is not a viable national candidate. She is far too hated, even within her own party but especially outside of it. I know and understand that some of this has to do with the years of coordinated character assassination that the right-wing radio shows have been performing ever since the first Clinton presidency, but that doesn't change the fact that she is disliked and in some cases despised. Of the three serious frontrunners: Obama, McCain, and Clinton, I do think she would be the absolute worst for uniting the country or bringing us together...
Oh, I'm so torn on this. I'm one of those oddballs who likes Hillary and I always have. I've never understood people's dislike of her, other than the aforementioned character assassination, plus no small amount of sexism. I think she comes across in debates as intelligent, thoughtful, and reasonable. With regards to Obama, as much as I wish I could like him, I'm not impressed. (I'm one of those people who doesn't think he's ready yet, although he may be in another decade or so.) I think his success so far lies not in the fact that he's ready to be president, but that America is ready for him to be president. But I worry that if he wins, he'll be in over his head, he won't be effective, and after his term is up, everything will swing back to the right. So my worries about an Obama presidency are similar to your worries about a Clinton presidency, although for different reasons.
I agree with you about how hard it would be for Hillary to win, but my fantasy is that she manages to win anyway and then, with the support of a Democratic Congress, goes on to be a very effective president (I think she's perfectly capable of it), undoing much of the damage of the Bush-Cheney years, thereby proving everyone wrong about her.
But I can't deny how much she's hated, and frankly I'm surprised she's gotten this far. So my fantasy is probably just a fantasy. Unfortunately.