Most accurate pollster in 2004: Obama 44.8%, McCain 43.7%, Not Sure 11

Discussion in 'Politics' started by 1BiGG1, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. 1BiGG1

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    Messages:
    1,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI

    Looks like the liberals are gonna have too try stealing another election when they can’t win it fair and square ….

    IBDeditorials.com: IBD/TIPP Economic, Presidential Election, and Political Polls -- IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

    IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

    Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

    McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
     
  2. lucky8

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2006
    Messages:
    3,716
    Likes Received:
    17
    Gender:
    Male
    Wait a minute, Bush is a liberal?
     
  3. D_one and done

    D_one and done New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2007
    Messages:
    1,154
    Likes Received:
    1
  4. D_Davy_Downspout

    D_Davy_Downspout Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2004
    Messages:
    1,144
    Likes Received:
    0
    1Bigg1, you do realize that national polls are fairly meaningless, since they don't translate into electoral votes. Regardless, this poll is the only one released today that has the race even within it's margin of error.
     
  5. B_Morning_Glory

    B_Morning_Glory New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2007
    Messages:
    1,925
    Likes Received:
    2
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    lucasville, ohio
    LOL, i thought that very same thing but my words were since when LOL. goodness if the reps, aren't messed up this yr, LOL. well at least some are. and some are voting democrat. those are the good Republicans. you ANGEL'S YOU.
    bless your heart.:wink:
     
  6. Flashy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2007
    Messages:
    8,097
    Likes Received:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    at home
    i have to agree with part of your statement (that national polls are relatively meaningless...especially the ones that had Obama up 14 points just last week)

    obviously it will come down to the voting in the swing states...

    but this was not the only poll released that showed narrowing...AP came out with a very similar one yesterday, that said nearly the same thing, and had the race well within the the margin of error.

    a one point lead for Obama

    AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


    this is starting to look ominous for Obama, especially if all those polls about race costing Obama 6 points on election day come to fruition. obviously, it is speculative, but it is a concern. (the poll was about a month ago, by the AP, Yahoo and Stanford University)

    Poll: Barack Obama could lose six percentage points on election day for being black
     
  7. mindseye

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2002
    Messages:
    5,685
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    • "Most accurate pollster" of the 2004 season is TIPP's own advertising spin: they made some significant errors that canceled out in a lucky way.
    • TIPP's own results include the following asterisked footnotes: "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size." Let me repeat: small sample size. TIPP got very favorable results by not including many young people in their poll. The accuracy of their results, then, necessarily depends on young voters not voting. That's been true in the past, but Obama's been especially successful at energizing the youth vote.
    • TIPP used the following party weightings: 32% Democrats; 31% Republicans; 36% Independent/Other. That's only a 1% gap between Democratic and Republican weightings. No other major pollster uses such a small gap: Rasmussen uses 5.5%, Gallup uses 9%. Even FOX uses a 7% gap. Unless TIPP knows something these other pollsters don't, they're underreporting Democratic response by a few percentage points.
    Even with these anomalies, Obama is still ahead. Looks like liberals won't have to steal elections (and really, if we had that power, you think we'd have let you guys steal 2000? :mad: )
     
  8. D_Davy_Downspout

    D_Davy_Downspout Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2004
    Messages:
    1,144
    Likes Received:
    0
    Well if we're talking national polls:

    10/22

    ABC/Post Obama +11
    Battleground Obama +2
    Diageo/Hotline Obama +5
    Gallup Obama +8
    Rasmussen Obama +6
    Research 2000 Obama +12
    Zogby Obama +9.6

    10/23

    ABC/Post Obama +11
    Battleground Obama +4
    Diageo/Hotline Obama +5
    Gallup Obama +6
    Rasmussen Obama +7
    Research 2000 Obama +10
    Zogby Obama +11.9


    Regardless, the poll the original poster quoted has McCain winning 74 to 22 among 18-24yo. Unless that poll was taken at a College Republicans dinner, I'd say it's pretty suspect.
     
  9. 1BiGG1

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    Messages:
    1,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
    LOL! Love your attempt at revisionist history but in case anybody actually believes your obvious distortion from reality that was Al Gore trying to steal an election, not George Bush :rolleyes:
     
  10. OCMuscleJock

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2008
    Messages:
    3,292
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    880
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    San Luis Obispo, CA

    If Al Gore wanted to steal something from GW...all he had to do is hold up something shiny.
     
  11. mindseye

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2002
    Messages:
    5,685
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    You're putting words in my mouth: I didn't say it was George Bush who stole it. I'm saying it was Rehnquist, Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy, and O'Connor who did.

    Mark my words: Future historians will judge Bush v. Gore as harshly as either Plessy or Korematsu.
     
  12. 1BiGG1

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    Messages:
    1,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI

    History will laugh at Al Gore for his silly antics trying to steal an election and his fear-mongering on global warming while riding around the world in a private jet to give talks on the subject lol!
     
  13. mindseye

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2002
    Messages:
    5,685
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    May you live long enough to know how utterly you've been proven wrong.
     
  14. slurper_la

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2008
    Messages:
    5,359
    Albums:
    2
    Likes Received:
    717
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Los Angeles (CA, US)
    most accurate? 1Bigg1 - you really are a fool.

    This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.

    The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama.

    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3050/2968423354_dc64bff338_o.png

    We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.

    Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.

    To find good news for McCain, you have to go South -- to the deep South -- where new polling inArkansas, Texas, and Louisiana suggests that those states have yet to become competitive.

    As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html
     
  15. 1BiGG1

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    Messages:
    1,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
     
  16. slurper_la

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2008
    Messages:
    5,359
    Albums:
    2
    Likes Received:
    717
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Los Angeles (CA, US)


    really?

    10 national polls and 23 of 29 state based polls disagree but IBD is THE most accurate?

    you're delusional.
     
  17. mindseye

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2002
    Messages:
    5,685
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    Aw, hell. Even the "most accurate" poll still shows McCain loooooooosing. I can live with that.
     
  18. 1BiGG1

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    Messages:
    1,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
    Reread the title of this thread again r-e-a-l-l-y s-l-o-w and look closely for the part that says “in 2004” – I think you might have missed that earlier. :wink:
     
  19. ledroit

    ledroit New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2005
    Messages:
    854
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    8
    Gender:
    Male
    This "result" is from the poll nazi's at IDB. It's a complete joke. (read here.)
    This poll claims that 74% of voters aged 18-24 support John McCain.

    That means they asked 50 kids at a Palin rally.

    538.com is run by a conservative republican, who is an obsessive statistician. If you're serious about polls, check out his stats.
     
  20. D_Davy_Downspout

    D_Davy_Downspout Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2004
    Messages:
    1,144
    Likes Received:
    0
    If you didn't think that past accuracy implied current relevance, why would you include it in the title?
     
Draft saved Draft deleted