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Most accurate pollster in 2004: Obama 44.8%, McCain 43.7%, Not Sure 11

Discussion in 'Politics' started by 1BiGG1, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. 1BiGG1

    1BiGG1 Experimental Member

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    Looks like the liberals are gonna have too try stealing another election when they can’t win it fair and square ….

    IBDeditorials.com: IBD/TIPP Economic, Presidential Election, and Political Polls -- IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

    IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

    Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

    McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
     
  2. lucky8

    lucky8 Expert Member

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    Wait a minute, Bush is a liberal?
     
  3. D_one and done

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  4. D_Davy_Downspout

    D_Davy_Downspout Account Disabled

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    1Bigg1, you do realize that national polls are fairly meaningless, since they don't translate into electoral votes. Regardless, this poll is the only one released today that has the race even within it's margin of error.
     
  5. B_Morning_Glory

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    LOL, i thought that very same thing but my words were since when LOL. goodness if the reps, aren't messed up this yr, LOL. well at least some are. and some are voting democrat. those are the good Republicans. you ANGEL'S YOU.
    bless your heart.:wink:
     
  6. Flashy

    Flashy Experimental Member

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    i have to agree with part of your statement (that national polls are relatively meaningless...especially the ones that had Obama up 14 points just last week)

    obviously it will come down to the voting in the swing states...

    but this was not the only poll released that showed narrowing...AP came out with a very similar one yesterday, that said nearly the same thing, and had the race well within the the margin of error.

    a one point lead for Obama

    AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


    this is starting to look ominous for Obama, especially if all those polls about race costing Obama 6 points on election day come to fruition. obviously, it is speculative, but it is a concern. (the poll was about a month ago, by the AP, Yahoo and Stanford University)

    Poll: Barack Obama could lose six percentage points on election day for being black
     
  7. mindseye

    mindseye Experimental Member

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    • "Most accurate pollster" of the 2004 season is TIPP's own advertising spin: they made some significant errors that canceled out in a lucky way.
    • TIPP's own results include the following asterisked footnotes: "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size." Let me repeat: small sample size. TIPP got very favorable results by not including many young people in their poll. The accuracy of their results, then, necessarily depends on young voters not voting. That's been true in the past, but Obama's been especially successful at energizing the youth vote.
    • TIPP used the following party weightings: 32% Democrats; 31% Republicans; 36% Independent/Other. That's only a 1% gap between Democratic and Republican weightings. No other major pollster uses such a small gap: Rasmussen uses 5.5%, Gallup uses 9%. Even FOX uses a 7% gap. Unless TIPP knows something these other pollsters don't, they're underreporting Democratic response by a few percentage points.
    Even with these anomalies, Obama is still ahead. Looks like liberals won't have to steal elections (and really, if we had that power, you think we'd have let you guys steal 2000? :mad: )
     
  8. D_Davy_Downspout

    D_Davy_Downspout Account Disabled

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    Well if we're talking national polls:

    10/22

    ABC/Post Obama +11
    Battleground Obama +2
    Diageo/Hotline Obama +5
    Gallup Obama +8
    Rasmussen Obama +6
    Research 2000 Obama +12
    Zogby Obama +9.6

    10/23

    ABC/Post Obama +11
    Battleground Obama +4
    Diageo/Hotline Obama +5
    Gallup Obama +6
    Rasmussen Obama +7
    Research 2000 Obama +10
    Zogby Obama +11.9


    Regardless, the poll the original poster quoted has McCain winning 74 to 22 among 18-24yo. Unless that poll was taken at a College Republicans dinner, I'd say it's pretty suspect.
     
  9. 1BiGG1

    1BiGG1 Experimental Member

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    LOL! Love your attempt at revisionist history but in case anybody actually believes your obvious distortion from reality that was Al Gore trying to steal an election, not George Bush :rolleyes:
     
  10. OCMuscleJock

    OCMuscleJock Superior Member

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    If Al Gore wanted to steal something from GW...all he had to do is hold up something shiny.
     
  11. mindseye

    mindseye Experimental Member

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    You're putting words in my mouth: I didn't say it was George Bush who stole it. I'm saying it was Rehnquist, Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy, and O'Connor who did.

    Mark my words: Future historians will judge Bush v. Gore as harshly as either Plessy or Korematsu.
     
  12. 1BiGG1

    1BiGG1 Experimental Member

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    History will laugh at Al Gore for his silly antics trying to steal an election and his fear-mongering on global warming while riding around the world in a private jet to give talks on the subject lol!
     
  13. mindseye

    mindseye Experimental Member

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    May you live long enough to know how utterly you've been proven wrong.
     
  14. slurper_la

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    most accurate? 1Bigg1 - you really are a fool.

    This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.

    The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama.

    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3050/2968423354_dc64bff338_o.png

    We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.

    Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.

    To find good news for McCain, you have to go South -- to the deep South -- where new polling inArkansas, Texas, and Louisiana suggests that those states have yet to become competitive.

    As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html
     
  15. 1BiGG1

    1BiGG1 Experimental Member

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  16. slurper_la

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    really?

    10 national polls and 23 of 29 state based polls disagree but IBD is THE most accurate?

    you're delusional.
     
  17. mindseye

    mindseye Experimental Member

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    Aw, hell. Even the "most accurate" poll still shows McCain loooooooosing. I can live with that.
     
  18. 1BiGG1

    1BiGG1 Experimental Member

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    Reread the title of this thread again r-e-a-l-l-y s-l-o-w and look closely for the part that says “in 2004” – I think you might have missed that earlier. :wink:
     
  19. ledroit

    ledroit Sexy Member

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    This "result" is from the poll nazi's at IDB. It's a complete joke. (read here.)
    This poll claims that 74% of voters aged 18-24 support John McCain.

    That means they asked 50 kids at a Palin rally.

    538.com is run by a conservative republican, who is an obsessive statistician. If you're serious about polls, check out his stats.
     
  20. D_Davy_Downspout

    D_Davy_Downspout Account Disabled

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    If you didn't think that past accuracy implied current relevance, why would you include it in the title?
     
  21. Industrialsize

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    When 10 polls say one thing and ONE poll says another, we call that an "outlier". Kind of like scoring the Olympics, throw out the high and low and average the rest!
     
  22. B_New End

    B_New End Banned

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    No, 538 is run by an Obama supporter. But his analysis and debunking of this poll is right on. 74% of the youth support McCain? NOT.
     
  23. lucky8

    lucky8 Expert Member

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    Every website is run by either a McCain or Obama supporter, let's stop using that as an excuse for articles we don't like.
     
  24. davec94

    davec94 Experimental Member

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    This poll says that the 18-24 group is breaking 64 - 30 for McCain LOL. According to their disclaimer their 18-24 sample was very small, meaning that the rest of their sample distribution is out of whack.

    but they were accurate in the past, and judging by the state of the economy we surely know that statistical foresight is reliably judged using past info so
     
  25. sparky11point5

    sparky11point5 Sexy Member

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    538.com also has an outstanding analysis of the 'likely voter' issues that affect Zogby, IBD, and others. Essentially, the 2004 models (you are only a likely voter if you voted previously) just might not be right for 2008. This is why some of the more permissive polls, which do not filter out first time voters might turn out to be accurate.

    None of this matters. Vote, Vote, Vote for change!
     
  26. 1BiGG1

    1BiGG1 Experimental Member

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    What’s with those polls? - Yahoo! News

    If anything could cause bigger headaches than campaign ads, it's the up-and-down, back-and-forth nature of polls.

    The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama has a solid lead against John McCain. Today he's up by more than 7 points in the Real Clear Politics poll averages. (Those numbers feed the Yahoo! News political dashboard.) The Illinois senator has had a similar lead for about a month now.

    But just as journalists nationwide were starting to write their landslide stories, in comes this week's AP poll ... with McCain behind by just one point. That might as well be a tie. If you factor in the margin of error, then McCain could actually be ahead.

    If the AP poll was the 1 in a McCain 1-2 punch, then in came the IBD/TIPP Poll with it's left hook. It too had McCain down by 1, with the momentum among key voting blocks going to the Republican. This from the polling firm who says they were the "Most Accurate Pollster" of the 2004 election.

    Weird thing is, these polls came out at the same time other major polls showed Obama with a double-digit lead.

    So, what gives?

    The short answer: The devil is in the details.

    Polling isn't an exact science. Not even close. It's really an informed estimation game that leans on some speculation about who is showing up on Election Day. Pollsters can't ensure that they talk to a perfectly proportional representation of the people who will vote. So they weigh the responses they get to match the demographics of who they think will actually show up and pull the lever.

    Confused yet? While the execution can be messy, the concept is pretty simple.

    We'll use that AP poll as an example. Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic gives a specific example about keeping healthy speculation when debating poll findings:

    "44% of the likely voter sample in the AP/GFK-Roper poll... are self-identified evangelicals. That's about double the weighted average that pollsters generally assume."

    Ambinder is saying most pollsters don't assume that many voting people are evangelicals. But that doesn't mean AP is wrong -- no one knows for sure who is showing up on Election Day.

    Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight gives the IBD/TIPP poll the same speculative treatment, only in this case Silver questions the number of young people they say plan to vote for McCain:

    "IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds. Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?

    IBD/TIPP puts an asterisk by this result, stipulating that 'Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size.'"


    Conventional wisdom (backed by Gallup) says young people will vote for Obama by an incredible margin, so as Silver points out, these numbers don't make sense in a conventional way.
    While we're on it, there's one more important thing to note on the youth vote. No one knows if the youth turnout is going to be as dramatic as most people say it's going to be. This fact explains another reason for the AP poll discrepancy. AP does not assume a high youth vote on Election Day. And they aren't the only ones. Bloomberg did a story about polling today that quotes Republican pollster Ed Goeas: Some pollsters have an ''unrealistic'' expectation that the youth vote will dramatically increase this year.

    Since we've got another week until we know who's showing up to vote, what are we poll-obsessed folks to do in the meantime? Well, the answer, as my mother would say, is to be patient and wait for Election Day
     
  27. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy Banned

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    Polls are completely useless to me. Half of them have Obama in the lead, whole the other have McCain. They all show a big number of undecided. I can't or won't get excited by any of the findings on these things.
     
  28. davec94

    davec94 Experimental Member

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    DONT YOU UNDERSTAND IBD WAS RIGHT IN THE PAST THAT MEANS THEY ARE ALWAYS GOING TO BE RIGHT.
     
  29. mindseye

    mindseye Experimental Member

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    Whoops.

     
  30. mindseye

    mindseye Experimental Member

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    Just following up again on the morning before the election: The "most accurate pollster in 2004" has never since shown a result as narrow as the one-day anomaly they showed on October 23.

    Their "most accurate poll" still bears the footnote "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size". By Wednesday, we'll see the wisdom (if any) in undersampling young people.
     
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