New Era Dawns for EU

[eurotop40]

And honestly folks, I'm glad the EU will now be stepping up and taking more of a role as world's policeman. It's high time the US stepped down from that role , and get down to the business of business. Just my two cents

I fully agree.

 

[Drifterwood]

The point of an economic union would be to combine resources and talents- never did I mention it would a colonial relationship...there would be no way the Mexicans or Canadians would go along with that. The simple fact of the matter is, with the resources of Mexico, Canada, and the US combined, we would more than give Europe a run for its money.

Two things Tom.

I don't have any issue with people working together for mutual benefit, but I would be interested in the Canadian view. Equality seems difficult when one is ten times bigger than the other.

Secondly, why look at it in terms of "giving Europe a run for its money". There could be much irony in that choice of words. But why see it as a competition?

 

[Jason]

That's why the Lisbon treaty has an exit clause. Nothing is keeping countries in the EU if they don't want to stay in.

A good point and an issue which will certainly be discussed in the UK. In his speech rejecting a post-ratification vote on the Lisbon Treaty, Cameron put forward the possibility of a UK referendum on something during the UK parliament after next (about 6-9 years' time). Now he wasn't quite clear whether this something would be a referendum on EU membership (he's a politician!) but this would seem to be the only sort of referendum we could have. He has also set out that renegotiation of Lisbon to provide opt outs for the UK is a requirement. I know the EU response is that the other states won't agree. The reality is that a Conservative led UK could be very awkward.

I think the Conservatives are setting up a process leading to a referendum in say six or seven years' time. Presumably the idea is to manage the UK economy in such a way that a withdrawal is possible. I also think that as we get into an eletion campaign the Conservatives are going to face a lot of voter pressure to bring forward a referendum to within the next parliament.

 

[mattflanders]

He has also set out that renegotiation of Lisbon to provide opt outs for the UK is a requirement. I know the EU response is that the other states won't agree. The reality is that a Conservative led UK could be very awkward.

I think the Conservatives are setting up a process leading to a referendum in say six or seven years' time. Presumably the idea is to manage the UK economy in such a way that a withdrawal is possible. I also think that as we get into an eletion campaign the Conservatives are going to face a lot of voter pressure to bring forward a referendum to within the next parliament.

I don't think any other EU-members will accept any more opt-outs for the UK. There's noone like Thatcher who can scare the others into giving refunds anymore.

I don't think the Conservatives won't ever mention that referendum again, after they're elected. Even they aren't Eurosceptic enough, they know well enough that leaving the EU means giving up the UK's position of a powerful member state and still having to swallow any European regulation the EU passes. Not accepting EU regulations on products means not trading those products with the EU.

 

[Jason]

Even they aren't Eurosceptic enough.

Conservative views on Europe are incredibly complex. I think you are absolutely right Mattflanders that they are not simply all out Eurosceptics. I think it is possible to unpick several strands of thought:

1) There certainly is an extreme Eurosceptic view. This has significant popular support in the UK so the view matters at elections. Additionally the people who belong to the Conservative Associations that select (and deselect) Conservative candidates for MP tend to be of this view. Many in the Conservative party and in the country see leaving the EU as a moral imperative that goes beyond any possible considerations of economics. The Lisbon Treaty (and therefore the EU) is a betrayal of Britain, is abhorrent, is anti-democratic - you get the flavour.

2) There is a Conservative view which is very positive towards the European ideal recognising an economic argument and seeing a united Europe as a way of preventing both war in Europe (the original treaty of Rome) and the way of righting the divisions of the iron curtain. In the end it is the Conservatives who took the UK into the EEC.

These two views have traditionally divided the Conservative party. However there is now a third Conservative view which ultimately unites Conservative thought and presents a stunning new vision for Europe. This is set out on the Conservative's website The Conservative Party It includes plenty of pro-Europe language from (1) - and at the start of the poicy statement. But also it calls UK ratification of Lisbon a "betrayal of democracy", sees Lisbon as a "problem" and speaks of the "steady and unaccountable intrusion of the EU into almost every aspect of our lives". It includes a promise that Britain will never be a part of a federal Europe. And it sets out three areas where the Conservatives require modifications to the Lisbon Treaty:

• A full opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights (CFR).
• Greater protection against EU encroachment into the UK's Criminal Justice System.
• Restoration of national control over social and employment legislation.

Cameron wants every nation in Europe to sign through modifications to Lisbon. He knows this is going to be a battle. And he knows that at every stage in the battle Conservative popularity in the UK will go higher. But the new Conservative approach to Europe goes further than just the UK demanding these modifications. The language will be that these modifications should be available to all member states - and many member states will want them. Certainly the people of many (most?) member states will want them.

The Conservatives unite views (1) and (2) by putting forward a new vision of Europe as a confederation of sovereign states within a community of nations. This is not a Euro-Sceptic view. It is a positive vision for Europe but one which is completely at odds with the Lisbon Treaty. What the Conservatives are offering is a clash of ideologies, a clash of world views. And the Conservatives will present themselves as the most pro-European vision, articulating a vision for Europe that reflects the views of the peoples of Europe. By contrast the views of Sarkozy and Merkel will be presented as tired and failing federalist delusions that need to be dismantled before they do more damage.

Assuming a Cameron-led Britain after the next election EU politics is going to get lively.

 

[Drifterwood]

Assuming a Cameron-led Britain after the next election EU politics is going to get lively.

FFS another fucking Third Way.

I'll go with it, but with my eyes open that it will lead ultimately to where Europe has to go.

The French aren't going to like it.

I never understood why the Germans give the French so much respect. But then I'm a Gallois not a Frank :biggrin1:

 

[TomCat84]

Two things Tom.

I don't have any issue with people working together for mutual benefit, but I would be interested in the Canadian view. Equality seems difficult when one is ten times bigger than the other.

Secondly, why look at it in terms of "giving Europe a run for its money". There could be much irony in that choice of words. But why see it as a competition?

1) Population
-Germany: 82 million


-Malta: 405,000

So, The population of the largest country in the EU, Germany, is about 202 times that of the smallest, Malta.

2) Why see it as a competition? Why do you even need to ask that?

 

[798686]

The Conservatives unite views (1) and (2) by putting forward a new vision of Europe as a confederation of sovereign states within a community of nations. This is not a Euro-Sceptic view. It is a positive vision for Europe but one which is completely at odds with the Lisbon Treaty. What the Conservatives are offering is a clash of ideologies, a clash of world views. And the Conservatives will present themselves as the most pro-European vision, articulating a vision for Europe that reflects the views of the peoples of Europe.

I'd be ok with this.

 

[Jason]

Quote from Greek PM George Papandreou yesterday on the Greek financial woes:

"We must close the credibility gap to survive as a sovereign and cohesive nation".

"Cohesive" is straightforward. Greek society is pulling apart right now, and the Greek government does have to take steps to ensure that it is cohesive. But "sovereign"? The Greek PM is talking about a possible loss of sovereignty for Greece. He's looked into his crystal ball and seen that one future for Greece is one where tax and spending - the Greek budget and therefore Greek domestic policy - is set by EU financiers, basically by the ECB. In this scenario the Greek government has the powers of a town council.

The Irish budget yesterday was grim. 6% CUT in public sector salaries, cuts in many benefits (including child benefit), lots of pain. The good news is that it should work and should bring Ireland into some sort of financial sanity within a few years. Greece is in a much worse position than Ireland but is proposing increased public sector salaries, increased benefits and less tax on the poor (and in Greece tax avoidance by the middle income and rich is well developed, so this means less tax). I see no prospect of Greece closing the "credibility gap".

Ireland has broad public support for the budgetary cuts. There is pretty general recognition that Ireland is Direland and that it has to be done. In Greece the government has massive public disorder problems because it is not increasing salaries and expenditure as quickly as people would like. If the EU imposes on Greece salary cuts, benefit cuts and tax hikes (therefore an Ireland style budget) what are going to be the law and order consequences? How would Greece and the EU deal with the high level of strikes, rioting and civil disobedience that may be anticipated?

I think Greece is facing the prospect of imperial colonisation by the EU as the first directly governed region of the legal personality which is the EU.

Today brings poor economic news for Spain. Whatever solution the EU finds for Greece could be rolled out also for Spain, Italy and Portugal. And perhaps for the countries of the former eastern Europe.

I know the UK economic news is far from good. The difference we have in the UK is that our currency can devalue and we can print money - both safety valves. We can run a higher budgetary defecit that the Eurozone and get away with it. Whatever anyone thinks of our budget yesterday neither the government or the opposition feel that Britain is facing a loss of sovereignty over our fiscal woes.

 

[798686]

Interesting and really sobering, Jase. Has anyone in the general media picked up on the possible implications of this situation?

 

[Drifterwood]

1) Population
-Germany: 82 million


-Malta: 405,000

So, The population of the largest country in the EU, Germany, is about 202 times that of the smallest, Malta.

2) Why see it as a competition? Why do you even need to ask that?

Do you think that Malta and Germany are comparable to the US and Canada?

I need to ask because you made the statement and I don't see things like that, so I wished to understand you POV.

 

[Jason]

Interesting and really sobering, Jase. Has anyone in the general media picked up on the possible implications of this situation?

This story is in the news in as much as google picks it up and all the quality papers have reported it in small print somewhere in the middle. But it is interesting that it gets so little coverage.

Part of the story is that Greece concealed the level of defecit through creative accounting so that this story has now broken suddenly. EU finance ministers have said that Greece will not need an IMF bail out (ie they feel that this is a possibility) and they have said that they think Greece will rebalance its budget over a period of years (as Ireland is doing). The EU response still seems to be business as usual. Yet there are real issues:

• Greece concealed the level of the defecit. Is the present figure right?
• The government was elected as recently as October with a pledge to increase public spending.
• The Greek stock market is jittery (down 16% so far this week) and there are issues about Greece's ability to issue bonds to cover its debt.
• There are signs that the Greek contagion is spreading, particularly to Spain.
• The EU appears to have accepted that the EU will bail out Greece. It can indeed bail out Greece if the citizens of other Eurozone countries pay - but probably not a bigger country, for example Spain.

Greece has promised the following (to be detailed in a January budget): "public expenditure is being cut by roughly 10 percent on the operating budget and 25 percent on consumption expenditures". If someone knows better than I do then please correct me as I'm more familiar with the term "personal consumption expenditure" (and I'm even wondering if there is a translation issue with the quote) but I take it that "consumption expenditures" by a government means public service expenditure. Greece is proposing a 10% cut in the whole budget and 25% in public services. OUCH! Does anyone seriously think this is possible? Ireland has brought in a ground breaking budget which makes a 6% cut to public sector salaries (which is less than a 6% cut on total public service costs) and some (small) cuts in benefits - and this is a truly amazing, hard-hitting budget made possible because the public have accepted the economic logic of Direland. Greece couldn't do this. The cuts proposed - which are far, far greater - in my view just aren't going to happen. If the government tries then Greece will degenerate into strikes and chaos. If by some miracle they make the new system work (foreign troops keeping the peace in Athens?) then Greece is looking at decades of poverty with sky high unemployment.

So the EU has its new dawn with the Lisbon Treaty. This problem is strictly a Euro-zone problem rather than a Treaty of Lisbon problem, though it could be said that it shows up the inadequacies of Lisbon. What does the EU plan to do about this EU-created mess?

My personal view is that the solution which avoids a nightmare for Greece is for the EU to work with Greece for a managed Greek withdrawal from the Euro. What other options are there?

 

[TomCat84]

Do you think that Malta and Germany are comparable to the US and Canada?

I need to ask because you made the statement and I don't see things like that, so I wished to understand you POV.

Uh, I was using an analogy. So how come the population difference between the US and Canada matters, but not Germany and Malta?

 

[TomCat84]

Fine, let's use a better example: Austria. The population of Austria is approximately 8.36 million. Germany's population is 9.8x that of Austria, and Germany has a history of actually conquering Austria. (See: WWII) So I don't think your POV holds any water.

 

[Drifterwood]

Fine, let's use a better example: Austria. The population of Austria is approximately 8.36 million. Germany's population is 9.8x that of Austria, and Germany has a history of actually conquering Austria. (See: WWII) So I don't think your POV holds any water.

I think your example of the USA, Canada and Mexico, is more like Great Britiain, England, Scotland and Wales, than Europe. Europe is more like the US. Whilst some of your states are much bigger etc than others, compared to the whole, no state is dominant.

 

[alpinepaul]

"Germany has a history of actually conquering Austria. (See: WWII)"

sorry, but that is not true. Austria as the 8-million-Austria did not exist before 1918/19, before that the (Austrian)Habsburg Monarchy ruled over huge parts of Middle Europe. They had wars with Germany but had wars with almost every other country too.

The annexation of (the small Republic) Austria in 1938 had been wildly welcome in Austria (although it was no complete free decision), and almost the whole World did not protest against the Annexation.

And i do not get what these comparisions tell us about the future of EUrope?

 

[eurotop40]

... Whilst some of your states are much bigger etc than others, compared to the whole, no state is dominant.

That is very true and one of the EU's great merits (the fact that Germany has a couple of more seats in Strasbourg is obviously related to their population - hey, they are 80 millions and the largest economy, so I guess they can say a little bit more (but not TOO much please :wink).

 

[TomCat84]

I think your example of the USA, Canada and Mexico, is more like Great Britiain, England, Scotland and Wales, than Europe. Europe is more like the US. Whilst some of your states are much bigger etc than others, compared to the whole, no state is dominant.

That is not true. California is pretty much dominant. If California were its own country, wed be around the 8th largest economy in the world. I wasnt suggesting a federation of the three countries- but something more akin to the EU- a confederation....a looser union of seperate countries.

 

[TomCat84]

"Germany has a history of actually conquering Austria. (See: WWII)"

sorry, but that is not true. Austria as the 8-million-Austria did not exist before 1918/19, before that the (Austrian)Habsburg Monarchy ruled over huge parts of Middle Europe. They had wars with Germany but had wars with almost every other country too.

The annexation of (the small Republic) Austria in 1938 had been wildly welcome in Austria (although it was no complete free decision), and almost the whole World did not protest against the Annexation.

And i do not get what these comparisions tell us about the future of EUrope?

SO because they had no problem with it, that makes it ok to annex an entire country? The whole world didnt protest against the annexation of Czhekoslovakia (spelling?) either did they? Chamberlain called it "peace in our time."

 

[alpinepaul]

SO because they had no problem with it, that makes it ok to annex an entire country? The whole world didnt protest against the annexation of Czhekoslovakia (spelling?) either did they? Chamberlain called it "peace in our time."

still Germany did not conquer Austria (your example of whatever).

and the European project is to overcome that desastrous history ...