New Era Dawns for EU

dandelion

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The central illustration is that whereas a dollar reduction in personal income in one of the US Federal Reserve areas triggers a decrease in Federal taxes of .34 cents, and Federal transfers in of .06. So, the net effect to the region is a .60 decrease in income for each less dollar of income. There is a built in buffer. By comparison in the EU, which has a small fiscal policy/budget, a one euro decrease in income results in a one half of one cent decrease in tax payments and no federal transfers. Thus a one euro decline in income is basically a one-for-one relationship, as there are no internal financial offsets. It is the elasticity of offsets that provide automatic stabilizers to preserve macroeconomic stabilization. Bottom line: the ECB needs a bigger economic shock absorber, and the political authority to get and use one.

You seem to be saying that because the EU does not tax eg Greece, then when Greek incomes fall they do not pay less tax to the EU. There might be a modest increase in EU spending in Greece because it is now measurably poorer, but under current mechanisms this would be small and slow to arrive (years).

I am not sure where this is getting us. In your example there is a modest redistribution of funds into a locally affected region, but this is still small compared to the loss. Ok, the loss suffered by locals is only 60% of what it might have been, but then their original income was only 66% of what it might have been because they had to pay this tax in the first place. The % reduction in their available income is much the same as the reduction in their pre-tax income, say more like 90% of the loss to them, not 60%. You overstate the effect on local available spending.

This still does not address the issue of ancient Rome. I suspect they did not go in for clever tricks like tax as a percentage of income. Rather I expect it would be a flat rate 2 cisterces tax on a wagon load of wine. So in fact the % taxation might automatically increase in times of hardship in the worst affected regions. Yet despite this the empire rolled along using a centralised currency. The question here is whether it is unsustainable for one region to share a currency with others which are doing better or worse. I don't believe your example demonstrates how the Romans managed to continue using a central currency for so long despite not having this adaptive mechanism, or perhaps having a tendency to automatically tax falling incomes by a higher percentage.
 
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I thought he was saying that when incomes drop in America - the tax actually falls by a lower amount; whereas, in the EU, tax revenue drops proportionately to reduictions in income. Suggesting the US has better ability to withstand a reduction in average wage.

Could be wrong tho. :p
 
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Germany's in favour of a European Army, then.

Seems Prodi/Strauss-Kahn's comment that Lisbon was the beginning not the end of further integration was correct...

'Speaking on Saturday (6 February) at the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering for high-level discussions on security and defence, Mr Westerwelle [German Foreign Minister] said the EU's new institutional rules, the Lisbon Treaty, are "not the end but, rather, the beginning for common security and defence policy."'
 
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Drifterwood

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Roman coinage had an intrinsic value in itself, copper, silver, gold; though never equal to the face value. The value of the coins were debased at various times. The Romans also used a series of levies for specific needs, Military being one thing as continued into the Middle Ages.

So there was a certain amount of trust (credit) in the redeemable value, but nothing like our modern system of paper and other bond instruments whose notional value is based almost entirely on trust.

There was a great series on the BBC not so long ago on the History of Money. Well worth a watch if you can find it.
 

Jason

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Today we have the following sorts of currency unions:
1) The Eurozone
2) Unions which are colonial legacies. I can think of just three: the West African Franc, Central African Franc, East Caribbean Dollar. These are oddities, not directly comparable to a major currency union.
3) Colonial currency unions. Thus the pound is used on the Falkland Islands, the rand in Swaziland. Basically the small territories have to do what they are told.

There are about two dozen twentieth century currency unions which no longer exist. I suppose it is possible that some of them ran their course and were simply wound down, but most failed, painfully.

I think the point remains that no currency union is going to work long-term (or even medium term) without a full political union. What we have in the Euro and the EU right now is not stable. The intention of the European project was that by now we would be far further down the road to complete unification, and furthermore it was thought that introducing the single currency would drive this process precisely because it was essential for stability. Right now we are not there. Either the EU nations very quickly agree to a transfer of all tax and spend powers to Brussels or the Euro fractures.
 

Jason

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Just found the following from David Cameron - in a speech Monday 8th February:

“We will push power down not just from the government to Parliament but from Whitehall to communities; from the state to citizens; from Brussels to Britain; from judges to the people; from bureaucracy to democracy.”

Curiously he seems to be paraphrasing Daniel Hannan, Conservative MEP and an extreme Euro-sceptic, who wrote in his book "The Plan":

“We need to shift power from the executive to the legislature, from Brussels to Westminster, from Whitehall to local councils, from quangos to elected representatives, from the state to the citizen”.

I don't think this is coincidence - Cameron is sending out a message. And I bet in the backrooms of the EUrocracy the Cameron message is being whispered very clearly.
 

D_Tully Tunnelrat

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You seem to be saying that because the EU does not tax eg Greece, then when Greek incomes fall they do not pay less tax to the EU.

I am not sure where this is getting us. In your example there is a modest redistribution of funds into a locally affected region, but this is still small compared to the loss.

This still does not address the issue of ancient Rome.

I'm no economics expert, but I'll give it a shot.

The real issue that the specific illustration was trying to address is what do you do when you have an imbalance in payments but a single currency? That is to say, Spain, Italy, and Greece live beyond their means, and thus borrow about 800B euro per year, while the Netherlands, Germany, and France save about 2B euro. Yet all have the same currency, so how to create one fiscal policy for all? Most believe you cannot.

What the illustration, which was actually from Sachs and Martin, was attempting to illustrate is that in the US Federal system, where revenue is shared among 9 regions (and the Fed) that respond differently to economic conditions, the ability to re-balance a state, or regions books can go both ways, which is Keynesianism to it's core, but instead of being public/private transfers, it's public/public. So, if income falls in California, the Fed can and does print money, which they can redistribute (stimulus), or lend from the Treasury, via Congress, back to CA to mitigate the decline in tax rolls locally. In CA's case, they have been a long term net donor to the US Treasury, so pay back is actually owed. Obviously this system can be and is abused, but that's another story.

Since the EU has no, or a very small Federal system, yet, there is little revenue sharing (taxation), since it is in fact not one country. Thus, when one region (Greece) is short of funds, there is no mechanism to transfer, or loan them the money to cover the shortfall (other than short term), because they never put anything into the public till in the first place, and neither has any of the more flush countries. So, a decline in Greek national income, was offset by increased national borrowing (from an already high level), which rapidly required higher interest rates, and expensive default swaps, because lenders want greater returns for high levels of debt. The option to cut Greek public spending during a time of falling income, becomes politically unpalatable, and the old debt has to be refinanced now.

If, in order to prevent a run on the euro, the EU ends up backing Greek bonds, as has been suggested over the last two days, then in effect you have an additional wealth transfer from Germany to Greece, as Greece has not been paying it's way for more than a decade, but has used the power of the euro to elevate it's living standard by at least 30%. Maybe the payback never becomes an issue, but the bond guarantee, or even a transfer of capital via Greece's private banks, raises the question of who will pay back the money, if Greece defaults? Will it be the Germans or the Greeks? What was the collateral; Greek national bonds? If it's the Germans, what happens if Spain, etc. need some help as well? Without a built-in system of re-balancing regional payments, all solutions are cobbled together under duress, and each last minute guarantee pushes the EU further down a political path of Federalism, which seems to be the ultimate outcome by design (and which is probably the only way to preserve the currency), but seems not yet fully appreciated by those who still enjoy their sovereignty, and non-Federalist rates of taxation.

As to ancient Rome, they did have the power to levy taxes, and did: 1% on farmland, which increased to 3% during times of war. They also had the cruder system of Empire, which both the UK, and the US have borrowed a few pages from, which is that if you need more money to feed the public and private purse, you go out and raid, or convince (sometimes at the point of sword) the other party/country to give/trade with you, so you can become rich again. The Romans did this so well that they were able to shift their entire tax burden to the provinces, especially Spain with it's silver and gold mines. Not only were they clever enough to do this, but they also put the tax "farming" process (as they called it), up for auction every year, as they taxed not according to individuals, but by communities. The did not care what amount the "tax farmers" (aka Publicani) collected, but only that they give unto Caesar what is Caesar's. After enough complaining by the provinces, a flat tax was eventually implemented by Augustinian, which, due to the cost of empire, ever increased, so much so that Roman farm land was taxed again, inflation increased, and the coinage debased. By the time of Diocletian, a price freeze was declared. The story goes on, but you can see the narrative is not much different than what we have today. Politicians, and the public will always debase a fiat currency because it allows you to have today, what you would otherwise have to go without, if you had to pay with hard currency.
 

B_crackoff

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Blimey 50 pages! Can't read them all, so sorry if I repeat.

Gordon Brown, the President of the EU, & countless internet theorists have been going on a bout the Global government - the New World Order, as Brown has actuall stated & was reported all over the BBC news.

It's a bad thing.Globalisation is the globalisation of poverty. We have a fiat currency literally privately created in the US & other countries, shich allows banksters to create money out of nothing then charge interest on it.

The creation of the One world government will come through these horrendous, idiotic Climate change agreements. Look on the net for the new EU President specifically saying this!

This is why we have currency debasement & inflation - they don't teach this in Economics, & it should be 101.

If I am a country & I create $100 which I loan out at 10%, I am owed $110. There is only $100 in the country - How can I be paid back -you've got it - print more money(as debt), & get paid on that too. So though the amount of value of all the assets was $100, it is now $110+ Geddit?! We call that inflation. And inflation is a form of taxation, because if you don't deploy your savings, year on out the purchasing power is eroded.

Wall St gave more to Obama than to anyother prior president -he's in their pockets, & look at every other politician in the world - they're all in bankers pockets, either from direct financing or from threats of currency runs, or financing opponents, &other paid activists in Industry, bureaucracy, & unions.

I won't even go into the fraud of fractional reserve lending, where for every $ deposited 25, 30, or 100 times more can be lent out!

I will tell you that you didn't ever borrow money from a bank to buy your house. Your signature on a piece of paper magically created the funds, & interest that you now owe!

The history of money program neglected to mention much of this! The fiat system of capitalism is doomed to fail, because ultimately those creating the currency OWN ALL THE ASSETS!

All of this talk about cap & trade etc, is a ruse, a smokescreen. Having practically put the Western world into bondage with unpayable amounts of debt, they seek to extend it into the 2nd & 3rd world.

The EU like Communist Russia, has an assortment of quango's & bodies directly responsible for running our lives, which are wholly unaccountable for their actions.

They haven't even had their own finances signed off as true & fair for 20 years, & whistleblowers are sacked without recourse.

So are these lackeys of the banksters going to be a benevolent regime.

Wake up.
 

dandelion

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The real issue that the specific illustration was trying to address is what do you do when you have an imbalance in payments but a single currency? That is to say, Spain, Italy, and Greece live beyond their means, and thus borrow about 800B euro per year, while the Netherlands, Germany, and France save about 2B euro. Yet all have the same currency, so how to create one fiscal policy for all? Most believe you cannot.
Perhaps I am naive. what does anyone do who is living beyond their means? Either stop and come to terms, or default. That NL G and F may be saving money each year is nor directly related to S, I and G borrowing it. If the chineese have been lending to Greece, well tough luck for them.

What the illustration, which was actually from Sachs and Martin, was attempting to illustrate is that in the US Federal system, where revenue is shared among 9 regions (and the Fed) that respond differently to economic conditions, the ability to re-balance a state, or regions books can go both ways, which is Keynesianism to it's core, but instead of being public/private transfers, it's public/public. So, if income falls in California, the Fed can and does print money, which they can redistribute (stimulus), or lend from the Treasury, via Congress, back to CA to mitigate the decline in tax rolls locally.
The illustration showed a semi-automatic process for reducing taxation as the prosperity of an area declines. Our discussion is about whether such redistribution becomes essential where a currency is being shared by otherwise autonomous regions. I introduced the Roman empire because it struck me as a centrally controlled state which existed for an impressively long time and which did not use such redistributive measures. Without spending too long investigating this, I think in your reply you are agreeing with this, that basically Rome demanded a certain sum and didnt care how much pain was involved in paying it. This worked quite effectively.

So the question is why everyone is running around saying it would not work now. Greece does not have the option to devalue its currency, but all this means is that does not have the option to give back the same nominal amount on its loans while still giving less value... because the devalued currency would be worth less. Instead it might come to some agreement whereby creditors agree to receive, say, 50% of what is owed. The effect is the same, those people owed money do not get it back. Either way international financiers are not fools and will take into account the situation (ie charge more) on any future loans.

The question is, why exactly would California agree indefinitely to pump more and more money into Florida just because the Floridians refuse to balance their books and live within their means? I do not believe they would. Similarly, nor will other EU states do this for Greece. Why should they? The EU already subsidises Greece (I understand, havnt checked this) and I expect they will make some arrangement, but ultimately Greece will have to sort out its financial affairs. In the end this might just mean they will have to be forced to suffer the pain. That's what happened in Britain in the 80's or so.


If, in order to prevent a run on the euro, the EU ends up backing Greek bonds...
But just why should there be a run on the euro? The point of the way the euro is set up is to decouple the currency from the affairs of individual members. Pundits talking now say that basically there is no 'threat' to the euro. plenty of bankers trying to hype one up so as to make money from anyone using euros. If they can whip up a scare the turbulence will make them money even though there never was any threat, just banks having some fun at our expense.

Greece has not been paying it's way for more than a decade, but has used the power of the euro to elevate it's living standard by at least 30%.
which is why despite doom sayers predictions they are in no hurry to leave it.

Maybe the payback never becomes an issue, but the bond guarantee, or even a transfer of capital via Greece's private banks, raises the question of who will pay back the money, if Greece defaults? Will it be the Germans or the Greeks?
Bond guarantees? surely a contract between the greek government and some banks? nothing to do with any oyher member. The best claim Greeks have to get other EU countries to help is collective embarassment. Though being more serious, we are discounting all the private mechanisms whereby a poor state is subsidised within the EU. Greeks can pop over to Germany, get a job and sent the money home.
 

dandelion

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Just found the following from David Cameron - in a speech Monday 8th February:

“We will push power down not just from the government to Parliament but from Whitehall to communities; from the state to citizens; from Brussels to Britain; from judges to the people; from bureaucracy to democracy.”

funny that, didnt Margaret Thatcher say exactly the same? Didn't Tony Blair? Yet all that happened was exactly the opposite.


I don't think this is coincidence - Cameron is sending out a message.
It seems I am not feeling very conciliatory today. I don't think it coincidence either. Politicians seem to agree it is a message which will encourage people to vote for them. In the vain hope they mean it when their predecessors did not. Likely?
 

Jason

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If, in order to prevent a run on the euro, the EU ends up backing Greek bonds, as has been suggested over the last two days, then in effect you have an additional wealth transfer from Germany to Greece, as Greece has not been paying it's way for more than a decade, but has used the power of the euro to elevate it's living standard by at least 30%. Maybe the payback never becomes an issue, but the bond guarantee, or even a transfer of capital via Greece's private banks, raises the question of who will pay back the money, if Greece defaults? Will it be the Germans or the Greeks? What was the collateral; Greek national bonds? If it's the Germans, what happens if Spain, etc. need some help as well? Without a built-in system of re-balancing regional payments, all solutions are cobbled together under duress, and each last minute guarantee pushes the EU further down a political path of Federalism, which seems to be the ultimate outcome by design (and which is probably the only way to preserve the currency), but seems not yet fully appreciated by those who still enjoy their sovereignty, and non-Federalist rates of taxation.

Today we've had the big meeting and nothing has actually happened.

I think the penny has dropped that Germany cannot support Greece. If Greece today then Portugal tomorrow (literally) and Spain next week. The Eurocrats would love to use this crisis to push the federalist agenda, but I think it is a bridge too far for them. The EU is governed by committees, with secret meetings taking place before the real meeting, and the process is slow and ultimately leaderless. I don't think there is the mechanism or the leadership to federalise at a speed needed to respond to the Greek crisis.

What we've got is a vague hope that Greece will do the impossible with an austerity policy and that the markets will be ever so polite and considerate and give Greece time. It won't happen. Greece is stuffed and the Eurozone is stuffed - and lots more. Currency unions without political/fiscal unions NEVER work.

The potential for leadership is within the nation states. It is possible that Greece or Portugal or Ireland might decide they are better outside the Euro. It is also possible that Germany might decide that life is better outside - and Germany has fully developed plans for the mechanism by which it could appreciate out of the Euro, complete with transitional arrangements and proofs for the new DM bank notes.

1st Jan 2009 I predicted on this board that a country would crash out of the Euro in 2009. I was wrong - but the idea of a crash out is now looking possible. I don't think the Euro is going to look the same by the end of 2010 - I think it will at best be somewhat tarnished.
 
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First 'European Conference for a Work-Free Sunday' was held in Brussels last week, supported by over 70 organisations including Trade Unions, churches, etc. Basically to lobby the Commission to adopt Sunday as a Europe-wide, legal, day of rest. The appeal has been signed by a third of Euro-deputies.

Hmmm...the idea was first floated with the Working-Time directive, with the idea of giving citizens at least one day in 7 rest. But...was overruled by the European Court of Justice as having insufficient grounds to be enshrined in law.

I'm pretty much against this idea - the 35hr week on the continent already guarantees a certain amount of rest - and aside from the economic ramifications that such a move would have (less productivity) - especially in the current climate...it just seems like a back-door attempt to enforce traditional Sunday-worship as practised (and often enforced) by Europe down throught the centuries. In my view it would not be compatible with all the different cultures across the present-day EU, and could be seen as discriminatory against certain groups who rest on other days.

I know I'm being very previous on this issue...has anyone else got any views on it?
 
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Jason

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Very many people in the UK like shops to be open on Sundays. Towns are busy. Buses run a reasonable service (because there are people using them). If the Conservatives get elected we will even have GP cover on a Sunday. The way forward seems to be more flexibility in when people work (for everyone's benefit, particularly inclusing the workers) so that we can get 7 day cover for services both essential and convenient. A lot of my work is on Saturday which definitely has an upside in that I can be around the home during the Mon-Fri period, great for deliveries, dealing with public sector bodies that are only open Mon-Fri.

Of course the needs of workers and their families have to be considered - I know its not all rosy. But the idea of going back to the sort of Sabbath wakes we had up to the 1980s is just ghastly.
 
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The way forward seems to be more flexibility in when people work (for everyone's benefit, particularly including the workers. Of course the needs of workers and their families have to be considered - I know its not all rosy.
I agree. The UK isn't happy about the 35hr working time limit anyway (as we still cling to our 48hr opt-out), so I doubt we'd be happy with any further restrictions.
 
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But the idea of going back to the sort of Sabbath wakes we had up to the 1980s is just ghastly.
I think Europe is still very hung up on this - especially religious countries such as Ireland, Italy, Poland, Hungary, and Greece.

I agree from a family-oriented point of view that it might be helpful to have at least one day a week off work, guaranteed by law. But, it would be a disaster to prescribe that it has to be Sunday - and ban anyone from working on it. That could only open the door for the Catholic Church to capitalise at some point, as a Europe-wide day of rest - which would then make it difficult for non-Christians. They already constantly encourage Europe to look to its religious heritage, partially as an attempt to keep Europe as a Christian (and preferably Catholic) only club.
 

123scotty

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I agree. The UK isn't happy about the 35hr working time limit anyway (as we still cling to our 48hr opt-out), so I doubt we'd be happy with any further restrictions.

the 35 hour working week is not a limit it only means that hours worked over 35 hours is then paid at time and a half. i think the 35 hour week is a bit low but 48 hour is to high. people should be able to work as they see fit as longs they cannot be forced into it. like low paid workers and service industry workers.