Obama 10pt. gap in poll

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ledroit, Oct 13, 2008.

  1. ledroit

    ledroit New Member

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    Check out this pic, esp the last sentence.

    "Powered chiefly by the public's economic concerns, Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936. "

    Full story here.

    But I am still worried about McCain's campaign trying to re-fuel racist hatreds, and sending out Palin as the new George Wallace.

    Where are the pastors and politicians in his "religious base" who are reminding people about the attacks on Jesus precisely because he associated with prostitutes and thieves? Where are these "christians" pointing out the obvious, that McCain & Palin are doing exactly the same thing, for exactly the same reasons? If the GOP base is religious, shouldn't they have a kind of instant, allergic, very negative reaction to anything that even comes close to this kind of truly vicious behavior?

    More importantly, if they are truly serious about the US, and serious about the middle east, or terrorism, don't they realize that inflaming tribal hatreds and encouraging tribal warfare is the best way to break down a diverse society? Isn't this what is happening with Sunnis & Shias? Isn't this what happened in Bosnia, Somalia, in Germany in the 30s?

    How can they be serious about patriotism, or serious about the US and the complexity of its social and political problems, and encourage us to engage in the same behavior that has ruined other countries?
     

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  2. naughty

    Gold Member

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    Workin' up a good pot of mad!
    Unfortunately,

    Both sides have things on their platforms that make it impossible to go with everything that either party supports. So most people seem to pick and chose which issues are most pressing for them and hope for the best. Watching and listening, many that I have spoken to (religious righters) that support McCain are not happy with the attacks one way or another but they support the ticket's stand on abortion, etc (issues that they feel fly in the face of biblical mandates)

    I consider myself a Christian, but after watching Senator McCain over a number of years (not just in this election cycle) I felt that he didnt stand firm enough on certain things (for expediency) and was not going to vote for him. I think his running mate, Govenor Palin put the nails in his coffin for me.

    I dont know what type of president either of the four candidates (Given the opportunity) would make. I think that is something that we can only see when they get into office and are faced with the issues as they come. I just hope that we dont see a bloodbath over this election. We are dealing with enough drama in our lives already.
     
  3. sargon20

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    I LOVE this one:

    • (McCane) is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about.
    Continual character attacks but no debating the issues. Republican strategists know if they debate the issues they lose. So they grab any piece of slime they can and toss it.


    And this one:

      • The low ratings continue to have a dampening effect on McCain: More than half of voters, 51 percent, said that McCain, if elected, would largely continue to lead the country in the direction Bush has, and those voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama.
    I can't believe this number isn't higher. OF COURSE he's going to lead in the same direction as Bush since if he wins he would be bound by the ideaology that government is bad and business is good. Just step out of the way government and let business do it's thing.
     
    #3 sargon20, Oct 13, 2008
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2008
  4. Freddie53

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    I read the entire article. When looking at the individual questions I am surprised that McCain did as well as he did. The one question that gives McCain is greatest worry is the enthusiasm. Obama has a very high level of his supporters that are very enthusiastic about him. McCain has a very low number of supporters that are enthusiastic about McCain.

    This is McCain's nightmare. If the Obama crowd of very enthusiastic votes in record numbers and the some McCain supporters who are lukewarm for McCain stay at home election day, then that ten point lead could stretch out to fifteen points.

    Keep in mind that this is how Bush won the last two elections. The religious right turned out in very high numbers for Bush, enough to raise Bush's percentages just enough to win the electoral college.

    I was for Hillary. My support for Obama was very lukewarm at first, but as time has progressed, by support has gone from lukewarm to very enthusiastic. Meanwhile, my very mild favorable opinion of McCain has taken a nosedive since the Republican convention. This summer I respected and liked John McCain as a person but disagreed with some of his positions. My level of respect for McCain has dropped significantly.

    Meanwhile, my level of respect for Obama has grown. I've gone from not sure if he had the experience and judgment to be president to being sure that he has the judgment and vision to be president. I wish he had a little more experience as Senator. However some senators have 30 years experience and are much more qualified to be president now than thirty years ago. Some senators have served thirty individual years as first year experiences. They aren't any more prepared to be president now than they were thirty years ago.
     
    #4 Freddie53, Oct 13, 2008
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2008
  5. sargon20

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    McCain has adopted a 'anything-to-win' campaign strategy it seems. Though I don't know if that's why your respect for him has slipped. It is distressing to see him using the same slimeball tactics that Bush's cronies used in 2000. Disgusting.
     
  6. B_FruitFly

    B_FruitFly New Member

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    The media makes things so obvious. Kerry - Bush anyone?
     
  7. Flashy

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    just remember all you obama-philes...it ain't over till it's over...

    i would say you guys should not get too cocky just yet.

    as an independent, who won't vote for either of these clowns, i personally would find it hysterical to see this happen to the cocky Obama-philes:



    Could the 'Bradley Effect' Hurt Obama?


    CNN
    posted: 4 HOURS 18 MINUTES AGO




    (Oct. 14) - Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain, polls show, but those numbers could be deceiving if the "Bradley effect" comes into play.
    The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982.
    Does Race Matter?
    [​IMG]

    David Kohl, AP
    6 photos
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama enjoys a pretty big lead over his rival in national polls now, but some experts wonder if he might suffer from the "Bradley effect" come Election Day.

    (Note: Please disable your pop-up blocker)











    Exit polls showed Bradley leading by a wide margin, and the Democrat thought it would be an early election night.
    But Bradley and the polls were wrong. He lost to Republican George Deukmejian.
    The theory was that polling was wrong because some voters, who did not want to appear bigoted, said they voted for Bradley even though they did not.
    "People will usually tell you how they voted after the election, but we found in the Bradley campaign ... that people were actually not telling us who they voted for," said Charles Henry, who researched Bradley's election.
    The Bradley effect is also called the "Wilder effect," after Douglas Wilder, Virginia's former governor. He won by just one-tenth of a percent, but as he pointed out to CNN, "people forget -- in the exit polls, I was still double-digits ahead."
    According to CNN's latest poll of polls, Obama is leading McCain by 8 percentage points, 50 to 42.
    Some analysts say the race could be much closer or even tied if the Bradley effect is factored in. iReport.com: iReporter pleads with voters to 'stop the racism'
    "It leaves a question mark over this race, and we won't have the final answer until the votes are counted," said David Gergen, a senior political analyst for CNN.

    But there could be an opposite effect, Wilder said.



    "There's going to be a reverse Wilder or Bradley effect. ... There are some Republicans who are not going to say out front that they're going to be voting for Obama, but they're going to be, because the economy is what's driving people to consider what's in their best interest," he said.
    Some analysts say the Bradley effect can account for 6 percentage points against an African-American candidate.
    Michelle Obama told CNN's Larry King that a lot has changed since Bradley lost.
    "That was several decades ago, and I think there's been growth and movement," she said. "I just believe that the issues are going to weigh in people's hearts more so as they go into the voting booths this time around."
    Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown said last week that he thinks the Bradley effect could cost Obama several battleground states -- and possibly the presidency.
    Race "is still a problem in this country," Brown told CNN. "It goes away when there are other troubles that are more challenging, and right now, whether or not we survive in the economy is more challenging. But race could rear its ugly head. I just hope it doesn't before November 4."
    In the past 15 years or so, there's been no indication in the polls that the Bradley effect has been a factor in statewide races.
    Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst, said that if there is racism in this year's election, it's probably already showing up in the polls. And Keating Holland, CNN's polling director, pointed out another important caveat:
    "We've never had a black presidential candidate as a major nominee, so the polls don't have any history at all when it comes to national elections," he said.

    © 2008 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    2008-10-14 09:29:45
     
  8. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

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    Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter up until 5 days before the election.
     
  9. STYLYUNG

    STYLYUNG New Member

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    I'm sure that the US does not want Obama's Mrs.
     
    #9 STYLYUNG, Oct 14, 2008
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2008
  10. Industrialsize

    Staff Member Moderator Gold Member

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    And what leads you to the conclusion that the USA doesn't want Michelle Obama(that's her name) as first lady??????
     
  11. Flashy

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    true.

    and REagan won 50.7% to 41% and Anderson and Clark took the other 7.7%
     
  12. Flashy

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    I don't....but that is because i don't want Obama as president

    i don't think much of Cindy McCain and don't want her husband either.
     
  13. mindseye

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    Honestly, the Washington Post is crap, as far as statistics go. They may have him ahead in some poll of the nationwide popular vote, but in their state-by-state analysis, they're just wildly messed up.

    First of all, they have a whopping 173 electoral votes listed in the "swing state" category, which they've allocated to neither candidate. But the way they've allocated the swing states is completely haphazard. For example:


    • In Maine, Obama leads by +7.6%, and WaPo has designated that a "Lean Democratic" state. In Pennsylvania, Obama leads by +13.4%, but they've labeled that a "swing state", even though the margin is almost twice as wide.
    • Similarly, but not as dramatically, Washington (state), Obama +8.0, is "Lean Democratic", while Minnesota, Obama +8.3, is a "swing state".
    • The "bias" -- if you can call this disjointed mess a bias -- goes both ways: North Dakota (McCain +3.3) is "Lean Republican", while Indiana (McCain +3.8) is a "swing state".
     
  14. Flashy

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    indeed, i agree...most of this stuff is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off base.

    ultimately, i don't think with all the methodology, different polls, strategies, averages, margins of error mean squat, and these people really do not have any clue what they are talking about with regards to true accuracy.
     
  15. Industrialsize

    Staff Member Moderator Gold Member

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    I agree.....polling is an art that can be skewed. When lookin at a National Tracking poll, be mindful of whether the numbers are LIKELY voters or REGISTERED voters. More important is exactly how and by what method does the pollster determine who a "Likely" voter is. Good pollsters will tell you their methodology. One of the most common ways to call someone a "Likely" voter is if they have voted in the past. This method has the effect of seriously UNDER polling first time voters. Then there is a problem that effects all pollsters who do their polling by phone. They do NOT call cell phones. It is becoming more common, especially among young people, to NOT have a landline and only use a cell phone. So NONE of the pollsters are catching this group.
     
  16. trumasseur

    trumasseur New Member

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    It's like so many things in life, we get comfortable and when the world around us progresses we react with shock and awe to things we knew were inevitable. This is so much not about what is on the surface, which is what so many respond too.
    And how come no one is asking how 'equipped' our next president is? lol
     
  17. vince

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    It's possible this race could tighten up significantly in three weeks.

    There could be an national security incident, which would play into McCain's so-called foreign policy strength.

    If Wall street keeps rebounding, this credit crisis will become yesterday's news by election day, which doesn't help the Dems.

    It ain't over 'til it's over.
     
  18. sargon20

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    Sorry but there's FAR more wrong with the economy than the credit crisis.

    • Stagnant wages
    • Foreclosures
    • Affordable health care
    • Rising unemployment
    • High fuel prices
    • Growing food prices
    The list can go on.
     
    #18 sargon20, Oct 14, 2008
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2008
  19. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

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    • Stagnant wages - economic downturn, government regulation
    • Foreclosures - Thanks Clinton and Community Reinvestment Act; Acorn
    • Affordable health care - Thanks John Edwards (whore) and million dollar lawsuits vs. insurance companies
    • Rising unemployment - thanks Frank, Raines, Clinton
    • High fuel prices - thanks Environmentalists Gore, Clinton
    • Growing food prices - thanks again all of the above
     
  20. vince

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    |Right... It's all the fault of Democratic politicians. None of this belongs to the Bush admin, their appointees, the Republicans who controlled Congress for 6 of the last 8 eight years, commodity speculators or the foolish people who signed up for mortgages they could never hope to pay.

    Get a grip.
     
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