Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ledroit, Sep 13, 2008.

  1. ledroit

    ledroit New Member

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    Emory University News Release:
    Sep. 9, 2008
    Election Forecast Predicts Obama in November

    'Time for Change' model has predicted popular vote winner for past 20 years

    Emory University political scientist and polling expert Alan Abramowitz has crunched the numbers for his presidential election forecast and has found in the data a potentially decisive win for the Democrats. His "time for change" model predicts that Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama will win the majority of the national major party popular vote: 54.3 percent vs. 45.7 percent for Sen. John McCain.

    A popular vote margin of this magnitude would almost certainly translate into an overwhelming majority in the Electoral College, Abramowitz says. His forecast has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points or less in every presidential election since 1988.

    article

    What do you think about this?
     
  2. Alyssa

    Alyssa New Member

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    I hope it is accurate. lol

    The prospect of a McSame/Palin administration scares me to death.
     
  3. Notaguru2

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    Dovetails nicely with Bill Clinton's prediction on the 12th;
    AP - Before reporters were ushered out, Clinton was asked where he sees the race between Obama and McCain.

    "I predict that Senator Obama will win and win pretty handily," he said.
     
  4. D_CountdeGrandePinja

    D_CountdeGrandePinja Account Disabled

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    Please God - these numbers will continue until Nov and then go beyond!

    We need help - no more being bushwacked or bullied!!!!!
     
  5. stratedude

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    That's not even close to what all the most respected polls out there have said in the past couple of days. In fact the tide seems to continue to rise for McCain and your poll is 4 days old.
     
  6. D_Davy_Downspout

    D_Davy_Downspout Account Disabled

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    Repeat after me: National Polls do not reflect General Election Results.

    They are a survey of people who answer their phone.

    Exit polling is a different story.
     
  7. ledroit

    ledroit New Member

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    This is not a poll, it's a forecast.

    McCain got quite a boost from Palin because she's pretty, and no one knows anything about her. Nice distraction from him.

    The key thing in the GOP is not to let people get to know McCain or Palin very much. The GOP can't run on policy, they can't run on the party's performance over the past 30 years on any major issue. So the best they can do is crank up the "outrage media" as loud as possible, and hope Obama can't fight.

    The more people get to know Palin & McCain (not just the romantic images), the harder it is going to be for them to inspire confidence. McCain is worse than Reagan when it comes to keeping facts straight and staying on course in complicated situations. Reagan had a likable personality, whereas McCain has a reputation in DC for just being an abusive bastard with a very bad temper. He flies off the handle very easily, and tries not to show it.

    So I think what you see in the polls right now is just a response to media images that appeal to feelings and fantasies, nothing more.
     
  8. Notaguru2

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    For what it is worth, McSame's convention/Palin bounce that catapulted him 5% ahead of Obama has now evaporated. Boy, those spitballs McCain has been shooting for the last 2 weeks have done wonders! =)

    Gallup Daily: McCain 47%, Obama 45%
     
  9. D_Aston Asstonne

    D_Aston Asstonne Account Disabled

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    Very true!mccain leads obama by nearly 10 points.
     
  10. Notaguru2

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    Maybe in Alaska... lmao
     
  11. Gnobe

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    Latest Rasmussen Ohio poll puts McCain 51% Obama 44%.

    National polls don't reflect the outcome of the election, true, however McCain is actually ahead on some electoral college maps now (including Rasmussens).

     
  12. Notaguru2

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    Yeah, I'm not too concerned. Things will open up after the debates. Until then, these polls are based on spitballs.
     
  13. Industrialsize

    Staff Member Moderator Gold Member

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    I am sooooooooooo looking forward to the Palin/Biden debate........they should make it like the game show Jeopardy. Categories could be Foreign Affairs, Geography, Foreign leaders, Civics etc.
    Governor Palin: I'll take Foreign leaders for 500 Alex.
    Alex Trebek: The current President of Georgia and his predecessor
    Governor Palin: Who are Putin and Gorbachev?
    Alex Trebek: Wrong, Governor Palin, that leaves you with negative 3800 dollars going into Final Jeopardy. Senator Biden, you have 1,300,000 dollars going into Final jeopardy
    -cut to commercial-
     
  14. hot-rod

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    This country is caving in on all sides. Better pull out all your cash from these crooked banks.


    JESUS IS COMING! Look Busy!
     
  15. atomicTIGER

    atomicTIGER New Member

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    Awww don't be scared swettie--if you were here I would hold you close so you wouldn't be scared.
     
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