Obama vs McCain: who wins?

[HyperHulk]

Obama:

Pros: Smart, charismatic, optimist, energizing, great speaker and historical breakthrough--the Anti-Bush

Cons: Racism coming out of the woodwork, fractured democratic party, relationship to polarizing characters, lack of experience and his name


McCain:

Pros: War hero/POW survivor, smart, military leader, direct, trustworthy and moderate conservative.

Cons: Doesn't appeal to ultra conservative base, age, temper, association with conflicted lobbyists, Iraq war supporter and association with Bush

My prediction: Obama wins if the Clintons throw their full support behind him and he runs his campaign as well as he did for the nomination. He has to anticipate his liabilities better and deal with them before they become bombshells. He needs to strengthen his military credentials, his toughest challenge.

McCain will find himself facing what Clinton faced, a once-in-a-lifetime perfect storm of an opponent: great speaker, multicultural in a global world and anti everything that is associated with Bush--the worst president in our history.

Your thoughts?

 

[D_Carroll Condomripper]

McCain will sweep this November. Old white people will not vote for a young black man who, completely falsly, has been linked to terrorist groups.
The democrats shot themselves in the face. Hillary would have taken every swing state. Now we get McCain. Thanks guys.

 

[HazelGod]

McCain will sweep this November. Old white people will not vote for a young black man who, completely falsly, has been linked to terrorist groups.
The democrats shot themselves in the face. Hillary would have taken every swing state. Now we get McCain. Thanks guys.

Hey, you dropped your Manchego...

 

[dspann]

I want to believe that HyperHulk's prediction is true, but my gut tells me that McSizzlesizzle is right on. The Republicans and their slime machine will destroy Obama. Not only will he fail to win the big swing states, he may damn well lose some traditional Blue states, too. I am a loyal Democrat, but my party found yet another way to fuck itself out of a win.

 

[tripod]

HyperHulk's original post was so well written that I have nothing to add. His prediction was just a scenario and a possible outcome, he didn't say that Obama will win, just that he might. His observations on the pros and cons of each of the candidates were spot on.

 

[thoswood]

I agree with most of HyperHulk's analysis, and would add that the outcome will say more about us-- the American voters-- than about the candidates.

An Obama negative that has to be acknowledged is he's an egghead-- an academic who will withhold judgment until sufficient evidence has convinced him-- and Americans usually aren't comfortable with eggheads for President. Adlai Stevenson comes to mind.

A McCain negative (seen during the campaign) is a willingness to shoot from the hip, then take aim. For example: his ambiguity on immigration reform, depending of where he's speaking, or his discomfort the religious politicos until someone says he needs them, then his retreat from their endorsements.

It's been a long primary season so far, and both have candidates have held back on the big guns. I'm projecting that Obama's underplayed style will trump McCain's shudder and bluster. McCain has more experience, but it may not be marketable as change. Americans may not be sure they know what they want right now, but they surely don't want what they have now.

 

[javyn]

McCain is going to clinch it. It's already out of the bag that Hillary's "camp" is going to release some racially charged bombshells against Barak in the general election...I read they really dug up some dirt on him.

Then there's the fact that Barak is going to have to figure out a way to get white people to vote for him, and although the whole Reverend deal didn't really hurt him in the primaries...it's going to kill him in the general.

 

[HyperHulk]

I want to believe that HyperHulk's prediction is true, but my gut tells me that McSizzlesizzle is right on. The Republicans and their slime machine will destroy Obama. Not only will he fail to win the big swing states, he may damn well lose some traditional Blue states, too. I am a loyal Democrat, but my party found yet another way to fuck itself out of a win.

Here's my thoughts on the Republican slime machine: I think they are tired. Like for most of the world, the Bush thing has been a failure and quite frankly, embarrassing. And many had loved Bush. McCain doesn't even command the same attention or crazy devotion that Bush had during his runs. And McCain doesn't have Rove in his corner, because McCain generally is a man of honor. I just don't see the same fanatical push behind McCain that Bush got and I also see Republicans willing to not fight so hard knowing that we need to get past Bush and Obama does that better than McCain. Of course the Republicans aren't going to give up and they will fight, but it won't have the same force as before, it can't. Obama is a trickier target because his greatest weakness is his race, but that's the hardest to exploit publicly without it backfiring.

McCain won't use the race thing as much as Bush would have or even as much as Clinton tried. It's not his style. What works for him is going after Obama's experience in dealing with foreign leaders and military defense and the whole terrorism thing. Bush was able to sustain himself by basically saying, I can protect you from terrorists (and people believed him because he was crazy enough to start an un-provoked war to stop "terrorism". McCain can say this too. Obama is a bit weaker on this and rarely makes this type of claim. Play up this fear and McCain gets a little bit of leverage. Of course the flipside is that you sound like Bush and right now Bush is the greatest political poison around, one that I think will trump even the race stuff.

If another major security incident happens between now and the election, McCain would be in a much better position to beat Obama. Otherwise, Obama's strengths would seem to outweigh McCain's.

 

[B_jacknapier]

Javyn, you think the Clinton camp is going to actively fight Obama in the GENERAL? I am intrigued and confused. Can you give more information, please?

 

[HyperHulk]

I agree with most of HyperHulk's analysis, and would add that the outcome will say more about us-- the American voters-- than about the candidates.

An Obama negative that has to be acknowledged is he's an egghead-- an academic who will withhold judgment until sufficient evidence has convinced him-- and Americans usually aren't comfortable with eggheads for President. Adlai Stevenson comes to mind.

This may be true under normal circumstances but Bush has changed everything. Consider what you wrote. If Bush had been an egghead, there would be no Iraq war. At this point in time, I think people are willing to follow a leader that thinks through plans instead of rushing in and doing untold damage. Obama's greatest chances are the combination of his own character and Bush's many many failures.

 

[HyperHulk]

McCain is going to clinch it. It's already out of the bag that Hillary's "camp" is going to release some racially charged bombshells against Barak in the general election...I read they really dug up some dirt on him.

Then there's the fact that Barak is going to have to figure out a way to get white people to vote for him, and although the whole Reverend deal didn't really hurt him in the primaries...it's going to kill him in the general.

Clinton has quite a bit invested now in Obama's success. If she associates with him and gets either on the ticker or in the cabinet or some other political advantage than there will be some pay off for her for all that she's invested. She is, if anything a very smart woman and a survivor. She has the opportunity now to be a savior by helping Obama with his weaknesses in his own party and she'll play that role. It lets her stay very relevant, because she is. She won't be sabotaging anything.

There is no doubt that there is racism, but there is sexism too and there is ageism and a host of other isms. For Obama to get this far says quite a lot about how far the country has come. There aren't enough racists to hold him back this time. Also, Bush has damaged the Republican party for this cycle and that plays to Obama's advantage. Obama has a way, when he speaks of converting people to his side--it works for republicans too. So yes, he will lose some democrats who are racist but he will also gain lots of independents and republicans that are anti-Bush/war and by extension, anti-McCain. Obama is positioned well. He could never have defeated Clinton, who was more of a sure thing than McCain ever was if he wasn't something extraordinary.

 

[wispandex_bulge]

I hope McCain wins. I think the Repulican party as a whole should feel somewhat apologetic, or at least be willing ot try and fix what went wrong in the last 8 years. McCain is a good bipartisan candidate for the Republicans. Right wing neocons only provide a fraction of the support of the Republican party. Clinton appealed to many of the more liberal and moderate Republicans as well as moderate to conservative Democrats. Although its not very accurately reported (most news I have read indicated that Obama did well with independent voters), most of the independent voters I know, about 7 out of 9 were Clinton supporters. Being that McCain and Clinton were the centrist candidates, it only makes sense for the majority of that independent support to slide to McCain.

I offer this warning about Obama: He is engendering a sense of Us vs Them. That is not unity, although it is the basic tenet of party unity. An Obama-nation (read it fast, folks) leaves little room for non-beleivers.

 

[B_jacknapier]

The improvement in the state of affairs with the war will help McCain, certainly.

 

[dspann]

HyperHulk, you make me want to believe the best about American voters. But I live here, and see on a daily basis how really stupid they are. They will not give this election nearly the consideration that you have. They will vote for the white guy whose wife didn't say she is "finally proud" to be an American and whose pastor didn't say "God Damn America." Incredibly stupid? Yes. But welcome to my world.

 

[MuscleBoundMan]

Clinton has quite a bit invested now in Obama's success. If she associates with him and gets either on the ticker or in the cabinet or some other political advantage than there will be some pay off for her for all that she's invested. She is, if anything a very smart woman and a survivor. She has the opportunity now to be a savior by helping Obama with his weaknesses in his own party and she'll play that role. It lets her stay very relevant, because she is. She won't be sabotaging anything.

There is no doubt that there is racism, but there is sexism too and there is ageism and a host of other isms. For Obama to get this far says quite a lot about how far the country has come. There aren't enough racists to hold him back this time. Also, Bush has damaged the Republican party for this cycle and that plays to Obama's advantage. Obama has a way, when he speaks of converting people to his side--it works for republicans too. So yes, he will lose some democrats who are racist but he will also gain lots of independents and republicans that are anti-Bush/war and by extension, anti-McCain. Obama is positioned well. He could never have defeated Clinton, who was more of a sure thing than McCain ever was if he wasn't something extraordinary.

I think your initial analysis was dead on.

I am very confident that with both McCain and Obama (assuming they are completely off the spectum in choosing a VP) can carry their own party. Obviously that would be certain for Obama if he chooses Hillary, and I believe he will. But he has other good options, and I can understand that he isn't going to want Bill trying to tell him what to do. But it would still be his best choice. I think McCain should take Huckabee. He will bring in the ultra-conservative vote.

So once again, its the middle third that decide. And of course in some swing states the middle is more like 15% than a third.

For those folks the campain hasn't really started yet. Since they don't really care for or about either party, they wait until the nominations are done to begin listening.

I think of myself as one of these voters. My base opinion is that I am voting for McCain unless Obama can convince me not to.

 

[B_VinylBoy]

McCain will sweep this November. Old white people will not vote for a young black man who, completely falsly, has been linked to terrorist groups.
The democrats shot themselves in the face. Hillary would have taken every swing state. Now we get McCain. Thanks guys.

Oh, come on! Obama has NO ties to terrorist groups. That's like saying Michael McDonald, the singer, has tie-ins to the fast food chain all because of his last name. Don't fall for the propaganda or anymore of the constantly spinning tabloid-like redderick.


And this is coming from someone who voted Clinton in the Primary, BTW.

 

[Industrialsize]

For any gay people or those interested in lgbt equality considering voting for mcCain:

A Record of Opposing the Interests of GLBT Americans


OPPOSED Ending Discrimination Against GLBT Americans in the Workplace. Senator McCain cast a deciding vote against the federal Employment Non Discrimination Act.

OPPOSED Protecting GLBT Americans from Hate Crimes. Senator McCain voted three times against expanding the federal hate crimes law to include sexual orientation.

PROPONENT of Discriminatory Military Policy. Senator McCain supports Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and does not believe that gays should serve in the military.

OPPONENT of Equal Benefits for Same-Sex Couples. Senator McCain voted for the Defense of Marriage Act which prohibits same-sex couples from receiving federal rights and benefits in any state.

ACTIVELY SUPPORTED State Ban on Domestic Partnerships. Senator McCain campaigned for a ban on same-sex relationship recognition in his home state of Arizona – even appearing in a campaign television ad.

SUPPORTED the Confirmation of Anti-GLBT Equality Judges. Senator McCain voted to confirm President Bush’s judicial nominees who had taken anti-GLBT positions. He has pointed to Justice Samuel Alito as a role model for future Supreme Court appointments.

SUPPORTED a Discriminatory HIV/AIDS Policy. Senator McCain supported a Jesse Helms strategy to cut off funding for prevention efforts aimed at the gay community and voted to prohibit foreign nationals with HIV from immigrating to the United States.

​

Paid for by Human Rights Campaign PAC (HRC | Political Action Committee) and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.​

 

[wispandex_bulge]

I think of myself as one of these voters. My base opinion is that I am voting for McCain unless Obama can convince me not to.

Right on!

 

[B_VinylBoy]

For any gay people or those interested in lgbt equality considering voting for mcCain:

A Record of Opposing the Interests of GLBT Americans


OPPOSED Ending Discrimination Against GLBT Americans in the Workplace. Senator McCain cast a deciding vote against the federal Employment Non Discrimination Act.

OPPOSED Protecting GLBT Americans from Hate Crimes. Senator McCain voted three times against expanding the federal hate crimes law to include sexual orientation.

PROPONENT of Discriminatory Military Policy. Senator McCain supports Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and does not believe that gays should serve in the military.

OPPONENT of Equal Benefits for Same-Sex Couples. Senator McCain voted for the Defense of Marriage Act which prohibits same-sex couples from receiving federal rights and benefits in any state.

ACTIVELY SUPPORTED State Ban on Domestic Partnerships. Senator McCain campaigned for a ban on same-sex relationship recognition in his home state of Arizona – even appearing in a campaign television ad.

SUPPORTED the Confirmation of Anti-GLBT Equality Judges. Senator McCain voted to confirm President Bush’s judicial nominees who had taken anti-GLBT positions. He has pointed to Justice Samuel Alito as a role model for future Supreme Court appointments.

SUPPORTED a Discriminatory HIV/AIDS Policy. Senator McCain supported a Jesse Helms strategy to cut off funding for prevention efforts aimed at the gay community and voted to prohibit foreign nationals with HIV from immigrating to the United States.

​

Paid for by Human Rights Campaign PAC (HRC | Political Action Committee) and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.​

This is just one of the many reasons why I can't and will not vote for McCain in November. You can't unite a country by being so adamant at suppressing the rights of others.

 

[VeeP]

Oh, come on! Obama has NO ties to terrorist groups. That's like saying Michael McDonald, the singer, has tie-ins to the fast food chain all because of his last name. Don't fall for the propaganda or anymore of the constantly spinning tabloid-like redderick.

Mcsizzlesizzle said "falsely tied", however to his point, merely advancing the thought can often cause it to stick inthe minds of the ill-informed forever.

P.S. the word you seek is rhetoric. :smile: