Obama vs McCain: who wins?

[B_VinylBoy]

Mcsizzlesizzle said "falsely tied", however to his point, merely advancing the thought can often cause it to stick inthe minds of the ill-informed forever.

P.S. the word you seek is rhetoric. :smile:

Actually, I've seen and heard the use of the word rederick in the news a lot. Looking it up, it does seem to be a spin of the word rhetoric. Kinda like congressional slang, or Political Ebonics. Who knew our elected officials could be so ghetto? :biggrin1:

 

[VeeP]

Actually, I've seen and heard the use of the word rederick in the news a lot. Looking it up, it does seem to be a spin of the word rhetoric. Kinda like congressional slang, or Political Ebonics. Who knew our elected officials could be so ghetto? :biggrin1:

If true, that is frightening, but not at all surprising considering the media has been dumbing down their vernacular for years ("busted into" instead of "broken into", "cops" instead of "police", "bucks" instead of "dollars".... to name but a few bastardizations).

 

[HyperHulk]

So once again, its the middle third that decide. And of course in some swing states the middle is more like 15% than a third.

For those folks the campain hasn't really started yet. Since they don't really care for or about either party, they wait until the nominations are done to begin listening.

I think of myself as one of these voters. My base opinion is that I am voting for McCain unless Obama can convince me not to.

I feel like Obama will appeal to the group you targeted. Obama has some advantages:

1. He's a great speaker. To many, he's the engaging speaker in politics in a very long time. Our last 2 great speakers, Clinton and Reagan. The ones that stick in people's mind: JFK, RFK & MLK. Obama reminds many of all 3 of those. (I guess then it's ironic to note that 4 of those 5 were shot and 3 died as a result of the shootings.) His speaking along will draw many to his side. AB (after Bush) people will be hungry for an articulate leader and representative of the world. McCain is good, he's just not Obama good.
2. The history factor. I'm not sure how much attention this is going to get yet but some are going to get caught up in being a part of a historical movement. Despite some of the hard-core racists, Obama is the type of person that most appeals to most people. He's the Michael Jordan/Tiger Woods of the political world--you have to work hard to hate him and most will try to not use race as a reason. If anything, many people will want to promote him because of his race, the same way Clinton would have gotten a boost because she was a competent woman. Many people will want to be able to tell their children and grand-children that they helped bring the first African-American to the presidency.
3. He's the Anti-Bush. McCain, by rights, should be seen as the Anti-Bush as well, but that's tough for him. McCain is so different than Bush and would not have made many of Bush's mistakes. Unfortunately, McCain will be linked to Bush and will have to appeal to many who had supported Bush--that hurts him overall. Most people want to totally eradicate the Bush years and get beyond those years as quickly as possible. Obama does that and people see it. Many people's hatred for anything Bush related will push them slowly toward Obama. McCain is stuck with the stink of Bush and that's not going to wash off in the next 7 months, while Bush is still around to remind everyone how awful he is.

 

[uncut1234]

mccain will win, hes white


no im not racist. just realistic

 

[faceking]

For any gay people or those interested in lgbt equality considering voting for mcCain:

A Record of Opposing the Interests of GLBT Americans


OPPOSED Ending Discrimination Against GLBT,.....

ny candidate or candidate’s committee.​

http://www.hrc.org/equality08/images/ytw_strip.jpg

this means nothing in the swing states.. if anything, it will energize the right. keep these sortsa things quiet now, ya hear me?!

 

[faceking]

I feel like Obama will appeal to the group you targeted. Obama has some advantages:

1. He's a great speaker. To many, he's the engaging speaker in politics in a very long time. Our last 2 great speakers, Clinton and Reagan. The ones that stick in people's mind: JFK, RFK & MLK. Obama reminds many of all 3 of those. (I guess then it's ironic to note that 4 of those 5 were shot and 3 died as a result of the shootings.) His speaking along will draw many to his side. AB (after Bush) people will be hungry for an articulate leader and representative of the world. McCain is good, he's just not Obama good.
2. The history factor. I'm not sure how much attention this is going to get yet but some are going to get caught up in being a part of a historical movement. Despite some of the hard-core racists, Obama is the type of person that most appeals to most people. He's the Michael Jordan/Tiger Woods of the political world--you have to work hard to hate him and most will try to not use race as a reason. If anything, many people will want to promote him because of his race, the same way Clinton would have gotten a boost because she was a competent woman. Many people will want to be able to tell their children and grand-children that they helped bring the first African-American to the presidency.
3. He's the Anti-Bush. McCain, by rights, should be seen as the Anti-Bush as well, but that's tough for him. McCain is so different than Bush and would not have made many of Bush's mistakes. Unfortunately, McCain will be linked to Bush and will have to appeal to many who had supported Bush--that hurts him overall. Most people want to totally eradicate the Bush years and get beyond those years as quickly as possible. Obama does that and people see it. Many people's hatred for anything Bush related will push them slowly toward Obama. McCain is stuck with the stink of Bush and that's not going to wash off in the next 7 months, while Bush is still around to remind everyone how awful he is.

don't agree with some of this post (about 25%)... but must point out how solid of a post this is. kudos... some refreshing and civil thoughts.

 

[D_Thoraxis_Biggulp]

An Obama negative that has to be acknowledged is he's an egghead-- an academic who will withhold judgment until sufficient evidence has convinced him-- and Americans usually aren't comfortable with eggheads for President. Adlai Stevenson comes to mind.

A McCain negative (seen during the campaign) is a willingness to shoot from the hip, then take aim. For example: his ambiguity on immigration reform, depending of where he's speaking, or his discomfort the religious politicos until someone says he needs them, then his retreat from their endorsements.

So we want someone who will think things through but not for too long? I mean, I know it's true, but when it's put like that it sounds seriously fucked up. Right now though, we need somebody who will think before he acts, atleast a bit.

Fortunately, Obama's more for diplomacy than military action. Negotiations have their pitfalls, undoubtedly, but one can take more time aiming words to reason than bullets to flesh.

 

[HyperHulk]

HyperHulk, you make me want to believe the best about American voters. But I live here, and see on a daily basis how really stupid they are. They will not give this election nearly the consideration that you have. They will vote for the white guy whose wife didn't say she is "finally proud" to be an American and whose pastor didn't say "God Damn America." Incredibly stupid? Yes. But welcome to my world.

I lived in the US for most of my life. By the time the election comes around, Obama's wife will be a non-factor (that story will be old) and the pastor stuff will be old news as well--Obama had publicly denounced the pastor and separated from the church. By then, Obama will have had the opportunity to speak and contrast himself with McCain. He'll do fine. He's running a campaign and generating more support than anyone has ever seen before. Again, defeating Clinton is far more impressive and difficult than defeating McCain.

Obama's glowing weakness at the moment isn't the race stuff, it's the experience dealing on the international stage and how handles the military operations throughout the world. McCain will shine here and it's his best message, but it's his only one.

 

[Pendlum]

http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d65/ChurchIRC/1205286539466.gif

Enjoy.

 

[Jason]

In Britain we are getting extensive, exhaustive coverage of this story, and we don't even get to vote.

The lesson of the last few UK elections has been that the candidate who can position themselves closest to the centre ground will win.

McCain is a moderate Republican positioned towards the middle ground. Lots of swing voters will vote for him. And all the hard-core Republicans will also vote for him as they will see him as better than Obama. This is the logic that enabled Blair to win and win and win.

Whatever Obama's views he is not perceived as middle ground - in the mixed up world we live in he is perceived as more of a hard-core Democrat because of his colour. The hard-core will love him, but he won't get the swing votes. This was the problem with Conservative candidates for PM.

If US voters resemble UK voters then the victor is going to be McCain.

 

[B_jacknapier]

McCain will win, not because he's white, uncut1234, but because he's an honorable, seasoned, admirable war hero.

edit: and a political moderate

 

[HyperHulk]

mccain will win, hes white


no im not racist. just realistic

Again, I'd believe you if Obama hadn't defeated Clinton and Clinton was a much more powerful and challenging opponent that McCain.

Clinton had the branding, the historical "it" factor by being a woman, the money, the full support of the party, the ever popular husband ex-president, the experience as a leader and campaigner. Also, the Clintons know how to play hard-ball and can go one-on-one with Rove and co--that's impressive in itself.

Obama took all that on, despite being new, inexperienced and black--and he won the nomination. Unbelievable on every level. He didn't just win, he also raised more money than anyone in history and the support hasn't stopped. He didn't win because Clinton was bad, he won because he was perceived as better.

McCain's own rise was a bit of a shock as well. But most of McCain's rise can be attributed to the weakness of the other candidates. McCain is by far the best candidate to run for his party. McCain doesn't excite people like either Obama or Clinton, he doesn't raise the same money (although his party has more than enough money), he doesn't have the historical "it" factor, he's not as vicious a campaigner as either Bush/Rove or the Clintons and he's linked too much with Bush.

Look at it another way--Obama only needs to carry the states that Kerry and Gore got, plus either Ohio/Florida or a couple of the other ones. He should be able to get everything Kerry got and most likely he'll get Florida. Although I suspect, he'll do even better than that.

 

[D_Thoraxis_Biggulp]

I think another reason Obama is viewed as a hardcore Democrat, aside from his color, is because he's damn near the polar opposite of Bush. Our last two Republican Presidents have been Bushes, serving three terms among them. So for the past 20 years we've had the idea forced into our subconscious minds that the Bush family ideal forms the mold from which all truly Republican politicians are wrought. Any politician holding views strongly contrasting the Bush ideals will then be seen as an extreme Democrat.

 

[B_jacknapier]

Clinton had the branding, the historical "it" factor by being a woman...


Obama took all that on, despite being new, inexperienced and black...

How is her being a woman a positive and his being black a negative? I think each was helped during the democratic primary by their minority status in this political climate.

 

[dreamer20]

people that would vote mccain for the sole fact that he's white...=racist,
im not racist...sorry,

Fortunately those people are outnumbered by the non racists.:smile:

 

[HyperHulk]

How is her being a woman a positive and his being black a negative? I think each was helped during the democratic primary by their minority status in this political climate.

I agree that their minority status has helped both of them, far more than hurting them. I meant in the initial stages. Initially Clinton being a woman drew the support of half the population (not exactly, but you know what I mean), whereas initially, no one could have imagined that a black candidate would ever be so strong, (if Obama gets all the support of blacks, that's only 13% of the population--less than the support Clinton would get from being a woman). I think things changed for Obama once people started to see that he could make despite the inherent problems with the perceptions of his race. After that the proverbial floodgates broke open.

Nevertheless, the historical precedence of being the first woman or first black president is far more compelling to more people than the being the oldest elected president or first POW president.

 

[B_becominghorse]

How is her being a woman a positive and his being black a negative? I think each was helped during the democratic primary by their minority status in this political climate.

I agree, the 'it' factor for American female presidents goes back to Clara Bow.

 

[HyperHulk]

McCain will win, not because he's white, uncut1234, but because he's an honorable, seasoned, admirable war hero.

edit: and a political moderate

McCain is without a doubt, all those things, but it's his only consistent story. The question is, how well does that play during this time of anti-war and anti-Bush sentiments? Being associated with a war that was a mistake, a failure and an embarrassment to many Americans is not the best branding.

McCain will not win by continuing the awful branding of Bush's war but he has a chance if he can co-opt Bush's branding as a terrorist stopper. In order to do that he has to raise the ghosts of terrorism and cast himself as the only one tough enough to fight back terrorists. He has to cast Obama as being to weak and inexperienced to deal with protecting America.

Take away McCain's war stuff and he doesn't stand out that much. He won't be elected on a brilliant domestic or economic plan. McCain is limited by the war and in 7 months, his one story will grow old.

From here, Obama only needs to grow. He already has a great foundation and shines in every area but the one where McCain is strongest. He's got 7 months to deliver answers and put together a team that will respond to his one true weakness. He also can ride the fact that he's denounced a war that most people hate. McCain can't claim that, and neither could Clinton--that hurts them.

 

[HyperHulk]

In Britain we are getting extensive, exhaustive coverage of this story, and we don't even get to vote.

The lesson of the last few UK elections has been that the candidate who can position themselves closest to the centre ground will win.

McCain is a moderate Republican positioned towards the middle ground. Lots of swing voters will vote for him. And all the hard-core Republicans will also vote for him as they will see him as better than Obama. This is the logic that enabled Blair to win and win and win.

Whatever Obama's views he is not perceived as middle ground - in the mixed up world we live in he is perceived as more of a hard-core Democrat because of his colour. The hard-core will love him, but he won't get the swing votes. This was the problem with Conservative candidates for PM.

If US voters resemble UK voters then the victor is going to be McCain.

There's no doubt that McCain is a moderate conservative, but consider that Clinton isn't that far from McCain. She, like her husband, is pretty moderate too for the Democratic party and Obama just defeated her.

Obama quite frankly doesn't need to worry about capturing the replublicans if he can hold onto his own party, which will be a bit of a challenge but becomes less so if he gets Clinton on board. Note what happened in this election, more democrats registered and voted in numbers almost unprecedented. People like to be part of historical movements and that will continue through the election. The republican candidates didn't inspire the same showing. McCain doesn't appeal to the fanatical conservatives. Many, many republicans do not like McCain and they will abstain. If those numbers are anywhere near the racists who won't support Obama, then Obama gets an edge. Also, Obama appeals to republicans the same way Reagan appealed to democrats. People will cross lines.

Blair lost because he was associated too much with Bush and failure of the war. McCain suffers from that as well. This isn't the typical election because there are 2 things going on that no one can predict how powerful they will be: 1--the inspirational aspect of Obama and 2--the hatred of George Bush. McCain is a great candidate but bad timing, Obama is a great candidate with perfect timing. Who wins?

 

[deleted15807]

Oh, come on! Obama has NO ties to terrorist groups.

Obama/Osama the link is RIGHT there...Jesus can't ya see!!!!

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