I've just listened to all 3 speeches today, Clinton's, McCain's and Obama's. I'd love to say this objectively, but it's hard, Obama is poised to win this all.
Clinton gave a good speech, a bit self-serving but she's earned that. She sounds great and clear. She will inspire people and she can help the campaign in some capacity. But the focus of her speech is on women. She is their spokesperson.
http://cdn.sfgate.com/blogs/sounds/sfgate/chroncast/2008/06/03/Clinton_20080603.mp3
McCain's speech is a train wreck the likes of which I haven't heard before. McCain spends half the speech saying how good Obama is but ultimately, in his view, unqualified because he's young and inexperienced. He uses many of Obama's phrases and tries to twist them for his own use. It fails. It sounds forced and fake and unoriginal. Then he does the unimaginable. He calls out Bush for his failed leadership in Iraq. He doesn't stop there. How does he unite his party by attacking the highest ranking figurehead of the party? Mind-boggling. His speech and speaking style pales in comparison to both Clinton's and Obama's.
http://cdn.sfgate.com/blogs/sounds/sfgate/chroncast/2008/06/03/McCain_20080603.mp3
Obama's speech is pitch perfect. Listen to how he reaches out to Clinton. He has every oratory skill you could ever want from a speaker. More importantly, he makes you want to believe and want to see him take over the job. This is the person you want representing your country. It's so clear. He's going to win this.
http://cdn.sfgate.com/blogs/sounds/sfgate/chroncast/2008/06/03/Obama_20080603.mp3
I think you're hearing a lot of what you want to hear. But even if you aren't, remember W was elected twice. He's always been a lousy speaker and even worse debater.
This election appears to coming down to three issues:
1. The economy - especially the price of gas,
2. The War
3. Healthcare
The economy is an issue that either candidate could convince independent voters that they will be better at resolving. Americans always vote their pocketbook if its in trouble. I haven't heard any real answers out of either one of them. But you can bet that an independent voter is going to go with the guy that many more years of experience, unless (as Clinton did) the other one can clearly articulate a plan to correct the problems. A this point Americans would drill in the middle of Yellowstone National Park if it would bring gas prices back below $2. Most of us don't want to hear how good $4 gas is for the environment. We expect a high standard of living at low prices - and at least for now - we will find someone to deliver it. Again it is up in the air which candidate scores the win on this at this point in my humble opinion.
The War is tricky. Yes Obama can claim that he always opposed it. I remember when it was still up for discussion, and I actually got in a fight at a bar because I opposed the war. Not that popular then. My point is that the vast majority favored it then, and pointing out that they were wrong isn't going to sell nearly as well in the general election as it did the primary. Independent minded Americans want out of Iraq and they will be willing to hear either guy's plan. I defiantely expect McCain to be more compelling. He's been there. But who knows.
Healthcare is very important to many americans. The elderly are concerned about the availiability of services. Business are concerned about the rising cost. And many intellegent independent minded voters are concerned about 30 million unissured children in this very wealthy nation. I believe that Obama carries many advantages on this issue. Being a minority from a humble upbringing and the ability to articulate an understandable strategy to correct a very complex problem, just to name a few.
As an independent, Bush is not a factor for me with McCain. Clinton wasn't with Gore, and Reagan wasn't with Bush senior, and so on. I really doubt it is going to make any real difference other than to polarize members of both parties, but they will be there either way.
I think Obama has the higher hill to climb simply because americans usually seek security of experience when they are worried. I give you our last election as an example. But Clinton over came the same problem, and I do believe that Obama is quiet intellegent. I don't really get the same everyman vibe from him that I did from Clinton, and I don't really care that much for most of his speeches as they seem to lack specifics to me. But those speeches were written to win a nomination, not an election. I know he had better come with something more original than more taxes and more roads to fix this economy. I am very impressed that he was able to win the nomination over Hillary. That was not an easy thing to do.
