Obama's Lead: Growing, Growing. . .

Discussion in 'Politics' started by sargon20, Oct 5, 2008.

  1. sargon20

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    The Crooks and Liars may finally be on there way out in total.


    This race is a long way from over, but even arch-conservative Charles Krauthammer seems to see the writing on the wall:

    You can't blame McCain. In an election in which all the fudamentals are working for the opposition, he feels he has to keep throwing long in order to keep hope alive. Nonetheless, his frenetic improvisation has perversely (for him) framed the rookie challenger favorably as calm, stead and cool...

    ...he's [Obama has] got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president.

    Snap polls show independent voters prefered Obama over McCain, and Biden over Palin (yes, even Fox viewers saw it that way). McCain has now ceded Michigan, much to Palin's dismay (amazing what you learn when you read the newspaper).

    Here's what the latest national polls say:

    Gallup:

    Obama 49%
    McCain 42%

    Rasmussen:

    Obama 51%
    McCain 44%

    Hotline/Diageo:

    Obama 48%
    McCain 42%

    Reasearch 2000:

    Obama 51%
    McCain 40%

    As far as trend-lines go, here's Pollster.com's handy chart.


    The McCain campaign now says that it will focus on three states to attain victory: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. According to the RCP

    It ain't over till it's over, so we'll have no complacency or resignation until after all is said and done.
    polling average, Obama currently leads in Minnesota by 5.0%. McCain also trails in Wisconsin by 5.0%, and is back 7.9% in Pennsylvania. RCP rates all three as leaning blue. I know, I know, they're only polls.

    Obama's Lead: Growing, Growing. . .
     
    #1 sargon20, Oct 5, 2008
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2008
  2. faceking

    faceking Well-Known Member

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    Curious when we can put all the crooks and liars to trial... or at least hearings for accomplices to the Bush crimes. I say the day after the election.

    Let me correct you:

    ...he's [Obama has] got both a world-class intellect and a world-class temperament. That will likely be more than enough to make him president.

    A Democrat president, with a Democrat congress... me thinks he'll beat GWBush's all time approval rating. Obama will spend his entire presidency above 50%.
     
  3. B_Nick8

    B_Nick8 New Member

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    For the first time I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.
     
  4. Skull Mason

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    Just better hope that two things don't happen;

    1. The Republicans pull the frozen, 4 year old corpse of Bin Laden out of the freezer prior to election week.

    2. The Republicans pull the frozen, 4 year old corpse of Bin Laden out of the freezer prior to election week.
     
  5. sargon20

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    I know. The Republican Slime Machine has about to ship a whole new load of slime to the airwaves hoping the public forgets that banks are failing one by one thanks to regulatory failures, that unemployment is accelerating, that Afghanistan is not going well, the deficit is leaping, the list of failures is endless. And who knows what other time bombs await us.

    McCain Plans Fiercer Strategy Against Obama

    GOP Strategists Whisper Fears Of Greater Losses in November

    Faux News will convert to 24 hr anti-Democratic yellow journalism for the next 30 days.
     
    #5 sargon20, Oct 5, 2008
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2008
  6. Notaguru2

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    I read an article last night about the state of the election. (I'll try to find it again) Basically, they said there are 7 ways for Obama to win this election and McCain has ONE way to win. McCain's only path to victory is if Obama lost FIVE states that he currently hold leads on average of 4-5 pts in. Again, he would have to lose all five of those states and McCain pick up New Hampshire.

    Basically, this election is over. It was fun. =) If things continue the way they have though, some pundits are already talking landslide.

    McCain is going to start running low-down, dirty, stinking character assassination ads next week. This proves that McCain has given up on the issues and his only hope is to lie about Obama. This as you know, will indeed back fire and send this election into no-man's land in favor of Obama.
     
  7. Notaguru2

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    LOL. I did notice they've been bombing the shit out of Pakistan lately. It was nice of Bush to follow Obama's lead on that strategy.
     
  8. sargon20

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    The same character assassination they did on Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 they will attempt to do again in 2008. So predictable. But 2008 is not 2004 or 2000. The effect of Republican governance has been laid bare thanks to the serial failures by the Master of Disaster Bush.


    David Brock: I've been interested in watching the level of conservative misinformation that circulates through the media. Now before Media Matters launched, I talked for quite some time in my book about the last election, where certain messages and themes would start in the Republican Party and then get into the media. The Republicans knew they couldn't win on the issues in 2000, so they developed an explicit strategy to attack Gore's character -- and that ultimately seemed to have worked. If you looked at the exit polls from 2000 you see that on all the issues -- even on taxes -- voters preferred Gore and his policies, but the election was lost on the issues of trust and integrity. So it has always been my working theory that the same thing would happen this year, no matter who the candidate was.
    The Republican Noise Machine
     
  9. joybunny

    joybunny New Member

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    That would be so wrong but I would not be surprised if it happened! :lmao:
     
  10. B_Marius567

    B_Marius567 New Member

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    where his obama going to get all this money to give to the poor? The USA IS Broke !!!
     
  11. joybunny

    joybunny New Member

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    Since there's no money but an abundance of corn for e85 fuel, maybe he'll be giving out bushels of corn out instead. Last time I've seen someone use that fuel was almost 9 months ago.
     
  12. tripod

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    Yep... Robert Baer says that he is sure that Bin laden is dead and that mofo knows what he is talking about!!!
     
  13. bobabooey69

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    Legalize Marijuana! That is 4 billion dollars...just from my college! :eek:
     
  14. B_Nick8

    B_Nick8 New Member

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    Pakistan is just the new Cambodia.
     
  15. Randll86

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    Bla bla bla...bla,bla bla. Its all bullshit people wake the fuck up, They are ALL full of shit, the media and the politicians. The so called social elite or what ever you want to call the soulless self serving assholes, must keep the sheep scared or there gig is up.

    What ever happened to the Constitution, remember "WE THE PEOPLE" I am sad for what we have let our nation become out of greed and fear. Wake up people, think for yourself and stop letting the media spoon feed you.

    "The horror the horror" J. Conrad

    Ok I better chill out before I really get going. Peace brother and sisters.
     
  16. D_season 5

    D_season 5 Account Disabled

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    ahhh..NICK8...ur still around...damn, u have been quiet..and i hope ur out there busting ur ass and working for Barry....and lets hope with the new socialism that is now part the the US...all of u Barry voters...won't have much adapt much in ur lifestyle...cradle to crave...the commie montra...

    seriously..Barry is peaking way to early... and if he was not in such trouble...he should then be at least 20 points a head of Mc Cain...this will all boil down to the last few weeks. with some HUGE surprise..and with the way the DEM congress and Senate ratings are...i do suspect there is going to a cleaning of the 'house'...for those that don't know..Bush has a rating around 25-30...Congress and the Senate...barely get a 10% approval rating...and with this latest fiassco...the 'bailout'...i suspect some heads are gonna roll..

    btw...has the new york times changed its bias? if so...someone..anyone tell NBC..Obama's headquarters...
     
  17. JustAsking

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    face,
    One would think so, but I am worried that the mess he will be inheriting will make him work damn hard for that 50%. On the other hand, I wonder if a clever politician could always keep the fact of the inheritance in the forefront of the electorate's minds, so he always looks like he is working hard to extricate us?

    Or is the world just too volatile now? Can you possibly be President in these times and maintain the approval of the electorate, or is it destined to be a martyrs job?



    Dudley
     
  18. mindseye

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    As encouraged as I am by recent poll numbers, I expect those numbers will tighten up in the last week before November 4.

    I was in Virginia for the infamous 1989 election between Doug Wilder and Marshall Coleman in which polls showed Wilder to be 9 points ahead, but on election day, he won by a mere 0.4% of the vote. We've come to know as the "Wilder effect" (Wikipedia calls it the "Bradley effect", after a similar race in California in 1983) the discrepancy between polling and voting when an African-American candidate runs against a white candidate. There is evidence that some white people polled would reply that they were "undecided" to cover up their discomfort at admitting that they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a black candidate.

    In addition to Doug Wilder's and Tom Bradley's race, the effect has been noted in races involving candidates David Dinkins, Jesse Jackson, and former Chicago mayor Harold Washington.

    There's plenty of evidence that the effect is starting to diminish due partly to more enlightened attitudes about race, and partly to better detection techniques by pollsters. In the 2006 Tennessee Senate race between Bob Corker and Harold Ford, the discrepancy between polling and voting was much smaller than it was in 1983 or 1989, for example.

    I've been following the encouraging electoral projection maps like the one found here which shows Obama ahead 329-194, but I've been arbitrarily adding three points to McCain's numbers. The specific choice of three points has no evidence behind it: it's just a gut feeling that there will be some Wilder effect on the results, but not as much as there was in 1989. But a three-point Wilder shift is enough to change the outcome of the race: that same map adjusted by three points puts John McCain ahead 274-264.

    As I've said before, three points may be completely off-base. I suspect it's too optimistic for some states, and too pessimistic for others, but it's certainly not a blanket number that applies equally across the country as I've applied it here. But I think it's entirely fair to make the prediction that the race will end up being much closer than it appears right now.
     
  19. sargon20

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    Oh I don't doubt that. At the end of the day a lot of white people need to walk into a voting booth and vote for a black candidate. And will it happen? No one really knows. But expect ads like (Call Me Harold ) that whacked Harold Ford in Tennessee when he was ahead. The GOP will use every sleazy tool in the tool kit.
     
  20. inman69

    inman69 Member

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    You know that they're working overtime to come up with some sleaziness to make sure that McCain/Palin win this race. It's this kind of behavior that has turned off several of my friends who consider themselves true Republicans. I'm waiting for the October surprise! I just hope that Americans vote for the best candidate that can try to turn some of this shit around.
     
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