oil crisis like 1974?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Perados, Dec 28, 2011.

  1. Perados

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    iran says, should the west keep the pressure up, like in the last month. Then they will blockad the persian gulf...
     
  2. houtx48

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    I guess they could try..................their neighbors might get testy, cutting into their money supply and all.
     
  3. Who_Dun_It

    Who_Dun_It New Member

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    It would be interesting to see if the international community would put up with it this time.
     
  4. MarkLondon

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  5. dandelion

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    It would be interesting to see if the Iranians are capable of carrying out the threat. I imagine, they attack, the US counterattacks landing troops. The US has to occupy the area indefinitely while being attacked from time to time. I imagine there are relatively small weapons these days capable of attacking commercial ships at at a few miles distance quite accurately, if the Iranians are prepared to start sinking some in the channel.
     
  6. vibrationzzz

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    Yep, and the price of crude goes up with mere hint or speculation of trouble. Geeze, I wonder who will make money from that? Oh, hang on, the oil producing countries...Right?

    All they have to do is give a hint of trouble or mischief, and who suffers, we do. Well, except for oil shares that is. Wonder who owns most of those? Oh yeah, the oil producers. They do not need to blockade anything just threaten.

    Sometime in the next 100 or so years fossil fuels will be rare and way to expensive. Probably only rationed for public transport, military, and civilian aircraft. Can't see a 787 get off the ground using solar panels. Maybe solar powered airships. With the crap piling up in the pacific gyres, it could be possible to pedal across. :) Hydrogen? yeah, maybe. Off on a friggin tangent again....sheesh
     
    #6 vibrationzzz, Dec 29, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2011
  7. dandelion

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    Not so very much of a tangent, but in the future fuel for air travel, etc will be produced from biofuels if we havnt worked out a better way of storing energy. They wont be directly solar powered.
     
  8. vibrationzzz

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    If we have the productive land for it, as I think most of the fertile land left productive after 'progress' will be used supplying the demands of the worlds increased population with the basics of food. Maybe using the oceans to produce bio's. A food plant hardy enough that it can grow in salt hydroponics, not for eating but for fuels....while decreasing the worlds carbon gasses. Maybe there could be a way there for it to cleanse the oceans as well?

    Maybe Maybe...:)
     
    #8 vibrationzzz, Dec 29, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2011
  9. pacethepace

    pacethepace New Member

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    I think it is important to differentiate between Iran the power elite and Iran the ordinary men and women who, like us, are just trying to make a living and survive day to day. There are vested interests on both sides in whose interests it is to demonise each other - the vast and lucrative Industrial - Military complexes and external suppliers in and to both countries. The Republican Guard in Iran and the armaments and ordinance suppliers to governments in the West. The MOD and the Pentagon et .al.
    All regimes need their bogey men, the existential threat , a rationale that legitimises their raison d’etre.
    Iran has the US and the UK - collectively call ‘the West’ - with some historical justification as to why they view us so - and the US and the UK who are deeply suspicious of Iran’s intentions in developing a nuclear infrastructure capable of producing nuclear weapons, as well as supporting proscribed ’terrorist’ organisations - according to western interpretations.
    That having been said should Iran be allowed to threaten to close the Straights of Hormuz, an international water way which sees a third of the daily output of the world’s oil pass through it? The answer is of course no.
    The National Interest - and I have put those two word in capitals letters to designate a specific concept in strategic and international relationship terms - of the United States and other counties would not could not and should not allow this happen.
    You deal with threats but standing up to them, facing the aggressor and calling their bluff. Margaret Thatcher, a politician for whom I have no great love, spoke a simple truth when she said…” learn from lessons of history.” We did not deal with defiance and bellicose threats during the 1930s and look what price we eventually ended up paying.
    Bullies push there luck, bullies thrive on inducing fear - they understand one thing and one thing only - a good slap - whether that be in the play yard, on the international stage or in a family. Hit them and hit them hard and they’ll think twice before messing with you again.
     
  10. pacethepace

    pacethepace New Member

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    Coda to my previous comment

    My fear is: Is there the political will to deal with Iran militarily in London, DC or Europe, I fear not? Obama didn’t exactly clothe himself in leadership glory during the US budget crisis, Europe is to busy naval gazing and London is still extricating itself from previous military forays.

    Have the lessons of history been learnt - I fear not?
     
  11. cruztbone

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    If you watched cnn today, you saw that saudi arabia is buying dozens of new jet fighters from the u.s. That, plus the fact that the straits of hormuz are essential for saudi arabia to sell its oil should make it clear that iran will be opposed by more than the us if it tries to do this. Plus, china buys its oil from oil tankers that use the straits of hormuz to deliver. Iran is just trying to show it has balls. And their balls are hollow.
     
  12. vibrationzzz

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    Wonder what they will fight about when there is no oil left? Land? Food? Fresh water? If they wanted to stop selling oil, they could, it's theirs. If they only wanted to sell it to china or russia they can. Who would be the bully if they decided to do that? They would only be using business tactics that have been employed by the west for hundreds of years?

    Do you really think the west, western big money interests, or, middle eastern big money interests want a lasting peace in that region?

    Soldiers, from just about every country in the world have died and bled in the sands around that region. From the time I was born and fifty years before that, it's been about oil. And thousands of years before that it's been about religion, tribes, land and water. It will eventually turn full circle, one day to be about land, water and fucking religion again....not that that has ever really gone away.

    The Palestinians and the Isrealies have been fighting over a friggin strip of land 40 kilometers long and 7 kilometers wide for how fucking long? Is it too hard to say 50/50?

    So don't get your knickers in a knot about talk of a blockade. It's (big) business as usual over there.

    Spend your time trying to think of an invention where they won't be needed anymore.
     
    #12 vibrationzzz, Dec 29, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2011
  13. Thedrewbert

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    Kelp is the way to go. It can be used to make bio fuels. it is easy to propagate, and it grows in the ocean
     
  14. dandelion

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    Surely the lesson of history from 1918 is that had a livable peace treaty been agreed then, 1939 could have been avoided. An eye for an eye just ends up costing yet another eye.
     
  15. houtx48

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    Most of the time they sink ship to interrupt the shipping lanes and I thinking the Straits of Hummus is to wide and to deep for this to be effective. Plus there are a bunch of American Navy ships in the Persian Gulf now and what kind of a Navy would Iran have to combat this? Guess we'll see what happens.
     
  16. vibrationzzz

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    Kelp produces a heap of methane as well...........sometimes you can smell it when the weed comes close to shore along our beaches.
     
  17. rob_just_rob

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    We can only hope.
     
  18. Who_Dun_It

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    Done right, there's another fuel source then!
     
  19. ialooking

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    The Iranians saber rattle all the time. Iran knows the US 5th fleet is also in the Strait. They do this to drive the price of oil up. It lasted a few days. The US sits on a huge reserve of oil.
    A few years ago the saudi oil minister said only 18% of the worlds oil has been tapped. When I was a kid we were told the oil would be gone before the year 2000. It isn't. They just keep finding more & more. Fossil fuels will be around for a long time to come.
    Gas would be cheaper if new refineries could be built.
     
  20. Perados

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    No americas oil reserves arent that huge... Atm your reserves are nearly 0% ;)

    Yeah the saudis talk talk and talk but also they dont tell anyone how mutch oil is left... And in the last 30years the saudis didnt find any new.
    And yes we find every year new oil but not nearly enough as we need in the future
     
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