From my blog today
Today, Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) met to set out the ground rules and timetable for choosing a new leader in succession to Mr Corbyn. It would appear that the contest is to formally start tomorrow with the results announced at a specially convened conference on April 4th.
It is perfectly reasonable to wonder why anyone commentating from a broadly Conservative standpoint might be interested in the proceedings. Well we are interested and for two reasons. Firstly, whoever is chosen to next lead the Labour party will play a big part in shaping the political discourse in the months and years following their selection. Secondly, after two and a half miserable years of minority Government during it which it was seemingly impossible to get anything done, we now have a majority Conservative Government. For that Government to function at its best, it needs an Opposition worthy of the name, which can properly hold it to account and keep its feet to the fire whilst offering a credible, believable, alternative narrative. During Mr Corbyn’s tenure and, for some time before that, such an Opposition has been conspicuous by its absence.
What then should be the qualities of the next Labour leader? Firstly, he or she should aim at securing some semblance of unity within the party as this is vital to its credibility. They must reconnect with the party’s historic support base – people who feel it no longer represents their interest. At the same time, they must not be unattractive to floating voters, especially people who aren’t natural socialists but who, under the right circumstances, might be persuaded to give Labour the benefit of the doubt. He or she must be business friendly and, commit to keeping attractive rates of Corporation Tax, so necessary if businesses are to be persuaded to invest in Britain and create jobs. They must have stamina for the long haul, knowing full well that Labour will most likely lose the next election and, in all probability, the one after. After its worst electoral performance since 1935, the party has a lot of recovering to do.
This, of course, brings us to the candidates themselves.
Of Clive Lewis, we know little and it is very difficult for us therefore to comment.
Emily Thornberry, 59, certainly has experience on her side and that much can be urged in her favour. At the same time, she is on the old side to start leading a party which could well continue in opposition for ten or more years. Also, in constituency terms she is Mr Corbyn’s next door neighbour and very much part of the ‘London bubble’ which could be a handicap.
Shadow Business Secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, isn’t a candidate at the time of writing but is expected to announce her candidature in the morning. At 40 she has youth and energy on her side. Ideologically, however, she is considered to be ‘Corbyn continuity’ candidate and we very much doubt whether with those credentials she really has the capacity to help the party reinvent itself in the way that recent events would suggest was necessary.
Sir Keir Starmer, 57, is a hot favourite amongst party members and has the virtue of being a relative moderate. Currently serving as shadow Brexit Secretary and a Privy Councillor he is, like Ms Long-Bailey, a relative newcomer to Parliament having, like her, only entered it in 2015. As with Emily Thornberry, our main concern about him is his age. If Labour spends as long in opposition as we think it will, he could well be the age Mr Corbyn is now, or fast approaching it, by the time it next gets anywhere near power.
Jess Phillips, 38, is the youngest of the candidates so far and highly personable too. Another member of the 2015 intake, she represents Birmingham, Yardley. Our only concern about her is her position on Brexit, as a Remainer who may wish to try and reverse it, Jo Swinson style. Although she is a good candidate and we would like to see her in the final two, whether she wins or not, we have some anxiety that her outspoken, if entirely justified, criticism of Mr Corbyn will result in her getting little support from the party’s current power base.
Lisa Nandy, 40, has represented Wigan since 2010 and has a decade of parliamentary experience to her name. Nothing that we know of her gives us significant cause for concern. Like Jess Phillips, she is a very personable young lady. If we had a dog in the fight - and we don’t – she would be our preferred candidate as we think she would do her party most good and her country least harm.
In conclusion our preference is for Lisa Nandy or, failing her, Jess Phillips. It will, however, be for the Labour party and its registered supporters to decide who becomes the next leader. There is no over arching reason why the new leader has to be a woman rather than a man. However, we would make the point that the Conservative party has had two female leaders, both of whom have served with distinction as Prime Minister. Labour, which prides itself on being a progressive party has yet to have a permanent woman leader. Maybe now is the time.
