seems
to be an obvious
govt has no intentions of restricting coal,to INDIA/CHINA
think we can expect a few years of these bushfires before they realise/act on/change a govt
but like the USA ECONOMY FIRST
downfall
of every counntry
- me thinks
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Australia is not prepared to fight the bushfires of the future, experts warn
Background Briefing
An investigation by Background Briefing, ABC Regional and Landline
Updated 7 Oct 2019, 11:37am
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PHOTO: The Sir Ivan fire created its own thunderstorm, which was about 7 kilometres high. (NSW Coroner's Court: Supplied)
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The bushfires of the future are already here. They burn earlier in the season, and more ferociously, and can interact with extreme weather events to create fires we don't know how to fight.
Key points
- The national aerial firefighting centre, which two years ago flagged the need for an $11m funding boost, still has not received a decision from the Federal Government
- The Government has not guaranteed funding for the only national body researching the future of bushfires
- Twenty-three emergency services experts calling on the Government to consider the threat of climate change in fire planning have not received a response
This year, the bushfire season began with the worst September in recorded history, with 55 homes destroyed.
The Australian winter was only just in the rear-view mirror when 130 bushfires ripped through southern Queensland and northern NSW in one day.
Australia's former chief scientist, Ian Chubb, said it was clear the climate was changing.
"It's not just some passing phase that it didn't rain this decade," he said. "The implications of that for fire are pretty obvious."
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Former New South Wales fire and rescue commissioner and Climate Council member Greg Mullins said unprecedented conditions could give rise to so-called Black Swan fire events.
"We're going to have fires that I can't comprehend, and I've been in the game for nearly half a century," he said.
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PHOTO: Unprecedented fire events could happen more regularly. (ABC News: Andrew Kennedy)
A Black Swan is something without precedent and thought to be impossible, until it happens.
When it comes to bushfires, these Black Swans happen as our environment changes, creating conditions firefighters have never seen before.
Emergency experts and senior scientists have told a joint ABC investigation that a comprehensive national plan is needed to tackle the fires of the future, and they are concerned about the lack of financial commitment from the Federal Government for resources and research.
"This is a national issue that all people in Australia, regardless of whether they are left or right, have a right to expect that we will face up to challenges that are ahead," Professor Chubb said.
Inside a Black Swan fire event
When an unprecedented heatwave swept New South Wales in 2017, it set the conditions for a Black Swan fire event.
The Sir Ivan fire began east of Dunedoo and would burn through 55,000 hectares.
YOUTUBE: By the time RFS captain Shane Rawlinson arrived at the Sir Ivan fire, it had become a maelstrom of flame.
By the time Rural Fire Service captain Shane Rawlinson arrived, it had become a maelstrom of flame so powerful it created its own weather system.
"Have you seen the movie Dante's Inferno? It just looked like hell," he said.
"It looked like the air itself was burning."
Clouds of smoke became a firestorm that shot lightning bolts up to 80 kilometres away, which started yet more fires.
"The worst lightning storm that you can imagine, coupled with a dust storm, blocking out everything as it came," he said.
"The noise was like 10 or 20 big trucks roaring towards you at one time, with all their motors peak revving."
The blaze was unlike anything the NSW RFS had ever dealt with, according to Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons.
"It was unprecedented in New South Wales," he said.
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PHOTO: The Sir Ivan fire, near Dunedoo, eventually burned 55,000 hectares. (Supplied: Peter Gilmour)
Commissioner Fitzsimmons reiterated the need for federal funding to deal with these conditions.
“We have extraordinary support assistance and engage in arrangements with the Commonwealth," he said. "I would expect that to only grow and improve in the decades ahead."
'Asleep at the wheel'
Black Swans like the Sir Ivan firestorm are only going to become more frequent as our climate warms, according to Dr Karl Braganza, head of Climate Monitoring at the Bureau of Meteorology.
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Prepare to burn
Bushfire season is already here. Are we ready for the summer ahead?
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The fires of the future are here, but we might not be ready for them
"We're also seeing not just the change in the frequency of those events, we're seeing a change in the severity, so the worst fire danger days are getting worse," he said.
An RFS spokesman confirmed firefighters started to see fire thunderstorms during the northern NSW fires in September.
Even though the threat of more unprecedented fire events is bearing down on us, Australia is not sufficiently prepared to fight them, according to Professor David Bowman, who specialises in how fire interacts with the landscape.
"A lot of firefighting has really got to be done five years before the firestorm," he said. "You've got to be doing the prep."
"Unfortunately, we're asleep at the wheel — as a community, we're just not getting it."
Numbers of volunteer firefighters across Australia are in decline: at least 7,000 have left brigades in the past five years.
Emergency service executives have also told Background Briefing one challenge they're already facing is that state bushfire seasons are starting to overlap. This means the system of states and territories lending each other resources is increasingly strained.
Currently about 140 aerial firefighting aircraft are leased under a national system that ensures planes and helicopters can be deployed at 15 minutes' notice.
The locations of these crafts vary, but usually the arrival of the wet season in Queensland means water-bombing planes could then be lent to Western Australia during their season, while Tasmania borrows from Victoria.
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PHOTO: A water bomber on loan from the NSW Rural Fire Service dropping water over bushfires in central Queensland. (Supplied: ASHJO Photography in Kabra)
So far, the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC) has managed competing needs, but general manager Richard Alder acknowledged overlapping seasons were a risk.
Two years ago, the NAFC sent a proposal on behalf of all states and territories to Canberra for an annual increase of $11 million above its existing $15 million funding, which would contribute to contracting large water-bombing aircraft from countries such as the US.
They still haven't received a decision from the Federal Government.
Background Briefing has obtained documents that show the proportion of federal funding for NAFC has more than halved since 2003.
Minister for Natural Disaster and Emergency Management David Littleproud said he would raise the business case at the next Ministerial Council meeting.
"We haven't made a decision around the aerial assets," he told Background Briefing. "We'll continue to work with the states in a mature way."
He said the Government was cognisant firefighting resources were going to be needed for longer periods in more jurisdictions than before and was committed to finding solutions.
The cost of natural disasters is projected to reach an average of $39 billion by 2050.
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PHOTO: Firefighters outside at Drake, NSW, in September. (ABC News: Meghna Bali)
In Australia, states and territories are responsible for disaster management, but the Federal Government does play a role in coordinating resources.
