Guy-jin
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Latest polls only indicate something substantive when they're truly late, meaning just before the election. It's far too early to tell what will happen once the real campaign begins.
That's certainly one reason. Another is the nature in which they're done. Often it's either a street poll or a phone-based poll (calling land-lines, of course), done during the day in the middle of the week. That's not exactly a representative constituent of anything particularly relevant.