RealClearPolitics - Obama Win

Bardox

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I've never doubted Obama would win over the elctoral vote. I did question if he would get the popular vote though.
 

matt19

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Obama is polling at 45-47 pct in most every poll. And its been that way for a month. That is big trouble for an incumbent. If you look into the polling data, any time Obama is shown ahead in places like Ohio, the sample is weighted plus 7-9 In Dems. Turnout is goung to be closer to 50-50. With Romney up double digits with independents its hard to see Obama winning close states.

You can poo poo this theory if you want, but remember polls are often made to sway opinion instead of to reflect it. When the samples show dems being over sampled like that you have to really wonder.
 

matt19

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RCP gives equal weight to all polls. So a poll conducted by a college or newspaper sampling only 500 people is given the same weight as Gallup or Rasmussen who poll 1500-2500 people. You have to look at the data from each poll to see if it has value.

Lets say PPP pols Ohio voters and finds it 47-44 for Obama. OK. Look at their data. Say they show 39pct Dems, 31pct Reps and 30pct Independent. Is that what the electoral turnout projects to be? It was in 2008. But this year it is probably closer to 35Dem 34Rep or something like that. So you have to question how accurate the poll is by the data sample.

Hey, I could be wrong, its just a theory. We'll know on Tuesday.
 

B_penispenispenis37

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I got this theory that every republican has a theory about the polls because they are A) too dumb to understand the statistics applied by guys like 538 or B) They are to unwilling to understand the statistics applied by guys like 538

Hey, I could be wrong, it's just a theory.
 
D

deleted15807

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National polling really means nothing. Winners are picked amongst the states. This isn't a national refferendem. Presidential elections are decided by the individual states.Look to the local polling in your area.

Yep just ask Al Gore :wink: