While Santorum had 2 wins yesterday they were far from the whopping win he had in Kansas and didn't match up in percentage margin to the level which Romney took Hawaii.
Yesterdays results however do make clear that it is definitely time for Ron Paul to get out. I don't know where those votes would end up going but it would be interesting to find out. Would they shift towards Romney or Santorum or in some strange twist towards Gingrich?
Missouri coming up in 3 days should be an interesting watch.
No hope that Ron Paul is getting out, I don't think. Even if he personally seems to like Romney, I think he knows where his bread is buttered in terms of supporters. I think all eyes will be on Gingrich, but the dude seems pretty arrogant to me, so I'm not sure he's quite ready to reconsider, even if he's dead meat delegate-wise.
Romney's Hawaii landslide was all about the Mormon population. There was one caucus site on Oahu, near BYU-Hawaii, where Romney got 93% and a margin of nearly 1,000 votes. Without that, Romney only beat Santorum 36%-30%. Not bad itself, but not especially good for Romney in a state which I think has the lowest percent of born-again Christians in the U.S.
I agree. Santorum's Alabama and Mississippi wins weren't that impressive. Romney still can't gain traction with Southern voters, but Santorum is still splitting the vote with Gingrich. Basically, Santorum's performance last night was just OK, but a win is a win. Romney even got traction out of his Michigan win, despite underperforming. We'll see the polls in the next few days. Illinois is a tougher state for Santorum demographically than either Ohio or Michigan, having lots of suburban voters in the ring counties around Chicago.
I think Missouri has decided not to take a straw poll at their caucus, so there may not be much to see there.