September 20, 2008
Shaky Economy Suddenly Dims Russian Prospects :nana:
By ELLEN BARRY
MOSCOW — This week, Moscow looked every inch the glittering financial capital it aspires to be.
Luxury cars were jammed up for blocks outside a lavish art opening at the Red October chocolate factory, where long-legged models congregated around works by
Andy Warhol and Picasso. President
Dmitri A. Medvedev, flanked by the country’s commercial titans, talked of his longtime dream of building a trade and commerce hub that would challenge New York and London.
But that prospect has begun to look less certain. The stock market plunged so precipitously earlier this week that the government halted trading for two days. Stocks roared back with a 28 percent gain on Friday. But the market is still down by nearly half since May.
The price of oil, the mainstay of
Russia’s commodity-driven economy, has dropped sharply. And as Washington and Moscow exchanged icy words over Russia’s military action in neighboring Georgia, the Russian Parliament was reviewing a bill that would increase defense spending by a hefty 25 percent.
The Russia that has regained such confidence under
Vladimir V. Putin — a success anchored in stable politics, predictable economic growth and firm state control over natural resources industries — now looks distinctly volatile. The crisis was worrying enough to the billionaire developer Sergei Polonsky that on Wednesday he announced a freeze on all new projects.
“Probably a period of struggle for existence and survival is coming,” said Dmitri Lutsenko, a member of the board of directors for Mr. Polonsky’s Mirax Group, which is building Europe’s tallest skyscraper beside the Moscow River. “The strong businesses will become stronger, and the weak ones will be wiped out of the market,” he said.
In the Friday edition of Komsomolskaya Pravda, a cheeky city tabloid, there was only one headline on the front page: “How to Make It Through the Financial Crisis Without Losses.” It was illustrated with the face of a yuppie, his hands clasped over his mouth in horror.
Many countries were jolted by the markets this week. And the recovery on Friday of the Moscow stock markets — so swift that the government was forced to close the markets twice during the day because the growth “exceeded technical limits” — suggests that government emergency measures had helped to restore investor confidence.
Mr. Medvedev came into power this spring in a country with enormous cash reserves. His agenda was a modernizing one: institutional reform would allow small businesses, and the middle class, to grow; the economy would be weaned from excessive dependence on oil profits; government initiatives would build domestic industry and the high-tech sector.
Now, more urgent tasks stand before him. Russia’s military, which was left to deteriorate in the 1990s, must be updated. The government said it would devote $44 billion to shoring up banks and markets in the near future to prevent the kind of meltdown that paralyzed the country in 1998. On Friday the president made the defiant statement about Russia’s sticking to its modernizing course, but acknowledged that recent events made that more difficult.
“We are in fact being pushed onto the development track which is not based on sound, normal and civilized cooperation with other countries, but rests on autonomous development behind thick walls and an ‘iron curtain,’ ” Mr. Medvedev said, referring to the recent tensions with the West over the war in Georgia.
“I would like to stress once again: This is not our track,” he said, according to the Interfax news agency. “There is no use in returning back to the past. We have made our choice.”
Russia must pursue “economic development, the expansion of business, creative and personal freedom,” he added, without “any reference to whether the country is in a particular situation surrounded by enemies.”
Meanwhile, a city brimming with new wealth went about its daily rhythms. On Friday, bankers and traders filtered into their offices. Lexuses and BMWs lined up in front of Romanov Dvor, an elegant pre-Revolutionary building whose interior is sleekly modern, fitted with smoky glass walls and a cascade of purple orchids suspended in midair.
As the finance workers slipped outside for smoking break, they traded gossip from a nervous financial sector. Most said they felt confident that the government would manage the crisis, but there were hints of fallout: investment bankers mourning their lost bonuses, a client canceling a trip abroad to stay home and monitor his stock price.
Many bankers have spent recent days on the phone trying to soothe rattled investors, said Pavel Prosyankin, who works in the financial sector.
“They were worried, because our clients were worried,” Mr. Prosyankin said. At 36, he is old enough to remember the crisis of 1998, when a drop in the price of oil devastated every corner of the Russian economy.
The fundamentals of the economy, he said, are much stronger than they were in 1998. But “in terms of investor behavior, it’s very much the same,” he said. “The way people become irrational is very much the same.”
Michael Schwirtz and Sophia Kishkovsky contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company