Russian Analyst Predicts Decline And Breakup Of USA

B_Nick4444

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:nana:actually, it doesn't look good for Russia:

The prospects for Russia
House of Commons Library
RESEARCH PAPER 99/87
8 NOVEMBER 1999


Russia is still struggling to recover from the upheavals of its economic and political
transition.
· Income disparity has widened sharply and almost one fifth of the population are now
living in extreme poverty.
· A burgeoning black economy compensates to a degree for the decline in officially
measured output, but leaves the state starved of funds for pensions, health, welfare and
education.
· The financial crash of 1998 severely undermined the credibility of political and financial
institutions and discouraged foreign investment.
· The presidential term of Boris Yeltsin is due to expire in the summer of 2000. Illness,
economic failure and allegations of financial impropriety against his family and entourage
have left his reputation in tatters. There are many possible contenders for his post, but
none has a firm political base.
· Since March 1998 President Yeltsin has changed his prime minister at frequent intervals.
Chernomyrdin gave way to Kirienko, who was replaced by Primakov, then Stepashin and
now Putin.
· Elections to the Duma (lower chamber of parliament) are due on 19 December and have
already prompted a shake-up among the main political parties.
· No single party is likely to dominate the next Duma, but a new regionally-based centrist
alliance may rival the communists as the biggest coherent group.
· The election campaign is being overshadowed by a renewed war by federal Russian
forces against Chechen nationalists and Islamists. This is bound to influence the Duma
and presidential elections, whether or not it was deliberately engineered for this purpose.
· The next president of Russia may try to mobilise the power of the state and the appeal of
Russian nationalism to resolve the problems he will inherit, but he will be severely
constrained by economic realities and by the need to retain the sympathy of international
financial institutions.
 
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B_Nick4444

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September 20, 2008
Shaky Economy Suddenly Dims Russian Prospects :nana:

By ELLEN BARRY
MOSCOW — This week, Moscow looked every inch the glittering financial capital it aspires to be.
Luxury cars were jammed up for blocks outside a lavish art opening at the Red October chocolate factory, where long-legged models congregated around works by Andy Warhol and Picasso. President Dmitri A. Medvedev, flanked by the country’s commercial titans, talked of his longtime dream of building a trade and commerce hub that would challenge New York and London.
But that prospect has begun to look less certain. The stock market plunged so precipitously earlier this week that the government halted trading for two days. Stocks roared back with a 28 percent gain on Friday. But the market is still down by nearly half since May.
The price of oil, the mainstay of Russia’s commodity-driven economy, has dropped sharply. And as Washington and Moscow exchanged icy words over Russia’s military action in neighboring Georgia, the Russian Parliament was reviewing a bill that would increase defense spending by a hefty 25 percent.
The Russia that has regained such confidence under Vladimir V. Putin — a success anchored in stable politics, predictable economic growth and firm state control over natural resources industries — now looks distinctly volatile. The crisis was worrying enough to the billionaire developer Sergei Polonsky that on Wednesday he announced a freeze on all new projects.
“Probably a period of struggle for existence and survival is coming,” said Dmitri Lutsenko, a member of the board of directors for Mr. Polonsky’s Mirax Group, which is building Europe’s tallest skyscraper beside the Moscow River. “The strong businesses will become stronger, and the weak ones will be wiped out of the market,” he said.
In the Friday edition of Komsomolskaya Pravda, a cheeky city tabloid, there was only one headline on the front page: “How to Make It Through the Financial Crisis Without Losses.” It was illustrated with the face of a yuppie, his hands clasped over his mouth in horror.
Many countries were jolted by the markets this week. And the recovery on Friday of the Moscow stock markets — so swift that the government was forced to close the markets twice during the day because the growth “exceeded technical limits” — suggests that government emergency measures had helped to restore investor confidence.
Mr. Medvedev came into power this spring in a country with enormous cash reserves. His agenda was a modernizing one: institutional reform would allow small businesses, and the middle class, to grow; the economy would be weaned from excessive dependence on oil profits; government initiatives would build domestic industry and the high-tech sector.
Now, more urgent tasks stand before him. Russia’s military, which was left to deteriorate in the 1990s, must be updated. The government said it would devote $44 billion to shoring up banks and markets in the near future to prevent the kind of meltdown that paralyzed the country in 1998. On Friday the president made the defiant statement about Russia’s sticking to its modernizing course, but acknowledged that recent events made that more difficult.
“We are in fact being pushed onto the development track which is not based on sound, normal and civilized cooperation with other countries, but rests on autonomous development behind thick walls and an ‘iron curtain,’ ” Mr. Medvedev said, referring to the recent tensions with the West over the war in Georgia.
“I would like to stress once again: This is not our track,” he said, according to the Interfax news agency. “There is no use in returning back to the past. We have made our choice.”
Russia must pursue “economic development, the expansion of business, creative and personal freedom,” he added, without “any reference to whether the country is in a particular situation surrounded by enemies.”
Meanwhile, a city brimming with new wealth went about its daily rhythms. On Friday, bankers and traders filtered into their offices. Lexuses and BMWs lined up in front of Romanov Dvor, an elegant pre-Revolutionary building whose interior is sleekly modern, fitted with smoky glass walls and a cascade of purple orchids suspended in midair.
As the finance workers slipped outside for smoking break, they traded gossip from a nervous financial sector. Most said they felt confident that the government would manage the crisis, but there were hints of fallout: investment bankers mourning their lost bonuses, a client canceling a trip abroad to stay home and monitor his stock price.
Many bankers have spent recent days on the phone trying to soothe rattled investors, said Pavel Prosyankin, who works in the financial sector.
“They were worried, because our clients were worried,” Mr. Prosyankin said. At 36, he is old enough to remember the crisis of 1998, when a drop in the price of oil devastated every corner of the Russian economy.
The fundamentals of the economy, he said, are much stronger than they were in 1998. But “in terms of investor behavior, it’s very much the same,” he said. “The way people become irrational is very much the same.”
Michael Schwirtz and Sophia Kishkovsky contributed reporting.





Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
 
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Steinweg9

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What if he's right and the feds have seen this coming all along? All those detention camps waiting for occupants, all that offshore script designed with different colors which won't be accepted in the USA, all that land Bush and pals bought in South America, Cheney fleeing to Dubai, the Amero, it all adds up!

Actually... this isn't all that far-fetched. Empires without enemies to keep them sharp tend to grow fat and weak, collapsing under their own excess.

Here's more, from about 14 months ago:

Dailymotion - Yuri Bezmenov, a video from onmyway02. bezmenov, KGB, yuri, soviet, marxism

The election of Barack Obama was an enormous coup for these forces.
 

Steinweg9

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2. They weren't three of the five oldest banks, they were the three of the five oldest INVESTMENT BANKS...big difference. as for the two that are "barely surviving", that is a complete joke...Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are two of the most powerful financial machines in the world


I'd been dreading seeing my "next" JP Morgan statement -- and when it came, a couple of weeks ago, it hadn't gone down at all. I just laughed.
 

Mem

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No it won't happen, at least not in the next 100 years. 50 is a nice tidy number.
 

Fuzzy_

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No it won't happen, at least not in the next 100 years. 50 is a nice tidy number.

A year ago, Fuzzy would probably have agreed with you. This Russian guy is a loon, but a stand-off between red states and the federal government is beginning. Fuzzy doesn't care for conspiracy theories, but this one is different. With Kansas and Missouri openly stating that they will arrest any federal agent who enforces gun control in their states, it seems as if Alex Jones is getting his wish. Maybe he'll be the next Jefferson Davies.
 

ConanTheBarber

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A year ago, Fuzzy would probably have agreed with you. This Russian guy is a loon, but a stand-off between red states and the federal government is beginning. Fuzzy doesn't care for conspiracy theories, but this one is different. With Kansas and Missouri openly stating that they will arrest any federal agent who enforces gun control in their states, it seems as if Alex Jones is getting his wish. Maybe he'll be the next Jefferson Davies.
Fixed that fer yuh, Fuzz.
Or were U jokin?
 

B_Nick8

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I think you give Americans too much credit. I sat with my mouth agape as Rubi explained being mystified by Americans driving up to Canada with skis on their roof expecting to enjoy the slopes.... in JULY.

I remember that like it was yesterday. What an incredible pleasure it is to see any thread with your name attached, Jase. I miss you madly.

Here's how most Americans view Canada:
-Basically the 51st state
-Funny looking money
-Always snowy
-Bizarre obsession with hockey (drop "bizarre" if you're from a region of the US where hockey is slightly popular)
-Lower drinking age than the US
-Much more expensive books

Sad, but true. God, I hate "most" Americans.

A year ago, Fuzzy would probably have agreed with you. This Russian guy is a loon, but a stand-off between red states and the federal government is beginning. Fuzzy doesn't care for conspiracy theories, but this one is different. With Kansas and Missouri openly stating that they will arrest any federal agent who enforces gun control in their states, it seems as if Alex Jones is getting his wish. Maybe he'll be the next Jefferson Davies.

Leave it to you to bump a five year old thread. Something must have been on your mind. Call me; it's been too long. P.S. You remember Oktoberfest, don't you?! :wink: