Scottish Independence

mas2304

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Because Westminster is concerned with the whole of the Uk and it's dependancies and not just English interest, whereas the Scotland and Wales can just concerntate on doing what is best for them without having to consider us the English, I am only saying that England would benifit from its own dedicated assessmbly, Westminster can still run the Uk but with fair and equal input from the different assembly's - if it's good enough for Scotland and Wales then it's good enough for us. But, perhaps all this will be a mute point once both Scotland and Wales have their independence, because then it will be an English parliament- did you know that Scottish people can have a Scottish passport? But English have to have a Bristish passport, like I said I am proud to be English, it's about time more English people where as well.
 

Jason

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I just don't see Scotland voting for independence. Polls are showing that a NO vote is most likely, and once people hear just how terrible the economic position would be I think we're looking at a big NO vote. An independent Wales is even less likely. Some of the Unionists in NI would quite like an independent NI, but that's a passport for a bloodbath.

The problems around the West Lothian Question do not really cause problems unless Scottish votes change the political balance at Westminster. With a bit of luck we're going to see Labour out of power for the forseeable, so we can live with this. Possibly we do need some sort of English grand committee.

The big problem for England of an independent Scotland is that it would be horribly poor, and that would have consequences for England. The worst-case scenario is that an independent Scotland may feel it has some continued claim on England with a terrorist group arising demanding subsidy from England.
 

mas2304

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I am a great believer that you pay your tax to the country you reside in, you are after all gaining the benifits from living in that region, however, if non English wanted to pay their tax back to their home country, that fine by me, as long as they pay for their own health cover, sickness benifits and don't claim benifits from the English government if they have not contributed.
 

Drifterwood

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The British government doesn't let me do that with money I make overseas. This is one of the problems for the Scots, Welsh and Irish, many of our best people end up working in England. If we had their tax back then you wouldn't consider us such a burden perhaps.
 

mas2304

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I have to say I don't know that much about the tax/wages situation when working overseas, so would not like to comment on that, caus I would make myself sound like a right numpty! Interesting use of the word "Burden" have to say, I don't consider Scotland, Wales or NI to be a burden, together we do make up the United kingdom and Great Briton, if independance is achieved then these great historical institutions will be no more. The Scottish for the most part ( and this is a big generalisation) have always resented the English, whereas most English don't understand why and to be honest don't really care! I just don't believe an independent Scotland whould improve that, and if things do go "tits" up for an independant Scotland, the English will still get the blame for it all. There's no doubt that as a country in it's own right, independent of Scotland, Wales and NI, England would be more prosperous country, - I think the whole independance issue is not sorly the decision for nation who wants it, but a question that the whole union should be aware off and have a say on.
 

Jason

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... you wouldn't consider us such a burden perhaps.

The financial issues around independence are only half the story - there's also the cultural issues around the relationship of the three smaller home nations with England.

Ireland has for the last century defined its history in terms of what nasty English people have done to nice Irish people. To an extent this is the mantra now coming out of Scotland. Now Ireland has had nearly a century of independence and has to begin accepting its own responsibility for its current position - I really don't think the Irish can hold England responsible for the euro cock up. Scotland hasn't yet had the chance to crash under its own independence.

The burden the English mostly feel is the anti-English rhetoric. I wasn't with Oliver Cromwell in Ireland. I am not responsible for the potato famine. I didn't give the order for the 1916 Easter Sunday rebels to be executed. Similarly I didn't execute Braveheart and haven't shot the Loch Ness Monster. Ireland still receives enormous friendship from England, even after a very troubled century. It would be nice if Ireland could move on with the narrative. Similarly Scotland, even if independent and broke, would receive much goodwill from England.
 

mas2304

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The financial issues around independence are only half the story - there's also the cultural issues around the relationship of the three smaller home nations with England.

Ireland has for the last century defined its history in terms of what nasty English people have done to nice Irish people. To an extent this is the mantra now coming out of Scotland. Now Ireland has had nearly a century of independence and has to begin accepting its own responsibility for its current position - I really don't think the Irish can hold England responsible for the euro cock up. Scotland hasn't yet had the chance to crash under its own independence.

The burden the English mostly feel is the anti-English rhetoric. I wasn't with Oliver Cromwell in Ireland. I am not responsible for the potato famine. I didn't give the order for the 1916 Easter Sunday rebels to be executed. Similarly I didn't execute Braveheart and haven't shot the Loch Ness Monster. Ireland still receives enormous friendship from England, even after a very troubled century. It would be nice if Ireland could move on with the narrative. Similarly Scotland, even if independent and broke, would receive much goodwill from England.

Well said!
 

LuciferChild

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well soon or later catalunha will be a small country out of spain borders, why not scotland? lets see what is the will of the people, at least they make referendums asking the people what they want....
 

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well soon or later catalunha will be a small country out of spain borders, why not scotland? lets see what is the will of the people, at least they make referendums asking the people what they want....

I'm all in favour of self-determination.

But there's a BUT.

Territories that vote for independence have got to really want this.

First it is a decision that has to be made with care. An independent Scotland would have to take its share of debts from the UK, accept the loss of UK defence expenditure in Scotland (its biggest industry), accept a likely real frontier with England (if Scotland joins the EU it would have to join Schengen), accept loss of access to many UK facilities. This is a high price.

Second it is not a decision that can easily be revoked. If Scotland goes independent and goes broke (and the two are pretty much linked IMO) then Scotland cannot reasonably expect England to simply pick up the bill and let Scotland rejoin the UK. For that matter Scotland cannot expect to be admitted to the euro unless it can demonstrate stability, and cannot expect EZ bailouts.

Nearly a century ago Ireland decided to leave the UK. Financially this has been a disaster. Ireland is poorer than the UK and poorer than any region within the UK. Culturally it may have made people happy - or may not, I don't think anyone really knows. Had Ireland remained within the UK we would presumably now have a devolved parliament for the whole island of Ireland.
 
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As an American of multi-ethnic British background I would hate to see Scotland break away. I think that the cultures, histories and people are much to intertwined at this point for it to make any practical sense IMHO.

As the old saying goes "united we stand, divided we fall".
 

123scotty

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did you know that Scottish people can have a Scottish passport? But English have to have a Bristish passport, like I said I am proud to be English, it's about time more English people where as well.

where is this scottish passport. ive never seen one?
 

Jason

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As an American of multi-ethnic British background I would hate to see Scotland break away. I think that the cultures, histories and people are much to intertwined at this point for it to make any practical sense IMHO.

As the old saying goes "united we stand, divided we fall".

Undoubtedly.

I think we have a long and messy debate which will lead to Scotland voting for the union. During the debate many Scottish companies will move to England just in case, business that would have gone to Scotland will go elsewhere, and new defence expenditure in the UK will not go to Scotland. The people of Scotland have elected a government that is doing them a lot of damage.
 

123scotty

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Undoubtedly.

I think we have a long and messy debate which will lead to Scotland voting for the union. During the debate many Scottish companies will move to England just in case, business that would have gone to Scotland will go elsewhere, and new defence expenditure in the UK will not go to Scotland. The people of Scotland have elected a government that is doing them a lot of damage.

can anyone name the companies that are moving to england. as far as i know there has only been one. as for inward investment it has actually gone up since the snp has got control at holyrood. the main problem is who's figures do you believe holyrood or westminster. both have there own agenda. westminster wants to paint the figures black and holyrood well wants to tartanise them.
 

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can anyone name the companies that are moving to england. as far as i know there has only been one. as for inward investment it has actually gone up since the snp has got control at holyrood. the main problem is who's figures do you believe holyrood or westminster. both have there own agenda. westminster wants to paint the figures black and holyrood well wants to tartanise them.

The people who matter will believe neither Holyrood nor Westminster - they will do their own research. These are the really big players - stock market dealers and bond dealers. I think the political rhetoric coming from Holyrood and Westminster is close to irrelevant in this instance.

There certainly are small companies moving out of Scotland or saying they will move, for example Michelle Mone will move to England if Scotland becomes independent | Scotland | STV News Maybe there are some moving the other way.

The real issue is the dozen or so big players in finance, mostly based in Edinburgh, which are a big part of the Scottish economy. I doubt these will publicly state their policy, so we're left with whispering on the old boy network. The whisper is that there is no advantage in staying in Scotland so most will leave - but this sort of story soon gets politicised. I think they would leave - I cannot see any reason whatsoever for (say) an insurance company with UK-wide business and trading in sterling to stay in Edinburgh. Whether Scotland does better or worse than the rest of the UK is irrelevant - the strains on their business come when the performance is different.

My personal view is that the UK should leave the EU irrespective of the financial consequencies (which many believe would hurt the UK). By analogy I have no problem with the idea of Scotland leaving the UK if this is what the people of Scotland wish, but I think Scotland should leave because it wants to be independent, not because of some claimed financial advantage. I'm pretty sure that the best case scenario sees flight of defence and finance industries (the two big ones) plus a share of the UK national debt which would attract much higher bond yields as smaller countries are higher risk. The worst case scenario is that Scotland collapses, as Greece. The UK debt per head of population is comparable to that of Greece - a Greek-style meltdown for an independent Scotland is undoubtedly a possibility.

I think SNP should be campaigning for the supremacy of Scots law, the distinctive culture of Scotland, the respect for Kirk and school, the social cohesion of the nation - and setting out that all these are values worth paying for with a loss of wealth. This is a powerful argument. The economic fudge is IMO just that - I do not see any rational argument that can counter the idea that an independent Scotland would be somewhat poorer. The prudent response would be to acknowledge the problem and to plan for it to avoid a Greek-style meltdown.

Neither Holyrood nor Westminster can control the markets. I think even talking about independence poses economic risks for Scotland (and therefore for the UK). I cannot see any proper reason for not holding a referendum ASAP to get the uncertainty out of the way.
 

dandelion

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Strikes me it would be very difficult to force Scotland to take on a proportion of british debt. If Scotland simply refused to pay then all the people affected would be coming straight back at the British parliament which issued the debt. The result would be a british default if they refused to accept the liability. Cant see Cameron wanting to deal with that!

i agree, this isnt really about money. If scots want independence they might have to fight for it through civil disobedience, etc. I dont see the English public standing for the army occupying Scotland to keep it British against the wishes of the people. I do see lots of people from an independant Scotland coming to England to work and sending home money. It might mean poverty for Scotland for a while but the country would stabilise and be free. depends what is important to you.
 

loncam

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The scots are welcome to independence if the majority of their citizens want it. That is a decision for the scottish people. By no means all of them want it!
 

Jason

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The issues of Scottish independence will be resolved within the framework of the 1978 Vienna Convention on Succession States, and therefore administered under international law through the UN.

Scotland comes under the category of succession of a part of a state where the UK is considered the continuing state (it is not seeking to break away from Scotland and is also far larger) which means that clean slate rules (for former colonies) do NOT apply. Scotland would be bound by all previous UK treaties, though could subsequently negotiate its own changes as an independent nation. Scotland would have its share of UK debt. Usually (always?) debts are allocated on a proportional basis by population. Existing UK bonds would be split creating a UK bond and a Scottish bond. Scotland would have responsibility for its own debt. The process would legally separate the currencies - the pound sterling and Scots would start on parity but move apart (unless the central banks traded to maintain a peg, a decision for Scotland).

As an independent state Scotland could make the decision to default on its debt. However it could forget about raising money in the bond markets, and as Scotland would start with a yearly deficit this would be an immediate problem. It would also prevent EU membership for many years. I don't think this is possible - Scotland would simply have to accept its debt.

Scotland's membership of the EU is moot. The UN would see existing UK treaties as continuing - however the EU treaties specifically require successor states to reapply - and as the point of the EU is ever-closer union the EU doesn't intrinsically see the point of succession. Possibly an agreement would be reached, but Spain has announced that she would veto Scottish EU membership.

The North Sea border between the UK and Scotland would have to be established. The UN has a mechanical way of doing this - it takes the trend line of the land border and extends it out to sea. In this case the trend Gretna Green to Berwick is SW to NE and the line goes way north of what the SNP claim. There are also special issues around the UK's maritime defence which were successfully claimed when Ireland became independent and may be claimed in the event of Scottish independence - again the UN would look at this, but with NATO.

I think the people of Scotland will face an independence referendum with:
* Spanish veto on continued EU membership.
* UN setting proportion of national debt - which Scotland cannot sustain.
* IMF setting out austerity that will be necessary to support IMF bailout
* clear opposition from USA and EU.
* The English campaigning for Scottish independence.

The bond markets are presently rating the chance of Scottish independence at zero - otherwise they would be seeing a proportion of every UK bond as higher risk and the yields on UK bonds would be higher.
 

123scotty

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can i now confuse the issue. there is a third option now bounding around. nick named devolution max. could this be the answer. but will the question be allowed on the referendum. as i have seen so far westminster is saying to holyrood the question can only be yes or no. this could force a yes vote. as the majority people are fed up with the present system. but do not want full independence.
 

Jason

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The present settlement of the EuroZone is a form of devolution max. The nation states of Europe had (until the Fiscal Union Compact) fiscal independence and could set their own budgets. I think just about everyone now agrees that it doesn't work.

In the EZ we now have the Fiscal Union Compact. This gives the 17 EZ nations less freedom than Scotland is asking for through devolution max.

The problem for England, Wales and NI is that Devo Max would destabilise them just as no fiscal union has allowed Club Med to destabilise the euro. I don't see any way that the UK could consider Devo Max without the mandate of the whole UK in a referendum - and zero chance of it being supported. Devo Max for Scotland is all the benefits of devolution to Scotland and all the costs to the UK. It is a non starter.
 
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