Scottish Independence

[desilover]

let them go....i doubt they would be poorer, but the issue of oil is moot since there are far more cheaper producers out there. North sea oil was only ever an issue as it propped up the economy in the 70s and to some extent Thatcher. We're not Nigeria or Oman, we don't need to export oil en masse.

 

[Jason]

George Osborne has just announced half a billion pounds worth of investment in the UK's nuclear submarine facility on the River Clyde, which is seen as the start of many billions of pounds of UK investment both safeguarding and creating thousands of jobs in Scotland. This is a strong commitment to the Union.

It is quite possible that we are looking at a second independence referendum, perhaps triggered by SNP success in the Scottish parliament elections next year. If we have a second referendum then it will be that exercise that will determine the future of Scotland. The existing vote is that 55% of people in Scotland back the Union. If the people of Scotland back independence then it will of course happen.

Were independence to happen it would be a disaster, both for the people of Scotland and the whole UK. SNP offer fantasy economics, fantasy use of sterling, fantasy membership of the EU. The economic collapse of an independent Scotland run by SNP is guaranteed (though an independent Scotland with sensible government could remain viable, though this option doesn't seem to be on the table). I think the economic collapse would be so total that we may well be looking at civil war. I think we would certainly be looking at a process of Balkanisation. Just before the last referendum Shetland, Orkney and the Western Isles announced that they would subsequently hold their own referendums. I have little doubt that the same would happen after a second referendum, and that they would vote to break from Scotland and each negotiate a status modelled on that of the Isle of Man and Channel Islands. Shetland and Orkney have most of "Scotland's" oil. As Scotland collapsed there would be interest in other parts of Scotland for breaking away. The most obvious candidates are the rural areas just north of the border.

My personal view is that SNP will not request another referendum as they know they couldn't win. The difficulty they will have is selling this decision to their own supporters.

 

[ozwestcoastboy]

Here in Australia this evening we have a FOUR CORNERS program that examines the question of whether Boris Johnson could be the last PM of the United Kingdom as we know it, his pro-Brexit mania resulting in Scotland becoming an independent nation and happy EU member . . .
Boris Johnson could go down in history as the man who won Brexit and lost Scotland

 

[Drifterwood]

Here in Australia this evening we have a FOUR CORNERS program that examines the question of whether Boris Johnson could be the last PM of the United Kingdom as we know it, his pro-Brexit mania resulting in Scotland becoming an independent nation and happy EU member . . .
Boris Johnson could go down in history as the man who won Brexit and lost Scotland

Speaking from Wales, the loss of Scotland would be very significant to our future in what was left. Wales did vote to leave, but as in everything in Wales, this is skewed by the population imbalance in the old labour South. I can also see bullets flying in Northern Ireland if Scotland goes.

The problem as ever is the Tories. Their heartland in lowland Britain makes them insensitive to the other nations. Leaving the EU could well be the enough is enough moment.

 

[Jason]

Speaking from Wales, the loss of Scotland would be very significant to our future in what was left. Wales did vote to leave, but as in everything in Wales, this is skewed by the population imbalance in the old labour South. I can also see bullets flying in Northern Ireland if Scotland goes.

The problem as ever is the Tories. Their heartland in lowland Britain makes them insensitive to the other nations. Leaving the EU could well be the enough is enough moment.

There is a geographical distribution of sorts to UK political parties - Conservatives in S England, Lab in Mids and North. However the last decade has shown this split weakening. Con have lost some parts of the South while making inroads in Mids and North.

Look at the present Con cabinet. Two of the three great offices of state are held by ethnic minorities. Minsisters come from north and south of England. I would like to see more representation from Wales and Scotland, but that's a work in progress. The idea that Con purely represent the English shires just isn't the case.

The status of Scotland is up to the people of Scotland. We need Brexit done. If there truly is a demand from Scotland for a referendum then there must be one. Post-Brexit the issues will be different.

 

[Drifterwood]

There is a geographical distribution of sorts to UK political parties - Conservatives in S England, Lab in Mids and North. However the last decade has shown this split weakening. Con have lost some parts of the South while making inroads in Mids and North.

Look at the present Con cabinet. Two of the three great offices of state are held by ethnic minorities. Minsisters come from north and south of England. I would like to see more representation from Wales and Scotland, but that's a work in progress. The idea that Con purely represent the English shires just isn't the case.

The status of Scotland is up to the people of Scotland. We need Brexit done. If there truly is a demand from Scotland for a referendum then there must be one. Post-Brexit the issues will be different.

I can tell you, Jase, that the mood in North Wales has and is changing. The Tories have seven of fourty seats and only one of those has a majority higher than the seat just lost in Brecon. Two are a few hundred. The Tories could well fall to three seats if Boris goes to the country. That is less than 10%. So, I repeat, the Tories are increasingly remote in Wales, as in Scotland.

 

[ichdeutscher]

Scottish independence: New poll shows clear majority for yes vote

Should we continue the discussion now?

 

[Jason]

Scottish independence: New poll shows clear majority for yes vote

Should we continue the discussion now?

Yes it should be discussed. A campaign gives people time to look at issues and consider what they want. A poll, particularly on the independence question, is equivalent to asking people if they feel proud of Scotland. There can be a lot of difference between polls and votes, as the Brexit vote showed.

Where the issue is changing fast is the English response. There is now a clear majority in England in favour of Scottish independence.

The independence vote was set out as a once in a generation vote. It is very disruptive to have such votes and it is a jolly nuisance that one seems to be needed. However that does seem to be how it is. One approach would be to offer Scotland a binary choice - independence, or remain within the union but with an end to devo max. This binary choice would be best for England as either outcome would be good. What isn't working is devo max which is just a propaganda platform for the nationalists.

 

[DiamondJoe]

This binary choice would be best for England as either outcome would be good. What isn't working is devo max which is just a propaganda platform for the nationalists.

No - Blair realised that devolution was a safety valve, better to grant limited powers than let the nationalists keep preaching about how everything would be better under them.

The independence referendum was partially sold to the Scots on the grounds that the UK was part of the EU.

Cameron eff'd it up with his EU referendum (the he expected to win 'cos that fat-face Eton cunt always got everything he ever wanted don'tchknow).

Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain but since then the thrashings of the Westminster government, initially rudderless under May, then full-steam ahead over the cliff edge with Johnson added to the "calm and steady" approach to Covid of Sturgeon makes a lot of Scots think they'd be better off out of the UK.

Devo max is not what allowed the Scots Nats to proliferate - it was the failure of successive Conservative governments to prevent an internal squabble about Europe become a national hobby horse.

 

[1342602]

It will never happen and they have been told that. And they even voted to stay when they had the chance. So why waste time and energy and more importantly money trying to make nothing happen ? Personnally i say let them have it, so they got a little bit of expensive oil wheres that going to get them, the EU isnt interested in taking another skint country on either. The snp leader just hellbent on making a name for herself at any cost.