Second Korean War?

[wofg]

With the suspense and hatred between north and south korea building, many are assuming the north will attack any moment. in your opinion, should the US help south korea? can we afford to get involved in another war and lose our soldiers?

 

[TomCat84]

Trust me, North Korea won't directly attack the South in some massive new war. They are perfectly aware that they'd get blown off the face of the Earth. Yes, we should help them. If Seoul is attacked, or the North uses nuclear weapons. We send a few ICBMs their way.

 

[TomCat84]

I have confidence that China will threaten North Korea with massive sanctions should they choose to attack the South. China has ZERO desire for a major war on their borders.

 

[B_Nick4444]

should North Korea launch an attack, Seoul (and much of South Korea, and part of Japan) would be destroyed before any response could be launched by anyone

I don't feel we should be involved, unless we see a good opportunity to obliterate the PRC ... but, of course, Obama is in office ....

 

[TomCat84]

should North Korea launch an attack, Seoul (and much of South Korea, and part of Japan) would be destroyed before any response could be launched by anyone

I don't feel we should be involved, unless we see a good opportunity to obliterate the PRC ... but, of course, Obama is in office ....

I disagree. The South Koreans are more militarily advanced than you give them credit for. Also, were the North Koreans to launch a nuclear missile, you can be sure that US satellites/spies would know when it happened, and where it came from. A harsh response would follow soon after. And nuclear weapons are the only way Seoul is going to be completely destroyed. I'll ignore the Obama-bashing part of your paragraph.

 

[ColoradoGuy]

You raise an interesting question about the possibility of war, but there is little doubt that the US would become involved in any conflict; the US is bound by treaty to come to the aid of South Korea. While it would be difficult, the US could probably pull off three simultaneous wars. Whether or not the command and control infrastructure is there for that to be done effectively remains to be seen, but Americans have a lot of pluck and determination when they need to. As to the the loss of life, it is unavoidable -- even in peacetime, wearing a uniform is a dangerous profession.

I am hoping that the situation calms down and there are three factors that may ensure that it does:

1) History. Most of North Korea's actions are, by design, akin to the temper tantrums of a spoiled child. You know: enough to agitate, but not enough to merit serious punishment. The sinking of the Cheonan is the exception. With over 50 lives lost and the North's suspension of the naval "red phone" that had existed between North and South Korea for the past few years, things have heated up beyond the typical posturing, threats and minor provocations. Having said that, the lack of additional offensive actions and the threat of moving against any South Korean ships that cross into its waters almost make it sound that the North is retreating. (This sounds antithetical, but it's actually a retreating move.) A retreat could be consistent with the theory that the torpedo that was launched was a mistake. Perhaps a warning shot, meant to intimidate, that went awry? A misinterpreted command? Who knows? It wouldn't be the first time. Unfortunately, the stakes have now been raised and the South will necessarily respond in kind immediately to any further actions. North Korea knows this and that could be part of the reason for the distancing.

2) Regime change. Kim Jong-il is corrupt (more so than your average dictator) and has provided relatively rudderless leadership since assuming power from his father in the early 90s. Taking into account his failing health and the fact that not a whole lot has changed or improved during his time in power and you have a tenuous transition at best. Some argue that a war or even heightened military awareness would aid the handover of power from Kim Jong-il to his son, Kim Jong-un. This just isn't likely. Dictatorships need relative calm and order in order to maintain power... transitioning power is very difficult anyway, but in times of stress, it's nearly impossible. A war -- or threat of war -- would create a power vacuum in North Korea. On one side would be the untested 27-year old son of Kim Jong-il and on the other would be his military leadership. Neither side would be believe that the other has its best interests in mind and the urgency of war (even just the prospect of war) could create an opportunity for a coup d'etat. Kim Jong-il may be corrupt, but he's not entirely stupid.

3) Regional interests. China has no interest in a war... at least not now or in the foreseeable future. Its economic interests would suffer if war broke out. Its diplomatic posture would suffer if war broke out -- after all, for years China has attempted to persuade the rest of the world that it is capable of keeping peace in the East. And, if a war broke out, China would be forced to either side with North Korea (not smart) or join the UN task force that would be formed to put an end to the fighting and most likely North Korea, as it we know it (also not smart, if you're China). Since there is no ability to sit on the fence, China knows it must act to dampen the current hostilities. They'll make nice with North Korea (a strong motivation is averting the horror of finding a new-found enemy on your border with nuclear weapons) and convince the leadership that further actions will only jeopardize the North as well as China's ability to hold off the West. It's not an entirely satisfactory strategy, but for China, it defers the question of what to do with North Korea for the time being.

What happens next? Who knows. Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

 

[TurkeyWithaSunburn]

Technically they are still at war. They signed a truce not a peace treaty.
Korean War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The North likes to yell and scream when they want attention.

 

[tripod]

South Korea fired upon and damaged a North Korean vessel last November.

The South Korean ship fired upon the North Korean ship for allegedly trespassing across it's border. A North Korean officer was killed and three sailors were wounded in that incident.

This was a retaliation albeit a heavy handed one. Nobody knows if the order to fire the torpedo was given by Kin Jong Il or some lower level commander.

This is the usual tit for tat but is being exploited by the U.S. to strengthen the already Draconian sanctions. These sanctions are meant to strangle the regime out of existence. Fuck if it ain't a slow death and Kim Jong's regime is harder to snuff out than anyone thought (China has always found N.K.'s existence to be useful...).

There won't be any escalation... I mean the chances are really slim.

 

[B_talltpaguy]

^Depends if China has calculated that it's time to cash in one of their bigger gambits with the US, to curry favorable results from ongoing trade and currency issues.

 

[B_talltpaguy]

^Nice spam, dipshit.

 

[B_spiker067]

The ONLY thing propping up North Korea is China; a fact for many years running now. It is apparent that China wants to keep N. Korea as it is being a buffer between China and the economic and political success that is S. Korea. N. Korea is the distraction. China is the issue.

Why would China fear a United Korea? Why would they work against it? What is China doing in Hong Kong these days?

 

[B_spiker067]

^Nice spam, dipshit.

Hahaha......Hmmmm.... http://www.lpsg.org/182651-the-politics-forum-is-changing.html#post2748240

Given my almost decade of experience running such forums, I know of several things that could be done...
...
'strikes' would include things such as posting curse/swear words... Discriminatory language... Personal attacks/name calling... trolling... post whoring/flooding... persistent repetition of concepts well understood to be espoused by a certain member.

And if that were the ONLY example.

 

[B_talltpaguy]

^Wow, you're REALLY desperate to 'win' a point on me, aren't you?

Dude, the 'person' I just called dipshit is a commercial spammer and won't ever see the post anyways (it's probably a 'bot, not a person). Maybe you don't know what that means, and what their posts look like, but I most certainly do, and reported him as such.

lol... You're so clueless, it's almost endearing... Almost.

 

[B_spiker067]

^Wow, you're REALLY desperate to 'win' a point on me, aren't you?

Dude, the 'person' I just called dipshit is a commercial spammer and won't ever see the post anyways (it's probably a 'bot). Maybe you don't know what that means, and what their posts look like, but I most certainly do, and reported him as such.

lol... You're so clueless, it's almost endearing... Almost.

A bot that posts on topic and registers enough to add a tag line that you answer personally with the patented "dipshit" name calling? Why would someone answer an obvious bot? Does TPA make friends with bots? What is wrong with a signature having a hair care product link?

Hahahahaha. Clever bots. I guess they can't get a Turin's test past your massive intellect.

P.S. When you don't get rebuttals it doesn't mean you won. It means who cares. Big , big difference.

 

[B_talltpaguy]

^It's not a signature, it's embedded in the post and made to look like a sigline (quote the post and you'll see)... Also, it 'copy/pasted' 75 words of the first post in this thread that actually has 75 words to copy/paste, and then cut off the quote with no reply. Lastly, the IP of the domain 'http://www.styleunion.co.uk/" pops up on a DNSBL spam service I subscribe to.

Again, thanks for trolling me and trying oh so hard to make me look bad, but you're only revealing yourself to be the fool.

 

[B_spiker067]

I was getting the impression that you had a hand in running this website.

Still doesn't explain the counter posting to a bot post.

 

[B_talltpaguy]

^And you doing what amounts to cyberstalking me doesn't explain your interest in following me around like a lost puppy dog... Are you THAT turned on by the pics I have posted of my big, fat cock? I know my cock is meaty and has lovely veins coursing along it considerable length, but can you PLEASE keep your lusty obsession to yourself? Sorry, but I don't swing that way.

 

[B_spiker067]

^And you doing what amounts to cyberstalking me doesn't explain your interest in following me around like a lost puppy dog... Are you THAT turned on by the pics I have posted of my big, fat cock? I know my cock is meaty and has lovely veins coursing along it considerable length, but can you PLEASE keep your lusty obsession to yourself? Sorry, but I don't swing that way.

Hahahaha.... to self-absorbed you are.

 

[SilverTrain]

This is a magnificent post. The politics sub-forum redeemed, if even for just a few moments.

Kudos, and bless you for your contribution.

You raise an interesting question about the possibility of war, but there is little doubt that the US would become involved in any conflict; the US is bound by treaty to come to the aid of South Korea. While it would be difficult, the US could probably pull off three simultaneous wars. Whether or not the command and control infrastructure is there for that to be done effectively remains to be seen, but Americans have a lot of pluck and determination when they need to. As to the the loss of life, it is unavoidable -- even in peacetime, wearing a uniform is a dangerous profession.

I am hoping that the situation calms down and there are three factors that may ensure that it does:

1) History. Most of North Korea's actions are, by design, akin to the temper tantrums of a spoiled child. You know: enough to agitate, but not enough to merit serious punishment. The sinking of the Cheonan is the exception. With over 50 lives lost and the North's suspension of the naval "red phone" that had existed between North and South Korea for the past few years, things have heated up beyond the typical posturing, threats and minor provocations. Having said that, the lack of additional offensive actions and the threat of moving against any South Korean ships that cross into its waters almost make it sound that the North is retreating. (This sounds antithetical, but it's actually a retreating move.) A retreat could be consistent with the theory that the torpedo that was launched was a mistake. Perhaps a warning shot, meant to intimidate, that went awry? A misinterpreted command? Who knows? It wouldn't be the first time. Unfortunately, the stakes have now been raised and the South will necessarily respond in kind immediately to any further actions. North Korea knows this and that could be part of the reason for the distancing.

2) Regime change. Kim Jong-il is corrupt (more so than your average dictator) and has provided relatively rudderless leadership since assuming power from his father in the early 90s. Taking into account his failing health and the fact that not a whole lot has changed or improved during his time in power and you have a tenuous transition at best. Some argue that a war or even heightened military awareness would aid the handover of power from Kim Jong-il to his son, Kim Jong-un. This just isn't likely. Dictatorships need relative calm and order in order to maintain power... transitioning power is very difficult anyway, but in times of stress, it's nearly impossible. A war -- or threat of war -- would create a power vacuum in North Korea. On one side would be the untested 27-year old son of Kim Jong-il and on the other would be his military leadership. Neither side would be believe that the other has its best interests in mind and the urgency of war (even just the prospect of war) could create an opportunity for a coup d'etat. Kim Jong-il may be corrupt, but he's not entirely stupid.

3) Regional interests. China has no interest in a war... at least not now or in the foreseeable future. Its economic interests would suffer if war broke out. Its diplomatic posture would suffer if war broke out -- after all, for years China has attempted to persuade the rest of the world that it is capable of keeping peace in the East. And, if a war broke out, China would be forced to either side with North Korea (not smart) or join the UN task force that would be formed to put an end to the fighting and most likely North Korea, as it we know it (also not smart, if you're China). Since there is no ability to sit on the fence, China knows it must act to dampen the current hostilities. They'll make nice with North Korea (a strong motivation is averting the horror of finding a new-found enemy on your border with nuclear weapons) and convince the leadership that further actions will only jeopardize the North as well as China's ability to hold off the West. It's not an entirely satisfactory strategy, but for China, it defers the question of what to do with North Korea for the time being.

What happens next? Who knows. Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

 

[B_talltpaguy]

^I agree, that was a great post!