Snap uk election..

[dandelion]

There is another interesting statistic from yougov, 45% of conservative remain supporters believe there will be no negative impact on the Uk from leaving the EU.

So that is the proportion of conservative leave, which is 68% of all conservatives, who are in for a shock. About 1/3 of conservative supporters are labouring under the delusion that brexit will be painless. This is the block who will change their vote when they discover they are wrong. Then there are the ones who are uncertain, who will also discover brexit has a cost.

These numbers beneath the surface are electoral poison waiting to be relased for the conservatives. That is why they do not want to leave the EU, because they know that if they do, they will be punished massively in the future.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...9pum7c5c4j/AnthonyResults_170613_Brexit_W.pdf

 

[southeastone]

Which poll? The election shows 40% of the people voted labour against hard brexit and 40% voted tory for hard brexit. 10% voted for more remain parties. Not clear what happened to the remainder.

.

Since the election yougov have done this poll; https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/15/majority-favour-pushing-brexit-many-are-tempted-so/

It shows 44% "hard leavers" 26%"soft leavers" and only 21% remainers

You keep saying labour voters were remain/soft leavers but in a previous post I asked and you failed to answer, what is "soft brexit"?
Labour have stated categorically they will take us out of the single market and the customs union and control immigration as requested by the unions, please define how that is different to the conservative stance?

Corbyn can spout what he likes about protecting jobs but if he does as he promises he will be in no different position to the tories at least the conservatives are telling it as it is.

So again I ask what is this "soft" brexit you say labour will give? (don't just copy/paste the manifesto, you know it is not the true picture)

 

[southeastone]

Brexit does not now have the support of the British people.

Latest post election poll;

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/15/majority-favour-pushing-brexit-many-are-tempted-so/

 

[dandelion]

Labour have stated categorically they will take us out of the single market and the customs union and control immigration as requested by the unions, please define how that is different to the conservative stance?

I already answered that question,might be a different thread. if you read the manifestos they both say we should leave the EU, but the conservatives place reducing immigration, escaping U control, etc, as the red lines. Whereas labour place ensuring the economy continues to do well as the red line.

If you follow that logic, the conservatives would do hard brexit come what May, and that is how they campaigned. Whereas Labour would choose an option they believe is best for the economy, which would be 'Norway'', or even no brexit.

Even the conservatives have not 'stated categorically' they will take us out of the single market. Rather, what they have stated is that they are looking for a unique deal, where somehow they keep the benefits and lose percived disadvantages. But also conservatives accept the need for continued high immigration. They also seem to accept paying money to the EU for the deal.

Not too much is being said about acepting EU control either. It is quite hard to se how this can be avoided if there is any deal whatever. The EU itself is an international quango set up to administer a treaty. Why would the members want to set up another one just to adminster a treaty with the UK? Why would we, beyond cussedness. Complaining that the EU/commission/parliament/ court administer the rules we asked them to administer is rather absurd. Any new trade deal we make with anyone will be administered by some international quango to which we will have to surrender sovereignty. And leave are committed to entering into such new deals.

So again I ask what is this "soft" brexit you say labour will give? (don't just copy/paste the manifesto, you know it is not the true picture)

Why is it not the true picture? What makes you think any other picture is more likely? I think it a lot more likely the conservatives will ditch their manifsto than that labour will. The conservatives lost in this election and labour gained. Genrally it is the losers who change their policy.

45% of conservative leave believe as you seem to do that there will be no negative consequences from Brexit. They are wrong. What do you think will happen to their support for leave/con when they are forced by events to accept that they are wrong?

If the campaign had run another month, there is a good chance labour might have won. Because leave are jumping ship and beginning to realise it might not have been such a good idea.

It seems likely the fire would have played into labour support against cuts. The mood music is that the nation has had too many cuts, and brexit will mean more.

 

[southeastone]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/labour-stuck-eu-muddle-leaders-fail-agree-single-market-policy/

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-single-market-jeremy-corbyn_uk_593d320ee4b02402687a2460
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-single-market-jeremy-corbyn_uk_593d320ee4b02402687a2460
Seems corbyn has different ideas to you

 

[dandelion]

The cladding is designed so that it won't go up in flames. Basically you can put a blow-torch on it and it won't burn.

No, it isnt. My reaction was that if it is packed with glass fibre insultion, it would not burn. But apparently they use fire resistant material, not fireproof. Also, perhaps you remember the Falklands war, and HMS Sheffield? I just looked it up to check, and interestingly it says that the story at the time that Sheffield burnt so fast because it was made of aluminium was incorrect. Because aluminium superstructure had already been ditched because of past experience in fires, where the metal just burnt. As it did on the outside of this tower block. It might take a bit to get it going, but once you have the whole thing is one massive chimney. Seems to have started at the bottom from where it would naturally spread up.

It is all a bit reminiscent of the king's cross underground fire. There they discovered that fire resistant wooden escalators turned out not to be fire proof.

A possible view is that the cladding put on the building wasn't in fact the cladding that should have been put on but an alternative (and cheaper) substance. Different types of cladding are produced for different uses. If this is the case, then we're presumably going to end up with a criminal trial. The fault in this case would presumably be with the contractor.

I dont see any suggestion contractors have done anything other than they were asked to do. If there was an economy job, that would presumably be down to the council, which most probably followed current guidelines and took the cheapest quote as it is obliged to.

The real problem for the government is that residents seem to have been complaining about fire safety for a long time. After refurbishment, it still burns down.

And then this plays into the issue that this was cheap housing for the poor which burnt down. And the general shortage of housing which means the poor are forced into housing no one else wants.

Coming after the recent terrorist attacks, this will bring into question the spending priorities which hire lots of intelligence officers, who mostly spent their time chasing people who turn out not to be terrorists, as compared to spending a bit more on non combustible insulation.

Terrorism is feared unduly.

Oh, and May seems to have once again suffered from not being willing to go and talk to ordinary people whereas Corbyn did.

 

[Drifterwood]

Latest post election poll;

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/15/majority-favour-pushing-brexit-many-are-tempted-so/

44% want it.

So, I'll say again, most people don't want Brexit.

 

[Drifterwood]

What are you on about? The poll shows 70% now supporting, more if you take out the don't knows.

44% want Brexit. I know that gives you a government of sorts, but it is not a majority. Some accept the referendum, don't take them to support brexit.

And please don't forget that support for the Tories and Brexit is literally dying. I find it strange to determine the future of a country on the views of those who have least stake in it.

 

[dandelion]

Interesting to ponder where the now 10% 'dont knows' would end up if there was another referendum vote today. Given that they have drifted to 'dont know' away from Leave, they are likely to continue their desertion of leave and we could already be in a situation where this apparent polling equal shares would translate into a vote to remain.

Incidentally, the buildings could have been clad in stainless steel panels instead of aluminium ones, which would have considerably improved their fire proofness (at a cost). What are the odds there is now going to be a massive program of redoing all this work?

 

[Drifterwood]

There is another interesting statistic from yougov, 45% of conservative remain supporters believe there will be no negative impact on the Uk from leaving the EU.

So that is the proportion of conservative leave, which is 68% of all conservatives, who are in for a shock. About 1/3 of conservative supporters are labouring under the delusion that brexit will be painless. This is the block who will change their vote when they discover they are wrong. Then there are the ones who are uncertain, who will also discover brexit has a cost.

These numbers beneath the surface are electoral poison waiting to be relased for the conservatives. That is why they do not want to leave the EU, because they know that if they do, they will be punished massively in the future.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...9pum7c5c4j/AnthonyResults_170613_Brexit_W.pdf

That will be the intellectually challenged ones who have been indoctrinated by the Mail and Express over the last forty years.

 

[southeastone]

44% want it.

So, I'll say again, most people don't want Brexit.

erm let me get my calculator out (not diane abbots one) as one of the "intellectually challenged" and work it out;

44 + 26 = 70% for brexit

21 remain

which "people don't want brexit", the 3 quarters or the quarter?

 

[185248]

erm let me get my calculator out (not diane abbots one) as one of the "intellectually challenged" and work it out;

44 + 26 = 70% for brexit

21 remain

which "people don't want brexit", the 3 quarters or the quarter?

I like figures, 1+1 will equal 11...2+2 = 4 or 22...depending on perspective. When it comes to politics. Nothing really adds up

In any case. It seems to be quite divided. All one can say is time will tell.

 

[Jason]

I like figures, 1+1 will equal 11...2+2 = 4 or 22...depending on perspective. When it comes to politics. Nothing really adds up

In any case. It seems to be quite divided. All one can say is time will tell.

The UK is deeply divided right now. The expectation was that the election would see the nation coming together. Well that didn't happen. Indeed it seems to have opened up a new sort of division.

I think we are probably looking at a Queen's Speech being passed (by perhaps a majority of 14 votes) and Brexit negotiations starting. The biggest event might actually be the 1st July mass street protest that Labour is organising. However I think through the summer (parliament recesses 20th July) the political issues will go quiet. Who wants to talk politics when the sun is shining? In the autumn the Conservatives have to articulate a clear way forward.

 

[185248]

The UK is deeply divided right now. The expectation was that the election would see the nation coming together. Well that didn't happen. Indeed it seems to have opened up a new sort of division.

I think we are probably looking at a Queen's Speech being passed (by perhaps a majority of 14 votes) and Brexit negotiations starting. The biggest event might actually be the 1st July mass street protest that Labour is organising. However I think through the summer (parliament recesses 20th July) the political issues will go quiet. Who wants to talk politics when the sun is shining? In the autumn the Conservatives have to articulate a clear way forward.

Jase, what creeps me out a little is your dependence on a Monarch. You mention the Queen in quite a few of your posts.

The Queen is a person like you and I. The only power she has is from the past generations granted to her. Nothing else.

If for some reason you hope to bring forth a new and almighty hope it will not be through Monarchy. Every European nation, just about, had a Monarchy, very few remain. Why? Well, why?

The world has reached a point where information is shared equally, nearly equally between the rich and the poor.

It's not difficult to comprehend that for the first time in centuries the poor find themselves on an equal footing with the rich, when it comes to how the rich hide their money in TAX HAVENS.

Yet conservatives still dangle the carrot, that poor and middle income people still have the time left to hide their money in tax havens too.

Yes, the UK is deeply divided. Because you still have prospective governments still thinking like Dinosaurs from either side.

All people want Jase, is for our governments to work together. You know why? Because we are being continually told by them we face a faceless enemy......Yet, we all know War has changed, but our governments do not unite us, they divide us. I hear no voice that Unites. No, All I hear is greed, excuses and bullshit.

As you do, as all far right, and far left parties do. AStop listening to your Party bbullshit, get out in the street and ask YOUR people. Your fellow people and citizens, from all walks of life. Stop reading polls, stop reading the news and newspapers.

Walk and talk. But no, you prefer to read bullshit that your young people do not understand. Ha, like they can't google anything they want.

Yet, get on a bus, shake their hand, look in their eye and be honest. They will remember it for life. You do not have to be anyone special, or a member of the royal family to remember that.

When someone faces you, or delivers you the truth, for some reason, you remember it.

 

[Jason]

@vibrationzzz - its called The Queen's Speech. I can't do anything about the name! This is the document that sets out the legislative programme for a new government, written by that prospective government. MPs then vote on it. If it goes through we have a government. If not we don't. If this happens it gets messy - in theory the same prospective government can have a go two weeks later, but if this also falls it goes to the opposition. If they fail we go to a new election.

The Queen's Speech is next Wednesday. The theatre is that the Queen takes a hostage (I'm not joking!) who is imprisoned at Buckingham Palace as a security for her safe return. She enters the House of Lords, and her messenger summons the Commons to attend in the House of Lords. They slam the door in the face of the messenger. After some delay the commoners enter the House of Lords (as many as can physically squeeze in, as the room isn't big enough). The Queen sits on the throne, gets out the speech, finds her glasses, and reads it. The speech is formally accepted with the words: "Most Gracious Sovereign, We, Your Majesty's most dutiful and loyal subjects, the Lords Spiritual and Temporal in Parliament assembled, beg leave to thank Your Majesty for the most gracious Speech which Your Majesty has addressed to both Houses of Parliament." The Queen makes a quick exit and puts her feet up.

The debate takes several days. At the end is a vote. This is the vote that the government absolutely must win. It is a vote for the dead and dying. In a 650 seat parliament there will be someone who is ill - nonetheless they attend and go through the voting lobbies.

The Queen does have real power in the UK. Her power is exercised through the Privy Council. The Cabinet (the PM and ministers) is a sub-section of the Privy Council. The armed forces answer to the Queen, not the PM.

Yesterday Prince Andrew made a speech about Brexit, in effect urging people to get behind it and see it as a "cup half full" opportunity. This is most unusual as the Royals don't usually get involved in political issues. However it is in effect sending out a message, and very many will have heard this.

 

[185248]

@vibrationzzz - its called The Queen's Speech. I can't do anything about the name! This is the document that sets out the legislative programme for a new government, written by that prospective government. MPs then vote on it. If it goes through we have a government. If not we don't. If this happens it gets messy - in theory the same prospective government can have a go two weeks later, but if this also falls it goes to the opposition. If they fail we go to a new election.

The Queen's Speech is next Wednesday. The theatre is that the Queen takes a hostage (I'm not joking!) who is imprisoned at Buckingham Palace as a security for her safe return. She enters the House of Lords, and her messenger summons the Commons to attend in the House of Lords. They slam the door in the face of the messenger. After some delay the commoners enter the House of Lords (as many as can physically squeeze in, as the room isn't big enough). The Queen sits on the throne, gets out the speech, finds her glasses, and reads it. The speech is formally accepted with the words: "Most Gracious Sovereign, We, Your Majesty's most dutiful and loyal subjects, the Lords Spiritual and Temporal in Parliament assembled, beg leave to thank Your Majesty for the most gracious Speech which Your Majesty has addressed to both Houses of Parliament." The Queen makes a quick exit and puts her feet up.

The debate takes several days. At the end is a vote. This is the vote that the government absolutely must win. It is a vote for the dead and dying. In a 650 seat parliament there will be someone who is ill - nonetheless they attend and go through the voting lobbies.

The Queen does have real power in the UK. Her power is exercised through the Privy Council. The Cabinet (the PM and ministers) is a sub-section of the Privy Council. The armed forces answer to the Queen, not the PM.

Yesterday Prince Andrew made a speech about Brexit, in effect urging people to get behind it and see it as a "cup half full" opportunity. This is most unusual as the Royals don't usually get involved in political issues. However it is in effect sending out a message, and very many will have heard this.

We have a conservative here, who is the Prime Minister. He is a staunch advocate for an Australian republic. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-...is-support-for-an-australian-republic/8129764
The Queen is aging, she will be replaced.

You do not seem to say by who? Son, or Grandson?

Be whomever takes the reigns, they will not have the answers if they do not get on the bus and listen.

The Monarchy is dying jase. Unless conservatives get their act together. They are too.

 

[Jason]

We have a conservative here, who is the Prime Minister. He is a staunch advocate for an Australian republic. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-...is-support-for-an-australian-republic/8129764
The Queen is aging, she will be replaced.

You do not seem to say by who? Son, or Grandson?

Be whomever takes the reigns, they will not have the answers if they do not get on the bus and listen.

The Monarchy is dying jase. Unless conservatives get their act together. They are too.

The heir is clear: Charles. However he's of retirement age. There is chatter that we might have a regency, ie Charles is titular king (of all the many kingdoms) but William is Prince Regent who actually does the job. Abdication is problematic in 101 ways. For starters it is supposed to be for the individual AND heirs. Then there's the problem of different systems for dealing with it in each kingdom.

I agree there are problems with Charles being king, which is I think why there is chatter about an alternative. The key consideration is whether whoever is on the throne can do the job. It seems that William can.

I don't know that monarchy is dying. Look at the problems of the US election of a president. Trump is particularly divisive, but it is hard to see who could ever unify the nation. Monarchy provides unity and stability. With William at the helm we should be looking at another 50 years of stability.

Issues for Australia are inevitably different.

 

[185248]

The heir is clear: Charles. However he's of retirement age. There is chatter that we might have a regency, ie Charles is titular king (of all the many kingdoms) but William is Prince Regent who actually does the job. Abdication is problematic in 101 ways. For starters it is supposed to be for the individual AND heirs. Then there's the problem of different systems for dealing with it in each kingdom.

I agree there are problems with Charles being king, which is I think why there is chatter about an alternative. The key consideration is whether whoever is on the throne can do the job. It seems that William can.

I don't know that monarchy is dying. Look at the problems of the US election of a president. Trump is particularly divisive, but it is hard to see who could ever unify the nation. Monarchy provides unity and stability. With William at the helm we should be looking at another 50 years of stability.

Issues for Australia are inevitably different.

Yes, we are long way from the UK, but we are very closely linked for obvious reasons. We receive little help here from you guys in repairing wounds which were left from hundreds of years ago.

Yes, Scotland, Britain, Ireland, all those nations in which made the UK what it is.

Yet it is difficult for you to actually trace your beginnings back to the original.

This is the problem, well it is not a problem, but the indigenous Aussies here go back 60,000 years. Way before your or our royal family.

I really don't think you get it jase. It has become not a focus on politics, it is by those who listen. I think you do. The royal families in most generations will barely see out one more generation. Why? Because people's lifestyle is reducing. The world is becoming smaller, science can not keep up with our populations growth and needs.

Also, there are becoming less, and less places for people to display their wealth,.

One thing history dictates jase, always will. Never flaunt your wealth.

You wish to remain healthy and wealthy....be a bit wise.

 

[dandelion]

The UK is deeply divided right now.

The nation seems to be coming together against Brexit...

Also coming together against people who cannot sort out fire regulations. Protestors were storming Kensington town hall. Someone on any questions suggesting the dispossessed should be put up in kensington luxury apartments. I see a post elsewhere there has even been polling on it, with 2:1 in support of requisitioning empty apartments. Crowds geering May.

Calls for another election!

 

[southeastone]

The nation seems to be coming together in favour of Brexit....

Crowds of retarded Neanderthals wearing masks terrify ordinary working reception and office staff in a show of ignorance and civil disobedience, a pointless show of violence whipped up by the same idiot youth on social media who tried thankfully unsuccessfully to get corbyn into number 10. May rightly pledges £5 million to help families of fire victims.

Calls for stability and backing of the elected government in difficult times.