he does have a chance but is slim especially since Scotland is lost to Labour for foreseeable future.I agree till we have left I don't trust any of main party leader's to leave. If May back down on Brexit will be a disaster for her party for sure.
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If and thankfully a big if corbyn gets in Brexit will be a disaster for sure, you only have to read the manifesto, he WILL deliver access to the single market etc, this as the eu have already stated can only be achieved if we agree to all their points plus pay the divorce bill, corbyn will accept this and pay the bill, more financial chaos to add to the rest labour would bring.
Why would she back down, BREXIT is going to immortalise her, and the woman has more money than God. Whichever way the result goes, will not affect her retirement. Self seeing bitch.
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The pollsters and political commentators do not understand what is going on at the moment. The only thing I've heard that made any sense at all is that the UK polls were well out in 2010, wildly out in 2015 (more than double the margin of error), well out for the Brexit referendum, and that we could be seeing UK polls even more wrong than in 2015. Clearly I would like this to be the case (as surely would any sane person). However I'm lost to know what else could account for this.
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May is not one of the super-rich. She has her salary, and a PM doesn't do badly, but for Donald Trump it would be small change.
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It's possible to argue about the costs and benefits of remain or leave. However that's old - we've already made a decision on this. The choice is now between Brexit or a cancelled Brexit. The costs of a cancelled Brexit would be far higher than Brexit. If it is the economic argument that matters to you then it has to be to make Brexit work.
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And a fourth poll:
CON 46%
LAB 32%
The average of the four is CON 45% LAB 35%. This gives an overall majority of around 80. It's amazing what a difference just a percent or two makes.
about the only way it is likely to immortalised her is if she presided over the biggest economic crash in uk history. If it goes well, she won't get huge credit for that, it will have been farages victory.
Brexit is not going well. The only reason for an election now is because it is not going well. May knows much more about how it is going than we do because hundreds of civil servants have been planning how to make it work for 9 months. They have told her and she realised in 3 years time she would be presiding over a disaster.
isn't it. The highest lead now is the same as the lowest when polling began. The variation seems to be because pollsters are having difficulty estimating the labour vote, whereas they are being more consistent with the tory one.
we haven't made a decision on anything. That is what is about to be negotiated. The cost of cancelled brexit would be...nothing.
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Sorry old fruit but I think you are totally wrong.
Millions have already been spent on lawyers fees, off ice staff and general getting together of the facts, not only has a vast amount of money been spent on this side of the channel but the EU has poured even more in in an attempt to obfuscate proceedings - and should as you suggest be cancelled Brexit then without a doubt the EU would demand compensation - and the UK would be left languishing in a corner, on the naughty step, punished for having the gall to even leave "home".
Can you trust the EU - NO!
corbyn harbinger of peace. Talking to the Ira was the right thing to do. It stopped the bombs happening.
It is the right thing to do. All wars eventually end in dialogue and agreement or they do not end at all.
I'd say the enemies of the uk are those prolonging and expanding these wars. It's quite telling that Boris Johnson was perfectly happy to say uk foreign policy had contributed to the terrorist threat when labour were in government, but denies it now his party is in power. Corbyn is a one man band trying to stop the wars.
If it goes badly will mean they will lose million's of vote's and make them unelectable IMO. She's not that rich she's a wealthy women with her Husband yes with several million in asset's but not more money then god lol!
Head's of IRA have said they never heard of him during peace process so sound's like his trying to take credit for something he had little do with.
Labour seem's to of peaked I think tories will get a big majority just not the historic one they wanted can't see Labour getting over 35% right now.
Prediction as of today roughly
Con-45% 390 seats
Labour- 30% 175 seat's
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This poisonous idea needs to be confronted.
The IRA realised that they could not win through terror and therefore decided to embrace political means. Brave people including Mo Mowlam and Ian Paisley talked with them. We have the peace process.
Such brave people must not be confused with Coward Corbyn who is cheer leader for the IRA. He supports the IRA above the UK. A former IRA member says that Corbyn's support for the IRA was more important to them than the supply of weapons. There are people dead today, murdered by the IRA, who would be alive had Corbyn not given his support to the IRA.
Today we have the evil of ISIS that must be defeated. We cannot negotiate with ISIS. We cannot say that burying people alive is not very nice but nonetheless they are our friends. Rather the first stage is that they are defeated, as the IRA were in effect defeated. Then in nations including Syria and Iraq there will be a need for brave people to negotiate with people who hold extreme views, though I think never actually with ISIS.
Corbyn must be called out for the Coward who supports terrorists, the opposite of the brave people who find solutions. A vote for Corbyn is a vote in support of terrorism.
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I think you are probably right. This would certainly be a clear working majority.
(For those not from the UK, the UK parliament is 650. In theory 325 gives a majority, as one of the MPs is the Speaker who does not vote. The figures can be tweaked. Sinn Fein (probably 4 MPs) refuse to sit, so in effect the parliament is 646, with 323 a majority. The Unionists (DUP and UUP, probably 10 seats) could not possibly support Corbyn (cheer leader for IRA) and would support Conservatives. The bottom line is that with 313 seats May would form a government, and even with less might attempt to form a government. This is the bottom line.)
The overwhelming view right now is that no-one can explain why the polls have shifted as they have. It is the fastest poll shift of this magnitude ever. The Conservatives manifesto launch wasn't good (but it wasn't that bad either); for that matter the Labour manifesto wasn't particularly well launched. Somehow the Manchester bomb seems to have caused a surge in Labour support, and no-one seriously understands this. May has handled the emergency well. Corbyn is of course the friend of terrorists. The warped message seems to be that we must concede to ISIS, and that Corbyn is the best one to do this.
I think:
* We've passed peak-Corbyn. I hope anyway. We've 10 days for the fight back.
* There is something so weird about the polls I'm just not sure what to make of them. They were of course right for the local elections. One idea is that we've got some new polling error that has crept in.
It's nail-biting stuff. If Corbyn does get into power the UK has surrendered, its spirit to terrorism and its sovereignty to the EU. The immediate financial crisis would mean the UK would need an IMF bailout. The required austerity would be pretty awful.
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The pound is already falling on the news that labour have taken a rise in the polls, the markets know what corbyn would bring to the economy, disaster!
that isnt true, there are some very obvious reasons. UKIP had something like 15% support and most of it has switched to conservative. Big rise from their score at the last election.
Seeing this, remainers have swiched to labour. Initially they had switched to lib because they are the most pro remain party, and that was great for by-elections. But in a full election voters know a vote for lib is more likely to let in a leave supporting tory, so better to vote labour. And so remain have swithched to Labour. The last score I saw was about 45% each support for Remain and leave now.
Remain and leave got approximatley half the votes each, slight lead for leave. The most recent yougov poll put labour on 28% and conservative on 31%. The previous one had labour 30%, conservative 32%. Pretty close. Could virtually be a mirror of what people think about Brexit, leave just ahead.
The headline polls gross up this score by elimintaing people they think will not vote or dont know who to vote for, and generally adding a bit to the tories because they think their people more likely to turn out on the day.
Apart from brexit, Labour produced a manifesto which people generally like, and the conservatives one that people generally do not. This has compensated somewhat for the fact they generally prefer May. During the campaign, support for May as a leader has been slowly falling, and for Corbyn slowly risisng. He has performed better while campaigning.
It is a most unusual election.
Labour have continued to close the gap, but we dont know if this was because of the manifestos, or whether the bomb made a difference either way. Probably polling did continue privately, so if what you are saying is that private conservatives polling says this was so, well thats interesting.
The public believes both leaders handled the emergency well, and Corbyn scored better on this than he normally does in comparisons with May.
The message I got was that we will never stop terrorism if we continue the foreign policy we have now, of interfering in foreign wars and picking sides there. The other side will always see us as an enemy if we do. Obviously. The British empire had a very different approach to wars, which involved occupying a country and staying there afterwards forever. Modern practice seems to be to send in troops, stir everyone up and then leave them to fight it out. This tends to make them into enemies.
the most obvious problem is the big number of people who have recorded as 'dont know'. about 1/4. These are left out of the headline numbers, but there are loads of them and they are poorly studied by pollsters. A pollster is simply asking who you would vote for now, and doesnt care about these people. But because there are a lot of them, even a relative few making up their minds could change the result.
I think there is a good argument that May wants to lose this election. Brexit will indeed cause a financial crisis and if conservatives are in power, it could destroy them. Thus it might make long term sense to hand over to Corbyn. if the conservatives do win, at least they have paved the way for the massive austerity and tax hikes which they believe will be necessary. That was the point of the otherwise rather strange manifesto. They know what is coming.
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