Snap uk election..

[Jason]

On polls:

the most obvious problem is the big number of people who have recorded as 'don't know'. about 1/4. These are left out of the headline numbers, but there are loads of them and they are poorly studied by pollsters. A pollster is simply asking who you would vote for now, and doesn't care about these people. But because there are a lot of them, even a relative few making up their minds could change the result.

A point in a @dandelion post I can actually agree with. I think you are right that the pollsters just don't know how to deal with this category.

Other nations are getting their polls right. As soon as the French presidential election ended the pollsters flashed up the results and the Macron supporters started to celebrate. Le Pen conceded within the hour. In effect everyone believed the polls. By contrast UK polls are haywire. The day-of-vote Brexit poll (and all the polls by the finance companies) got it wrong. 2010 Westminster polls were wrong, and 2015 Westminster were wrong by an almost unbelievable margin. Cameron had put zero thought into a victory speech!

Of course very many don't knows become don't votes. However there probably is a phenomenon where Conservative voters won't speak to a pollster and just say "don't know". This is the "shy Tory" phenomenon. Yes, I know pollsters try to correct for this, but it is difficult. There's also the different propensities to turn out and vote. Traditionally Conservative voters are more likely to actually vote.

We have the recent council elections which give a lot of real votes and should give a firm guide. There has been no political event of great magnitude since then. Whatever the strengths and weaknesses of the two main parties campaign there really hasn't been some knock out blow from either. Rather there seems to have been some sort of Manchester factor, and I don't think either party can articulate this. For example there is a logical coherence in the view that Corbyn claims that cuddling terrorists is the way to keep us safe and we should cuddle ISIS, and therefore people are backing Corbyn, but the media haven't been able to find a single person who is putting forward this view. The only thing I've heard that makes any sense is the psychological view, based on the scenario of the battered wife. Because the battered wife is hurt turns to the person who will do her maximum damage, her husband. Because the nation is hurt by Manchester the nation turns to the person who will do maximum damage, Corbyn.

We will of course see the answer. We will see the polls move (or not move) in the next ten days and we will see the election result. However I do wonder if right now the polls are simply wrong.

 

[852147]

The pound is already falling on the news that labour have taken a rise in the polls, the markets know what corbyn would bring to the economy, disaster!

Yes market's will panic if a lifelong socialist become pm and a marxist/communist chancellor of the exchequer would be a disaster for British economy. That's why I don't understand people who voted remain for business and job's are now voting for the most anti business and private sector job candidate in decades madness!

 

[852147]

On polls:

A point in a @dandelion post I can actually agree with. I think you are right that the pollsters just don't know how to deal with this category.

Other nations are getting their polls right. As soon as the French presidential election ended the pollsters flashed up the results and the Macron supporters started to celebrate. Le Pen conceded within the hour. In effect everyone believed the polls. By contrast UK polls are haywire. The day-of-vote Brexit poll (and all the polls by the finance companies) got it wrong. 2010 Westminster polls were wrong, and 2015 Westminster were wrong by an almost unbelievable margin. Cameron had put zero thought into a victory speech!

Of course very many don't knows become don't votes. However there probably is a phenomenon where Conservative voters won't speak to a pollster and just say "don't know". This is the "shy Tory" phenomenon. Yes, I know pollsters try to correct for this, but it is difficult. There's also the different propensities to turn out and vote. Traditionally Conservative voters are more likely to actually vote.

We have the recent council elections which give a lot of real votes and should give a firm guide. There has been no political event of great magnitude since then. Whatever the strengths and weaknesses of the two main parties campaign there really hasn't been some knock out blow from either. Rather there seems to have been some sort of Manchester factor, and I don't think either party can articulate this. For example there is a logical coherence in the view that Corbyn claims that cuddling terrorists is the way to keep us safe and we should cuddle ISIS, and therefore people are backing Corbyn, but the media haven't been able to find a single person who is putting forward this view. The only thing I've heard that makes any sense is the psychological view, based on the scenario of the battered wife. Because the battered wife is hurt turns to the person who will do her maximum damage, her husband. Because the nation is hurt by Manchester the nation turns to the person who will do maximum damage, Corbyn.

We will of course see the answer. We will see the polls move (or not move) in the next ten days and we will see the election result. However I do wonder if right now the polls are simply wrong.

I agree shy tory vote normally mean's tories are 2 or 3 even 4 percent higher then poll's suggest also in many area's being loud and proud Labour is fine but if your say hey I vote conservative your treated like some sort of Nazi so they would rather not say.

I don't know where this Manchester bombing has caused rise in poll's has come from the poll's for Labour peaked before Manchester and seem to be dropping or settling lower in fact as of most recent poll's. Any how there is a tiny chance they can win a majority it's more just stopping the bleeding to conservatives. Even thou best they can hope for is a small tory majority and all Corbyn has succeeded in doing is extend Conservative rule for two more year's

 

[dandelion]

For example there is a logical coherence in the view that Corbyn claims that cuddling terrorists is the way to keep us safe

No, he didnt say that. I fancy he said exactly what i would agree with. if you intend to fight a war you must use overwhelming force, or dont bother. The current policy is neither one nor the other. We fiddle about a bit, not decisivly enough for the side we back to win. The other side gets riled with us and attacks the Uk where it knows it hurts, right here.

 

[dandelion]

I just caught another interesting comment about May, from a guest on 'this week'. They were discussing May's public appearances and sometimes stilted approach. The guest said, 'it is almost as if she is embarassed by what she has to say'.

I think that is exactly right and is something I have said before. The clergyman's daughter is very unhappy having to lie to the nation. That is why she has promised to do her best to deliver a successful deal. Not promised to deliver a successful deal, because she knows it is almost certainly imposible. Probably it is that tiny bit of doubt that it might just be possible, somehow, is the only thing which allows her to continue as leader, and not tell the nation the truth.

 

[southeastone]

I just caught another interesting comment about May, from a guest on 'this week'. They were discussing May's public appearances and sometimes stilted approach. The guest said, 'it is almost as if she is embarassed by what she has to say'.

I think that is exactly right and is something I have said before. The clergyman's daughter is very unhappy having to lie to the nation. That is why she has promised to do her best to deliver a successful deal. Not promised to deliver a successful deal, because she knows it is almost certainly imposible. Probably it is that tiny bit of doubt that it might just be possible, somehow, is the only thing which allows her to continue as leader, and not tell the nation the truth.

So she is the same as Corbyn who just refuses to answer questions where he knows we (and his party) won't like the answer?

 

[852147]

I just caught another interesting comment about May, from a guest on 'this week'. They were discussing May's public appearances and sometimes stilted approach. The guest said, 'it is almost as if she is embarassed by what she has to say'.

I think that is exactly right and is something I have said before. The clergyman's daughter is very unhappy having to lie to the nation. That is why she has promised to do her best to deliver a successful deal. Not promised to deliver a successful deal, because she knows it is almost certainly imposible. Probably it is that tiny bit of doubt that it might just be possible, somehow, is the only thing which allows her to continue as leader, and not tell the nation the truth.

This is all opinion not fact a successful deal can be delivered it's not a fact it will be a disaster just your opinion.

 

[Jason]

I don't think May is a natural on television. She doesn't have the sort of confidence of Cameron or Blair, and she certainly doesn't have the unflappable bluster of Boris Johnson. This does impact on the effectiveness of the campaign. However I want - surely we all want - someone who can do the job.

I'm convinced May believes everything she says. Her nervousness is just her.

 

[dandelion]

... not fact a successful deal can be delivered....

i dont think you meant that, but I agree.

[QUOTE="Jason, post: 6503539, member: 1465"I'm convinced May believes everything she says. Her nervousness is just her.[/QUOTE] Someone suggested in the TV debate that it might be just nerves, and it was rejected. They contrasted how natural she seemed talking about the bombing and what she was doing about that, compared to how stilted she seemed presenting conservative policy. hence she believed in what she was doing to make people safe, but not what she had been given to present as policy.You could tell from her body langauge she was lying.

I see the attacks on Corbyn have now changed into attacks on Dianne Abbott. I dont doubt she will do as good a job as most of them. Andrew Marr had her sitting in his studio next to Amber Rudd (or cut together) and the two looked like a pair of police mugshots. Real villains.

I notice a contrast between Abbott and Rudd. Abbott said she would be a home secretary mindful of the needs of her constituents. Rudd said the security services know best and should not have to explain themselves.

Rudd is expressing the view that the security services can handle it, and she will supply all they need. Yet the security people themselves have said it is impossible to track the total number of suspects. The only way to stop such attacks is to stop people wanting to commit them. Rudd is wrong, they cannot all be stopped by security services here.

 

[Jason]

Diane Abbott has previously claimed that a successful terrorist outrage by the IRA against the UK is a "victory". Her support was for the IRA. She now says she has changed her hair style. I kid readers not! She said that over the years she had changed her hairstyle, and implicitly her views too.

Now if she has changed her views this is a personal journey towards redemption, and suggests she is in a better place. However:
1) do any of us believe her? Her recent actions are consistent with putting the UK second.
2) even if she is genuine she cannot command respect as home secretary. There is no way back into public respectability from such a view. You cannot see your country as the enemy and work to destroy it, then expect to go on to do one of the top government jobs.

Abbott has one of the most Islamic constituencies in the UK. Her comments around putting her constituents first seem worrying. As a constituency MP she should represent her constituents. As home secretary she should represent the UK.

 

[dandelion]

1) do any of us believe her? Her recent actions are consistent with putting the UK second.

Just where do you get this Jason? Of course she stands for the interests of the people who vote for her. I am very worried you think any MP should not stand for the interests of their constituents. Perhaps that is why we are in the Brexit mess we are in now. So many MPs seem to place their careers before what is right. You seem to think that MPs should place the interest of their party above that of the people. Ah, but you do represent the conservative party.

2) even if she is genuine she cannot command respect as home secretary.

Which home secretary does? I see she opposed the Iraq war and opposed Saudi interventionism. Both of which have been leading to instability, and of course terrorist attacks on us. Sounds as though she has been doing much better as a back bencher to protect the security of UK than the people occupying the home secretaries job. Terrorist attacks will not be stopped by any amount of spending on home security forces or curtailment of our rights. That is the way to impoverish us and destroy the free lifestyle which is what we all like.

You cannot see your country as the enemy and work to destroy it, then expect to go on to do one of the top government jobs.

She voted in ways which would have probably stopped the manchester bomber had she carried the day. Meanwhile May and the tories are working to destroy the trading network which has made the UK one of the richest nations in the world over the last 40 years. It is the current conservatives who will destroy us. Bombs frankly have a negligible impact on any of our lives. If we leave the EU, it will hurt everyone.

Abbott has one of the most Islamic constituencies in the UK. Her comments around putting her constituents first seem worrying.

Dear me. Didn't Adolf Hitler say much the same things you are saying, except about Jews? You have denied Brexit has anything to do with racism, but it obviously does. So foolish too, because we shall end up with a fortress EU excluding the UK whereas we are supposedly embarking on free trade with any country which will have us. Next will be freedom of trade and freedom of movement with Libya and Syria, because no other nation will have us! We are heading for becoming international beggars.

The EU is going to become more protectionist, and we will be outside it. The US will switch its concentration to getting on well with the EU, because obviously it is what is important in Europe, not the UK. Our only value is as an EU member, a spy inside the EU camp. The trans atlantic security partnership will become a US-EU partnership. The UK is heading for international exclusion form everything. You saw the fuss over the US releasing photos from manchester which it considered to be perfectly harmless. Whatever their faults, they do not believe in secrecy and the police state the way we do.

 

[Jason]

Abbott should not be standing for election as an MP. Her personal hatred for the UK is such that she cannot honestly swear an oath of allegiance to the crown and therefore sit as an MP. I suppose in theory she could do a Sinn Fein - get elected but not sit.

Her constituency is one where anti-UK sentiment is high, and where Abbott's racism (she's racist against Jews and whites, as is Corbyn) does strike a cord. She is supported by the mechanisms of the Labour Party. It's a pity Blair and Brown didn't kick her out (and Corbyn) as her views are not part of the traditional Labour Party. However Momentum has elevated her to the status of shadow home secretary and she aspires to be Home Secretary. We're facing the prospect of a an anti-whiteracist anti-Semite in one of the top jobs.

 

[Jason]

@dandelion, do you have any Jewish family or friends? There are many Jews in the UK frightened of the prospect of the anti-Semitic party winning. Jews really have had the "what if?" conversation. No one expects the anti-Semitic party to win, but what if? Very many are talking of USA or Israel. Corbyn and Abbott's Labour is fostering anti-Semitism. No one is expecting Abbott to pass a law that Jews must wear yellow stars, but there would be a spirit of ignoring attacks on Jews.

@dandelion, do you have a white skin? It really shouldn't matter whether you're white, black or green and from Mars, but Corbyn and Abbott both display anti-white racism. I suppose it could be an interesting learning curve for the White population of the UK, but is it really right that any people should be the victims of institutional racism?

@dandelion, do you know anyone murdered by the IRA? Abbott supports the murderers. Corbyn is cheerleader for the terrorists.

@ Dandelion, do you know anyone caught up in the Manchester bombing? Or 7/7 or 9/11? As recently as 2014 Corbyn laid a wreath for an Islamic terrorist.

@dandelion, can you understand the fear that a Corbyn victory would create? The Holocaust is still in living memory. Germany got there by steps, and the first step was normalising anti-Semitism. Corbyn hates whites, which translated into a whole lot of measures against his political opponents. Presumably if he wins in 2017 all subsequent elections will be cancelled, which is the view of his shadow Chancellor McDonnell. Presumably the UK will start negotiating with ISIS. Maybe we should ask them to lash women with only half as many strokes of the whip, or bury alive half the number of people.

I react to Corbyn et al with utter revulsion, with nausea. These are people doing evil things who have the potential to destroy our society. I do not understand how a single person can vote Labour. The Conservatives have struggled against the description of being the nasty party. Labour are the evil party.

 

[852147]

I don't think May is a natural on television. She doesn't have the sort of confidence of Cameron or Blair, and she certainly doesn't have the unflappable bluster of Boris Johnson. This does impact on the effectiveness of the campaign. However I want - surely we all want - someone who can do the job.

I'm convinced May believes everything she says. Her nervousness is just her.

Yeh I agree apparently she shakes before speeches she's not uber confident in debates like Cameron was she is more ordinary then Cameron who seemed to perfect to a lot of people.I agree Boris Johnson can say the most idiotic thing's and laugh it of and become more popular Corbyn is so lucky his facing May and not Boris would not even be close if Corbyn vs Boris it would be a record landslide I reckon.

 

[852147]

@dandelion, do you have any Jewish family or friends? There are many Jews in the UK frightened of the prospect of the anti-Semitic party winning. Jews really have had the "what if?" conversation. No one expects the anti-Semitic party to win, but what if? Very many are talking of USA or Israel. Corbyn and Abbott's Labour is fostering anti-Semitism. No one is expecting Abbott to pass a law that Jews must wear yellow stars, but there would be a spirit of ignoring attacks on Jews.

@dandelion, do you have a white skin? It really shouldn't matter whether you're white, black or green and from Mars, but Corbyn and Abbott both display anti-white racism. I suppose it could be an interesting learning curve for the White population of the UK, but is it really right that any people should be the victims of institutional racism?

@dandelion, do you know anyone murdered by the IRA? Abbott supports the murderers. Corbyn is cheerleader for the terrorists.

@ Dandelion, do you know anyone caught up in the Manchester bombing? Or 7/7 or 9/11? As recently as 2014 Corbyn laid a wreath for an Islamic terrorist.

@dandelion, can you understand the fear that a Corbyn victory would create? The Holocaust is still in living memory. Germany got there by steps, and the first step was normalising anti-Semitism. Corbyn hates whites, which translated into a whole lot of measures against his political opponents. Presumably if he wins in 2017 all subsequent elections will be cancelled, which is the view of his shadow Chancellor McDonnell. Presumably the UK will start negotiating with ISIS. Maybe we should ask them to lash women with only half as many strokes of the whip, or bury alive half the number of people.

I react to Corbyn et al with utter revulsion, with nausea. These are people doing evil things who have the potential to destroy our society. I do not understand how a single person can vote Labour. The Conservatives have struggled against the description of being the nasty party. Labour are the evil party.

While I don't agree with all of this some of thing's coming out of today's Labour terrifies me and a lot of people I know like my family always voted Labour and we won't be this time as we consider Corbyn and his type to be to far left and some of his view's are scary also I think he would make a terrible PM the worst in decades his totally incompetent and most of all let's be honest not very bright.

 

[dandelion]

I'm beginning to think conservative posters have been ordered to post so over the top to deliberately scare off voters. The campaign to lose the election isn't going well enough so they are trying to become the insane party.

There is some logic in labour senior people not appearing in public if they do not want to associate with corbyn. But there are no conservatives appearing, and when they do they simply contradict each other.

Time to come clean. They know brexit will be an utter disaster and are trying to palm it off onto labour.

 

[Jason]

I'm beginning to think conservative posters have been ordered to post so over the top to deliberately scare off voters. The campaign to lose the election isn't going well enough so they are trying to become the insane party.

I cannot see how anyone can avoid emotional posts. Issues around covering care costs or winter fuel payments or health costs or police costs are challenges for any government. There are costs and there are priorities and ways of raising the funds. These are all political arguments and can be debated calmly.

Corbyn is different. He supports the IRA against the UK government, supports Argentina against the UK, opposes anti-terrorist legislation. His party will renew Trident but Corbyn won't and anyway wouldn't use it. He wants to disband MI5. Corbyn is close to saying things which should get him put in prison or an asylum.

 

[rbkwp]

UK: TV audience grills Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn ahead of vote

Published on May 29, 2017
UK: TV audience grills Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn ahead of vote

British Prime Minister Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, her rival in the upcoming election, faced questions from a live television audience on Monday.

Britain's exit from the EU dominated many of the exchanges ahead of the June 8 vote, with the candidates offering sharply different visions for the so-called Brexit.

May was heavily criticised over her party's curbing of funding for healthcare and educational institutions.

 

[dandelion]

If May back down on Brexit will be a disaster for her party for sure.

which is precisely why they might want to lose this election.

The campaign has been a bit of a test of what people think about brexit. If the tories had held on to their big lead, it would imply the nation isn't too concerned about brexit. But the more they have lost support the more clear it must be for them that they would not have wanted to stay on in government pushing brexit through.

They had a perfectly good majority to do this. The election has allowed them a way to escape responsibility for brexit without backtracking and upsetting voters.

 

[dandelion]

Issues around covering care costs or winter fuel payments or health costs or police costs are challenges for any government. There are costs and there are priorities and ways of raising the funds.

indeed. Right now we are choosing whether to throw away a huge amount of money which will be the cost of going through with Brexit, or spending that money on things like education and health. The conservatives have reasoned they cannot afford the political cost of a hard brexit without overwhelming voter support but also they cannot afford the political cost of simply announcing they are not going through with it.

hence the need for the election.